The 2004 Challenge

Al FromFounder and Chief Executive Officer

Democratic Leadership Council

June 20, 2001

www.ndol.org

Closing the Culture Gap

50 5050

49

50

47.9

49.349.5

46.547

47.548

48.549

49.550

50.5

President ElectoralVote

Senate House

Democrat Republican

Political ParityThe Two Parties Are at Near Equal Strength

Parties at ParityThe Reasons

The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate

The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing

A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era

The New Electorate

PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS

Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------

18

46

27

70

01020304050607080

WorkingClass

MiddleClass

UpperMid Class

OwnStock

An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters

3342

61

74

01020304050607080

1980 2000

College Grads Some College

Educational Attainment

Percentage of voters with a college degree

8981

52

9 10 13

07

25

0 28

0102030405060708090

100

1980 2000 2050 Projected

White Black Hispanic Asian

Diversity

38.8

9.27.5 8.5

17.714.614.5 13.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

1952 2000

Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery

From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote

26

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1996 2000

Wired VotersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet

Generational Change

In the 2000 Election

Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters.

The dominant generations are the “skeptical generations”— the Baby Boomers, GenXers and GenYers.

40

3033

2924

21 20 20

36

49 4750

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1992 1996 2000

Conservatives Liberals Moderates

Political Views

The New Democrat Philosophy

America’s Basic Bargain

Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All

Core Principles

The

New Democrat Philosophy

Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook

Empowering Government

Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values

15 1429

6882

85 8672

3218

53

47

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Democrat Republican

The Middle Class ChallengePercentage of Electorate Won by Democrat

-30-20-10

010203040

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

No HS HS Grad Some Col Col Grad Post Grad

The Middle Class Challenge 2

Democratic Vote by Educational Level

4944 42 40 42 41

4650

55 57 55 56

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Under15K

15-30K 30-50K 50-75K 75-100K Over100K

Gore Bush

Missing the Mark

Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000

Missing the TargetThe Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000

Income

Education

-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0

Post GradCollege GradSome CollegeHigh School GradHS Dropout

Over 100K75 - 100K50 – 75K30 – 50K15 – 30K

Under 15K

Message Matters

If a candidate for President said this, would it have made youmuch more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhat less likely, ormuch less likely to vote for them for President?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”

MuchMoreLikely

More/LessLikely

I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead ofpoint fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to work together in abipartisan manner to get things done for America.

46 79/15

I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all, demandsresponsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with agovernment that equips all Americans with the tools they need foreconomic success.

41 78/15

I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up and fightno matter what powerful forces might be on the other side – big oilcompanies, big polluters, big pharmaceutical companies, and bigtobacco. This election is about the people v. the powerful.

41 70/24

(All Voters)

Message Matters

Key Voter Categories—Much More Likely

Gore Voters

Bush Voters

Bush Swing

Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32

-3

7281

51

24

-12-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1996 2000

White Black Hispanic

The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Race

The Cultural Gap

National Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24

The Cultural GapNational Democratic Margin

All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Attend/Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) -12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 White Cath 25/whites +5 +7 -7 +14

The Cultural Gap

National Democratic Margin All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23) -30 (25) -25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9) -39 (12) -45 -52 +7 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16

Swing States GOP BaseDemo Base

The Swing States

The Swing States: Electoral VotesDemocratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Mass 12 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 10 New Jersey 15 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260

Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 135

In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143

Closing the Cultural GapLessons From the Clinton Victories

Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not Redistribution

Emphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues Like Crime and Welfare

Stand for Big Ideas, Not Big Government

Support Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents Raise Kids

Support a Strong National Defense

Avoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like Abortion or Guns

The Winning Coalition in 2004

A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century

Expand Beyond the Democratic Base Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”