Date post: | 19-Jan-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | preston-campbell |
View: | 215 times |
Download: | 0 times |
1
THE 2014 MIDTERMS AND
THE 114TH CONGRESSDecember 4, 2014
2
Themes
Candidates matter
Money didn’t matter – both sides had enough
Message matters
Get-out-the-vote matters
Pollsters were off again – underestimated margins
3
The House
The House stood at 233 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and 3 vacancies.
Republicans were expected to retain control of the House and increase their majority.
4
The House – Results
Republicans have retained control of the House and now enjoy their largest majority since 1928.
Republicans: 244 (possibly 247)Democrats: 188Vacant: 3 (two in Louisiana, one in Arizona)
There are 58 new Members in the House. Notably, Republicans picked up 3 seats in New York
and 2 in Illinois. Democrats picked up 3 seats: 1 each in California,
Florida, and Nebraska.
5
Key Committee: Energy & Commerce
Fred Upton (R-MI) will stay on as Chairman and Frank Pallone (D-NJ) will become Ranking Member
Greg Walden (OR) (Chairman)Bob Latta (OH) (Vice Chairman)John Shimkus (IL)Marsha Blackburn (TN)Steve Scalise (LA)Leonard Lance (NJ)Brett Guthrie (KY)Pete Olson (TX)Mike Pompeo (KS)
Adam Kinzinger (IL)Gus Bilirakis (FL)Bill Johnson (OH)Billy Long (MO)Renee Ellmers (NC)Chris Collins (NY)Kevin Cramer (ND)Joe Barton (TX)Fred Upton (MI)
Subcommittee on Communications and Technology Republicans:
New Republicans:
Susan Brooks (IN)Larry Bucshon (IN)Chris Collins (NY)Kevin Cramer (ND)Bill Flores (NY)Rich Hudson (NC)Markwayne Mullin (OK)
6
The Senate
The 113th Congress had 45 Republicans, 53 Democrats, and 2 Independents.
Forecasts favored Republicans to become the majority in the Senate. 8 races were considered toss-ups The 6 closest races (KS, GA, IA, CO, AK, NC)
were with polling within 3% on November 3rd.
7
The Senate – Results
Republicans gained 8 seats – probably 9 (Louisiana)* – the higher end of projections:
Republicans: 53Democrats: 46Independent: 2
*December 6 LA run-off.
8
Key Committee: Commerce, Science and Transportation
John Thune (R-SD) will become Chairman.
Bill Nelson (D-FL) will become Ranking Member.
More Republicans will be added to the Committee due to the new composition of the Senate.
Don’t know who will be the Telecom subcommittee chairman or ranking member.
9
Considerations from This Election Candidates matter
Governors and state legislatures
Fundraising and spending parity
Demographics and voter turnout
Pollsters: they were right even while they were wrong
What to expect from a GOP-controlled Senate
10
Candidates Matter
Republicans ran very strong candidates, while Democrats fielded weaker ones. State examples:
Arkansas – Cotton strong, Pryor weak Colorado – Gardner strong, Udall weak Iowa – Ernst strong, Braley weak Kentucky – McConnell strong, Grimes weak New Hampshire – Shaheen strong, Brown weak In gubernatorial races, candidate weakness was a major
factor in Maryland, Illinois, and Massachusetts.
Reputation can only do so much. Family legacy didn’t matter – AK (Begich), AR (Pryor), NC
(Hagan)
11
State Governments
Republicans picked up 3 governorships, placing the totals at: 17 Democratic governors 31 Republican governors.
Republicans also control 68 out of 98 state legislative chambers.
In 23 states, Republicans have total control of the government.
12
Money in the Midterms
Spending had a limited impact on the outcomes.
New record for campaign spending – $4 billion.
Both parties had enough money. Republicans outspent Democrats by $110 million.
Key differences in fundraising: Republicans relied on outside allies, while Democrats were more dependent on direct donations.
13
Turnout
Turnout of 36.3% of voters – the lowest since WWII – compared with 61.6% in 2008 (Presidential election) 39.9% in 2010 (midterm) 58.2% in 2012 (Presidential election)
Voter turnout held steady for Republicans, who are typically favored in off years, while turnout for Democrats went down.
14
Democrats’ Losses
Maintained popularity with black voters (90%) Black turnout down by 9%
Lost ground with Asians (down from 72% in 2012 to 52%)
Turnout Fewer women turned out to the polls than
projected – down from 54% in 2012 to 52% in 2014
Young voters didn’t turn out – 20% of electorate 2012 vs. 13% 2014
15
Republicans’ Gains
Gained ground among Latinos (30% 2012 vs. 36% 2014) Many Latinos stayed home; turnout dropped 3%.
Seniors’ turnout increased about 8% from 2012
Midterms typically favor Republicans, as the electorate in off years is typically older and whiter than in Presidential years.
16
Message Matters
Democrats did not have a message Trying to distance themselves from Obama
Republicans ran against the President Voter frustration with Obama’s leadership
17
Pollsters: Right while being wrongPollsters predicted GOP gains in these midterms., but missed the margin of the victory.
Republican Senate candidates outperformed polls by 5.3%.
Pollsters over-projected voter turnout, especially among women.
Many pollsters assumed that Democrats’ grassroots voter turnout operations would be equal to past years, which did not happen.
18
Senate Races
State Last RCP Average
Republican Democrat
Alaska Sullivan +2.4 Sullivan (+3.7)*
Begich
Arkansas Cotton +7 Cotton (+17)* Pryor
Colorado Gardner +2.5 Gardner (+2.5)
Udall
Georgia Perdue +2.8 Perdue (+7.9) *
Nunn
Iowa Ernst +2.3 Ernst (+8.5) * Braley
Kansas Orman +0.8 Roberts (+10.8)*
Orman ✢
Kentucky McConnell +7.2 McConnell (+15.5)*
Grimes
Louisiana Cassidy✻ Landrieu
North Carolina
Hagan +1.2 Tillis (+1.7) Hagan
New Hampshire
Shaheen +0.8 Brown Shaheen (+3.2)
✢Independent candidate✻Likely, pending Dec. 6 runoff
19
What to expect from the 114th Congress
Republicans still need Democrats to move legislation in the Senate. This task may be complicated by emboldened House Republicans.
Republicans will want to show they can govern: 24 Republican Senators (vs. 9 Democrats) are up for
re-election in 2016. Many (7) in vulnerable seats – Obama won the state (NH, IL, .
Conflict between young , ideologically-motivated Members and Republican party leaders Several younger Senators have Presidential
aspirations for 2016.
20
Key Potential Points of Action Tax Reform
Especially the corporate code.
Entitlement reform Social security, Medicare, Medicaid Through budget reconciliation
Infrastructure The Highway Trust Fund is running out of money
Telecommunications If anything is to be accomplished, Republicans will need
Democrats’ votes, which means net neutrality will be the Democrats’ bargaining chip.
21Rewriting the Telecommunications Act
22
A Telecom Act rewrite is a priorityAfter nearly 20 Years, Congress intends to rewrite the Telecom Act to keep up with industry changes.
The alarm industry needs to determine whether it will be involved in the process.
If AICC chooses to do so, they must start now because items in early drafts have a better chance of ending up in the final product.
23
Concerns in the rewrite
The difference between now and the ‘96 Act is that service providers (AT&T, Verizon, etc.) are in the alarm business. Ensuring a level playing field is critical to
survival Under the current Act, providers can discriminate,
but not “unreasonably” – up to the point that it is too costly for the customer
Networks regulated under the Act: Wireless is shared – problem for the alarm industry Cable is shared – problem for the alarm industry Fiber optic – not a problem (yet)
24
Key issues of a rewrite
The ’96 Act was built on a vision of competition in the telecommunications sector: cable, wireline, and wireless. This has been shown not to be the case. Verizon has focused on wireless, and Comcast on cable. Wireline is fading. If competition had flourished as envisioned, regulation would be less
necessary.
Net neutrality Unless net neutrality is addressed, there probably will not be a rewrite. Possible compromise would be a new Title where service providers are not
regulated but are subject to a regulatory complaint regime.
Expanding an increasingly over-burdened network Interchanges between networks are the choke point – relatively
inexpensive to fix Who’s going to pay for it?
25
Regulation of wireless networksRegulations differ for different types of network Wireline = Communications service regulated by
Title II and thus Common Carrier regulations apply
Wireless = Information service = Title I and Common Carrier regulations do not apply This may change, as wireless networks are
subject to the same bandwidth constraints as wireline networks.
Wireless regulation takes place through complaints filed by industry actors as violations are observed.
This process can take years.
26
Possible protection: net neutrality
Telecom providers – phone, internet, cable – must treat all signals transmitted through their service equally at a given level of service. If a service provider and competitor both provide a
service, the service provider may not prioritize its own signals or delay its competitor’s.
This does not prohibit paid prioritization; companies can and do charge differently for different levels of service.
Net neutrality is the status quo.
27
Net neutrality protections in the ’96 Act
Classifies telecommunications companies as “Common Carriers” and prohibits them from making “an unjust or unreasonable discrimination…for or in connection with like communication service.”
Gives the FCC broad authority to promote broadband access.
The FCC used Section 706 to propose rules which were struck down by the DC Circuit Court.
The FCC is now trying to make new net neutrality rules.
Title II – Common Carriers
Section 706
28
Battle lines for a rewrite
There will be a fight over rewriting telecom regulations and net neutrality: Republicans want as little regulation as
possible Democrats are pushing for assurances of
equal treatment of content/signals and access to networks; Content companies and Democrats will be
the alarm industry’s natural allies.
29
Key concerns for the alarm industry Equal access to networks and fair treatment of signals
Telecom companies that provide alarm services have incentive and means to prioritize their signals and to delay competitors’.
Expanding network capacity to meet demand – as users take up more bandwidth, there is less for others. This is true for wireless, wireline, and broadband alike. Whose responsibility is it to make the investment?
Is battery backup an issue for the industry?
30
Alarm industry provision: ‘96 Act Must be updated to reflect current conditions and the
direction of the industry
Are we satisfied with the regulatory recourse currently afforded for reporting abuses by telecom providers?
Ensuring access to networks and fair treatment of signals for alarm companies
Adjusting wording to account for industry developments such as automobile security and medical monitoring
Because industry allies are concerned about net neutrality, we will have to determine how and if we work with them while not alienating Republicans