The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment · The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population...

The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total

Population Assessment

August 2002

Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center The University of Alabama

_____________________________________________________________________________ The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment

Table of Contents

Executive Summary i Introduction 1 Tourism Market Overview 2 Total Population Assessment 20 Economic Impact of September 11, 2002 33 Appendix 35

_____________________________________________________________________________ The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment

i

Executive Summary

The purpose of this study is to estimate the total retail trade potential of the Alabama Gulf Coast area, defined to include the communities that run from Fort Morgan on the east to Orange Beach and Ono Island on the west. To accomplish this task we estimate the number of people who live in and visit the Alabama Gulf Coast area. The total number of year-round residents, non-residents who own and maintain second or vacation homes in the area, and visitors to the Gulf Coast has never been satisfactorily quantified. This is an extremely important number because the future economic growth and development of the area will, in large part, be very much influenced by how attractive this area is to retailers and other businesses. Specifically, the scope of work entails the estimation and aggregation of the following population cohorts.

1. Visitors to the area who stay for a day or less, commonly referred to as �day-trippers.�

2. Visitors who come to Gulf Coast communities for up to 29 days and who reside in paid accommodations at hotels, motels, resorts, condominiums, and individual dwelling units.

3. Non-resident owners of second and vacation properties and their guests.

4. Long-term visitors who reside in the Gulf Coast area for more than 30 days at a time, known as �snowbirds.�

5. The permanent, year-round residents of Gulf Coast communities As there is no one data source that can supply all the information needed for this research product, we relied on a number of organizations to assist in data collection and analysis. The Alabama Real Estate Research and Education Center greatly benefited from the assistance of the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau, Evans-Klages, Inc., the Alabama Department of Transportation, the Alabama Bureau of Travel and Tourism, and the Center for Business and Economic Development, University of Alabama, and Auburn University at Montgomery. The total number of permanent residents living in the communities of Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, and Ono Island was calculated from 2000 Census data. In 1999, the resident population was 9,971. The total

_____________________________________________________________________________ The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment ii

number of daily commuters who work in the area was estimated at 6,655 individuals. The number of short-term visitors, spending less than 30 days in paid accommodations during 1999, as estimated by the firm of Evans-Klages, was 1,210,740 people. Estimates generated by the Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau indicate that there were approximately 26,045 long-term visitors, commonly referred to as snowbirds, as they generally come to the area during the winter months. In order to estimate the number of day-trippers we relied upon average daily traffic count data supplied by the Alabama Department of Transportation. We were not able to quantify the number of non-resident vacation property owners and their guests. Consequently, the figure of 3,399,180 day-visitors must be interpreted with care. Despite this omission, this number is reasonable as it based upon one day-tripper per vehicle, a very conservative assumption. The total population, resulting from summing all the population cohorts, indicates that the Gulf Coast Area is the beneficiary of a resident and visitor population of approximately 4.6 million people per year.

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The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment

1

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of visitors on the retail sector of the Alabama Gulf Coast area economy, defined to include the communities that extend from Fort Morgan on the east to Orange Beach on the west. Since retail sales are largely driven by demographics, a large part of this analysis is directed at estimating the total number of people who live in and visit the Alabama Gulf Coast area. The first part of this report estimates the retail dollars that are generated by vacation and tourism activities. In the second part of this study we quantify the actual number of people who generate these retail expenditures. There can be no doubt that the visitor industry is vital to the Gulf Coast economy and the way of life of its residents. The Gulf Coast economy has grown handsomely in the recent past due largely to the impact of the visitor industry. Over the past thirty years, Baldwin County�s total personal income has grown at over twice the rate of the rest of Alabama. With tourism forecasted to remain strong, and with the Alabama Gulf Coast being one of the prime tourism destinations in the South, the economy of the study area shows every sign of continued growth well into the future. Visitor spending impacts virtually every corner of the economy of the Alabama Gulf Coast, including a number of economic benefits which are not available to other cities and parts of the state. First and foremost, the visitor industry generates and supports a large number of jobs in tourism-specific industries such as lodging, realty, recreation, and restaurant / hospitality. Thousands of employees working at hotel / motel / condominium sites, in real estate sales and leasing offices, in amusement parks and beach areas, in boating and fishing supply businesses, and in restaurants owe their jobs directly to tourism. In addition, because visitors bring new dollars to the Gulf Coast area, their spending has a high multiplier effect. Finally, the presence of many visitors helps promote a vibrant and diverse cultural and social atmosphere that is attractive to visitors and Gulf Coast residents alike.

_____________________________________________________________________________ The Alabama Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment 2

Tourism Market Overview

Visitors to the Alabama Gulf Coast Area Alabama received over 18 million visitors annually during 2000 and 2001. Although there are hundreds of tourism attractions in Alabama, from idyllic landscapes to wooded canyons to historical sites, Baldwin County leads the state in total number of visitors with over one fifth of the total. Baldwin County, and in particular the Gulf Coast area of Baldwin County, is both a haven for water sports enthusiasts and a destination for history buffs. The phenomenal beaches in the Gulf Coast area are located in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Visitors also travel further along the coast and visit historic Fort Morgan. The table below details the number of visitors to the state for the previous two years and the major county destination and accommodation needs.

Table 1 Estimated Total Number of Visitors for

The State of Alabama and Selected Counties

Total Number of Visitors Number of Travelers in Hotel and Motel Accommodations County

2000 2001 2000 2001 Baldwin 3,521,612 3,799,761 1,183,262 1,229,342 Jefferson 2,741,599 2,735,746 1,746,398 1,742,670 Mobile 2,481,815 2,433,881 1,444,416 1,416,519 Madison 2,273,661 2,256,934 1,580,194 1,568,568 Montgomery 1,179,800 1,185,349 714,959 718,321 Other counties 5,957,248 5,885,857 3,941,941 4,018,621 Alabama 18,155,735 18,297,528 10,611,170 10,694,042

Source: Smith Travel Research and Auburn University Montgomery Outreach

Visitor Impact on the Economy The tourism industry is one of Baldwin County�s premier �driver� industries, and the focus of this industry is the Alabama beach area. The vast majority of the 3.8 million visitors to the county in 2001 patronized the shops, beaches, restaurants, and lodging facilities of the Gulf Coast area of Baldwin County. The impact of visitors to the area is felt in three very distinctive ways:


1. First and most obviously are the directly

affected �core� industries that receive a significant portion of their business from out-of-towners. These businesses are concentrated in the lodging, transportation, eating and drinking, entertainment, and amusement sectors.

2. In addition, businesses in the retail sector of the economy - grocery, department and variety stores, gasoline service stations and parking - experience a large impact from the visitor spending they receive.

3. Since every dollar a visitor spends is an �export� sale - new spending that comes into the Gulf Coast area � these dollars generate a multiplier effect. When a visitor pays for a stay in a Gulf Coast hotel, that hotel in turn uses this money to pay its workers, purchase cleaning supplies, and other services. These payments constitute income to recipients, which supports additional rounds of spending and income generation.

The 2001 Visitor Profile for the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitor�s Bureau is based on direct interviews conducted by Evans-Klages, Inc. Their target participants are people staying in overnight, paid accommodations for periods of 1-29 days. Groups not included in this definition of a visitor are:

◘ Local-area beach visitors (day trippers)

◘ People visiting family and/or friends in their homes

◘ People staying in their own second home or condominium

◘ Part-time residents who stay in the area for 30 days or longer (snowbirds).

The impact of visitor spending can be seen in two ways:

1. Total employment and payroll for the totality of the core visitor industries (including local spending).

2. Employment and spending that is visitor dependent. In a very real sense, these are jobs and expenditures that would vanish if the Gulf Shores area did not have visitors.


According to the 2000 County Business Patterns, Baldwin County employed over 17,000 people in 1,422 establishments with a payroll of over $260 million. The majority of these establishments are located in the Gulf Coast area. The following table lists the core industries, which receive significant impact from the visitor industry. Tables 3 and 4 provide the largest employers in the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas. Clearly seen is the fact that several of the employers listed are core visitor businesses.

Table 2 Core Visitor Industries

SIC Code NAICS Industry Name 4119 Local Passenger 4121 Taxicabs

413; 414 4111 Buses 4512 481 Air Transportation 4581 481 Airports

4725; 4729 487 Travel Arrangements 581 722 Eating and Drinking Places 7011 721 Hotels and Motels 7021 7213 Rooming Houses 7032 Sports and Recreational Camps 7033 7212 RVs/Campsites 7514 Car Rental 7832 512131 Movie theatres 7922 711 Live theatre 7929 Bands, orchestras 7941 Pro Sports 7948 Car & horse racing 7992 Public Golf course 7996 713 Amusement Parks 8412 712 Museums, Galleries 8422 Arboreta, zoos, etc. 5311 45211 Department stores 5331 4529 Variety stores 5411 4451 Grocery stores 5541 447 Gasoline stations 7521 Parking 5947 45322 Gift, novelty and souvenir stores

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Table 3

Largest Employers in Gulf Shores

Business Number of Employees

Gulf State Park & Resort 255 Brett/Robinson 240 Gulf Shores Public Schools 162 City of Gulf Shores 148 Meyer Real Estate 110 Delchamps 100 Kaiser Realty Inc. 100 Quality Inn 89 Craft Farms Golf Courses 83 White Sands Resort 60

Source: Alabama Gulf Coast Chamber of Commerce

Table 4

Largest Employers in Orange Beach

Business Number of Employees

Hazels Family Restaurants 495 Perdido Beach Resort 325 Quality Restaurants 175 City of Orange Beach 156 Destin Development-Restaurants 150 Delchamps 100 Winn Dixie 75 Island House Hotel 50 Hilton Garden Inn 44 Orange Beach Elementary School 40

Source: Alabama Gulf Coast Chamber of Commerce

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When Did They Visit and How Much Did They Spend The Gulf Coast area brings in visitors year long to enjoy its 32-miles of sugar-white beaches. They also enjoy relaxing in excellent accommodations, dining on delicious cuisine, playing an array of championship golf courses, casting their lines in superb fishing waters, discovering the excellent birding trails, and visiting many other exciting attractions. The table below records the seasons and visitor expenditures for the most recent tourist season. As reason dictates, the greatest number of visitors received is during the summer months followed closely by the winter or snowbird season.

Table 5 Visitor Information

Fall 2000 (Sept-Oct)

Winter 2000 (Nov-Feb)

Spring 2001 (Mar-May)

Summer 2001 (June-Aug)

Annual 2000

Number of Visitors 236,447 276,882 228,517 468,894 1,210,740

Visitor Expenditures $65,871,770 $96,770,259 $84,055,408 $167,235,734 $413,933,171

Source: Evans-Klages, Inc., 2001 Visitor Profile

Where these visitors stay is also a vital component of the impact on the community. Table 6 shows the impact of lodging on the area. As with the increase in visitors and visitor spending, the occupancy rates as well as rental rates are up in the summer months. The only difference being the spring season yielding higher occupancy and rental rates than the winter season. Obviously the various spring break visitors from throughout the southeast contribute to this increase in occupancy.

Table 6 Economic Impact Estimates of Lodging

Fall 2000

Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Occupancy Condominium Market 43.5% 14.6% 54.5% 71.2%

Occupancy Hotel/Motel Market 51.8% 40.0% 67.0% 75.2% Average Daily Rate Condominium Market $100.31 $58.39 $96.74 $155.65

Average Daily Rate Hotel/Motel Market $83.37 $55.24 $91.41 $120.89


Table 7 provides the accommodation inventory available for rent or lease in the area. According to this information, condominiums represent 81%


of the total market available for rent or lease. For the various communities of Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan condominiums represent 69%, 85%, and 100% of the market, respectively. Gulf Shores has the greatest number of hotel/motel rooms available at 1,518 rooms, or 31% of its inventory.

Table 7 Condominium and Hotel/Motel Inventory

Gulf Shores Orange Beach Ft. Morgan Total

Condominium 3,403 6,084 1,416 10,903 Hotel/Motel 1,518 1,089 0 2,607 Totals 4,921 7,173 1,416 13,510

Source; Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau (AGCCVB)

Table 8

Lodging Tax

Gulf Shores Orange Beach Month 2001 2000 2001 2000

January $35,589 27,003 $39,607 $49,215 February 38,043 35,072 42,717 38,357 March 72,950 51,951 80,907 91,549 April 202,158 174,793 275,365 243,267 May 247,753 256,016 376,807 34,9624 June 280,435 261,686 394,760 399,736 July 565,984 513,724 833,802 759,363 August 646,302 656,962 971,810 870,159 September 301,950 297,122 482,235 468,158 October 129,051 180,006 247,013 252,988 November 133,038 116,862 165,103 146,096 December 66,055 60,635 93,939 87,679

Total $2,719,308 $2,631,832 $4,004,065 $3,756,191

Source: City of Gulf Shores, City of Orange Beach As the tables reflect, Orange Beach collects a larger share of the lodging tax revenues due to the fact that the majority of the units available are located in the Orange Beach area. Table 9 shows the retail sales for Baldwin County by month for the years 2000 and 2001. The following tables reflect estimated retail sales for the Gulf Shores and Orange Beach areas. Fort Morgan is not included in this explanation because of its unincorporated status and the sales taxes cannot be distinguished. The 2000 and 2001 retail sales for Gulf Shores and Orange Beach were estimated using their city sales tax percentage, which is 3% and 2%, respectively.


Table 9 Baldwin County Retail Sales, 2000-2001

Month 2000 2001

January $ 72,700,000 $ 87,774,000

February 100,338,000 91,565,000

March 118,936,000 115,412,000

April 111,559,000 111,743,000

May 119,754,000 117,443,000

June 129,810,000 123,850,000

July 126,151,000 128,582,000

August 118,086,000 115,640,000

September 103,843,000 103,235,000

October 97,438,000 114,742,000

November 87,513,000 107,957,000

December $108,478,000 $132,310,000

Total $1,294,606,000 $1,350,253,000

Source: ACLMIS, Retail Sales

Table 10

Estimated Retail Sales City of Gulf Shores

Month Reported Sales Tax,

2000

Estimated Retail Sales

2000

Percentage of County

Retail Sales

Reported Sales Tax,

2001


2001


Retail Sales

January $ 251,912 $ 8,397,067 11.55% $ 231,982 $ 7,732,733 8.81% February 239,138 7,971,267 7.94% 198,385 6,612,833 7.22% March 318,142 10,604,733 8.92% 318,898 10,629,933 9.21% April 468,012 15,600,400 13.98% 428,471 14,282,367 12.78% May 445,183 14,839,433 12.39% 436,420 14,547,333 12.39% June 447,813 14,927,100 11.50% 443,794 14,793,133 11.94% July 611,577 20,385,900 16.16% 613,188 20,439,600 15.90% August 685,244 22,841,467 19.34% 713,869 23,795,633 20.58% September 454,390 15,146,333 14.59% 454,824 15,160,800 14.69% October 315,686 10,522,867 10.80% 324,587 10,819,567 9.43% November 288,160 9,605,333 10.98% 296,157 9,871,900 9.14% December 219,463 7,315,433 6.74% 243,931 8,131,033 6.15% Total $4,744,720 $158,157,330 $4,704,506 $156,816,867

Source: City of Gulf Shores

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Table 11 Estimated Retail Sales City of Orange Beach

Month

Reported Sales Tax, 2000


2000


Retail Sales

Reported Sales Tax, 2001


2001


Retail Sales

January $167,032 $8,351,600 11.49 $149,044 $7,452,200 8.49 February 137,932 6,896,600 6.87 133,308 6,665,400 7.28 March 189,448 9,472,400 7.96 244,271 12,213,550 10.58 April 277,092 13,854,600 12.42 188,036 9,401,800 8.41 May 284,943 14,247,150 11.90 300,105 15,005,250 12.78 June 286,604 14,330,200 11.04 312,009 15,600,450 12.60 July 392,117 19,605,850 15.54 390,017 19,500,850 15.17 August 431,627 21,581,350 18.28 465,738 23,286,900 20.14 September 308,810 15,440,500 14.87 290,575 14,528,750 14.07 October 231,991 11,599,550 11.90 224,289 11,214,450 9.77 November 189,718 9,485,900 10.84 197,401 9,870,050 9.14 December 139,391 6,969,550 6.42 158,424 7,921,200 5.99 $151,835,250 $152,660,850

Source: City of Gulf Shores Tables 12 and 13 represent the visitor party budgets during their stay in the Gulf Coast area based on the major spending categories of food, lodging, and entertainment. The greatest expenditures occur during the spring and summer seasons. The fall season is a close third due to the annual Shrimp Festival, which brings in thousands of people during the month of October.

Table 12 Visitor Party Budget

(Gulf Shores/Orange Beach Stay: Food/Lodging/Entertainment)

Fall 2000

Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Total $975.08 $978.59 $1,287.42 $1,483.72 Per Person/Trip 278.59 349.50 367.83 256.66 Per Person/Day 66.33 61.32 69.40 72.79


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Table 13 Visitor Party Budget Breakout

(Gulf Shores/Orange Beach Stay)

Budget Breakout Fall 2000 Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Accommodations $380.12 $316.74 $502.39 $694.31 Food/Entertainment 326.75 351.92 398.21 443.04 Retail/Grocery Purchases 202.89 240.32 250.78 254.68 Miscellaneous Expenditures 82.44 114.03 113.08 87.42


Table 14 relays in what categories visitors spend while in the Gulf Coast area. The greatest expenditure is lodging, followed by food and entertainment. Retail/grocery purchases also impact the local economy.

Table 14 Taxable Retail Sales, Baldwin County

Kind of Business, 2000-2001 ($1,000)

Kind of Business 2001 2000

Food $140,889 $135,967 General Merchandise 245,073 237,194 Apparel 115,394 111,463 Furniture 58,027 56,607 Automotive 251,930 227,259 Gas Service Stations 5,792 9,521 Hardware & Lumber 107,006 129,048 Eating Places 181,203 178,176 Drug Stores 7,972 13,298 All Other Retail 131,481 129,465 All Else 117,818 115,486

Total $1,362,945 $1,333,211

Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Alabama

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Table 15 Retail Trade Impact of Visitors, 2000

Kind of Business Total Retail Sales Alabama

Per Capita Retail Sales,

Alabama Pop: 4,447,100

Baldwin County Retail Sales, Pop: 140,415

Baldwin County Per

Capita Retail Sales

County Retail Sales

From Resident Population

Difference in Actual County

Retail Sales and Resident

Expenditures

Estimated Retail Sales for Gulf

Shores Resident Pop: 5,044

Estimated Retail Sales for Orange Beach Resident

Pop: 3,784

Food $ 6,761,228,000 $ 1,520 $ 135,967,000 $ 968 $ 7,668,736 $ 5,753,072 General Merchandise 6,443,389,000 1,449 237,194,000 1,689 $ 203,446,845 $ 33,747,155 7,308,236 5,482,626

Apparel 1,668,071,000 375 111,463,000 794 52,668,523 58,794,477 1,891,963 1,419,348

Furniture 1,883,784,000 424 56,607,000 403 2,136,630 1,602,896

Automotive 7,989,255,000 1,797 227,259,000 1,618 9,061,591 6,797,990 Gas Service Stations 285,302,000 64 9,521,000 68 323,596 242,761 Hardware & Lumber 3,639,496,000 818 129,048,000 919 114,915,300 14,132,700 4,127,998 3,096,817

Eating Places 3,818,906,000 859 178,176,000 1,269 120,580,083 57,595,917 4,331,488 3,249,475

Drug Stores 402,389,000 90 13,298,000 95 12,705,235 592,765 456,399 342,389

All Other Retail 4,031,444,000 907 129,465,000 922 127,290,866 2,174,134 4,572,554 3,430,322

All Else 4,178,461,000 940 115,486,000 822 4,739,304 3,555,417

Total $41,101,725,000 $ 9,242 $ 1,333,211,000 $ 9,495 $ 46,618,493 $ 34,973,112 Source: City of Gulf Shores; City of Orange Beach; Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Alabama

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Table 15 shows the retail trade impact of visitors to the Gulf Coast area. The first 5 columns of this table are self-explanatory. Column 6 reports total retail sales generated by Baldwin County�s resident population. This number is calculated by multiplying statewide per capita retail spending by the year-round resident population of Baldwin County. It assumes that the spending habits of Baldwin County residents are no different than that of other state residents. The contribution of visitors to retail sales is shown in column 7. It is the difference between total county retail sales and the estimated retail sales of county residents. Column 8 shows the estimated retail sales for permanent Gulf Shores residents. They are calculated by multiplying statewide per capita retail sales by the city�s resident population. Similar calculations were undertaken in estimating the retail sales produced by Orange Beach residents. Based on the estimated retail sales for Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, the impact of visitors on the area was $228 million in 2000. This figure was derived by adding total retail sales for Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Subtracting the retail sales generated by the residents of these two communities yields the amount of spending attributable to visitors to the area. The following computation shows how the direct retail trade impact of visitors to the Gulf Coast area was derived:

Gulf Shores Retail Sales from tax revenues, 2000 $158,157,330

Orange Beach Retail Sales from tax revenues, 2000 151,835,250

Total Estimated Retail Sales, 2000 $309,992,580

Minus Estimated Spending by the resident population 81,591,065

Estimated Visitor Impact on Retail Trade $228,400,975 A similar computation is made for 2001 in Table 16.

Gulf Shores Retail Sales from tax revenues, 2001 $156,816,867

Orange Beach Retail Sales from tax revenues, 2001 + 152,660,850

Total Estimated Retail Sales, 2001 $309,477,717

Minus Estimated Spending by resident population - 84,380,096

Estimated Visitor Impact on Retail Trade $225,097,621

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Table 16 Retail Trade Impact of Visitors, 2001

Kind of Business Total Retail Sales Alabama

Per Capita Retail Sales, Alabama Pop:4,464,356

Baldwin County Retail Sales, Pop: 145,799

Baldwin County Per

Capita Retail Sales

County Retail Sales

From Resident Population

Difference in Actual County Retail Sales

and Resident Expenditures

Estimated Retail Sales for Gulf

Shores Resident Pop: 5,216

Estimated Retail Sales for Orange Beach Resident

Pop: 3,937

Food $ 6,554,830,000 $ 1,468 $ 140,889,000 $ 966 $ 7,658,438 $ 5,780,535 General Merchandise 6,630,354,000 1,485 245,073,000 1,681 $ 216,537,163 $ 28,535,837 7,746,678 5,847,138

Apparel 1,711,950,000 383 115,394,000 791 55,909,654 59,484,346 2,000,183 1,509,724

Furniture 1,910,428,000 428 58,027,000 398 2,232,078 1,684,757

Automotive 8,342,477,000 1,869 251,930,000 1,728 9,747,063 7,357,015 Gas Service Stations 276,168,000 62 5,792,000 40 322,665 243,545

Hardware & Lumber 3,353,905,000 751 107,006,000 734 3,918,587 2,957,722

Eating Places 3,991,142,000 894 181,203,000 1,243 130,344,559 50,858,441 4,663,113 3,519,685

Drug Stores 383,687,000 86 7,972,000 55 448,287 338,364

All Other Retail 4,070,510,000 912 131,481,000 902 4,755,844 3,589,677

All Else 3,930,759,000 880 117,818,000 808 128,372,543 10,554,543 4,592,564 3,466,435

Total $ 41,256,210,000 $1,362,945,000 $ 48,085,500 $ 36,294,596 Source: City of Gulf Shores; City of Orange Beach; Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Alabama

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The Alabam

How They Got Here The majority of visitors to the cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach travel by personal vehicles on the major highways to reach their destination. The results in Table 17 show which route they take to reach the Gulf Coast area. This information is based on the survey conducted for the 2001 Visitor Survey by Evans-Klages.

Tables 18 and 19 show the recorded traffic counts for the roads leading into the Gulf Coast area for the years 2000 and 2001. They are shown by month.

Table 17 Major Highways Used to Reach Area

(Multiple Responses)

Fall 2000

Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Interstate 65 56.5% 60.8% 66.2% 53.4% Interstate 10 34.9% 27.7% 32.9% 37.1% U.S. Highway 98 4.7% 7.9% 7.6% 7.9% Interstate 85 3.4% 4.0% 5.8% 5.6% Ft. Morgan Ferry 0.6% 1.2% 2.1% 1.9% From Pensacola 4.2% 3.9% 2.8% 1.4% Source: Evans-Klages, Inc., 2001 Visitors Profile

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a Gulf Coast: A Total Population Assessment 14

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15

Location Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec

Lillian 7,938 8,832 9,137 8,673 8,732 8,614 8,695 8,232 7,983 8,352 8,172 8,267 Gulf Shores 27,651 32,798 37,514 37,098 38,140 41,850 38,717 30,626 28,841 27,804 25,042 22,655 Wilmer 6,967 7,478 8,504 8,067 9,048 9,753 10,121 8,733 7,935 7,749 7,550 7,492 Loxley* 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Bay 34,266 36,105 39,442 38,388 39,236 42,418 45,305 39,692 37,375 35,528 37,082 32,964 Loxley I-10 22,363 23,682 27,581 25,389 26,755 29,552 31,682 26,560 23,497 23,174 24,075 24,048 Gulf Shores 182 11,959 15,205 19,189 18,990 19,143 23,351 26,625 17,246 13,702 12,329 10,147 8,322 Mobile I-10 71,592 78,778 82,507 78,762 79,851 82,727 83,120 78,032 73,254 74,205 72,511 71,481 Mobile I-65 77,472 82,830 84,859 83,293 84,033 84,352 84,120 82,682 79,504 81,212 78,726 79,473 Perdido 15,819 17,056 19,797 19,389 20,013 21,065 22,452 19,563 18,731 19,718 19,658 18,945 Total 276,027 302,764 328,530 318,049 324,951 343,682 350,837 311,366 290,822 290,071 282,963 273,647

Source: Alabama Department of Transportation, * Incomplete data

Table 18 Traffic Counts for Roads Leading Into the Gulf Coast Area, 2000

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Location Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Lillian 7,889 8,581 9,069 8,960 8,662 8,618 8,758 8,478 8,233 8,544 8,375 8,490

Gulf Shores 25,460 29,895 32,834 32,936 35,203 39,717 39,378 31,819 26,524 28,216 25,959 23,839

Wilmer 6,630 7,256 8,224 7,889 8,722 9,575 9,939 8,625 7,775 7,695 8,098 7,527

Loxley 2,324 2,572 2,760 2,773 2,731 2,842 2,757 2,753 2,748 2,817 2,755 2,780

Grand Bay 33,622 39,160 40,246 40,735 41,619 45,131 48,433 42,458 38,339 38,011 40,334 40,445

Loxley I-10 22,098 24,222 26,244 25,593 26,715 29,378 31,388 26,326 23,731 23,289 25,252 25,253

Gulf Shores 182 11,575 15,253 17,961 18,546 17,774 21,941 25,278 16,960 13,445 12,484 10,386 8,727

Mobile I-10 66,459 77,747 80,765 75,384 78,619 83,181 83,890 78,947 74,800 75,523 75,081 74,008

Mobile I-65 76,261 83,822 83,252 83,210 83,418 84,380 84,244 83,112 80,794 81,143 80,005 79,192

Perdido 16,901 18,738 19,603 19,969 20,602 21,497 23,381 19,357 19,495 20,522 20,962 19,709

Total 269,219 307,246 320,958 315,995 324,065 346,260 357,446 318,835 295,884 298,244 297,207 289,970

Source: Alabama Department of Transportation

Table 19 Traffic Counts for Roads Leading Into the Gulf Shores Area, 2001


What They Did While Visiting the Area The following tables outline activities visitors participated in while staying in the Gulf Coast area.

Table 20 Activities Enjoyed

(Shown in Percentage)

Activity Fall 2000

Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Beaches 90.5 85.6 92.5 96.7 Relaxing 85.3 81.2 90.0 83.4 Dining Out 88.1 88.8 82.2 82.7 Shopping 78.9 68.4 72.3 68.2 Pool * * * 31.0 Attractions 11.1 17.0 24.2 30.5 Fishing 13.9 8.4 19.4 23.6 Golfing 22.4 33.0 26.2 21.7 Sight Seeing 27.2 52.0 35.5 20.8 Miniature Golf 13.3 3.6 8.0 18.5 Visiting Friends/Relatives 18.3 17.7 12.6 12.6 Bars/Nightlife 8.9 9.8 9.4 8.9 Parasailing 1.7 0.6 1.0 7.7 Photography 7.8 8.1 8.6 4.9 Scuba/Snorkeling 1.1 1.1 0.5 4.9 Wildlife/Entertainment 8.5 10.1 9.4 4.0

al Events 8.3 4.4 4.7 2.3 Trips to Casinos in Mississippi 4.5 9.2 5.5 2.3

Source: Evans-Klages, Inc., 2001 Visitor Profile; * Data not available

Table 21 Attractions Visited

(Shown in Percentage)

Attraction Fall 2000

Winter 2000

Spring 2001

Summer 2001

Riviera Centre 68.6% 62.7% 57.1% 54.7% Waterville 1.7 N/A 7.0 25.8 The Track 7.9 6.0 10.1 25.0 None 25.8 14.1 17.6 19.6 Fort Morgan 14.5 28.1 17.9 14.4 Gulf State Park 15.2 29.8 19.3 11.5 Mobile Bay Ferry 4.9 11.3 8.6 7.2 Battleship USS Alabama * * * 6.4 Bon SeCour Wildlife Refuge 6.8 7.5 5.4 5.9 Alabama Gulf Coast Zoo 3.9 2.2 4.1 5.8 Pensacola Naval Museum ** ** ** 5.2

Source: Evans-Klages, Inc., 2001 Visitor Profile; * Data not available


Total Population Assessment

Economic Overview The Gulf Coast region of Alabama has been experiencing rapid growth in recent years. Alabama has matched the nation in terms of growth, but Baldwin County has been growing at a much faster pace. The following tables show the growth of the population and labor force for Alabama and Baldwin County from 1990 to 2001. The state�s population has been growing at 0.94 percent annually and the labor force has grown at 1.2. Unemployment has declined steadily from 6.9 percent in 1990 to 5.3 in 2001. The Baldwin County population has been increasing at a rate of 4.14 percent annually and the labor force at 4.97 percent. Labor force participation has increased by almost 54 percent during this time period. The unemployment rate has declined from 5.3 percent in 1990 to 4.1 percent in 2001. Labor recruitment has proved to be troublesome although there is a great deal of out of county employment commuting and reported underemployment.

Table 22 Alabama Growth, Population and Labor Force

1990-2001

Year Population Labor Force

Percentage of Population in Labor Force

Unemployment Rate

(Percentage) 2001* 4,469,335 2,147,552 48.0 5.3

2000 4,447,100 2,154,273 48.4 4.6 1999 4,369,862 2,140,872 49.0 4.8 1998 4,351,037 2,156,494 49.6 4.2 1997 4,320,281 2,166,972 50.2 5.1 1996 4,290,403 2,098,603 48.9 5.1 1995 4,262,731 2,068,656 48.5 6.3 1994 4,232,965 2,028,544 47.9 6.0 1993 4,193,114 1,997,384 47.6 7.6 1992 4,139,269 1,962,093 47.4 7.4 1991 4,091,025 1,907,068 46.6 7.2 1990 4,048,508 1,888,744 46.7 6.9

Annual Growth Rate 0.94% 1.2% 5.88%

Source: U.S. Census 2000, 1990; Claritas; ACLMIS; *Estimate


Table 23 Baldwin County Growth, Population and Labor Force

1990-2001

Year Population Labor Force

Percentage of Population in Labor Force

Unemployment Rate

(Percentage) 2001* 143,925 71,740 49.8 4.1 2000 140,415 71,573 51.0 3.1 1999 136,978 70,919 51.4 3.3 1998 132,828 69,913 52.6 2.7 1997 128,820 68,178 52.9 3.5 1996 124,257 64,210 51.7 4.4 1995 119,934 60,814 50.7 5.1 1994 115,809 57,975 50.1 4.7 1993 110,870 54,878 49.5 6.3 1992 106,226 52,135 49.1 6.2 1991 102,227 49,092 48.0 5.5 1990 98,920 46,355 46.9 5.3

Annual Growth Rate 4.14% 4.97% 4.5

Source: U.S. Census 2000, 1990; Claritas, ACLMIS, *Estimate

The table below details employment by industry in Baldwin County. Visitor related employment is high as is retail trade and service employment.

Table 24 Employment Breakdown, 2000

Baldwin County

Gulf Shores

Orange Beach Industry

Number % Number % Number % Agriculture 1,166 1.9 23 0.9 20 1.0 Construction 6,742 10.7 316 13.0 387 18.9 Manufacturing 7,895 12.5 121 5.0 77 3.8 Wholesale Trade 2,407 3.8 52 2.1 46 2.2 Retail Trade 8,939 14.2 385 15.9 372 18.2 Transportation 3,276 5.2 60 2.5 103 5.0 Information 1,472 2.3 36 1.5 51 2.5 FIRE 3,838 6.1 312 12.9 203 9.9 Professional, scientific, management, administrative, and waste management services

4,679 7.4 156 6.4 193 9.4

Educational, health, and social services 10,802 17.2 278 11.5 142 6.9 Other services 3,374 5.4 132 5.5 110 5.4 Public Administration 2,625 4.2 50 2.1 58 2.8 Total 62,938 100 2,422 100 2,049 100

Source: U.S. Census, 2000


Area Population and the Supply of Housing The estimation of the total number of people who reside in or visit the Gulf Coast begins with determining the number of year-round residents relative to the total number of area dwelling units. In so doing we can then determine the number of visitors to the Gulf Coast who stay in condo units, beach homes, other single-family dwellings, and apartments. At the same time we can ascertain the capacity of the area to accommodate vacationers, tourists, and other visitors. Generating this dwelling unit inventory also sheds light on the wealth status of the Gulf Coast communities, which, in turn, is an important indicator of the area�s retail potential. County Overview The 2000 Census identified 74,285 dwelling units in Baldwin County in 1999. With 55,336 households living in homes or apartments, that left 18,040 vacant housing units. While this is a sizeable number of unoccupied dwellings, most are for vacation or occasional use and, not surprisingly, located in Gulf Coast communities.

Table 25 Total Housing Units in Baldwin County,

by Selected Characteristics, 1999

Units in Structure Number Percentage

Single Unit, Detached 44,984 60.6 10 or More Units 13,029 17.5 Mobile Homes 13,127 17.7 Vacant Units 18,949 25.5 Occasional Use 11,862 15.9 Total Housing Units 74,285

Source: Profile of Selected Housing Characteristics, 2000 U.S. Census Bureau

The Census reports that there were 31,083 single-family, owner-occupied housing units in Baldwin County in 1999. The distribution of housing by price is shown in Table 26. It can be seen that 65 percent of owner-occupied, single-family housing units are valued at less that $150,000. It is important to note that the examination of home prices and the rental units that follows only reflect year-round, owner-occupied dwelling units, and exclude condominiums and mobile homes. These housing units are excluded for two reasons. First, the Census breakdown of home prices and rents do not cover condo or mobile home units. Second, including these units would provide a misleading indication of resident wealth and


property values. The supply of condo units, however, is examined at the municipal level.

Table 26 Single-Family, Owner-Occupied Housing, by Price Range

Baldwin County, 1999

Value Number of Units

Percentage of Units

Cumulative Percentage

Less than $50,000 1,974 6.4 6.4 $50,000 to $99,999 9,412 30.3 36.7 $100,000 to $149,999 8,615 27.7 64.4 $150,000 to $199,999 4,668 15.0 79.4 $200,000 to $299,999 3,573 11.5 90.9 $300,000 to $499,999 2,039 6.6 97.5 $500,000 to $999,999 613 2.0 99.5 $1 million or more 188 0.6 100.0

Median $122,500


A similar analysis can be performed for renters. Table 27 illustrates the distribution of rents for year-round, renter occupied housing units in Baldwin County. The countywide median rent in 1999 was $566, indicating that half the rental units in the county had rents in excess of this amount.

Table 27 Rental Rates in Baldwin County by Number

and Percent of Total Specified Units

Gross Rent Number of Units

Percentage of Units

Less than $200 525 4.7 $200 to $299 541 4.9 $300 to $499 2,709 24.5 $500 to $749 3,707 33.5 $750 to $999 1,607 14.5 $1,000 to $1,400 584 5.3 $1,500 or more 184 1.7 No cash rent 1,208 10.0

Median $566



The City of Gulf Shores Of the total of 6,810 housing units in Gulf Shores, 2,344 were occupied and 4,466 were vacant. Of the units listed as vacant, 2,759 were listed as being for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use by the 2000 Census. That translates into 62 percent of the vacant units in the city of Gulf Shores, which, in turn, reflects the resort nature of this community. Of the 2,344 households residing in the city, 72.6 percent own their home, while the remainder, 27.4 percent, or 642 households rent their dwelling unit.

Table 28 Total Housing Units in Gulf Shores


Single Unit, Detached 2,630 38.41 10 or More Units 3,037 44.36 Mobile Homes 32 0.47 Vacant Units 4,466 65.6 Occasional Use 2,759 40.5 Total Housing Units 6,810


An examination of home prices and rent levels in Gulf Shores is particularly revealing. We examine year-round, owner-occupied units first. It should be recalled that mobile homes and condominium units are excluded from this analysis.

Owner-occupied, single-family housing was expensive relative to county levels with only 37.4 percent of those homes valued at less than $150,000

Table 29 Single-Family, Owner-Occupied Housing by Price Range,

City of Gulf Shores

Value Number Percentage Cumulative Percentage

Less than $50,000 0 0.0 0.0 $50,000 to $99,999 180 13.2 13.2 $100,000 to $149,999 328 24.1 37.4 $150,000 to $199,999 271 19.9 57.3 $200,000 to $299,999 299 22.0 79.3 $300,000 to $499,999 230 16.9 96.2 $500,000 to $999,999 51 3.8 100.0 $1 million or more 0 0.0 100.0

Median $177,200

Source: Profile of Selected Housing Characteristics, 2000 U.S. Census


and a median value of $177,200. The countywide median home price was $122,000. Rent levels are also higher in Gulf Shores relative to the county, with 85.7 percent of renters paying in excess of $500 in rental costs and a median rent of $705, the second highest in the county after Spanish Fort. The 2000 Census estimated household median income for Gulf Shores at $41,826 and a total population of 5,044. The most recent tabulation of condominium units indicates that as of March 2002 there were 3,404 condominiums in Gulf Shores. This is not inconsistent with the Census estimation of 2,759 vacant occasional\vacation-use properties, and can easily be new construction that has taken place since 1999. Most of the condos held out for rent to vacationers generally command very high prices that at the low-end can range from $150,000 to well over $350,000 for the larger, better situated units.

Table 30 Rental Rates in Gulf Shores by Number

And Percent of Total Specified Units

Gross Rent Number Percentage

Less than $200 0 0.0 $200 to $299 16 2.4 $300 to $499 79 11.9 $500 to $749 297 44.7 $750 to $999 182 27.4 $1,000 to $1,400 57 8.6 $1,500 or more 0 0.0 No cash rent 33 5.0

Median $705


The City of Orange Beach The 2000 Census reports that there were 3,784 people living in Orange Beach in 1999, with an average household size of 2.13 individuals, the smallest in the county. This translates into 1,779 households residing in Orange Beach. The small household size is consistent with the resort nature of this community. In contrast, the total number of dwelling units in the City in 1999 was 7,594, of which 5,815 were vacant at the time. The vast majority of these vacant units, 93 percent in fact, were for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. Given the low number of residents and the high number of housing


units, it is not surprising that Orange Beach has the highest percentage of vacation homes of any municipality in the county, again reflecting the resort and recreational nature of this community. It is worth pointing out that the Census Bureau used different iterations or samples when surveying population, the number of households, the number of dwelling units, and their structural characteristics. Generally, the differences in these estimations are small, but every once in a while, more than nominal differences emerge. These differences typically are linked to whether the Census survey was based upon a 100 percent sample or a partial sample, as is the case with the demographic profiles (based upon 100 percent samples) and the profiles of selected housing characteristics (partial sample). In the case of Orange Beach some of the housing numbers differ between Census Tables DP-1 and DP-4, the demographic and housing profiles, respectively. In the housing profile table the Census reports a total of 7,734 housing units. Given that there are only 1,779 households in Orange Beach, this suggests a larger number of vacant units � 5,955 compared to 5,815 units as reported in the demographic profile. We think the larger number is the more accurate.

Table 31 Total Housing Units in Orange Beach


Single Unit, Detached 2,120 27.41 10 or More Units 4,378 56.61 Mobile Homes 571 7.38 Vacant Units 5,815 76.60 Occasional Use 5,416 71.30 Total Housing Units 7,734


The most recent estimates of the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau (AGCCVB) indicate that the number of condo units in Orange Beach was 6,084 as of March 2002. As is the case with Gulf Shores, the difference in the number of vacant units as estimated by the Census and the AGCCVB could easily reflect post 1999 construction. In Orange Beach, however, almost all the vacant units are vacation/occasional use properties. Orange Beach has by far the highest median owner-occupied home value at $204,500. This is $82,000 dollars more than the countywide level of $122,500. The high median price is indicative of the distribution of household values, which is illustrated in Table 32. There are literally no year-round, owner-occupied homes priced under $50,000 in this


community and only 29.2 percent of total owner-occupied homes in Orange Beach were valued below $150,000. On the other hand, almost one-third, or 29.9 percent were valued at or above $200,000 and 29 homes were valued at a million dollars or more. The contrast in home prices would be even more striking if condominiums were included.

Table 32 Single-Family, Owner-Occupied Housing, by Price Range,

City of Orange Beach

Value Number Percentage Cumulative Percentage

Less than $50,000 0 0.0 0.0 $50,000 to $99,999 73 8.0 8.0 $100,000 to $149,999 193 21.2 29.2 $150,000 to $199,999 183 20.1 49.3 $200,000 to $299,999 199 21.8 71.1 $300,000 to $499,999 142 15.6 86.7 $500,000 to $999,999 92 10.1 96.8 $1 million or more 29 3.2 100.0

Median $204,500


Approximately 30 percent of the year-round rental units cost less than $500 a month. The median rent figure of $577 dollars is slightly higher than the countywide level of $566, but far less than its Gulf Shores neighbor.

Table 33 Rental Rates in Orange Beach by Number

and Percent of Total Specified Units

Gross Rent Number Percentage

Less than $200 20 3.9 $200 to $299 10 2.0 $300 to $499 121 23.7 $500 to $749 207 40.6 $750 to $999 83 16.3 $1,000 to $1,400 31 6.1 $1,500 or more 0 0.0 No cash rent 38 7.5

Median $577

Source: Profile of Selected Housing Characteristics, 2000 U.S. Census There is much less Census information currently available for incorporated places and police jurisdictions on the Gulf Coast. Comparisons with data from the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau (AGCCVB) also indicates that the numbers listed below have not captured all the dwelling units and vacation homes in the Fort Morgan and Ono Island


locations. The AGCCVB reports that the condo population alone in Fort Morgan was 1,416 units as of March 2002, which is 534 more than the total housing unit tabulation by the Census.

Table 34 Total Housing Units in Fort Morgan


Occupied Units 271 30.7 Vacant Units 611 69.3 Occasional Use 442 50.1 Total Housing Units 882


The Census also reports that there are only 1,143 year-round residents and 535 households living in Fort Morgan and on Ono Island, which accounts for the very high number of vacant units, the vast majority of which are vacation/recreation/occasional use properties.

Table 35 Total Housing Units in Fort Morgan & Ono Island


Occupied Units 535 32.7 Vacant Units 1,079 66.0 Occasional Use 896 54.8 Total Housing Units 1,636


Total Population Assessment: The Components The total population of the Gulf Coast Area is made up of 6 population cohorts:

1. Year-round residents,

2. Part-time residents who reside in the area for periods of 30 days or longer, commonly referred to as �snowbirds.�

3. Commuters working in Gulf Coast communities

4. People visiting family and friends in their homes,

5. People staying in their own second homes or condominiums,


6. Local-area non-resident visitors, or �day trippers� who come to enjoy the beaches, restaurants, and other area recreational amenities.

The most difficult of these population components to estimate is the number of �day trippers.� To come up with this number we relied on average daily traffic counts supplied by the Alabama Department of Transportation. We had to first account for the traffic patterns of the other 5 population components. Using a process of elimination, we could then determine how many people visited the area on a daily basis during the year. Table 36 shows the average daily traffic counts, by month, traveling south on Highway 59 into Gulf Shores. The traffic counter is just north of the bridge crossing the Inter-Coastal Waterway (see Map), so it captures all the vehicles going to Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, and Orange Beach. While it is possible to get to this area by boat or ferry or by traveling from Florida, data provided by Evans-Klages indicates that 9s% of visitors come via auto, and virtually all of them feed through Highway 59 to access the area. Only 3.9% of these visitors came from Pensacola.

Table 36 Average Daily Traffic Count, by Month, South Into Gulf Coast on Highway 59

Month Count

January 27,651 February 32,798 March 37,515 April 37,098 May 38,140 June 41,850 July 38,717 August 30,626 September 29,841 October 27,804 November 25,042 December 22,655 Source: AlaDOT

Year Round Residents The total number of year-round residents that were residing in the Gulf Coast area as of 1999 should be an easy number to calculate. The Alabama Gulf Coast is typically defined as the area bounded on the east by Fort Morgan and by Orange Beach on the West, which would include Ono Island. In theory, all one has to do is sum the 2000 Census tabulations for the municipalities and non-incorporated places located within these boundaries. Unfortunately, it is not that easy. Census


population estimates for municipalities do not include residents residing in police jurisdictions. The information on unincorporated places is still very limited or not yet available from the Census. Consequently, we have looked to other information sources, in addition to the 2000 Census, such as the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau, LDR International, the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama, and the Center for Business and Economic Development at the University of Auburn at Montgomery, to generate reasonable population estimates. Summing the 2000 Census population for the Gulf Coast communities cited above yields a total of 9,971 year-round residents for the area. If there are at least 534 more dwelling units in Fort Morgan than was reported by the Census, and family size of approximately 2 people per household, we are talking about another 1,000 or so residents, or a total of approximately 11,000 people, at most, living on the Alabama Gulf Coast. Because most of the condo units are occasional use properties, we will work with the original Census tabulations for the area population (9,971) as a reasonable approximation of the number of year-round residents. Commuters The second population component is made up of commuters, individuals who live outside the Gulf Coast area, but who work in area businesses. Using 1990 Census data, since 2000 data is not yet available, we determined that 52.1% of the residents in Gulf Shores worked in Gulf Shores, while 47.9% worked outside the city. Applying these ratios to 2000 Census employment data indicated that 2,628 of the 6,750 jobs in Gulf Shores were being filled with Gulf Shore citizens. That means the remaining 4,122 jobs were filled by non-resident commuters. Doing a similar analysis for Orange Beach, we determined that 40.3% of the jobs are filled by year-round residents, so that out of the 4,058 jobs located within the political boundaries of the city, 2,533 were filled by non-resident, daily commuters. For both cities, a total of 6,655 people commuted to work in 2000. An examination of the Fort Morgan area and Ono Island indicated that these two locations were net exporters of workers and these people would have already been counted in resident totals. If we assume one person per vehicle, 5 days a week for 50 weeks, on an annualized basis, this translated into 1,663,750 vehicles per year entering the Gulf Coast Area for work-related purposes.


Paid Visitors For purposes of this study, we define paid visitors to include persons staying in overnight, paid accommodations for periods of 1 to 29 days. Paid accommodations include hotels, motels, rental condominiums and beach homes. Groups excluded by this definition include day-trippers, people visiting family and friends, people staying in their own homes or condos, and part-time residents staying in the area for 30 days or longer, commonly referred to as �snowbirds.� These latter groups make up the other components of the area�s total population.

Table 37 Visitor Information

Fall 2000

(Sept-Oct)

Winter 2000

(Nov-Feb)

Spring 2001

(Mar-May)

Summer 2001

(June-Aug)

Annual 2000/2001

Number of Visitors 236,447 276,882 228,517 468,894 1,210,740

Visitor Expenditures

$65,871,770 $96,770,259 $84,055,408 $167,235,734 $413,933,171


The total number of annual visitors to the Alabama Gulf Coast can be approximated by looking at the seasonal data listed in Table 37, which shows that on an annual basis, 1,210,740 people visited the area in 2000/2001. Converting the seasonal numbers listed above into monthly averages indicates that 118,224 people per month visited the Gulf Coast during the Fall, 69,221 people per month during the Winter months, 76,172 people per month came during the Spring, and 156,298 people per month visited during the Summer. Data supplied by Evans-Klages indicated that almost all these visitors, 92%, came to the area via automobile and there was, on average, 3.5 people per vehicle. Data supplied from the same source also indicated that the average length of stay was 5.5 days. Using this information we can estimate, if only roughly, how these visitors impact daily traffic counts. For example, in January the number of paid visitors staying less than 30 days totaled 69,221. If their average length of stay was 5.5 days, then there would have been 12,586 people coming to the area every 5.5 days. If the average party size for these travelers was 3.5 people per vehicle, then this would imply that 3,596 vehicles per day crossed into the Gulf Coast Area, mostly by way of highway 59. Obviously, the number of vehicles carrying visitors into the area will vary per month, but when aggregated by month using the same basic methodology, we attributed an average of 63,000 vehicle trips per day to such visitors during the year.


Snowbirds and Owners of Vacation Properties To estimate the number of snowbirds visiting the area the Alabama Gulf Coast Convention and Visitors Bureau used the difference between the lodgings tax receipts in 2000 and 2001. Since the lodgings tax did not apply to paid visitors who stayed over 30 days in 2000, the difference in tax revenues between these two years provides a rough approximation of the number of snow birds. Evans and Klages reported that the average daily rental rates were $40.41 in January and $44.81 in February. The AGCCVB took 80% of the average daily rentals to account for the fact that snowbirds generally pay less than short-term visitors. Using the adjusted daily rental rate of $32.33 in January and $35.85 in February, and assuming two people per dwelling unit, the AGCCVB estimated that for the months of January and February the number of snowbirds was 9,809 and $12,236 during 2002, respectively.

Table 38 Snowbird Population, January and February 2002

January February

Actual Lodgings Tax in 2001 $31,891,00 $63,968.00 Lodgings Tax in 2001 + 5% $33,485.55 $67,166.40 Lodgings Tax in 2002 $111,746.00 $169,914.00 Difference in Taxes Revenues Due to Snowbirds

$78,260.45

$102,748.60

Snowbird Lodgings Tax Revenues (Tax/0.02)

$3,913,022.50

$5,137,430.00

Daily Snowbird Revenue (Rev/ # of days) $126,226.53

$183,479.64

Daily Number of Snowbird Rooms (Rev/Adj. ADR)

3,904

5,116

Daily Number of Snowbird Occupants (Rms X 2)

7,809

10,236

Daily Number of Snowbird Occupants in Campgrounds

2,000

2,000

Daily Number of Snowbirds 9,809 12,236

The AGCCVB also estimated that during January and February 2000 snowbirds per day stayed in campgrounds. Because spring�break for many colleges occurs in March and Easter also fell in March, it was impossible to separate out the snowbird population from these other visitors. As a conservative, ballpark estimate we used 4,000 for the number of snowbirds visiting during March, for a 3-month total of 26,045 people.


We transformed these snowbird numbers into average daily traffic counts by assuming that each snowbird left their Gulf Coast dwelling unit once a day, traveling with 2 people per vehicle. If we further assume that each commuter drives his or her car to work each day, then non-resident workers average 6,655 trips per day. With 9,971 year-round residents assumed to make one round trip per day, with one resident per car, this totals to 16,626 vehicles per day attributable to non-resident workers and Gulf Coast residents. By aggregating the number of vehicle trips accounted for by commuters, residents, paid visitors staying less than 30 days, snowbirds, and second and vacation home owners, and then subtracting this number from the total average daily traffic, the residual should yield the number of day trippers visiting the area per month. Again, using the month of January as an example, we already know that residents (9,971), commuters, (6,655), and paid visitors (3,596), snowbirds (9,809/2) account for 25,126 daily round trip crossing on highway 59. If we subtract this number from the average daily traffic count for the month of January, which was 27,651, we are left with 2,525 vehicles per day that must be attributable to day-trippers and vacation homeowners (and their visitors). If we assume for the sake of this example that there were no second home vacationers traveling to the Gulf Coast in January and further assume 2 people per vehicle, there were approximately 5,050 day-trippers per day visiting during the month of January. Unfortunately, we were not able to ascertain the number of second and vacation homeowners from the County�s tax appraisal files. As a result we can only guess at this number. If we do not try to separate out the number of second and non-resident vacation homeowners, we can still generate a rough approximation of the total number of daily visitors to the area during 2000.

After subtracting the daily total traffic count heading south on highway 59 that represents residents, commuters, paid visitors, and snowbirds from the total daily traffic count we are left with a daily vehicle count 113,306. If we assume one person per vehicle, a very unrealistic assumption, then the total number of people who visited the area, at a minimum, for a day or less during 2001 was 3,399,180 using a 30-day month. Estimated month-to-month vehicle traffic attributable to the various population cohorts is included in the appendix to this study.


Table 39 Total Population, Alabama Gulf Coast Area, 2000/01

Population Cohort Number Percentage

Year-round Residents 9,971 0.22 Daily Commuters 6,655 0.14 Snowbirds 26,045 0.56 Paid Visitors < 30 Days 1,210,740 30.15 Vacation Homeowners * * Day-trippers 3,399,180 73.06 Total 4,652,591

The actual number of day-trippers could be much larger if each vehicle contained 2 or 3 people. Using 2 people per vehicle would result in 6.8 million day trippers per year. Even allowing for a sizeable number of second and out-of-town property owners, and if we assume that residents, short-term visitors, and snowbirds make more than one roundtrip to the Coast per day, at most this might account for 1 million vehicles per year. That would still leave over 5 million day-tripper visits during 2002.


Economic Analysis Of September 11th

Tourism plays a vital role in the in the U.S. economy as well as the Alabama Gulf Coast area. Tourism is the second largest industry in the United States, following health care. Tourism is the most important industry and largest employer in the Gulf Coast area of Alabama. Millions of tourists visit the area and contribute to the economy by patronizing restaurants, retail shops, entertainment venues and other businesses. Even residents of the area who do not work directly in the tourism industry benefit from the revenues generated by visitors. Local governments reap the benefits through the major sources of municipal revenue, sales and lodging taxes. To keep tourism strong and growing, people must feel confident about the economy and freely spend their discretionary income. The events of September 11th proved to have a direct impact on the nation�s travel industry, including Alabama and the Gulf Coast area. The table below shows the state lodging taxes from 1997-2001.

Table 40 State Lodging Collections

Calendar Years 1997-2001

Year January-August

September-December

Percentage Change January-August

Percentage Change

September-December

2001 21,422,972 7,797,517 3.6 -8.5 2000 20,678,116 8,524,599 7.8 7.5 1999 19,177,276 7,931,109 3.8 7.1 1998 18,479,576 7,403,177 6.7 9.4 1997 17,324,690 6,765,940 ---- ---

Source: Center for Business and Economic Development, AUM; Economic Impact, Alabama Travel Industry 2001

In order to establish the effects of September 11th on the state�s travel industry, the lodging tax data was grouped into two sub-periods; January-August and September-December. As Table 40 shows, 2001 was the only year Alabama experienced a decline in lodging tax collections for the September-December sub-period. This can be attributed to the events of September 11th and its impact on the travel habits of people and the travel industry in Alabama.


To estimate the financial impact these events had on the tourism industry in Alabama, the Auburn University at Montgomery�s Economic Impact Report provided a description of how the impact was calculated. “The average growth rates of the state lodging collections for the two sub-periods for 1998-2000 were averaged and determined to be 6.1% for January-August and 8.0% for September-December. This shows a 1.9% growth rate differential between the first sub-period and the second sub-period from 1998-2000. The growth rates between the sub-periods of 2001 were adjusted to neutralize the economic impact of September 11th. This was done by replacing the negative 8.5% growth in lodging tax with a positive growth rate of 5.5% for the second sub-period of 2001. This adjustment rendered a total lodging tax collection of $30.4 million for Alabama in 2001. In other words, if September 11th had not occurred, Alabama lodging tax most likely would have grown by 4.2% compared to the actual growth rate of approximately 1% that was realized in 2001. Adjusting for this impact, it is estimated that without the September 11th events, Alabama tourism would have grown to $6.3 billion in 2001. This suggests that the impact of the tragic events in September of 2001 is estimated to have lowered the total tourism impact in Alabama by $260 million for the year.” Needless to say, the impact of September 11th was felt all over the state, including Baldwin County. However, the impact was less than in many other destinations. Although the state�s growth rate was a mere 1%, the growth was still positive. Many states and tourist destinations across the country experienced negative double-digit impact. Baldwin County represents 20.7% of the total number of visitors to the state of Alabama. Therefore, the effect of September 11th can be estimated to be $53.8 million in lost revenues.


Appendix

Estimation of Visitors, 2001 January February March

Number Number

in Car Number of Cars Number Number

in Car Number of Cars

Number Number in Car

Number of Cars

Residents 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 Commuters 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 Paid < 30 Days 12,586 3.5 3,596 12,586 3.5 3,596 13,850 3.5 3,957 Snowbirds 9,808 2 4,904 12,236 2 6,118 4,000 2 2,000 Total 25,126 26,340 22,583

ADTC 27,651 32,798 37,514 Difference 2,525 6,458 14,931 X Days/Month 78,275 180,824 462,857 X People/Car 234,825 542,472 1,388,570

April May June Number Number




Residents 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 Commuters 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 Paid < 30 Days 13,850 3.5 3,957 13,850 3.5 3,957 28,418 3.5 8,119 Snowbirds 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 Total 20,583 0 20,583 0 24,745 ADTC 37,098 38,140 41,850 Difference 16,515 17,557 17,105 X Days/Month 495,446 544,263 513,139 X People/Car 1,486,337 1,632,788 1,539,416


July August September

Number Number



Number of Cars


Number of Cars

Residents 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 Commuters 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 Paid < 30 Days 28,418 3.5 8,119 28,418 3.5 8,119 21,495 3.5 6,141 Snowbirds 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 Total 0 24,745 0 24,745 22,767 ADTC 38,717 30,626 28,841 Difference 13,972 5,881 6,074 X Days/Month 433,120 182,299 182,206 X People/Car 1,299,361 546,898 546,617

October November December


Number of Cars


Number of Cars


Number of Cars

Residents 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 9,971 1 9,971 Commuters 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 6,655 1 6,655 Paid < 30 Days 21495 3.5 6,141 12,586 3.5 3,596 12,586 3.5 3,596 Snowbirds 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 Total 22,767 20,222 20,222

ADTC 27,804 25,042 22,655 Difference 50,37 4,820 2,433 X Days/Month 156,132 144,604 75,427 X People/Car 468,396 433,812 226,281

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