Tennessee Technological University

Tennessee Technological University

Faisal Hossain

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Potential Role of SWOT for International Issues of Surface Water

Monitoring

Faisal HossainDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering


SWOT Workshop, Ohio State University, Sept 16-18, 2008


Faisal Hossain


OUTLINE

1. Overview of Current Situation: Surface water monitoring in International River Basins and developing nations.

2. Potential of SWOT for Bangladesh: Accuracy of SRTM data for discharge estimation of Brahmaputra river (braided) in Bangladesh.

General Problem of Transboundary Flood Forecasting in the Developing World:

The Story of the Niger River

Question:

How does a downstream nation monitor early the evolution of river flooding across political boundaries of 5 nations, 11 administrations and a diverse landscape?

1. 4030 km long, 211,3200 km2

2. Flows through 5 countries

4. Frequent river flooding induced by heavy rainfall

3. Drainage area comprised of 11 countries

5. Diverse climate, rainfall regime, soil conditions, topography = varying response of landscape to rainfall



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Hydro-political limitations worsen at the shorter time scales

214 International River Basins in 1979 UN Register

261 in 2002 (Updated)

145 countries are associated in IRBs

Accounts for 40% of total land surface.

> 50% of total surface flow

Percentage Area (of an IRB)

Number of Countries

91-99% 39

81-90% 11

71-80% 14

61-70% 11

51-60% 17

41-50% 10

31-40% 10

21-30% 13

11-20% 9

1-10% 11

Transboundary Flood Forecasting: The Global Picture on International River Basins

Source: Dr. Aaron Wolf, Oregon State University


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Future Missions of Potential Value

Expected launch 2013

3 hourly global rainfall products at 10X10 km scale

SWOT

Expected launch– 2016

Q for major rivers every 2-3 days


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Transboundary Flood Monitoring: New Questions for Assessing Sustainability of

Planned/Proposed Missions

General Science Question

How realistic is the use of satellite rainfall in overcoming the transboundary limitations to

flood monitoring?

Specific Questions

What specific IRBs, and downstream nations would benefit more than others from GPM?

Can we develop rules of thumb for application of satellite rainfall data in ungauged IRBs?

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Major

Minor

Improvement

Negative

‘Ball Park’ Assessment for NASA product 3B41RT

Fully Distributed Open-Book Hydrologic Model KANPUR 1.0 by Katiyar, N. and Hossain, F. 2007 Environ. Mod. Software, vol. 22(12).

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Speculations on IRBs where Satellite Rainfall Data will be ‘Sustainable’ for Flood Monitoring

Name of down stream country

International River Basin % of Total Basin Area

Cameroon Akpa/Benito/Ntem 41.8

Senegal Senegal 8.08

Ivory Coast Cavally 54.1

Benin Oueme 82.9

Botswana Okovango 50.6

Nigeria Niger 26.6

Bangladesh Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna 7.0

Brunei Bangau 46.0

Laos Ca/Song Koi 35.1

Cambodia Mekong 20.1

Preliminary Speculation - Setting aside ALL assumptions

Negligible Improvement

Improvement

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More Intelligent Speculation

Based on Koppen Climate Classification

Source: Encyclopedia Britannica

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Speculation on IRBs (Contd.)

Cfa & Cwa– Humid Subtropical; Bsh- Semi-aridGanges River– Bangladesh (+45%) ↑ Yalu and Tomen Rivers – North Korea (+20%)↑Limpopo River – Mozambique (+35%)↑ Senegal River – Senegal (+42%)↑La Plata River– Uruguay (+45%)↑

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Part II: Potential of SWOT for Bangladesh


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Overview of Surface Water-related Hazards in Bangladesh

Average inundation 22%68% area inundated in 1998

About 1/4 th of the countrysusceptible to tidal surges

Over 3000 km river bank will be eroded by 2025

Water scarcity in 7 months a year

The geographical location and average land levels of Bangladesh are conducive

to

FloodErosion

Storm SurgeDrought

Source: Institute of Water Modeling - Bangladesh



Routine Surface Water Monitoring Needs of Bangladesh

Flood Forecasting during Monsoon Season.

About 30 river stations.

Forecasts for public - 3 days.

10 day to seasonal forecast under prototype.

Source: Flood Forecasting and Warning Center; www.ffwc.gov.bd

Danger Level

RHWL3-Day Water Level

Forecast

Challenges of Flood Forecasting• Bangladesh comprises only 7% of Basin

area.

• Lack of upstream (transboundary) rainfall and stream flow in real-time limits forecasting range to ~ 3 days.

• High costs and maintenance issues for In-situ rainfall and stream gage network

• Globally declining trend on in-situ networks

21 day forecast is IDEAL according to Asian Disaster Preparedness Center for South Asian nations


Impact of Large-scale Water Diversion Projects Upstream?


The Indian River Linking Project (IRLP)

Trans-Boundary Issues: Tigris & Euphrates Disputes

Slide courtesy Frank Schwartz

• Water Usage:– 98.5% water in Euphrates from Turkey;

Syria totally dependent; Iraq heavily dependent.

• Upsetting the Status Quo:– 1977 Turkey launched Southeastern

Anatolia Project (GAP): 22 dams 19 hydroelectric power plants

– Irrigation will use 27% of total flow (25 km3)

– Tensions raised by unilateral development of basins

• Project effectively controls both rivers.

• Remote measurements of surface water volumes and fluxes creates free information for all, removing questions regarding who has how much.



Space-borne Discharge Estimation of Brahmaputra River (a Braided River)

What is the Uncertainty of satellite interferometry (SRTM) -based discharge estimation of braided rivers?

SRTM Overpass – Feb 20, 2000

Land/Water Mask

SRTM elevation data

Braided rivers have

not been well-studied


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Space-borne Discharge Estimation of Bangladesh Rivers

Bathymetry data of Brahmaputra river cross sections from IWM Water slope derived from SRTM

Uniform flow conditions: Water surface slope=Energy gradient: Manning’s equation



Discharge Estimation of Bangladesh Rivers

Hamski et al (2008) – ASLO – American Society of Limnology and Oceanography Conference March 2-7, Orlando, Florida.

Low flow (dry season) discharge can be estimated

by satellite interferometry

within the natural low-flow variability



The Future Work Requirements to promote SWOT for Climate Change & Food Security Planning of

South Asia Assess value of SWOT for high (& transboundary) flow (Monsoon) season for flood forecasting (extending range beyond 3 days).

Assess accuracy requirements of SWOT for surface flow monitoring and hydrologic modeling of GBM Basin for water resources forecasting & planning of Bangladesh.

Assess Impact of upstream water diversionProjects on downstreamLow-lands

GBM Model set-up by Institute of Water Modeling for assessing impact of Upstream Water Diversion projects

BM establishment with RTK-GPS

Tidal Discharge

Measurement

ADCP Measurement

Spot Level using Total Station

Alignment Survey using ProXR DGPS

Bathymetry Charting

Availability of Ground Data and River Measurement Infrastructure for SWOT

IWM – Bangladesh offers a range of archived data and river measurement capability for SWOT



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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1. Amanda Harris, Preethi Raj, Nitin Katiyar, Jon Schwenk, Rahil Chowdhury, Ling Tang and Caitlin Balthrop.

2. Ohio State University – Doug Alsdorf and James Hamski

3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (Laboratory of Atmospheres) – George Huffman.

4. University of Mississippi: Azad Hossain.

5. Institute of Water Modeling – Bangladesh: Abu Saleh Khan, Zeaul Huq, Mahbubur Rahman and Bushra Nishat.

6. Dhaka University - Bangladesh: Khaled Hassan.

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THANK YOU!

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