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The 192 different election campaigns for the Conservative Party that almost spoilt Labour’s party
Entry to the JICREG Awards 2005
2 making media make a difference
Overview
This is the story of how we persuaded the Conservative Party to increase their spend in local press from 3% in the 2001 General Election to 43% in 2005
It is a well known fact that General Elections are won in marginal seats and determined by a few people ‘the floating voters’
However this is a very difficult strategy to implement:Hundreds of local constituencies to targetOften geographically disparate (especially for the Conservatives who have a higher rural vote)Many different messages required to sway voting intentions
For this reason political party campaigns tend to spend their money across national newspapers and outdoor: in 2001 the Conservatives and Labour both spent 30% of their budgets at a local level in any local media.
In 2005 we found a way of understanding floating voters by constituency and then used JICREG and other mapping systems to construct 192 local media campaigns with locally tailored messages to each of our 192 target seats
This increased their spend in local media to 80% in 2005
3 making media make a difference
General Election 2005
BackgroundThe UK is split into 646 constituenciesIn order to gain a majority in Parliament and form the government, a party must win a minimum of 324 seats – giving it a majority of 1 seat
The ObjectiveTo turn over the Labour Party’s majority of 167 seats from the 2001 General ElectionTo protect the seats currently held by the Conservative PartyTo increase the number of seats, and share of the vote held by the Conservative Party
166
413
5228
0
100
200
300
400
500
ConsLabLibOther
40.7%
18.3%
9.3%
31.7%
Cons
Lab
Lib
Other
SeatsTotal of 659 Seats
Party share of vote
2001 General Election Result
A huge task!
4 making media make a difference
Our Approach
To focus the campaign in 192 of the 646 constituencies (29.7% of the UK) with strong, sustained local activity
Fighting the battle where it will be won
Identifying 167 seats that would require the lowest swing from Labour or the Liberal Democrats, to the Conservatives
Protect 25 seats currently held by the Conservatives that are most vulnerable to other parties – i.e. where the Conservatives hold a slim majority
5 making media make a difference
How our approach was different
Producing 192 individual media plans – one for each target constituency with individually tailored creative
Traditionally, political parties have predominantly used national media
The incumbent agency, recommended the use of a national approach – siting a local approach as too expensive, too complicated, and too time consuming
6 making media make a difference
First ThirdSeat Swing %
We prioritised the 192 constituencies
Bottom ThirdSeat Swing %
Second ThirdSeat Swing % Seat Swing %
167 New Target Seats 25 currentMajority Increase
Source: Electoral commission/MPG profiles
Wrekin -4.32Wolverhampton South West -4.26Finchley and Golders Green -4.25Ribble South -4.11Yeovil -4.08Hemel Hempstead -4.08Putney -4.04Gloucester -4.02Bristol West -4.01Preseli Pembrokeshire -4.01Hove -3.78Scarborough & Whitby -3.77Dartford -3.69Southport -3.65Shrewsbury & Atcham -3.59Peterborough -3.58Redditch -3.35Calder Valley -3.26Eastleigh -3.21Devon North -3.03Enfield North -3.00Harwich -2.70Gillingham -2.69Rugby & Kenilworth -2.67I lford North -2.63Teignbridge -2.54Romsey -2.45Newbury -2.38Wellingborough -2.31Forest of Dean -2.30Thanet South -2.27Hammersmith & Fulham -2.25Selby -2.13Hornchurch -2.08Milton Keynes North East -1.94Ludlow -1.89Bexleyheath & Crayford -1.82Clwyd West -1.61Shipley -1.55Wyre Forest -1.54Welwyn Hatfield -1.40Hereford -1.08Devon West and Torridge -1.07Brecon & Radnorshire -1.00Northampton South -0.87Somerton & Frome -0.63Kettering -0.62Guildford -0.56Lancaster & Wyre -0.46Dorset Mid & Poole North -0.44Monmouth -0.43Norfolk North -0.43Weston-Super-Mare -0.36Braintree -0.36Dorset South -0.17Cheadle -0.04
Blackpool North & Fleetwood -6.72Bolton West -6.69Cleethorpes -6.62Enfield Southgate -6.62Harrow West -6.60Batley & Spen -6.57Worcester -6.52Harlow -6.52Norwich North -6.43Reading East -6.41Gedling -6.39Colchester -6.35Wirral South -6.34Rossendale & Darwen -6.31Cheltenham -6.28Brighton Kemptown -6.28Ynys Mon -6.25Pudsey -6.23Birmingham Edgbaston -6.22Leeds North West -6.17Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South -6.15Morecambe & Lunesdale -6.11Corby -6.04Broxtowe -5.99Watford -5.99Dover -5.78Tamworth -5.71Stafford -5.67Great Yarmouth -5.65Carshalton & Wallington -5.60Gravesham -5.57Warwick & Leamington -5.56Chatham & Aylesford -5.46Bradford West -5.43Sutton & Cheam -5.42Pendle -5.38Hastings & Rye -5.23Burton -5.22Wansdyke -5.21Vale of Glamorgan -5.20Cornwall South East -5.19Saint Albans -5.10Richmond Park -5.05Wirral West -4.98Colne Valley -4.94Medway -4.90Falmouth & Camborne -4.83Brigg & Goole -4.82Stourbridge -4.77High Peak -4.66Sittingbourne & Sheppey -4.63Keighley -4.62Stroud -4.57Wimbledon -4.55Elmet -4.54Croydon Central -4.34
Taunton 0.21Orpington 0.26Boston & Skegness 0.64Beverley & Holderness 0.84Surrey South West 0.87Bedfordshire South West 0.88Basingstoke 0.92Castle Point 1.24Dorset West 1.43Upminster 1.83Haltemprice & Howden 2.17Isle of Wight 2.23Canterbury 2.29Eastbourne 2.41Bury St Edmunds 2.49Bosworth 2.53Wells 2.72Hexham 2.98Uxbridge 3.14Chipping Barnet 3.18Westmorland & Lonsdale 3.28Gosport 3.29Altrincham & Sale West 3.38Norfolk North West 3.40Wycombe 3.52
Eltham -10.35Norwich South -10.35Coventry South -10.32Stockton South -10.28Sherwood -10.21Saint Ives -10.20Dewsbury -10.16Stevenage -10.09Birmingham Hall Green -10.05Gower -9.90Tynemouth -9.88Wakefield -9.64Plymouth Sutton -9.62Swindon North -9.57Northampton North -9.51Basildon -9.47Ceredigion -9.41Dudley South -9.38Halesowen & Rowley Regis -9.37Cornwall North -9.11Hendon -9.08Waveney -9.07Leicestershire North West -9.06Conwy -9.05Leeds North East -8.91Oxford West and Abingdon -8.91Vale of Clwyd -8.91Northavon -8.86Dudley North -8.82Chorley -8.80Nuneaton -8.70Crawley -8.56Swindon South -8.46Carlisle -8.17Winchester -8.14Warrington South -8.12Amber Valley -8.12Truro & St Austell -8.02Derby North -7.92Portsmouth South -7.77Milton Keynes South West -7.69Chester, City of -7.68Twickenham -7.66Halifax -7.59Bedford -7.59Derbyshire South -7.56Bury North -7.29Loughborough -7.21Copeland -7.14Erewash -7.13Cardiff North -7.13Torbay -7.05Portsmouth North -6.96Battersea -6.86Staffordshire Moorlands -6.84
7 making media make a difference
We quantified the potential of local press on a national scale
N E Scotland
Central Scotland
Border
N East
NW
Yorkshire
Wales & West
Central
E. England
SouthSW
London
N E Scotland
Central Scotland
Border
N East
NW
Yorkshire
Wales & West
Central
E. England
SouthSW
London
Key50%+ 40-49% 30–39% 20–29% < 20%
Coverage Adults 18+
Regional Press National Press
Outside London & South East, Regional Press has much greater penetration than National Press – this is even more defined on a micro-constituency level
Source. NRS April 2003-March 2004: National press – Mail, Express, Guardian & Times
8 making media make a difference
We then used JICREG to map all local papers in every 192 constituencies to work out local press’ coverage in area
Chester
A41
A49
A49
A5
A483
A534A534
A534A5156
A5156
A534
A495
A483
A483
A525A525
A534
A500
A51
A5020
A557
A5268
A5116
A5116A56
A483
A51
A54
A51
A41
A41A5117
A550
A533A56
A556A556
A55
A56
A5117
A41
A550
A556
A530
A5268
A533
A49
A49
A494
A55
A55
A54
A55
M56
M56
M6
M53
M53
M56M56
M53
Barnton
Cuddington
Frodsham
Gresford
Haslington
Haw arden
HelsbyHolyw ell
Llangollen
Llay
Middlew ich
Mold
Northop
Penycae
Rhosllanerchrugog
Ruabon
Shavington
Weaverham
Whitchurch
Willaston
Buckley
Connah's Quay
Flint
Heswall
Nantwich
Neston
Northwich
Winsford
Wrexham
Chester
Crewe
Ellesmere Port
Chester & District Standard
Chester Chronicle
Chester Mail
CHESTER
9 making media make a difference
We then looked at 192 different local press vs national press comparisons: example in Chester
Local Press Option in Chester
2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG)
Chester Mail 40,186Daily Post (NW) 3,230Total Chester coverage43,416
Equivalent National Press Option In Chester
We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency
4 titles used:Daily Telegraph 3,074Daily Express 3,989Daily Mail 7,951The Sun 8,161Total Chester coverage 23,175
Local press deliver twice the coverage of an equivalent national press schedule
10 making media make a difference
We then needed to compare the cost of local vs national across
each 192 constituencies
Local Press Option in Chester
2 titles used (in constituency readership - JICREG)
Chester Mail 40,186Daily Post (NW) 3,230Total Chester coverage 43,416
But Daily Post NW also covered the constituencies of:
Wirral 16,990Chorley 104Southport 1,144Chester 3,230Total 21,468
Therefore Chester represented 15% of the Daily Post total readership
Adult CPT for Full Page Mono = £30
Equivalent National Press Option In Chester
We used JICREG readership data to work out the readership of these titles in the Chester constituency
4 titles used:Daily Telegraph 3,074Daily Express 3,989Daily Mail 7,951The Sun 8,161Total 23,175
With then divided the total cost of this schedule by 192 to get Chester’s proportion of the national press investment
Adult CPT in Chester for Full Page Mono = £34
Local press 12% less expensive in Chester than equivalent national press schedule
11 making media make a difference
We then used JICREG to filter all our individual title selections – weighted by priority
1. Coverage by Constituency
2. Overspill into other target constituencies e.g from Chester to the Wirral, Chorley & Southport
4. Advertising to editorial ratio
5. Paid for vs free
Source: JICREG
12 making media make a difference
A5111
A6514
A6514
A60
A610
A610
A52
A614
A6
A52A52
A52
A52
M1
M1
M1
Borrow ash
Breaston
Codnor
Kilburn
Ockbrook
Ruddington
Beeston
EastwoodHeanor
Hucknall
Ilkeston
Long Eaton
Ripley
StaplefordWest Bridgford
Nottingham
Derby Evening Telegraph
Nottingham EvePost
Eastwood & KimberleyAdvertiser
Ilkeston & Ripley Trader
Long Eaton Advertiser
Long Eaton Trader
Nottingham Recorder
Nottingham Topper
Sunday Mercury
Paid for evening titleCirculation in the area
is 116Area Coverage 0.33%
Paid for evening titleCirculation in the area
is 9,962Area Coverage 30.34%Paid for weekly title
Circulation in the area is 2,058
Area Coverage 6.17%
Free weekly titleCirculation in the area
is 11,053Area Coverage 18.88%
Paid for weekly titleCirculation in the area
is 542Area Coverage 1.84%
Free weekly titleCirculation in the area
is 25,644Area Coverage 37.97%
Free weekly titleCirculation in the area
is 30,897Area Coverage 47.57%
Free weekly titleCirculation in the area
is 29,495Area Coverage 50.39%
Paid for titleCirculation in the area
is 7Area Coverage 0.02%
Nottingham Showcase
Illkeston Savoy
Nottingham Savoy
Nottingham Screen Room
Nottingham Royal Centre
Nottingham Broadway
Stapleford – 5 x 48 Sheets
Beeston – 5 x 48 sheets
Nottingham – 5 x 48 sheets
We then added all the poster sites and cinema complexes to
all our maps
13 making media make a difference
Giving us an example constituency campaign
Broxtowe
7 x 48-Sheets&
3 x 6-Sheets6 x 48-Sheets
8 x 48-Sheets&
3 x 6-Sheets
11 x 48-Sheets&
4 x 6-Sheets
11 x 48-Sheets&
4 x 6-Sheets
12 x 48-Sheets&
6 x 6-Sheets
15 x 48-Sheets&
4 x 6-Sheets
F2 Feb F2 MayB2 AprF2 AprB2 MarF2 MarB2 Feb
FullPageMono
FullPageMono
FullPageMono
FullPageMono
FullPageMono
FullPageMono
Nottingham Savoy80 seconds
3 Weeks
Out
door
RegionalPress
Cinema
Derby Evening TelegraphEastwood & Kimberley AdvertiserLong Eaton TraderNottingham & Long Eaton TopperNottingham Evening PostNottingham Recorder
The same templateDifferent use of outdoor, regional press, and cinema
14 making media make a difference
We understood that voters vote on local and national issues in General Elections and tailored all our copy to the local area
15 making media make a difference
The result was a regional press campaign of
unprecedented Scale
The scale of this regional press campaign was unprecedented for a political party – who usually use national media
Using 270 titles in 6 weekly bursts with 1,324 individual pieces of copy
Providing individual copy for every newspaper, using localised statistics on Tax, Crime, Health, and Asylum – relevant to each individual constituency
16 making media make a difference
2005 General Election Result
At the 2001 election Labour had 9% lead in the share of the vote: at the 2005 election this was reduced to 2.9%
The most accurate opinion poll, NOP, showed a shift from a 12% gap pre-election to 3% at close.
Labour’s majority of 167 seats was reduced to 67 seats
The Conservatives won 450,000 extra votes, whilst Labour lost 1.2m
The swing from Labour to Conservative was 50% higher in our 192 target seats than nationally
The supposed resurgence in the Lib Dem vote actually declined in our 192 seats with the Tory’s stealing 5 seats from the Lib Dems
17 making media make a difference