Texas Electric Cooperatives

Human Resources Conference

May 19, 2015

Dallas, Texas

Texas Population Characteristics, Trends, and Projections

Year* PopulationNumericChange

AnnualPercentChange

1950 7,711,194 -- --

1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4

1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7

1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7

1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0

2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3

2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1

2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8

2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4

2014 26,956,958 451,321 1.7

* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population EstimatesNote: Residual values are not presented in this table.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2014

3

Texas Population Growth 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts

1950 1960 1970 1980

1990 2000 2010

Historic County Population, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial censuses 4

5

Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

6

Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

7

30% of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2013 to 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates

U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to 2014

2013 2014 Number Percent5 Hays County, Texas 176,483 185,025 8,542 4.86 Fort Bend County, Texas 654,561 685,345 30,784 4.79 Comal County, Texas 118,891 123,694 4,803 4.0

12 Andrews County, Texas 16,808 17,477 669 4.013 Montgomery County, Texas 499,818 518,947 19,129 3.814 Williamson County, Texas 471,225 489,250 18,025 3.815 Kendall County, Texas 37,469 38,880 1,411 3.821 Ward County, Texas 11,245 11,625 380 3.423 Denton County, Texas 729,152 753,363 24,211 3.331 Collin County, Texas 858,711 885,241 26,530 3.132 Aransas County, Texas 24,299 24,972 743 3.135 Rockwall County, Texas 85,290 87,809 2,519 3.036 Waller, County 45,484 46,820 1,336 2.937 Ector County, Texas 149,522 153,904 4,382 2.9

Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction.

More than 1/4 of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2013-2014

U.S.Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2013 to 2014

2013 2014 Number Percent1 Harris County, Texas 4,352,752 4,441,370 88,618 2.0

6 Bexar County, Texas 1,822,154 1,855,866 33,712 1.9

8 Dallas County, Texas 2,486,083 2,518,638 32,555 1.3

10 Tarrant County, Texas 1,913,943 1,945,360 31,417 1.6

11 Fort Bend County, Texas 654,561 685,345 30,784 4.7

12 Travis County, Texas 1,122,748 1,151,145 28,397 2.5

14 Collin County, Texas 858,711 885,241 26,530 3.1

16 Denton County, Texas 729,152 753,363 24,211 3.327 Montgomery County, Texas 499,818 518,947 19,129 3.831 Williamson County, Texas 471,225 489,250 18,025 3.8

39 Hidalgo County 818,942 831,073 12,060 1.5

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimates6

9

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

1950-1960

1960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

2000-2010

89.5%

86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7%

53.7%

10.5%

13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3%

46.3%

Natural Increase Migration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

10

Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2013 to 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

11

Net Migration

Percent of 2013-2014 Population Change from Net Migration

Midland

Dallas

HoustonAustin

San Antonio

Ft. Worth

Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820-2012

18201827183418411848185518621869187618831890189719041911191819251932193919461953196019671974198119881995200220090

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013

Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011

California

Texas

New York

Florida

Illinois

11,660

8,814

10,045

11,002

3,884

18,766

8,331

17,403

11,730

7,054

100,835

30,982

40,835

15,651

22,721

56,831

61,418

30,532

59,220

10,957

Latin America

Asia

Europe

Africa and Other

Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011

Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.8%

2.4%

2.5%

4.2%

1.3%

6.0%

3.9%

6.1%

5.3%

5.7%

7.0%

5.8%

6.9%

6.5%

8.6%

11.7%

56.8%

54.9%

51.3%

49.1%

39.5%

39.4%

45.4%

37.1%

37.1%

36.9%

39.2%

40.9%

52.3%

48.1%

42.1%

45.1%

China India Mexico All Others

Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012

15

Inflows to Texas from Top 10 Sending States, 2013

Top 10 Senders, Numerically

Top 10 Senders, Percentage-wise

California 66,318 New Mexico 30%Florida 32,619 Louisiana 29%Oklahoma 29,169 Oklahoma 29%Louisiana 29,042 Arkansas 22%Illinois 28,900 Wyoming 17%New Mexico 22,695 Colorado 11%Georgia 19,988 California 11%New York 19,935 Arizona 11%Arizona 19,224 Kansas 10%Colorado 18,979 Mississippi 10%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Flows 2013; Inflows to Texas

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014

Texas2,180,000

California810,000 North

Carolina340,000

New York550,000

Washington320,000

Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014

29%

11%

7%4%

Texas

California

New York

North Carolina

Washington

4%

Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State

All Others

18

Percent of the Population Born in Texas, Texas Counties, 2009-2013

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

Fisher

Dawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

PctBrnTX

44.7% - 55%

55.1% - 65%

65.1% - 75%

75.1% - 85%

85.1% - 90.6%

Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010

NH White53%

NH Black12%

NH Other

4%

Hispanic or Latino

32%

2000

NH White45%

NH Black11%

NH Other

6%

His-panic or Latino38%

2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count

20

Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010

Under 1 year13 years 26 years 39 years 52 years 65 years 78 years 91 years0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

White (non-Hispanic) Hispanic

Age

Popu

latio

n

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

21

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male NH White Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

22

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male Hispanic Female NH Black FemaleNH Asian Female NH Other Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

23

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Under 1 year4 years8 years

12 years16 years20 years24 years28 years32 years36 years40 years44 years48 years52 years56 years60 years64 years68 years72 years76 years80 years84 years88 years92 years96 years

100 to 104 years

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000

NH White Male Hispanic Male NH Black Male NH Asian Male NH Other Male NH White FemaleHispanic Female NH Black Female NH Asian Female NH Other Female

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

24

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

GlasscockShelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

Percent of Households with at Least One Person Over the Age of 64 Years, Texas Counties, 2008-2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-year sample, 2008-2012

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

PctHHGT64

13-20%

21-30%

31-40%

41-50%

51-53%

25

Median Age, Texas Counties, 2009-2013

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

Fisher

Dawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

tl_2010_48_county10

MedAge

25 - 35

36 - 40

41 - 45

46 - 50

51 - 56

Source: U.S. Census  Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009-2013 5 Year Sample

Percentage of Population with Drive Times Longer than 25 Minutes, Texas Census Tracts, 1990 and 2010*

1990 2010*

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990 decennial census and *American Community Survey, 2008-2012 5 Year Sample. 12

27

Percentage of Families Whose Income in the Past 12 Months is Below the Poverty Level, Texas 2006-2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201211.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

13.0%

13.5%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

13.3%

12.8%

12.4%

13.4%

13.8%

14.4%

14.0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year sample, 2006-2012

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

55000000Zero Migration0.5 Migration1.0 Migration

Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050

28Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections

Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050

29Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

0

4,000,000

8,000,000

12,000,000

16,000,000

20,000,000

24,000,000NH WhiteNH BlackHispanicNH Other

Projected Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections . 2000-2010 Migration Scenario

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F6

-6,200 - 0

1 - 2,000

2,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 1,000,000

1,000,001 -3,480,000

15

Legend

tl_2010_48_county10

F5

LT 0%

0-40%

41-100%

101-250%

251-500%

Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2050

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections, Half 2000 to 2010 Migration Scenario

Under 5 05-09 10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Male 2050 Male 2010 Female 2010 Female 2050

Age

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

32

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

33

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario

Summary

• Population continues to grow quickly though growth is geographically unequal.

• Population growth is being driven by Hispanic population. • The future Texas labor force will be largely Hispanic.• Hispanics tend to have lower levels of educational attainment

than other groups.• Geographic distribution of industries and occupations is

variable.• Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious

implications for future Texas economy.

34

35

Demographics & Destiny

36

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.usTwitter: @TexasDemography

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.