The aluminium market analysis, financials and forecasting 2013 2023

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The Aluminium Market Analysis Financials and Forecasting 2013-2023

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Contents 1. Executive Summary

1.1 Global Market Overview

1.2 Benefits of this Report

1.3 Who is this Report for?

1.4 Methodology

1.5 Global Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

1.6 Aluminium End-Use Sector Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

1.7 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

2. Introduction to the Aluminium Market 2.1 Aluminium Report Structure Overview

2.2 Recycling and Secondary Aluminium

2.3 Aluminium Production Processes

2.4 Aluminium Consumption by Sector

2.5 Properties of Aluminium

2.6 Assumptions and Explanations

2.7 Segmentation of Regions

3. Global Aluminium Market Forecast, 2013 - 2023 3.1 Geographical Forecast and Analysis of the Aluminium Market, 2013 – 2023

3.2 Global Aluminium Market Value Forecast, 2013 - 2023

3.3 Global Aluminium Market Drivers and Restraints

4. Aluminium End-Use Sectors Forecast 2013 - 2023 4.1 Aluminium Consumption in the Transportation Sector, 2013 - 2023

4.1.1 Analysis of Aluminium Consumption by the Transportation Sector

4.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Construction Sector, 2013 - 2023

4.2.1 Analysis of Aluminium Consumption by the Construction Sector

4.3 Aluminium Consumption in the Packaging Sector, 2013 - 2023

4.3.1 Analysis of Aluminium Consumption by the Packaging Sector

4.4 Aluminium Consumption in the Electrical Sector, 2013 - 2023

4.4.1 Analysis of Aluminium Consumption by the Electrical Sector

4.5 Aluminium Consumption in the Consumer Goods Sector, 2013 - 2023

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Contents 5. Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023 5.0.1 Breakdown of Regional Aluminium Consumption Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

5.1 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.1.0 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.1.1 Discover how far China’s Insatiable Demand for Aluminium will Grow Between 2013 -2023

5.1.2 The Rise of Urban China

5.1.3 China’s Secondary Aluminium Production Market 2013 - 2023

5.2 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013-2023

5.2.0 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.2.1 The Exciting Growth in Aluminium Consumption by Other-Asian Nations

5.2.2 Japanese Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.2.3 Indian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.2.4 Which Surprising Sector Accounts for 42% of India’s Aluminium Consumption?

5.3 North American Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.3.0 North American Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.3.1 Discover the Mixed Fortunes of North America’s Aluminium Markets

5.3.2 US Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.3.3 Which Major Aluminium Consuming Sector Will Account for Only 6% of US Aluminium

Consumption in 2023?

5.3.4 Canadian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.4 Western European Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.4.0 Western European Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.4.1 How Diversified is Western European Aluminium Consumption?

5.4.2 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.5 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.5.0 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.5.1 Which Three Nations Dominate Eastern European Aluminium Consumption?

5.5.2 Russian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.5.3 Other Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.6 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.6.0 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.6.1 Brazilian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.7 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

5.7.0 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

5.7.1 Discover Why visiongain Predicts Rapid Aluminium Production Growth In the Middle East

5.8 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

5.8.0 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints

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Contents 6. SWOT Analysis of the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023 6.1 Strengths of the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

6.1.1 Attractive Combination of Properties

6.1.2 Low Emissions

6.2 Weaknesses of the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

6.2.1 Volatile Prices

6.2.2 Warehousing

6.3 Opportunities in the Aluminium Market, 2013 – 2023

6.3.1 The Emergence of the Middle East

6.3.2 Automobile Market Recovery

6.4 Threats to the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

6.4.1 Regional or Global Economic Slowdowns

6.4.2 Aluminium Substitutes

6.4.3 The Secondary Aluminium Market

7. Expert Opinion 7.1 UC Rusal

7.1.1 Key Trends and Developments in the Aluminium Market, 2013 – 2023

7.1.2 Opportunities and Challenges in the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

7.1.3 Green Energy and the Impact of ‘The Shale Revolution’

7.1.4 2013 Aluminium Market Review

7.1.5 UC Rusal Demand Patterns

7.2 Silver Ice Beverages

7.2.1 Advantages of Aluminium Packaging over Rival Materials

7.2.2 Weight of Aluminium Used Per Product

7.2.3 Aluminium Has Inelastic Demand

7.2.4 Positive Outlook for Aluminium Packaging

8. Leading Companies in the Aluminium Market 8.1 Aluminium Company of America (Alcoa)

8.2 Aluminium Bahrain (Alba)

8.3 Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco)

8.4 BHP Billiton

8.5 Dubai Aluminium Limited (Dubal)

8.6 Hindalco Industries Limited

8.7 National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO)

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Contents 8.8 Norsk Hydro

8.9 Rio Tinto Group

8.10 UC Rusal

8.11 Other Leading Companies in the Aluminium Market

9. Conclusion 9.1 Supply and Demand Balances in the Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

9.1.1 Oversupply and Warehousing

9.1.2 Chinese Demand Growth

9.1.3 The Race to the Bottom and the Emergence of the Middle East

9.2 Aluminium Market Price Forecast, 2013 – 2023

9.3 Drivers and Restraints of the Global Aluminium Market, 2013 - 2023

9.4 Global Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

9.5 Aluminium End-Use Consumption Forecast, 2013 – 2023

9.6 Leading Regional Aluminium Market Forecast, 2013 - 2023

10. Glossary

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Contents List of Tables Table 1.5.1 Global Aluminium Market Consumption Forecast Summary 2013, 2018, 2023 (Million

Tonnes, CAGR %)

Table 1.6.1 Aluminium End-Use Sector Consumption Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018 and 2023

(Million Tonnes, CAGR %)

Table 1.7.1 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018 and 2023


Table 3.1 Global Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013-2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %, CAGR%,

Cumulative)

Table 3.2 Global Aluminium Market Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($Billion, AGR %, CAGR%)

Table 3.3 Global Aluminium Market Drivers and Restraints

Table 4.1 Aluminium Consumption by End-Use Sector Forecasts 2013-2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%)

Table 4.1.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Transportation Sector 2013-2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 4.2.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Construction Sector 2013-2023 (Million


Table 4.3.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Packaging Sector 2013-2023 (Million


Table 4.4.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Electrical Sector 2013-2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 4.5.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Consumer Goods Sector 2013-2023 (Million


Table 5.0.1 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013-2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%)

Table 5.1.1 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.1.2 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 – 2023

Table 5.2.1 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.2.2 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 - 2023

Table 5.2.3 Japanese Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.2.4 Indian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.2.5 Indian Aluminium Production 2012 (Company, Location, Annual Capacity (‘000

Tonnes), Cumulative Total)

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Contents Table 5.3.1 North American Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%, CAGR %)

Table 5.3.2 North American Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 - 2023

Table 5.3.3 US Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 5.3.4 US Aluminium Production 2012 (Location, Annual Capacity (‘000 Tonnes), Ownership)

Table 5.3.5 Canadian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.4.1 Western European Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 5.4.2 Western European Aluminium Consumption Drivers and Restraints, 2013 -2023

Table 5.4.3 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.4.4 German Aluminium Production 2012 (Smelter Name, Location, Ownership, Annual

Capacity (‘000 Tonnes), Cumulative Total)

Table 5.5.1 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 5.5.2 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Drivers and Restraints, 2013 -2023

Table 5.5.3 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption per Capita Comparison 2012 (KG per

Capita)

Table 5.5.4 Russian Aluminium Production 2012 (Company, Location, Annual Capacity (‘000

Tonnes), Cumulative Total)

Table 5.6.1 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %, CAGR %)

Table 5.6.2 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 - 2023

Table 5.6.3 Brazilian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.6.4 Forecast of Brazilian against Other BRIC Members’ Urban Population (% of Total

Population), 1980, 2012 and 2023

Table 5.7.1 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%, CAGR %)

Table 5.7.2 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 - 2023 Table 5.7.3 Middle Eastern Aluminium Production and Consumption Forecast 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %)

Table 5.7.4 Middle Eastern Aluminium Production 2012 (Smelter Name, Location, Ownership,

Annual Capacity (‘000 Tonnes), Cumulative Total)

Table 5.8.1 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Table 5.8.2 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Drivers & Restraints, 2013 - 2023

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Contents Table 6.1 SWOT Analysis of the Aluminium Market, 2013 – 2023

Table 8.1 Leading 10 Producers of Aluminium Market 2012 - Total Revenue ($bn), Aluminium

Output (Million Tonnes), Aluminium Output Rank, Market Share (% of Total Market Production)

Table 8.2 Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa) Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn),

Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes), Market Share (% of Total Market Production), Headquarters,

Ticker, Contact, Website

Table 8.3 Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output

(Million Tonnes), Market Share (% of Total Market Production), Headquarters, Ticker, Contact,

Website

Table 8.4 Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn),



Table 8.5 BHP Billiton Overview - (Total Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes),

Market Share (% of Total Market Production), Headquarters, Ticker, Contact, Website

Table 8.6 Dubai Aluminium Company Limited (Dubal) Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn),



Table 8.7 Hindalco Industries Limited Overview - (Total Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output (Million

Tonnes), Market Share (% of Total Market Production), Headquarters, Ticker, Contact, Website

Table 8.8 National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO) Overview - (Total Revenue ($bn),



Table 8.9 Norsk Hydro Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes),


Table 8.10 Rio Tinto Group Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output (Million

Tonnes), Market Share (% of Total Market Production), Headquarters, Ticker, Contact, Website

Table 8.11 UC Rusal Overview - Aluminium Revenue ($bn), Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes),


Table 8.12 Other Leading Companies in the Aluminium Market 2013 (Company, Headquarters,

Website)

Table 9.4.1 Global Aluminium Consumption Forecast Summary 2013, 2018 and 2023 (Million

Tonnes, CAGR %)

Table 9.5.1 Global Aluminium End Use Consumption Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018 and 2023


Table 9.6.1 Leading Regional Consumption Forecasts Summary 2013, 2018 and 2023 (Million

Tonnes, CAGR %)

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Contents List of Figures Figure 2.1 Aluminium Report Structure Overview

Figure 2.2 Global Secondary Aluminium Production 2012 (% of Global Production)

Figure 2.3 Major Aluminium End-Use Sectors

Figure 2.4 Global Aluminium Consumption by End-Use Sector 2012 (% Of Global Consumption)

Figure 3.1 Global Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2012 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %,

CAGR %)

Figure 3.2 Global Aluminium Market Value Forecast 2013-2023 ($Billion, AGR %)

Figure 4.1 Aluminium Consumption by End-Use Sector Forecasts 2013-2023 (Million Tonnes)

Figure 4.2 End-Use Sectors of Aluminium Forecast 2013 (% of Total Consumption)



Figure 4.1.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Transportation Sector, 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 4.1.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Transportation Sector Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and

2023 (% Total Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 4.2.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Construction Sector, 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 4.2.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Construction Sector Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and


Figure 4.2.3 Global Urban Population Forecast 1982 – 2023 (Billion People)

Figure 4.3.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Packaging Sector, 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 4.3.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Packaging Sector Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and


Figure 4.3.3 Global Beverage Packaging Market Breakdown by Material, 2012 (% of Total Market)

Figure 4.3.4 Global Beverage Packaging Market Breakdown by Material Forecast, 2023 (% of

Total Market)

Figure 4.4.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Electrical Sector, 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 4.4.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Electrical Sector Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

(% Total Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 4.5.1 Aluminium Consumption Forecast for the Consumer Goods Sector, 2012 – 2023

(Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 4.5.2 Aluminium Consumption in the Consumer Goods Sector Share Forecast 2013, 2018

and 2023 (% Total Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 5.1 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023, (Million Tonnes)

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Contents Figure 5.2 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Share Forecast 2013 (%)

Figure 5.3 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Share Forecast 2018 (%)

Figure 5.4 Leading Regional Aluminium Consumption Share Forecast 2023 (%)

Figure 5.1.1 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.1.2 Chinese Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (%

Global Share)

Figure 5.1.3 Chinese Aluminium Consumption 2012, Compared Against US 2012 Consumption

and ROW 2012 Consumption

Figure 5.1.4 Chinese Aluminium Consumption by End-Use Sector Forecast, 2012 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes)

Figure 5.1.5 Chinese Urban Population Forecast, 1982 – 2023 (% of Total Chinese Population)

Figure 5.1.6 Chinese Primary Aluminium Imports by Country, 2012 (% of Total Chinese Aluminium

Imports)

Figure 5.1.7 Chinese Scrap Aluminium Imports, 1992 – 2012 (Million Tonnes)

Figure 5.1.8 Chinese Scrap Aluminium Imports and Exports Forecast, 2010 – 2023 (Tonnes)

Figure 5.2.1 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.2.2 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (%

Global Share)

Figure 5.2.3 Other Asian Aluminium Consumption by Nation 2012 (% of Total Other Asian

Consumption)

Figure 5.2.4 Japanese Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.2.5 Japanese Asian Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and

2023 (% Global Share)

Figure 5.2.6 Japanese Aluminium Consumption by End-Sector 2012 (% of Total Japanese

Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 5.2.7 Japanese Aluminium Imports by Destination 2012 (% Total of Japanese Imports)

Figure 5.2.8 Indian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.2.9 Indian Asian Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

(% Global Share)

Figure 5.2.10 Indian Aluminium Consumption by End-Sector 2012 (% of Total Indian Aluminium

Consumption)

Figure 5.2.11 Indian Aluminium Consumption by End-Sector Forecast 2023 (% of Total Indian


Figure 5.3.1 North American Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%)

Figure 5.3.2 North American Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and


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Contents Figure 5.3.3 North American Aluminium Production and Consumption Forecast Comparison 2008 -

2023 (Million Tonnes)

Figure 5.3.4 US Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.3.5 US Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Global

Share)

Figure 5.3.6 US Aluminium Consumption by End-Use Sector Forecast 2009 – 2023 (Million

Tonnes)

Figure 5.3.7 US Aluminium Production Forecast 2008 – 2023 (Million Tonnes)

Figure 5.3.8 Canadian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.3.9 Canadian Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (%

Global Share)

Figure 5.3.10 Canadian Aluminium Production Forecast 2008 – 2023 (Million Tonnes)

Figure 5.3.11 Canadian Aluminium Consumption as a Percentage of Canadian Aluminium

Consumption Forecast 2008 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, %)

Figure 5.4.1 Western European Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %)

Figure 5.4.2 Western European Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and


Figure 5.4.3 Western European Aluminium Consumption by Country 2012 (% of Western

European Total Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 5.4.4 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.4.5 German Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (%

Global Share)

Figure 5.5.1 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes,

AGR %)

Figure 5.5.2 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and


Figure 5.5.3 Eastern European Aluminium Consumption by Country 2012 (% of Eastern European

Total Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 5.5.4 Russian Aluminium Production Market Share 2012 (% Eastern European Total

Aluminium Production)

Figure 5.6.1 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%)

Figure 5.6.2 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

(% Global Share)

Figure 5.6.3 Latin American Bauxite Production by Country 2012 (% of Latin American Total

Bauxite Production)

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Contents Figure 5.6.4 Latin American Aluminium Consumption by Country 2012 (% of Latin American Total


Figure 5.6.5 Brazilian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.6.6 Latin American Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

(% Global Share)

Figure 5.6.7 Comparison of Brazilian against Other Major Economic Power’s Urban Population

1980 – 2012 (% of Total Population)

Figure 5.7.1 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR

%)

Figure 5.7.2 Middle Eastern Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023

(% Global Share)

Figure 5.7.3 Middle Eastern Aluminium Production and Consumption Forecast 2008 – 2023

(Million Tonnes)

Figure 5.8.1 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2013 – 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Figure 5.8.2 Oceanian Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (%

Global Share)

Figure 6.1 Secondary Aluminium Production by Nation 2012 (% of Global Secondary Production)

Figure 8.1 Leading 10 Aluminium Producers and Other Companies Output Comparison 2012 (% of

Total Global Output)

Figure 9.1 Aluminium Composite Market Price Forecast 2013 – 2023 (US$ Per Tonne - High,

Expected , Low)

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Contents Companies Mentioned in This Report

Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA)

Aditya Birla Group

Aluar Aluminio Argentino (SAIC)

Aluminerie Alouette Inc.

Aluminium Company of America (Alcoa)

Aluminium Bahrain (Alba)

Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco)

Aluminium Federation (Alfed)

Aluminium Romania (Alro)

Anheuser–Busch InBev

Apollo Global Management

Apple

Atal Indore City Transport Service Ltd (AICTSL)

Audi

Ball Packaging

Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Corporation Limited

BHP Billiton

Bombardier

Carling

Carlsberg

Century Aluminum Company

Coca-Cola

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio

Dubai Aluminium Company Limited (Dubal)

Egypt Aluminium Company

Emirates Aluminium Company Limited (EMAL)

Emirates Global Aluminium

Exal

Fiat

Glencore

Goldman Sachs

Guinea Alumina

Heineken

Hidroelectrica

Hindalco Industries Limited

Honda

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Contents Hoogovens Aluminium Huttemberg

Hydro Aluminium

iBus Networks

Jaguar

Kaiser Aluminum

Kombinat Aluminijuma Podgorica A.D.

Mitsubishi Aluminium Company Ltd.

MillerCoors

Mubadala

National Aluminium Company Limited (NALCO)

Nissan

Norsk Hydro

Novelis

Oman Oil Company

Ormet Corporation

PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium

Qatar Petroleum

Qataulm

Range Rover

Rexam

Rio Tinto Alcan

Rio Tinto Group

Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC)

Silver Ice Beverages

Slovalco a.s.

Sohar Aluminium

Tata Motors

Toyota

Trimet Aluminium

UC Rusal

Vedanta

Vimetco

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Contents Other Organisations Mentioned in This Report

Aluminium Packaging Recycling Organisation (Alupro)

Australian Securities Exchange

Bombay Stock Exchange

European Union

FIFA

Gov.uk

Government of Australia

Government of Bahrain

Government of Brazil

Government of China

Government of India

Government of Japan

Government of New Zealand

Government of Ukraine

Government of The United Arab Emirates

Hong Kong Stock Exchange

International Olympic Committee

Johannesburg Stock Exchange

London Metal Exchange

London Stock Exchange

MercoSur

Metropolitan Transportation Authority

National Stock Exchange of India

New York Stock Exchange

Transport for London

World Bank

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The Aluminium Market Analysis, Financials and Forecasting 2013-2023

Source: Visiongain, 2013

Source: Visiongain, 2013

Electric 42%

Transportation 14%

Construction 17%

Consumer Goods 8%

Packaging 10%

Other 9%

Transportation 23%

Construction 27%

Electric 18%

Other 7%

Packaging 16%

Consumer Goods

9%

Figure 5.2.10 Indian Aluminium Consumption by End-Sector 2012 (% of Total Indian Aluminium Consumption)

Figure 5.2.11 Indian Aluminium Consumption by End-Sector Forecast 2023 (% of Total Indian Aluminium Consumption)

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5.4.2 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast, 2013 - 2023

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2013-23Consumption(M Tonnes) 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 72.1AGR (%) 2.1 3.4 3.1 4.4 3.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.2 2.2 2.5

2018-23 3.3

3.5

3.8CAGR (%) 2013-18

CAGR (%) 2013-23

Figure 5.4.5 German Aluminium Consumption Market Share Forecast 2013, 2018 and 2023 (% Global Share)

2013 2018 2023

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

AGR

%

Cons

umpt

ion

(Mill

ion

Tonn

es)

Market Consumption AGR %

11%

9%

9%

Source: Visiongain 2013


Figure 5.4.4 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2012 - 2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %)

Table 5.4.3 German Aluminium Consumption Forecast 2012-2023 (Million Tonnes, AGR %, CAGR %)


Page 118

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7. Expert Opinion

7.1 UC RUSAL Mr. Oleg Mukhamedshin is deputy CEO of UC RUSAL, the world’s largest producer of aluminium,

which was established in March 2007 following the merger of assets of three companies: RUSAL,

previously the third largest global aluminium company; SUAL, one of the world’s top ten players in

the aluminium business; and the alumina assets of Glencore (Switzerland).

UC RUSAL's asset includes bauxite and nepheline ore mines, alumina refineries, aluminium

smelters, cast house business for alloys production, aluminium foil mills and production of

aluminium packaging materials as well as power-generating assets. The company’s operations are

spread across 19 countries in 5 continents, with an employ base of around 72,000 people.

Visiongain thanks Mr. Oleg Mukhamedshin for lending his valuable time and sharing his opinion on

the aluminium market.

7.1.1 Key Trends and Developments in the Aluminium Market, 2013 –

2023

Visiongain: What would you say are the key trends and developments for aluminium, and why?

How will these occur over the next ten years?

Oleg Mukhamedshin: We expect aluminum demand to keep growing at a healthy pace over the

next ten years. Emerging markets are expected to continue to drive major growth. Smelter

production is anticipated to grow at a slower rate than aluminum consumption over the same period

as lower aluminum price and industry restructuring will lead to slower new capacity growth and

curtailments of unprofitable capacity. As a result, the aluminum demand is expected to outstrip

supplies from 2015 onwards. Aluminum price is projected to be in a sustainable upward trend after

2015-2016.

Transport and construction will dominate aluminum consumption. As expected, aluminum will be

more widely used in cars to save fuel costs and reduce CO2 emissions. Thus average content of

aluminum in cars will rise from the current 140-150 kg to 180-200 kg per car over the next ten

years. Large infrastructural projects in China, the Middle East, India and Brazil will continue to drive

demand in construction.

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8.1 Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa)

Table 8.2 Aluminum Company of America (Alcoa) Overview - Aluminium Revenue

($bn), Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes), Market Share (% of Total Market

Production), Headquarters, Ticker, Contact, Website

2012 Aluminium Revenue ($bn) $23.7bn Aluminium Output (Million Tonnes)

3.7 Million Tonnes

Market Share (%) 8.8% Headquarters Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA Ticker NYSE: AA IR Contact Alcoa Investor Relations

(http://www.alcoa.com/global/en/investment/contact_ir.asp)

Website www.Alcoa.com

Aluminium Company of America (or Alcoa) is the world's third largest producer of aluminium, after

Rio Tinto Alcan and UC Rusal. The company engages in the production and management of

primary aluminium, fabricated aluminium, and alumina worldwide. Alcoa involves in the technology,

mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling of aluminium. Its non-aluminium products

include precision castings, and aerospace and industrial fasteners. Alcoa offers flat-rolled products,

such as a sheet and plate, foil products, and can reclamations; engineered products and solutions,

including titanium, aluminium and super alloy investment castings, hard alloy extrusions, forgings

and fasteners, aluminium wheels, integrated aluminium structural systems, and architectural

extrusions; and automotive components.

The company serves clients in aerospace, automotive, packaging, construction, commercial

transport, consumer electronics and industrial markets. Founded in 1888, Alcoa has operations in

Australia, Brazil, China, Iceland, Guinea, Russia, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Klaus Kleinfeld

is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and William F. Oplinger serves as Chief Financial

Officer of Alcoa.


Date post:	06-May-2015
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