Terry J. Keating, Ph.D. Office of Air & Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency International...

Terry J. Keating, Ph.D.Terry J. Keating, Ph.D.Office of Air & RadiationOffice of Air & Radiation

U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyU.S. Environmental Protection Agency

International Transport International Transport of Air Pollutants (ITAP)of Air Pollutants (ITAP)

Animation of CO Concentrations Observed by NASA’s MOPITT/TERRA

What have we learned about What have we learned about International Transport?International Transport?

While most air While most air quality problems quality problems are due to local or are due to local or regional sources, regional sources, the U.S. is both an the U.S. is both an importer importer and and exporterexporter of air of air pollution.pollution.

Transboundary flow can be important Transboundary flow can be important during exceedances of the NAAQS, during exceedances of the NAAQS, as well as during exceedances of as well as during exceedances of Canadian & Mexican policy objectives.Canadian & Mexican policy objectives.

Transboundary Flows Transboundary Flows with Canada & Mexicowith Canada & Mexico

What do we know?What do we know?

Major emissions sources Major emissions sources have been located along both have been located along both borders, and new sources borders, and new sources continue to be built.continue to be built. SO2 Ann Emiss, BRAVO


Some of the most Some of the most dramatic examples of dramatic examples of international international transport are not transport are not anthropogenic.anthropogenic.

On July 8, 2002, On July 8, 2002, forest fires in Quebec forest fires in Quebec created a smoke created a smoke plume that blanketed plume that blanketed the U.S. East Coast. the U.S. East Coast. [NASA MODIS image][NASA MODIS image]

In May 1998, fires in Central In May 1998, fires in Central America create a smoke plume America create a smoke plume across the central U.S.across the central U.S.

Imports from Central AmericaImports from Central America

Flows from Central America carry smoke, as well as other pollutants, Flows from Central America carry smoke, as well as other pollutants, including pesticides. Pesticide use per acre in Central America exceeds including pesticides. Pesticide use per acre in Central America exceeds the US by a factor of 10.the US by a factor of 10.


GOES-8 Satellite Image, CIMSS Univ of WisconsinGOES-8 Satellite Image, CIMSS Univ of Wisconsin

Dust, metals, and other pollutants are transported from North Africa Dust, metals, and other pollutants are transported from North Africa across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and the Southeastern U.S. across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and the Southeastern U.S.

Saharan Dust over Miami = Saharan Dust over Miami =

10 – 100 10 – 100 g/mg/m33 24 hr PM NAAQS =24 hr PM NAAQS =

65 65 g/mg/m33 PM PM 2.52.5

150 150 g/mg/m33 PM PM 1010

[Prospero 1999][Prospero 1999]

Pathogens in Saharan Dust Pathogens in Saharan Dust have been linked to coral have been linked to coral decline in the Caribbean. decline in the Caribbean. [Shinn et al 2000][Shinn et al 2000]

Imports from AfricaImports from AfricaWhat do we know?What do we know?

The U.S. exports ozone The U.S. exports ozone precursors, mercury, and precursors, mercury, and other pollutants to the other pollutants to the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic. The impact on attainment of impact on attainment of European policy European policy objectives may be objectives may be significant.significant.

Days predicted to exceed the Days predicted to exceed the EU ozone standard that would EU ozone standard that would not exceed the standard in the not exceed the standard in the absence of North American absence of North American emissions.emissions.

[Li et al. , 2001][Li et al. , 2001]

Exports to EuropeExports to EuropeWhat do we know?What do we know?

Imports to Alaska & ArcticImports to Alaska & ArcticMercury, POPs, and other pollutants are carried into the Arctic, Mercury, POPs, and other pollutants are carried into the Arctic, by circulation patterns and “global distillation.”by circulation patterns and “global distillation.”

Air Transport PathwaysAir Transport Pathways Arctic Air MassArctic Air MassInIn SummerSummer andand WinterWinter

[Crane & Galasso, 1999]


Mercury DepositionMercury Deposition

~40% of all Hg deposition to the lower 48 states comes from ~40% of all Hg deposition to the lower 48 states comes from emission sources outside the U.S. or from U.S. emissions emission sources outside the U.S. or from U.S. emissions that have been transported across international boundariesthat have been transported across international boundaries

Global mercury emissions inventory Global mercury emissions inventory for 1995 (provided by AMAP)for 1995 (provided by AMAP)

Emissions distribution Contribution of different continents


[EPA, 1997]

From Travnikov, EMEP MSC-E

Dust from Chinese Deserts, Dust from Chinese Deserts, fossil fuel emissions, and other fossil fuel emissions, and other pollutants travel across the pollutants travel across the Pacific and impact the Western Pacific and impact the Western U.S.U.S.

Imports from AsiaImports from AsiaWhat do we know?What do we know?

[Aerosol Index, NASA TOMS][Aerosol Index, NASA TOMS]

World Energy Use [EIA, 2002]

Emissions in Asia are expected to Emissions in Asia are expected to grow with further economic grow with further economic development, offsetting emissions development, offsetting emissions decreases in the United States. decreases in the United States.

Simulated increase in mean U.S. surface ozone (ppbv) from Simulated increase in mean U.S. surface ozone (ppbv) from tripling of Asian emissions (1985 to 2015).tripling of Asian emissions (1985 to 2015).

Future ozone impacts could be enough to offset Future ozone impacts could be enough to offset the benefits of 25% decrease in U.S. emissions! the benefits of 25% decrease in U.S. emissions!

Jacob et al. [1999]Jacob et al. [1999]

Imports from AsiaImports from AsiaWhat do we know?What do we know?

The Tightening ViseThe Tightening ViseImplications for the U.S.?Implications for the U.S.?

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From Keating, West, and Farrell (in press)From Keating, West, and Farrell (in press)

IPCC-SRES global emission trends vs. national medium-IPCC-SRES global emission trends vs. national medium-term projectionsterm projections

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Implications for the U.S.?Implications for the U.S.?

From Markus Amann, IIASA

What will future emissions be?What will future emissions be?

The International ChallengeThe International ChallengeFor EPA to achieve it’s own strategic goals and For EPA to achieve it’s own strategic goals and objectives, we need to:objectives, we need to:– develop a better understanding of the impact develop a better understanding of the impact

of other countries on the USof other countries on the US– develop a better understanding of the impact develop a better understanding of the impact

of the US on other countriesof the US on other countries– help reduce these pollution sources through help reduce these pollution sources through

cost-effective appropriate technology, cost-effective appropriate technology, recognizing linkages between pollution recognizing linkages between pollution problemsproblems

Implications for the U.S.?Implications for the U.S.?

The EndThe End

Improving Our UnderstandingImproving Our Understanding• EPA ITAP Working GroupEPA ITAP Working Group

What are we doing?What are we doing?


• International and National Scientific International and National Scientific WorkshopsWorkshops

Including:Including:

Trans-Pacific Transport, Seattle, July 2000Trans-Pacific Transport, Seattle, July 2000

Trans-Atlantic Transport, New York, June 2001Trans-Atlantic Transport, New York, June 2001

Hemispheric Transport, Germany, Oct 2002Hemispheric Transport, Germany, Oct 2002




• OIA-ORD Speciated Mercury MonitoringOIA-ORD Speciated Mercury Monitoring

Including:Including:

Cheeka Peak, WashingtonCheeka Peak, Washington

Barrow, AlaskaBarrow, Alaska

Mauna Loa, HawaiiMauna Loa, Hawaii




• OIA & ORD Speciated Mercury MonitoringOIA & ORD Speciated Mercury Monitoring

• OAR/OAQPS Collaboration with NASAOAR/OAQPS Collaboration with NASA




• OIA & ORD Speciated Mercury MonitoringOIA & ORD Speciated Mercury Monitoring

• OAR/OAQPS Collaboration with NASAOAR/OAQPS Collaboration with NASA

• OAR/OAQPS Intercontinental transport and OAR/OAQPS Intercontinental transport and Climatic effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP) Climatic effects of Air Pollutants (ICAP) ProjectProject


Intercontinental Transport Intercontinental Transport & Climatic Effects& Climatic Effects

• Global Modeling of Ozone and Related OxidantsGlobal Modeling of Ozone and Related Oxidants– Jacob, Harvard UnivJacob, Harvard Univ

• Global and Regional Climate Impact of AerosolsGlobal and Regional Climate Impact of Aerosols– Jacobson, Stanford UnivJacobson, Stanford Univ

• Emission Inventories for Climate-Forcing Emission Inventories for Climate-Forcing PollutantsPollutants– Streets, Argonne National Lab Streets, Argonne National Lab

• Modeling of Trans-Pacific Transport Modeling of Trans-Pacific Transport – Hanna, Carolina Environmental ProgramsHanna, Carolina Environmental Programs


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Terry J. Keating, Ph.D. Office of Air & Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency International...

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