Terri Susan Fine, Ph.D.

Content Specialist

Florida Joint Center for Citizenship

Why Does Florida Matter in 2012?

Three factors garner attention in any presidential electionPrimary CalendarRedistrictingElectoral CollegeCampaign Finance

The Primary Calendar

Why so many primaries?Candidate selection must be fair and open

Why does the primary calendar matter?“The Big Mo”What happened to Florida in 2008?

Redistricting

The U.S. Constitution requires that a census be conducted every 10 years

Baker v. Carr (1962) requires that legislative districts be reasonably equal in size “One person, one vote”The number of districts has not changed since 1911Each state is guaranteed at least one district and

two Senators

Redistricting in FloridaMajor population changes since 2000

Florida’s population increased by 17.6% (to 18.8 million)

Hispanics are now 22.5% of the populationHispanics are now the state’s largest minority

groupDistricts previously engineered to elect minorities

have become too small

Redistricting in Florida (continued)

• Of the five congressional districts that have grown the least since 2000, three elect the state's only African-American members of Congress.

• Two of the five slowest-growing state Senate districts are majority African-American.

• Out of the 30 slowest-growing House districts, one-third "minority-majority" seats.

The Politics of Redistricting

What is “racial gerrymandering”?The original “gerrymander”Voting Rights Act (1965)

Preclearance provision (Section 5)Voting Rights Act Amendments (1982)

“Vote dilution”Thornburgh v. Gingles (1986)

Fair Districts in FloridaVoters have mandated that lawmakers take politics and

self-interest out of the equation.In 2010, Florida voters adopted the "Fair Districts"

constitutional amendments requiring that congressional and legislative districts be drawn more compactly, following existing city and county boundaries where feasible — and without the intent to help incumbents or political parties.

Supporters said the aim was to stop the decades-old practice of gerrymandering political boundaries to prop up the party in power.

Who is Drawing the District Lines?State legislatures draw both state and federal districts

Republicans outnumber Democrats 81 to 39 in the Florida House

Republicans outnumber Democrats 28 to 12 in the Senate

Registered Democrats outnumber GOP voters.

Electoral College—Florida’s role will be enhanced in 2012

Florida is a winner-take-all stateElectoral College will likely remain the same sizeFlorida has more than 10% of the Electoral Votes

needed to win the presidencyThis will impact campaign strategy and the

attention that Florida receives

Campaign FinanceThe Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act was

enacted in 2002Eliminated “soft money”—unregulated

monies between the state and national political parties

Thank You