Texas Public Policy FoWind Energy: Power for the F

Robert L. BInstitute for Ene

Wind Energy: Power for the F

© 2007 Newport-1

Institute for EneAustin,

March 25

oundation SeminarFuture or a lot of Hot Air?

Bradley, Jr.ergy Research

Future or a lot of Hot Air?

ergy ResearchTexas5, 2008

© 2007 Newport-2

our energy is renewable

Renewable to Carbo(Qua(Qua

Renewable

40 –

Renewable Energy Era

30 –

20 –

10 –

0

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875

Wood

© 2007 Newport-3

on-energy Era: U.S.ads)ads)

Carbon-energyCarbon-energy Era

Petroleum

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear Power

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Hydroelectric Power

W. S. Jevons: “The Cthere is no --there is no

© 2007 Newport-4

oal Question” (1865) going back going back--

Limits of Wi

“The first great requiwholly at our commawhat degree we desirgmotive power, is wholabour, for during a ccountry would be thr

(1865)

“No possible concenforce required in largwindmill has the powseven horses. Many ten windmills to driveten windmills to driveemploying a total engno less than 1,000 lar

© 2007 Newport-5

indpower

isite of motive power is, that it shall be and, to be exerted when, and where, and in re. The wind, for instance, as a direct , ,

olly inapplicable to a system of machine calm season the whole business of the rown out of gear.”

ntration of windmills … would supply the ge factories or iron works. An ordinary wer of about thirty-four men, or at most

ordinary factories would therefore require e them and the great Dowlais Ironworkse them, and the great Dowlais Ironworks, gine power of 7,308 horses, would require rge windmills!”

Wind Power: EnergLate 19th Century

© 2007 Newport-6

gy Future or Past? Late 20th Century

© 2007 Newport-7

Wind Hyperbo

“Although wind farms still dependbe economical without this suppo

“S l d i d t h l“Solar and wind energy technolog‘takeoff’ phase of the kind that perthe early 1980’s.”

“Advances in wind turbine systemcompetitive with fossil-fuel powere

© 2007 Newport-8

ole vs. Reality

d on tax credits, they are likely to rt within a few years.”

- Worldwatch Institute, 1985

i t b t igies appear to be entering a rsonal computers experienced in

- Worldwatch Institute, 1996

ms [are making wind]. . . cost-ed generation in some regions.”

- Worldwatch Institute, 2001

A New “Green”

“The greenest fuels are the ones that conmaterial that must be mined, trucked, pucomparable amounts of energy from the environmental disruption . . . . ‘Soft’ enerl d i t iland intensive.

The greenest possible strategy is to minesearch high and low, where the life mostlsearch high and low, where the life mostlin the middle, living and green.”

© 2007 Newport-9

” Energy Test?

ntain the most energy per pound of mped, piped, and burnt . . . . Extracting surface would entail truly monstrous rgy sources [in comparison] are horribly

e and to bury, to fly and to tunnel, to ly isn’t, and to leave the edge, the spacely isn t, and to leave the edge, the space

- Peter Huber, Hard Green (1999)( )

© 2007 Newport-10

“Enron’s mini-vision:leading renewable

Become the world’s energy company”

Conclu

Renewable energies represen

Th b b dThe carbon-based energy eranot be competitive or market-

Government renewable mandreduce reliability, hurting the

End mandates and stop throw

Energy realism

© 2007 Newport-11

usions

nt the energy past, not the future

i till i d t illa is still young—wind, etc. will -preferred for many decades

dates waste resources and most vulnerable consumers

wing good money after bad

m, not alarmism

© 2007 Newport-12

Solar Hyperbo

“The solar market could explode

R-R

“Many of the machines and procMany of the machines and procsolar economy are now almost efuels.”

W

“At the moment solar is not com

-W

base load power generation. Thelectricity at something like doufor peak demand.”

© 2007 Newport-13

-S

ole vs. Reality

e.”

Royal Dutch Shell 1980Royal Dutch Shell, 1980

cesses that could provide energy in acesses that could provide energy in a economically competitive with fossil

W ldW t h I tit t 1990

mmercially viable for either peak or

WorldWatch Institute, 1990

y phe best technology produces uble the cost of conventional sources

Sir John Browne, BP (1997)

Forecast of U.S. E

2005 Actual31% Gro

(1.1%/y

Nuclear

(100 quads)

OilCoal23%

8%

41%

Gas

23% 41%

6%23%

Renewables

© 2007 Newport-14

86% Fossil Fu

Energy Demand

2030 Outlookowthyr.)

Nuclear

(131 quads)

Coal26%

Oil

7%

26% 40%

7%Gas21%

Renewables

21%

els

Carbon-free EnerWhat is PoliticWhat is Politic

Carbon free

20%

Carbon-free

(Oil, Gas & Coal)80%

© 2007 Newport-15

rgies in the U.S.cally Correct?cally Correct?

“Correct”W d i d & l

25%

Wood, wind & solar

25%

Nuclear Hydro

75%(Politically Incorrect)

Source: U.S. DOE

Maturing Hyd1850 P1850 Prese

LNG

CoalCoal GasCoal

PetroleumCoal GasCoal

Natural GasPetroleumCoal GasCoal

Natural GPetroleuCoal GasCoal

1850

© 2007 Newport-16

drocarbon Erat F tent Future

Synthetics

Future

Gas to Liq ids

OrimulsionLNG

Tar Sands;OrimulsionLNG

Tar SandsGas-to-Liquids

Gasums

Natural GasPetroleumCoal GasCoal

Natural GasPetroleumCoal GasCoal

2007

© 2007 Newport-17

18 0 2001850–200

© 2007 Newport-18

00 U00 Usage

Source: IPCC (2001)

Estimated Glob

Trillion Barrels

7

65 years110 years 200 years

7

3.2

Crude Oil Heavy Oil/Cr de Oil

1.1

y

1.9+ + +

© 2007 Newport-19

Crude OilProved

Reserves

Heavy Oil/Oil SandsResources

Crude OilProbable

Resources

bal Oil SuppliesInfiniteInfinite

2 100

125,000 years

2,100

725 years

12s

725 years

Agric lt ral

+

Shale OilResources (Range)

Agricultural Oils