TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES
RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST WESLEY MILLER
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
PAIGE SILVARESEARCH ASSOCIATE T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T
2 1 2 0N O V E M B E R 2 0 1 9 D ATA
About This Report ................................................................................................................................. 3
November 2019 Summary .................................................................................................................... 4
Supply .................................................................................................................................................... 7
Texas Residential Construction Index ................................................................................................ 7
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits ..................................................................................... 7
Texas Housing Construction Permits .................................................................................................. 8
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits .............................................................. 8
Total Housing Starts Per Capita .......................................................................................................... 9
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value ......................................................................... 9
Total Months of Inventory ............................................................................................................... 10
Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ..................................................................................... 10
Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort ....................................................................... 11
Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory ....................................................................... 11
Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory ......................................................................... 12
Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory .............................................................................. 12
Demand ............................................................................................................................................... 13
Total Housing Sales........................................................................................................................... 13
Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort ....................................................................................... 13
Major Metros Total Housing Sales ................................................................................................... 14
Texas Homes Days on Market .......................................................................................................... 14
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market ............................................................................... 15
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market .................................................................................... 15
Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort .................................................................................. 16
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield ........................................................................ 16
Texas Mortgage Applications ........................................................................................................... 17
Prices ................................................................................................................................................... 18
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ............................................................. 18
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price .......................................................................... 18
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ............................................................................ 19
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ................................................................................. 19
Repeat Sales Home Price Index ........................................................................................................ 20
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ..................................................................................... 20
2
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot .......................................................... 21
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ............................................................... 21
Texas Home Sale Price to List Price .................................................................................................. 22
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price ....................................................................... 22
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price ............................................................................ 23
3
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Texas Housing Insight is a summary of important economic indicators that help discern
trends in the Texas housing markets. All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted
data, and percentage changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.
This monthly publication provides data and insights on the Texas housing markets. We hope you
find them useful. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
Dr. James Gaines, Dr. Luis Torres, Wesley Miller, and Paige Silva
Data current as of December 23, 2019
© 2019, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.
4
Texas housing sales stabilized in November after reaching a record high the previous month. Steady
employment growth and low mortgage interest rates continued to support housing demand, as
exemplified by rising mortgage applications and a downtick in the average days on market. As
home builders continued to concentrate their efforts to provide more affordable homes, inventory
for homes priced less than $300,000 expanded for the first time since February. Additional supply
at the lower end of the market pushed Austin sales to record-breaking levels while also supporting
an increase in San Antonio’s sales volume. On the other hand, November home purchases in
Houston and North Texas fell due to low inventories in the same price range. Although home-price
appreciation has moderated over the past few years, housing affordability remains the primary
challenge to the Texas housing market.
Supply*
The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction
activity, ticked up with industry wage improvements. The Residential Construction Leading Index
rose to its highest level since the Great Recession as housing starts increased, suggesting higher
levels of construction in the coming months.
Single-family construction permits fell for the first time in five months, but the year-to-date (YTD)
count increased 1.5 percent compared with January-through-November levels in 2018. Texas led
the nation with 9,128 nonseasonally adjusted permits, accounting for 16 percent of the U.S. total,
but ranked seventh in per capita issuance. On the metropolitan level, Houston topped the list for
the 13th straight month with 2,883 permits, followed by DFW with a post-recessionary record
2,789. Issuance remained strong in Central Texas with 1,259 and 736 permits in Austin and San
Antonio, respectively. Texas’ monthly multifamily permits stepped back from a YTD record in
October but maintained a strong upward trend.
Total Texas housing starts accelerated to a one-and-a-half year high, increasing 6.1 percent amid a
rebound in the multifamily sector. Single-family private construction values fell 8.7 percent after
data revisions pushed October values upward. November levels, however, were in line with the
* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.
5
yearlong average. Houston and San Antonio registered monthly losses but maintained positive
momentum. Austin and DFW construction values increased after dropping in October.
Strong construction activity balanced solid sales volumes. Texas’ months of inventory (MOI)
remained at 3.6 months for the fifth consecutive month. A total MOI around six months is
considered a balanced housing market. The MOI for homes priced less than $300,000, which
comprised two-thirds of sales, ticked above 2.8 as the supply of active listings increased for the
third straight month. Inventory for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000), however,
remained elevated at 8.3 months. This disparity exemplifies the shortage of affordable housing,
although efforts have been made to more closely match demand and supply.
Inventory continued to decrease in Austin and Dallas, sliding below 2.2 months in the former and
posting 3.1 months in the latter. The Fort Worth and Houston MOIs steadied at 2.5 and 3.9 months,
respectively. Meanwhile in San Antonio, a recent influx of new listings pushed the MOI to 3.7
months with a notable increase in the $200,000-$300,000 price cohort.
Demand
Total housing sales flattened in November after adjusting for seasonality. The upward trend,
however, persisted amid low interest rates and ongoing strength in the job market. Activity for
homes priced above $200,000 slowed after reaching record-breaking levels the previous month but
increased more than 10 percent compared with 2018 on a YTD basis.
Central Texas sales volumes continued to grow, particularly in Austin, where transactions climbed
3.2 percent for the fifth straight month. Most of the monthly improvement occurred in the
$200,000-$300,000 price range after weakness in the first half of the year. San Antonio sales rose 1
percent, largely due to a surge in closings for homes priced below $200,000. Houston and Fort
Worth, however, lost traction in the $200,000-$300,000 bracket, pulling total sales down 1.3 and
1.1 percent, respectively. Dallas sales activity declined 3.4 percent with decreases across all price
cohorts.
Texas’ average days on market (DOM) stabilized at 59 days, indicating healthy demand. The DOM
in Houston and San Antonio steadied at 56 and 59 days, respectively. In Austin, the DOM recorded
a monthly increase to 57 days but shed two days from a year ago. North Texas demand remained
strong compared to the rest of the state with DOMs of 51 and 45 days in Dallas and Fort Worth,
respectively.
Speculations of a U.S.-China trade truce and continued strength in the national economic data
slowed the downward slide in interest rates. Long-term rates were above those for short-term
instruments for the second straight month following a four-month yield curve inversion, signaling
increased confidence. Concerns of a recession lessened as current economic fundamentals at the
state and national level remain healthy and stable. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose
above 1.8 percent, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate
stabilized at 3.7 percent. After falling the previous month, mortgage applications for home
6
purchases climbed nearly 30 percent YTD. Refinance mortgage application activity accelerated as
rates remained relatively low, almost tripling since year end.
Prices
The Texas median home price flattened at $245,300, while annual home-price appreciation
decelerated to 4.2 percent. The median price for new homes flattened; however, resale
transactions, which comprise the majority of home sales, recorded the fastest median price growth
rate this year of 5.5 percent year over year (YOY), exceeding the national existing-home price
appreciation of 5.4 percent YOY.
On the metropolitan level, median home prices fell. Austin’s median price dropped $14,600 from
an all-time high in October to $314,400. San Antonio’s metric shed $6,300, falling to $229,500 as
homes priced less than $200,000 comprised more than a third of total sales for the first time since
May. The median price in North Texas was $293,600 and $251,800 in Dallas and Fort Worth,
respectively. Houston’s price decreased for the second straight month to $245,100.
The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index indicated more moderate home price appreciation of 3.7
percent. The Dallas and Houston indices slowed pace, increasing only 2.1 and 2.0 percent YOY,
respectively. San Antonio’s index increased 4.1 percent YOY but decelerated from growth as high as
6.6 percent in January. On the other hand, Austin’s and Fort Worth’s indexes accelerated 5.5 and
4.3 percent YOY, respectively. Rising home prices without substantial wage growth decreases
overall housing affordability, which remains the primary challenge to the Texas home market.
7
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
TX Coincident Index US Coincident Index TX Leading Index
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
United States
Texas
Texas Residential Construction Index (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
8
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Fort Worth is missing data for Somervell County. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Single-Family Units 2-4 Family Units
5+ Family Units
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Texas Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Major Metros Single-Family Housing Construction Permits (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
9
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Note: Inflation adjusted. Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
United States
Texas
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Texas
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Total New Private Single-Family Construction Value
(Index Jan 2011 = 100)
Total Housing Starts Per Capita
(Index Jan 2000 = 100)
10
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing homes and new single-family homes; new nonsingle-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information, see Months of Inventory. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
United States
Texas
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
Total Months of Inventory (Months)
Texas Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (Months)
11
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Existing and New Home Months of Inventory (Months)
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
3.0 3.1
4.0
4.6
8.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
$0 - $200K $200K - $300K $300K - $400K $400K - $500K $500K+
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Months of Inventory
New Months of Inventory
Texas Current Months of Inventory by Price Cohort (November 2019)
12
Major Metros Existing Home Months of Inventory (Months)
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros New Home Months of Inventory (Months)
13
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes sold through an MLS; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes. For more information see Housing Sales. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
United States Texas
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
Texas Total Housing Sales by Price Cohort (Index Jan 2011 = 100)
14
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Days on Market New Home Days on Market
Texas Homes Days on Market (Days)
Major Metros Total Housing Sales (Index Jan 2000 = 100)
15
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Homes Days on Market (Days)
Major Metros New Homes Days on Market (Days)
16
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Nonseasonally adjusted. Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$0-$199,999 $200,000-$299,999
$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,999
$500,000+
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Mortgage Bond
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Treasury Yield
(Percent)
Texas Home Days on Market by Price Cohort (Days)
17
Note: Seasonally adjusted. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Refinance Purchase
Texas Mortgage Applications
(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
18
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
280,000
300,000
320,000
340,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Sales Price
New Home Median Sales Price
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
310,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Sale Price
New Home Median Sale Price
Texas Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)
United States Existing and New Home Median Sales Price ($)
19
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
300,000
330,000
360,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
170,000
200,000
230,000
260,000
290,000
320,000
350,000
380,000
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Median Sales Price ($)
Major Metros New Home Median Sales Price ($)
20
Note: Seasonally adjusted. The Repeat Sales Home Price Index tracks real home price appreciation for residential single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Texas Austin-Round RockDallas-Plano-Irving Fort Worth-ArlingtonHouston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land San Antonio-New Braunfels
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Median Price PSF
New Home Median Price PSF
Texas Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
Repeat Sales Home Price Index (Year-over-Year Percentage Change)
21
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
145
155
165
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
Major Metros New Home Median Price Per Square Foot ($)
22
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Existing Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
New Home Sale-to-List Price Ratio
0.90
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros Existing Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
Texas Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
23
Note: Trend-Cycle Component. For single-family homes. Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
0.91
0.92
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
San Antonio-New Braunfels
Major Metros New Home Sale Price to List Price (Ratio)
i
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