Thailand’s 1.5 Degrees24th AIM International Workshop

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

November 5-6, 2018

Sustainable Energy & Low Carbon Research Unit (SELC)

Thammasat University, Thailand

2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Bil

lio

n $

US

2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

. per

son

Population

Historical data

Forecasted data

Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 0.48%2014-2030 = 0.03%

Growth rate:1990-2005 = 1.04%

GDP

Historical data

Growth rate:1990-2005 = 4.66%(As an average)

Forecasted data

Growth rate: 2006-2013 = 3.78%2014-2030 = 3.97%

(As an average)

70 mil. person

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

GHG Emissions Inventory: 2000-2013

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

GH

G e

mis

sions

(Mt

CO

2eq

)

Energy Industrial processes Agriculture LULUCF Waste Net emissions (Include LULLCF)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Fin

al e

ner

gy c

onsu

mpti

on (

kto

e)

GH

G e

mis

sions

(Gg C

O2eq

)

Energy Industrial processes Agriculture Waste Total final energy consumption

Trends of GHG emissions and Total final energy consumption: 2000-2013

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

Source: Thailand’s third national communication

Thailand’s GHG mitigation: NAMA 2020 and NDC 2030

GHG emissions in the BaU scenario and Thailand’s INDC by 2030

555

439.4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2030BaU 2030INDC

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Mt-

CO

2eq)

BaU emissions 20% GHG reduction Waste IPPU Residential Commercial Transport Industry Power

GHG mitigation

- Power 24 Mt-CO2eq

- Industry 43 Mt-CO2eq

- Transport 41 Mt-CO2eq

- Residential 4 Mt-CO2eq- Commercial 1 Mt-CO2eq

- IPPU 0.6 Mt-CO2eq

- Waste 2 Mt-CO2eq

Total GHG mitigation

115.6 Mt-CO2eq

GHG

mitigation

7

THAILAND NDC ROADMAP 2030

NIES & Mizuho Visit30 March 2018

AIM Training Workshop in ThailandAIM/Enduse Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand

11-15 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy maker)

AIM/Enduse Workshop11-15 June 2018

• Redefine the energy system’s description in the residential and the commercial sectors

• Redesign the EV technologies in the transport sector

• Recalculate the service demand projection in all energy sectors

• Restructure the industry service-flow diagram such as cement industry in the IPPU sector

AIM Training Workshop in Thailand

CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand

26 June 2018 (Beginning level for Policy Makers)

Participant: Bhutan, Thailand: ONEP & CITC, SIIT-TU, JICA-Thailand

AIM Training Workshop in Thailand

CGE Training Workshop at SIIT-TU, Thailand

26 June 2018 (Policy Dialogue: Climate Policy Assessment)

Present Status of Thailand CGE

• Development of Thailand CGE model – Base case

• Assessment of the effects of GHG mitigation on the economy – The analyses of Thailand’s NDC 2030• BAU scenario, and five GHG mitigation scenarios: 20%, 25%, 30%,

40% and 50%.

• In addition, the peak emission scenario to analyze the feasibility of zero GHG emissions in Thailand to pursue efforts to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as considered in the Paris Agreement were also assessed.

• Manuscript submitted to the International Journal

13

Sectoral Classification in the Thailand CGE (31 sectors & 31 Commodities)

14

Sectoral Classification

Crops

Livestock

Forestry

Fishery

Railways

Road Transport

Water Transport

Air Transport

Other Transport Services

Agriculture &

Forestry

Transport

Water Supply System

Communication

Trade

Other Services

Services

Metal & Non-metal Ore

Food, Beverages & Tobacco Products

Textile

Paper & Printing

Chemical Industries

Rubber & Plastic Products

Non-metallic Products

Basic Metal

Fabricated Metal Products

Machinery

Construction

Other Manufacturing Products

Industries

Coal & Lignite

Crude Oil

Petroleum Products

Gas

Electricity

Energy Sectors

OthersOther Sectors

GHG Emission Trajectories in Thailand’s Scenarios

15

Scenarios Description

BAU-NDCext(an NDC extendedscenario)

GHG emissions during 2010-2030 to be the same as that given in the Thai NDC study. From 2030 – 2050, the GHG emission is estimated to grow at an average growth rate of 3.1%

ERT20 A constant 20% reduction during 2030-2050

ERT25 A constant 25% reduction during 2030-2050

ERT30 A constant 30% reduction during 2030-2050

ERT40 A constant 40% reduction during 2030-2050

ERT50 A constant 50% reduction during 2030-2050

ERT90 90% GHG emission reduction by 2050, leading to zero emissions by 2060

Impacts on Thailand’s GDP

16

GDP in all Scenarios Reduction in GDP under the ERT Scenarios

GDP would attain a slightly higher growth rate of 0.2%

than the expected GDP growth rates of 3.78% in the BAU-

NDCext scenario

The imposition of GHG emission reduction targets will

have negative effects on the national economy with a

decline in the country’s GDP.

With 22.5% reductions, the GDP loss would be severe in 2045 under the ERT90 scenario

19

Impacts on GHG Emissions & GHG Intensity

Variations in Sectoral Share in Total GHG Emissions in all Scenarios

GHG Intensity in all Scenarios

Major GHG emission reductions required is from the electricity & the industry sectors

•The figure suggests that early actions should be taken to

achieve net zero CO2 emissions.

•CO2 emissions should peak in 2015 at US$1,000 /tCO2 in the

CCS_REHH scenario.

•However, CO2 emissions can peak five years later in the

CCS_RELW scenario at US$1,000/tCO2.

•Because of renewable energy deployment and fossil fuel based

with CCS and BECCS, CO2 emissions are completely removed

from the power sector in the CCS_REHH scenario.

Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees

(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)

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2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

An

nu

al T

hai

lan

d c

arb

on

em

issi

on

s (M

t-C

O2

yr -1

)

BL T0_NUC_RELW T25_NUC_RELW T50_NUC_RELW T200_NUC_RELW T500_NUC_RELW T1000_NUC_RELW

T0_CCS_RELW T25_CCS_RELW T50_CCS_RELW T200_CCS_RELW T500_CCS_RELW T1000_CCS_RELW T0_NUC_REHH

T25_NUC_REHH T50_NUC_REHH T200_NUC_REHH T500_NUC_REHH T1000_NUC_REHH T0_CCS_REHH T25_CCS_REHH

T50_CCS_REHH T200_CCS_REHH T500_CCS_REHH T1000_CCS_REHH

Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees

(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)

Strategy

4

Climate

change

awareness

Strategy

5

Capacity

building

Strategy

1

CCS &

BECCS• Electricity

generation• Manufacturin

g industry

Strategy

3

CO2

emission

taxes

Strategy

2

Stringent

RE• Electricity

generation• Vehicle

• Keeping net cumulative carbon emissions virtually zero

can be achieved during 2030-2050.

• Zero CO2 emissions strategies

• CCS technologies (fossil-based fuel plants integrated

with CCS and BECCS)

• Stringent RE target

• CO2 emission taxes (US$500-US$1000 per tCO2)

• Climate change awareness through international

organizations’ scientific reports and media

• Capacity building within organizations, government

offices and communities

0123456789

101112

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Cu

mu

lati

ve c

arb

on

em

issi

on

s fr

om

20

10

-20

50 (G

t-C

O2)

Cumulative carbon emissions from 2010-2030 (Gt-CO2)

BaU T0_NUC_RELW T25_NUC_RELWT50_NUC_RELW T200_NUC_RELW T500_NUC_RELWT1000_NUC_RELW T0_CCS_RELW T25_CCS_RELWT50_CCS_RELW T200_CCS_RELW T500_CCS_RELWT1000_CCS_RELW T0_NUC_REHH T25_NUC_REHH

Note: light green shade = The CCS scenariosgrey shade = The nuclear scenarios

Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees

(Carbon Management, Accepted OCT 2018)

24

Climate Change Mitigation in Agriculture, Forestry And Other Land Use (AFOLU)

Sector in Thailand

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0

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80

2015 2020 2030 2040 2050

GH

G e

mis

sion

[M

tCO

₂eq

/yr]

Agriculture

Emission and removals from soils

Forest and grassland conversion

Changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks

AFOLU Net Emission

LULUCF Net emission

0

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NC

P 5

10

25

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NC

P 5

10

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Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e] Carbon price [US$/tCO₂e]

2030 2050

Mit

iga

tio

n p

ote

nti

al

(MtC

O₂e

)

LULUCF

Agriculture

This paper analyzed mitigation/sequestration potentials in the AFOLU sector at different carbon prices by using AFOLU-B.

Acknowledgement: Prof. Yuzuru Matsuoka andDr. Tomoko Hasegawa

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE

GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES

Population

26

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Reg

iste

red

po

pu

lati

on

(T

ho

usa

nd

per

son

)

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

An

nu

al g

row

th r

ate

(%)

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES“RCP4.5” and “RCP2.6”

RCP4.5 RCP2.6RCP4.5 RCP2.6

Targeting the emission scenarios through the RCPs RCPs

DEVELOPMENT OF LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FOR THAILAND 1.5 DEGREES

“SSP2 and “SSP1

SSP1 SSP2

SSP2 is close to present situation

SSP1 SSP2

SSP1 is expected in future

Developing the two-dimensional classifications of the IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs

GDP

SSPs

Representative Concentration Pathways “RCP

RCP4.5 RCP2.6

Integrated assessment model in terms of “RCPs x SSPs

Integrated assessment model in terms of “RCPs x SSPs x SPAs

Thailand s emission scenarios “ESs

ES1 ES2 ES3 ES4

GHG GHG GHG GHG

SPA?

GHG

SPA??

GHG

SPA???

GHG

SPA????

GHG

SSP1 SSP2 SSP1 SSP2

Developing the three-dimensional classifications of the IAM in terms of “RCPs x SSPs x SPAs

SPAs

GHG

Thailand's National Strategy for 20 yearsRoyal Thai Government Gazette, 13 OCT 2018

Thailand’s NDC Roadmap 2030Overall GHG reduction target = 115.6 MtCO2eq (20.8%)

IPPU

0.6 Mt CO2eq

(0.1%)

Energy & Transport

113 Mt CO2eq

(20.4%)

Waste

2 Mt CO2eq

(0.3%)