The Blue Nile River is an important shared resource of Ethiopia,
Sudan, south Sudan and also, because it is the major
contributor of water to the main Nile River, Egypt.
Challenges with food security, poverty, climate change,
ecosystem degradation and biodiversity loss are highly
interlinked.
Given existence of high hydrological variability, climate change and un-coordinated water resource management, it is vital to appreciate to what extent it is possible to internalize those problems by creating potential collaboration among inter and intra water resources actors.
Cont.
The framework for Assessing the Benefits of Transboundary Cooperation is organized along the three main pillars of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, being Social, Economic and Environmental.
It brings these aspects
together through a
Transboundary
Cooperation process,
where Policy and
Governance are key
determinants.
Source: NBI Benefits of transboundary
Cooperation
Cont.
It has recognized that, to attain significant reductions in
poverty the GoE launches different strategic plans.
A complementary strategy of focusing public investment and
policy attention to specific areas of economic opportunity is
needed.
Irrigation infrastructure investments are therefore to be
developed within a strategic framework of regionally based
growth, thus enabling accelerated growth.
Background
Ethiopia is located between approximately 3° to 15° N
latitude and 33° to 48°Elongitude. The country covers a land
area of about 1.12 million km2, occupying a significant
portion of the Horn of Africa.
ILSSI: prelim. 6.0 million ha (12% of rainfed land)
=> 8 % of land potential irrigable using groundwater (90% < 25m)
ATA: 11.4 million ha
Figure 1: Irrigation potential mapping
Cont.
Lake Tana has historically been a center for development.
With the possibility of transferring water from the lake to the
Beles sub-basin.
The idea of looking at
the integrated
development and
management of water
resources of the two sub
basins is logical and
necessary. There is
transboundary through
artificial tunnel for TB HP
and irrigation issues. Figure2: Irrigation potentials and Projects
Methodology Applied
1• Definition of problems/Key water mangt issues
2• Clarification of Objectives
3• Development of Scenarios
4• Definition of Indicators & Evaluation of Criteria
5• Simulation & Quantification of Indicators
6• Evaluation/ MCA Interpretation of Results
Source: NB-DSS, Guideline for the evaluation of water management interventions
Key Issues Identifications
Objective setting
The purpose of this work was to evaluate the impact of
irrigation developments on multi sectoral water users and its
Tran boundary implications in Ethiopia, upper Blue Nile basin.
Data Availability
Hydrological Study of the Tana-Beles Sub-Basins, SMEC
2008
Abbay Master plan Report; Identifying potential projects.
Feasibility, pre-feasibility and reconnaissance studies of
the dams and Irrigation development project.
Impact Assessment of Irrigation Development in the Tana
Basin on Beles Hydropower and Lake Navigation,
Deksyos Tarekegn 2011.
Scenario Definition
The number of scenarios and sequences of developments could vary as
required by planners and decision makers in the future. The scenarios
considered are:
SC-0: Baseline scenario: Chara-Chara Weir, Beles Hydropower with Tana
Beles transfer tunnel (460mw), Koga Dam with 7,000 ha. Irrigation
Development.
SC-1: SC-0 plus Megech dam and Irrigation (7,311 ha), Ribb dam and
irrigation (18,700 ha), Gondar town water supply from Megech reservoir,
Upper Beles Irrigation (54,000 ha).
SC-2: SC-1 plus Gilgel-Abbay dam and Irrigation (14,552 ha), Jemma dam
and Irrigation (7,786 ha), Gumara dam and irrigation (14,000 ha), Dangur
dam Hydropower (168mw) &Lower Beles Irrigation (85,000 ha)
SC-3: SC-2 plus Lake Tana Pumping, total irrigation (44,650 ha), scattered
around the lake
1784
1784.5
1785
1785.5
1786
1786.5
1787
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/06
/1
961
1/09
/1
962
1/12
/1
963
1/03
/1
965
1/06
/1
966
1/09
/1
967
1/12
/1
968
1/03
/1
970
1/06
/1
971
1/09
/1
972
1/12
/1
973
1/03
/1
975
1/06
/1
976
1/09
/1
977
1/12
/1
978
1/03
/1
980
1/06
/1
981
1/09
/1
982
1/12
/1
983
1/03
/1
985
1/06
/1
986
1/09
/1
987
1/12
/1
988
1/03
/1
990
1/06
/1
991
1/09
/1
992
1/12
/1
993
1/03
/1
995
1/06
/1
996
1/09
/1
997
1/12
/1
998
1/03
/2
000
1/06
/2
001
1/09
/2
002
1/12
/2
003
1/03
/2
005
Lak
e L
evel
(m
.a.
s.l)
Vo
lum
e (M
CM
)
To Abay To Tana-Beles Lake Level
Model Calibration
Scenario Comparisons
Multi Criteria Analysis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Vo
lum
e o
f W
ater
(M
CM
)
Month
Upper Beles Irrigation demand Colla UnColla
Conclusion
Under coordination reservoir management costs were166, 345 and 525MUSD/year but during without coordination increased by 3.5, 6.0 and 9.5 % under scenario S1, S2 and S3 respectively.
Intra and inter hydrological variability greatly influence the cost of un-coordination, ranging from no cost during years of high water availability to more than 50% during the driest year.
Sectors that pay the price of un-coordination in terms of economic return, irrigation in Upper Beles and Tana-Beles hydropower holds the first and second place.
Cont.
Decline of 18,580, 25,700 and 31,748 ha during dry season irrigation land in Tana Sub-basin. However, 104, 145 and 225 GWh/year from Tana-Beles hydropower annually from coordinated management with fully satisfied upper Beles irrigation water demand for S1, S2 and S3 respectively.
Upstream of Lake Tana who benefit from future irrigation development will expected to refuse or resist the effort towards collaboratively managing the water resource towards economical optimality unless there is compensation for the lost benefit.
On the other hand, downstream sectors such as EEC, Farmers in Upper Beles and Tana-Sugar estate may show interest due to additional power from Tana-Beles and full supply of irrigation demand in Upper Beles.
Recommendations
Due to dynamics of future economic, if this scenarios are
only evaluated with a static economic value then the output
would be different due to the complete change in the
value the decision variables.
Nile Basin DSS is so good, to built around a shared belief
that countries can achieve better outcomes for all the
people of the Nile Basin through cooperation rather than
competition.
Acknowledgments
Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), ENTRO
MoFED, MoWIE, NPCU
Abay Basin Authority (ABA)
Tana Sub Basin Organization (TaSBO)
Addis Ababa & Bahir Dar Universities
World Bank
Thank You
Water Supply/Navigation/Tourism/Agro processing & Other Growth-oriented investments
