TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

FIRST STEPS TOWARDS

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT AT THE GLOBAL SCALE

Rita Van Dingenen, John van Aardenne, Frank Dentener, Frank Raes, *Antonio Soria, *Laszlo Szabor,

*Peter Russ

European Commission, JRC-IES Ispra (I), *JRC-IPTS Seville (E)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Rationale• Mission of JRC: provide scientifically-sound support for

conception, development, monitoring, … of policies at EU level.

• Local and short term co-benefits for non-annex 1 countries issue in climate negotiations

• Kyoto flexible mechanisms: implications location of emission reductions (Climate forcing/AQ)?

• Hemispheric transport of pollution• Increasing contribution ship/aviation emissions• Difference with NEC-GP: Climate Change included

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Background• JRC has developed home-expertise in

– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5)

– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl)

– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)

• Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)– IIASA (emission scenarios)– Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

TM5•Global Chemical Transport Model

•Emissions: EDGAR/RAINS•Meteo: ECMWF fields (3 hourly)

•Base resolution 6°x9°•2 step 2-way nested to 1°x1° over selected regions

Krol et al., 2005 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 5, pp 417-432

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Background• JRC has developed home-expertise in

– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5)

– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl)

– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)

• Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)– IIASA (emission scenarios)– Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Emissions air pollutants and GHG1970-2000on 1x1 gridby countryby region

Emissions by sector, country

F10 emissions of NO2

(Unit: Tg NO2)

0

2000

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14000

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1973

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yearTime series of emissions

Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)

CH4 in 2000 (320 Tg)

Energy

Industry

Agriculture

Waste

Biomass burning

RIVM (NL)TNO (NL)MPI (D)JRC (EU)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Background• JRC has developed home-expertise in

– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5)

– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl)

– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)

• Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)– IIASA (emission scenarios)– Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

The POLES Model

• Prospective Outlook on Long-Term Energy Systems• Global sectoral model of world energy system.• Output:

– Long-term (2030, 2050) world energy outlooks (47 countries/regions)

– CO2 emission marginal abatement cost curves by region; emission trading system analysis

– Technology improvement scenarios

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Background• JRC has developed home-expertise in

– global atmospheric chemistry modelling based on standard emission scenarios (TM5)

– emission database development EDGAR (JRC-IES, Ispra; RIVM,Nl)

– economic energy model POLES (JRC-IPTS, Seville)

• Links and ongoing collaboration with – MPI Hamburg (ECHAM climate model)– IIASA (emission scenarios)– Hadley Center (meteo fields)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Energy use Industrialproduction

Solventuse

Waste Land use/Forestry

Unmanagedbiosphere

Socio-economic change

CO, NH3, NOx, PM, SO2, VOC, etcemissions

CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC, HFC, etcemissions

Outdoor air pollution GHG concentrations

Human health Ecosystems

Biogenic change

Climate change

Hu

man

(P

olic

y) r

esp

on

seN

atural resp

on

se

Agriculture

Emissioninventory

Atmospheric chem. + transp.

Impacts

Economy model

Climate model

POLES

EDGARRAINS

TM5

ECHAM

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Very first results and developments

• Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants– EDGAR-POLES collaboration

• Global estimate of agricultural losses due to Ozone

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

EDGAR

1970 2000 2030 2050

POLES

Methodology:

Aggregate EDGAR fuel, sector, country detail to POLES level for Yr 2000

Transfer EDGAR (aggregated) EF to POLES

Include abatement in EF

Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES.

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Collaboration EDGAR-POLES.

)1()()()( ,,,

,,,, tEFxtACtEmission mlkj

lkjlkji

i: compound j: countryk: sector l: process by fuel/technologym:abatement techn. t: time (year)AC: activity dataEF:emission factor (no explicit abatement technology specified but application of technology included in emission factor for each year)

AC: 2000-2050 from POLESEF: 2000-2050 from EDGARv32FT2000Interface developed to match:j: 47 POLES regions with 240 EDGAR countriesk,l : differences in fuel and sector detail (e.g. Power plants POLES vs public electricity, autoproduction, combined heat).

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Scenario studies on future emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants (preliminary results)

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, NO

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CO

NOx NMVOC SO2 CO

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China: residential combustion

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Gg

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CH4 N2O CO2

USA: residential combustion

More info: John van Aardenne, JRC-IES

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

IPCC4 Experiment II: 2030 PhotocompScenarios/simulation S1-S5

Sim. ID emissions Meteo Description

S1 IIASA-CLE-2000 2000 Baseline

S1c IIASA-CLE-2000 1990s Baseline for climatological period

S2 IIASA-CLE-2030 2000 IIASA current legislation

S2c IIASA-CLE-2030 1990s IIASA current legislation for climatological period

S3 IIASA-MFR-2030 2000 IIASA MFR (Maximum Feasible Reduction optimistic technology scenario)

S4 A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 (the most ‘pessimistic’ IPCC SRES scenario), harmonized with IIASA emissions for 2000

S4s A2-2030 2000 SRES A2 with ‘high’ ship emissions

S5c IIASA-CLE-2030 2020s Climate Change Simulation. Prescribed SST data for the 2020s.

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

TM5 Year 2000 averaged

surface ozone

Change in surface ozone 2000 – 2030

(CLE)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

First application:Economic evaluation of crop losses (2000)

due to O3 damage

Approach of Wang and Mauzerall (2004), but on global scale

• Calculcate global 1°x1°AQ index (based on 1 hourly surface ozone concentration). AQ index: M7, W126 (for comparison with W&M)

• Average grids over country, weighing according to crop suitability index SI: IIASA-FAO, alternatively: GLC2000AQav = (AQ*SI)/(SI)

• Apply for each country exposure-yield relationship = national Relative Yield Loss (RYL)

• Crop Production Loss (CPL) = actual production * RYL/(1-RYL)Production data from FAO

• Economic cost = Local Market Price * CPL

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

WHEAT MAIZE

RICE SOYBEANS

Suitability index for crop cultivation(FAO/IIASA GAEZ project)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

M$50000

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1

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Agricultural production losses

- Due to climate change (2080, A2 scenario): all crops + lifestock

(G. Fischer, IIASA)- Due to ozone (2030, CLE), 4 crops (this work)

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

N-America Eur+Russia East Asia S Asia Sub-Sah.

Af rica

Latin Amer. World

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Outlook

• Truly AP-CC integrated approach• Scenario and emission database development

(EDGAR-POLES, EDGAR-RAINS)• Impact assessment and CBA

VegetationO3 flux for crops and forest trees according to ICP

Modelling&Mapping recommendations for large scale IAM

(generic stomatal flux, no effect of drought)

Human healthO3 and PM

• Sector-based climate change study (EDGAR – ECHAM)

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

emissionscenario

Climate-Chemmodel

soil, terrain database

Climate+ soil + terrain constraints for agriculture,crop distribution

O3 fields and AQ indices

MeteoGHGAP

energy & technology

scenarioproduction demand

trade

Crop production model (Basic Linked System)

POLES, IIASA

EDGARRAINSPOLES

ECHAM

IIASA

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Development of future emission inventories

POLES

Energy market

POLES Activity data (sector, fuel, technology)

Air pollution emission inventory

(Current, future)

EDGAR (2000)

EDGAR Activity data (sector, fuel, technology)

AggregatedEDGAR Activity

Air pollution emission inventory

(2000)

EF (s,f,t)

POLES EF (s,f,t)

2000

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Increased human O3 exposure 2000 – 2030

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Wheat sensitivity to O3 damage

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

SRES A2

SRES B2

IIASA CLE

IIASA MRFCLE Europe + Russia

CLE N America

CLE Asia + Oceania

Projected anthropogenic emissions NOx (Tg NO2 y-1)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Exposure-Yield parametrisations:

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 20 40 60 80

W126 (ppmh)

Rel

ativ

e Y

ield

(%

)Wheat Corn Soybean

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 20 40 60 80

M7 (ppbV)

Rel

ativ

e Y

ield

(%

)

Rice M7

From open-top chamber experiments in Europe and US

TFIAM Rome 17-19/5/2006

Country4 crops loss

year 2000 (M$) fraction of GDP(2000)

(India) (5045.89) (1.10%)

China 2577.31 0.24%

Japan 2170.63 0.05%

Iran 975.53 0.96%

Pakistan 706.05 1.16%

Turkey 702.30 0.35%

USA 577.80 0.01%

Brazil 314.40 0.05%

Italy 296.76 0.03%