Telecommunications Ecosystems

A peek into the future of

- Technology

- Market

- Business

roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it

Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-November 2008

Evolution: Bio vs Tech&Mkt Ecosystems

From Convergence to Variety

My View of Communications in 2015

Telecommunications Ecosystems

The Innovation Game

Bacteria…

Energy

Innovation: for how long?

The Pace of Innovation

Thresholds and the rules of the Game

Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem

MarketMarket

AmbientAmbient

TechTech

Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010

02468

1012141618

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21

k

n(k)

Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem

EvolutionRandom + Selection Creativity + Market

SuccessEnv.Share + variations Market share + release

Internal CompetitionDynamic Equilibrium Dynamic Equilibrium

External CompetitionNew Configurations New Value Chains

Evolution: bio vs Tech& Mkt Ecosystem

No Return thresholdsLocal Optimum Production Process

Energy ConsumptionAdvantage of the small

Economic Efficiency

DiscontinuitySpeciation Displacement

Cross FeedbackFood Chains Value Chains

From Convergence to Variety

2010 2020

SSD

1 TB

200 TB

10s TB

50 ns

Burst vs Streaming

Bit/Vid Torrent Down vs Up

Distribution Chain

Sticker Energy Control

From Convergence to Variety

Processing anywhere

Low power cons/diss

Ultra capacity “fibred

appliances”

Commodity

Real time rendering

Ambient awareness

2010 2020

1c GFlop

100 TFlop

100s PFlop

0.2% 0.001%

2Tbps Interc. fabric

Gbps Interc. F. 100s’Gbps Interc. F.WperGflop

28 Qbit100 Qbit

2010

2020

2010

?

Smart M.

From Convergence to Variety

?Mining

IntN

WISP

FUTURE CENTRE

A peek into tomorrow’s ecosystems

Telecommunications 2015-A technology view

Enabled by a varieties of infrastructures Smaller and smaller cells for wireless drops HWN Fiber core extending to the very edges Data center rather than Switching center

based Burst rather than streaming (but for voice) 100 times todays traffic

COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

Telecommunications 2015-A technology view

Make-Believe Interfaces- 4k video (human resolution)- tactile sensation (silk, rough, wet…)

Unlimited local storage (TB handheld) Flexible, programmable sensors Context awareness Metadata Supercrunchers – statistical analyses

Edge Technology:

Telecommunications 2015-A user view

Visual Personalised Contextualised No distinction between People, Information,

Services Seamless fabric joining reality and Web Fading away of the Telephone Number Involving a variety of loosely coupled Actors

COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

Telecommunications 2015-A Business view

Physical connectivity as utility both few bigs and a multitude of small. Basically no space in between

Different biz models for Bigs and Small Flat rate on connectivity, both for w and wless Growing importance of top $ versus bottom $ Added connectivity value among apps Metadata as significant revenue stream

COMMUNICATIONS will BE:

My view of Communications in 2015

My view of Communications in 2015

My view of Communications in 2015

My view of Communications in 2015

The vineyard

Wine tasting

Buy!

Your diet

Wine History

My view of Communications in 2015

Technologies Sensors/AwarOptical Tags

Bar Codes/SemDNA Markers

Image LocalizRFID Print Elect

OBJECTS Detection SystemsNetwork Mirror

CarsHand readersCell Phones/Ca

Cell PhonesNFC

PERCEPTION

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies

OBJECTS

DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

PERCEPTION

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies

OBJECTS

DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

Ntw Pl/HostGoogle

Snapfish

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

PERCEPTION

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

Aggregators

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

Aggregators

PERCEPTION

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

META Data C.

Stat.MeaningE.

Pers.Aggreg.

Ambient Creat.

Serv.Prov.Aggregators

PERCEPTION

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

CO

NT

EX

T-M

EA

NIN

G

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems

Municipal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

META Data C.

Stat.MeaningE.

Pers.Aggreg.

Ambient Creat.

Devices

Logistics

CRM

PHARMA

News/Mg

Serv.Prov.Aggregators

PERCEPTION

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

CO

NT

EX

T-M

EA

NIN

G

Industry

CO

OR

DIN

AT

ION

From Atoms to Bits

Technologies OBJECTS DetectionSystems

Municpal.

Tourist Ag.

Product Pr.

Content Pr.

Individ.WKComm.WK Regulations

A

MB

IE

NT

Platforms

Srv.Aggr.

Track/V.A

META Data C.

Stat.MeaningE.

Pers.Aggreg.

Ambient Creat.

Devices

Logistics

CRM

PHARMA

News/Mg

Serv.Prov.Aggregators

PERCEPTION

CO

NN

EC

TIV

.

CO

NT

EX

T-M

EA

NIN

G

Industry

CO

OR

DIN

AT

ION

SOCIETY – ETICS - CULTURE

From Atoms to Bits

Future Center: Ecosystems evolution

You at the Future Centre

• Open to other Companies participation

• One year committment• Company pays for his researcher • Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure

• Open to post-Doc enrolled in the Gold Program

• One year committment• Telecom Italia provide a bourse• Telecom Italia provides office and infrastructure

• Fluency in English required

Thanks!

roberto.saracco@telecomitalia.it

Hong Kong, South Korea, Vietnam, Roadshow – October-December 2008

Get the full multimedia presentation from COMSOC at www.comsoc.org -> education > DLT