The 2012 Aiken County Exit Poll:Overview of Key Findings

Performed by USCA Research Methods classProfessor Bob Botsch, Director

Erin McCulloch, Research Assistant

Gimme Shelter! I built that! Beech Island Community Center

Methodology

• N = 753• Sample design:

– 10 representative precincts– Stratified by gender, region of county. Precinct size– Systematic sampling– Two time clusters

• Response rate: 70%• Sample error: +/- 4%• Successfully matched presidential vote

– Romney: actual 63%; sample 60%– Obama: actual 36%; sample 37%

2012 Vote by Party: an exercise in party loyalty—GOP advantage: 51%/33%

Vote StrongDem(20%)

ModDem

(10%)

LeanDem (3%)

Indep

(16%)

LeanRep

(7%)

Mod Rep

(18%)

StrongRep

(26%)

Obama(37%)

97% 96% 85% 44% 2% 1% 0%

Rmney(60%)

4% 5% 15% 56% 98% 99% 100%

Distant Hints of Change: Groups of Voters Trending Toward Democrats

• Group(% of all voters)

All VotersYoung (<30) (16%)

Single

(23%)

Non-South(16%)

% Dem 32% 40% 54% 41%

% Rep 51% 45% 29% 34%

How These Groups are Different

•

Group All Voters Young (<30) Single Non-South

Obama is Muslim

32% 27% 21% 16%

Confederate Flag--Keep Up

50% 39% 29% 18%

Blacks too powerful

28% 20% 20% 14%

Hispanics too powerful

21% 13% 13% 12%

Gays too powerful

31% 18% 18% 24%

Atheists too powerful

29% 18% 19% 19%

Oppose Gay marriage

49% 32% 28% 36%

Tea Party Suppt: Drop from 2010 (43% to 30%) & Generally to the Far Right

Area/Issue Democrats Independt Non TP Rep’s TP Rep’s

white 37% 74% 95% 98%

conservative 9% 35% 80% 92%

moderate 21% 38% 15% 4%

Mean age 46 yrs 49 yrs 48 yrs 53 yrs

Family Income

app $36,000

app $46,000

app $57,000

app $65,000

Married 47% 62% 67% 81%

Continued-1Area/Issue Democrats Independnt Non TP Rep’s TP Rep’s

Worse off 4 years ago

8% 34% 64% 73%

Obama to blame

4% 14% 49% 66%

Obama Muslim

4% 13% 47% 58%

People prefer

handouts

16% 18% 37% 36%

Strong over Helpful leaders

16% 37% 54% 69%

Want leadrs to

compromse

79% 92% 77% 73%

Continued-2Area/Issue Democrats Independnt Non TP Rep’s TP Rep’s

Abortion: Pro-choice

69% 61% 40% 23%

Abortion: Pro-life

8% 9% 16% 19%

Cut programs to reduc defct

14% 43% 62% 80%

Health care by free mkt

4% 27% 33% 62%

Insurance cover birth control

70% 54% 36% 25%

Ext ALL tax cuts 21% 28% 34% 64%

Preserve Soc Security

85% 88% 86% 80%

Continued-3Area/Issue Democrats Independnt Non TP Rep’s TP Rep’s

Keep Confed Flag flying

10% 33% 54% 66%

Oppose Gay Marriage

22% 28% 66% 75%

Gays too powerful

17% 15% 43% 42%

Atheists too powerful

18% 12% 34% 41%

Blacks too powerful

9% 19% 39% 40%

Hispanics too

powerful

11% 13% 25% 26%

Continued-4Area/Issue Democrats Independnt Non TP Rep’s TP Rep’s

Unions too powerful

32% 38% 63% 75%

Corporatins too

powerful

75% 71% 61% 45%

Banks too powerful

73% 62% 54% 59%

Religious Fundamntst

28% 14% 33% 39%

Rel extrmly imprtant in vote choice

21% 11% 29% 38%

Nat. South self-identity

60% 59% 73% 70%

Obama Independent Vote Depressed by White Independents—Ethnicity!

Election Year: 2004 2008 2012All Independents% Kerry (’04) or Obama (‘08/12)

42%

45%

40%

White Indepents% Kerry (’04) or Obama (‘08/12)

41%

39%

28%

White Independents

% felt Blacks too much power

Not asked

15%

19%

White Independents

% think Obama is Muslim

Not asked

16%

27%

“Makers and Takers” as Seen Through Partisan Lenses

Opinion: Republicans Democrats

People want to Work

31% 52%

People Prefer Govt Handouts

37% 17%

Both play an equal role

30% 26%

Seeing People as “Takers” Increases Romney Vote

Voting Choice

People Want to

Work

Equal Role

People Prefer Govt Handouts

Obama 52% 36% 19%

Romney 48% 64% 81%

Ethnic Antipathy Score (Blacks too much power; Muslim; Conf Flag—4 pt scale) Predicts Vote Among Whites

Eth-Ant Score

(%)

0

(28%)

1

(18%)

2

(23%)

3

(31%)

Obama 73% 32% 3% 0%

Romney 27% 68% 97% 100%

Dramatic Increase in White Voter Ethnic-Antipathy Scores since 2008

Eth-Ant Score:

0 1 2 3

2008 % 33% 40% 21% 6%

2012 % 28% 18% 23% 31%

Change -5 % pts -22% pts +2% pts +25% pts

The Gender/Marriage Gaps in Aiken County and the Nation

Group Aik% (Nat %) Obama

Aik % (Nat %) Romney

Diff: Ob – RmAik (Nat)

total voteall voters

37% (51%) 60% (48%) -23% (+3%)

males 36% (45%) 60% (52%) -24% (-7%)

females 38% (55%) 59% (44%) -21% (+11%)

married 28% (42%) 70% (56%) -42% (-14%)

single 61% (62%) 33% (35%) +28% (+27%)

Conclusions1. County heavily GOP 2. Some warning signs for the future

1. Young/single/in-migrants less GOP2. More socially moderate

3. Tea Party support decline from 2010 (-13 % points)4. Tea Party Republicans quite different across range of

issues/attitudes/identities5. indepndts closer to Dem’s—should vote more Dem (?)6. Obama hurt by white independent voters7. Republicans more likely to see people as lazy and Democrats to see

people as wanting to work8. Ethnic antipathy a major factor—as important as party (and

intertwined with party)9. Increasing racial polarization—dramatic increases in ethnic

antipathy since 200810. Gender Gap small in Aiken Co, but Marriage Gap huge