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SouthChinaSea

[EastSea,

West

Philippine

Sea]

RegionalStudies(Security)

AustralianCommand

and

Staff

College

October25,2011

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1. Overview. on c ng a ms

3. RecentDevelo ment

4. DriversofSecurityTensions

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StrategicImportance

or ssecon us es sea neso

communication Hydrocarbonresources(oilandgas)

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Sea

Lines

of

Communication

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100,000ships

transit

Straits

of

Malacca

and

Singapore annually

>25%ofworldstradedgoodspassthrough

SouthChina

Sea

25%ofalloilshipmentscarriedbyseapass

.

missioncubicmetresperday)

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Semi

enclosed

seaDangerous

grounds

ParacelIslands

Macc es ie Ban

SpratlyIslands

Ka ayaanIs an

Group

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PatternsofOccupation

BinhMinh02

Incident

ReedBank

Incident

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South

China

Seaclaimants:

Taiwan ROC

ChinaVietnam

ThePhilippines

Ma aysiaBrunei

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(UNCLOS)

Doesnot

provide

for

settlement

of

sovereigntyissues

Establishestransitregimes

Territorialsea,

Exclusive

Economic

Zone,

high

seas

(note:internationalwaters US)

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EEZ

a ms

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KeyDevelopments

January1974ChinaseizessouthernParacels

1992ScramblefortheSpratlys

1995ChinaoccupiesMischiefReef

2002Declaration

on

Conduct

of

Parties

in

the

SouthChinaSea(DOC)

May2009Submissionsonextended

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a. holdingdialogues

and

exchange

of

views

andmilitaryofficials;

b. ensurin ustandhumanetreatmentof

allpersons

who

are

either

in

danger

or

in

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c. notifying,on

a

voluntary

basis,

other

Partiesconcernedofan im endin

joint/combined militaryexercise;and

d. exchanging,onavoluntarybasis,

relevantinformation.

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a. marineenvironmentalprotection;

b. marinescientific

research;

.

sea;

.

e. combatingtransnationalcrime,includingbut

not

imite

totra ic ing

in

i icit

rugs,

piracy

andarmedrobberyatsea,andillegaltrafficin

arms.

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Chinas9

dash

layingclaim

to

historic

oftheSouth

ChinaSea)

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UNCommissiononLimitsofContinentalShelf May13,2009

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3.RecentDevelopments

200710SouthChinaSeatensionsreemerge

Aggressiveunilateral

fishing

ban

imposed

by

China

2009 USNS Im eccable incident 2010Chinascoreinterest

u y na ona n eres

2011Chineseaggressiveassertiveness

July2011

Guidelines

to

Implement

DOC

Oct.2011ChinaVietnamA reement

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Date IncidentsinvolvingChina/ChineseVessels

25/2 PLANFrigatefiresatFilipinofishingboats

2/3 MVVeritasVoyagerforcedfromReedBank

24/4 PLAN/CMS

ships

unload

construction

materials

11/5 TwojetaircraftintrudeintoRPairspace

11/5 Chinaimposesunilateralfishingban

21/5 CMS/SalvageShipsintrudeintoSouthernBank

26/5 BinhMinh

2seismic

cable

cut

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Seapolicy

secondlesson

Lea ers iptransitionatnextcongresso t e

ChineseCommunistParty

Buildup

of

civilian

maritime

jurisdiction

enforcementfleet

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Energy

Security

National

sovereignty ChinaUSgeostrategicrivalry

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4a.

Energy

Chinas

Ener

Needs

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Oiland

Gas

inEast

Asia

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EnergySecurity

Chineseestimatesare7or8times

greaterthan

US/Japanese

estimates

billionbarrelsofoilreserves

US:28 i ion arre so oi

China:SouthChinaSeaoilreservesare

nearlyas

large

as

Saudi

Arabia

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EnergySecurity

ChinaestimatesthattheSouthChinaSea

14times

the

estimates

of

its

oil

reserves

and

mesmore an sgasreserves

China

claims

that

it

looses

about

20

million

tonso o annua yora out o tstota

offshoreproductionduetotheactivitiesof

countr es

nt e

out

na

ea

Peakoil?

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800deep

water

wells

in

the

East

Sea,

Yellow

producing500milliontonsofoilby2020.

reservesby40%innexttwodecades

etnam s

omest cgas

eman

w

tr p e

y

2025(WorldBank)

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ChinaseconomywillovertaketheU.S.

Militarymodernization

+

Anticarrierballisticmissile

FirstandSecondislandchain

YulinNaval

Base,

Hainan

Island

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a nan

Island

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FirstandSecondIslandChains

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ChinasStringofPearls

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Base,Sanya

ug o

28Feb

08

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YulinNavalBase

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USNSImpeccableIncident2009

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Maritimedomainiscon ested

andcontested

Regionalarmsdynamic

Submarines

uidedmissile

fri ates

antishipmissiles,stealthtechnology

Territorialdefence thePhilippines

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Conclusions

Sovereigntydisputesintractable

DOCGuidelines

a

work

in

progress

Morebinding

Code

of

Conduct?

ChinaUSdifferonmilitaryactivitiesin

IncidentsatSeaAgreement?

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Conclusions

Forcemodernizationhasresultedin

maritime

domain

becoming

more

con estedandcontested

Energynationalismontherise

Resourcecompet t oncou aggravate

maritimetensions

MaritimeSecurity

on

regional

agenda

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SouthChinaSea

[EastSea,

West

Philippine

Sea]

RegionalStudies(Security)

AustralianCommand

and

Staff

College

October25,2011

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39/39

PremierPhamVanDongs theGovernmentofthe

DemocraticRepublicof

e er

e er

o

na Vietnam(DRVN)recognizesandsupportsthedeclaration

dated4thSe tember,1958of

theGovernmentofthe

PeoplesRepublic

of

China

determinin territorial

territorialwaters.

TheGovernmentoftheDRVN

giveinstructionstoitsState

bodiestorespectthe12mile

theirrelations

with

the

[PRC]

inmaritimeareas.