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©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
The American Attribution Index: Using Advertising Attribution Management
to Improve Media Mix Allocation
Thursday, October 1, 20091 PM EDT
Speakers: Adam GoldbergPurush Papatla
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
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©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Adam Goldberg, Chief Innovation Officer
Co-Founded ClearSaleing Inc. in 2006Columbus, OH
Started Google’s inside sales organization in 2003-2006New York City, NY
Started Actuate’s inside sales organization in 2000-2003San Francisco, CA
Worked for Oracle Corp. in 1998-2000 in Major Account SalesRedwood Shores, CA
Speaker and Trainer at events such as: (SMX), (SES), (DMA)
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Dr. Purush Papatla
President and Founder; Vetra AnalyticsPublished in top-tier marketing journals
» Marketing Science» Journal of Marketing Research» Journal of Business Research» Journal of Retailing» Journal of Interactive Marketing
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Clear’-Sale’ing (klir sāl ing) n. 1. an advertising technology and analytics company
2. the only effective way to manage an online advertising portfolio and increase profit (ROI) for online advertisers
v. 1. continually improving the ROI of online advertising campaigns
2. easily and transparently increasing sales and profits
CLEARSALEING DEFINED
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
The American Attribution Index: Using Advertising Attribution Management
to Improve Media Mix Allocation
Thursday, October 1, 20091 PM EDT
Speakers: Adam GoldbergPurush Papatla
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
EVOLUTION OF ATTRIBUTION MANAGEMENT
Last Click Even Exclusions Rules Based Mathematical
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Poll Question 1
Currently, how are you attributing conversion credit to your various ad
sources?1. Last click
2. Other attribution method
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
The American Attribution Index (AAI) is the first-ever attribution management index that measures the relative effectiveness of each online advertising source and influence factor on consumer purchases and conversions.
THE AMERICAN ATTRIBUTION INDEX (AAI)
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
THREE SUBSETS OF AAI
» AAI: Aggregate Indices
» AAI: Vertical Industry Indices
» AAI: Company-Specific Indices
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES
The Aggregate Indices serve as important barometers of each advertising source’s relative impact and influence on consumers' purchasing decisions. Since they represent an aggregate measure across all industries and companies, the Aggregate Indices should not be used to make advertising allocation decisions for a specific company.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES
The Aggregate Indices can be used, however, to gain strategic insight into the relative influence and trends of the respective advertising sources in general.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AAI AGGREGATE INDICES MAKEUP
Given that company size and level of advertising budget often dictate the range and mix of advertising sources employed, the AAI: Aggregate will be comprised of 3 sub-indices:
• Large Advertisers > $2M yr in online ad spend• Medium Advertisers $300K to $2M yr in online ad spend• Small Advertisers < $300K yr in online ad spend
* The size breakdown could change in the future
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
NO HYPOTHESIS
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STATISTICAL MODELS & DISCRETE DATA ANALYSES
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
INFLUENCE POTENTIAL
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
RATE OF DECAY
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
ABANDONED PATHS
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
PURCHASE AND ABANDONED PATHS
1,300,000+
500,000+ Purchase 800,000+ Abandoned
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 1
» ClearSaleing and Vetra Analytics built several statistical models to evaluate visitor buying behavior using Purchase Path data collected by the ClearSaleing platform for a particular company.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 2
» Next, the models were tested and calibrated against actual historical data to ensure that the models were able to perform well in capturing, explaining and predicting buyer behavior.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 3
» The best model was then selected. Using the outputs of this model, channel-specific attributions were developed.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 4
» Next, the channel-specific attributions were used to develop influence weights for each channel (advertising source), where the influence weight represented how much influence a given source had in affecting a visitor’s decision to buy or not buy.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 5
» These four steps were then repeated for multiple companies in multiple industry sectors.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 6
» The companies were then segmented based on several criteria, such as total ad-spend or the company's vertical industry.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 6
» The influence weights were then aggregated across companies within a segment.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
STEP 6
Segment-specific indices were then developed:
» AAI: Aggregate» AAI: Vertical Industry Indices
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
THE AMERICAN ATTRIBUTION INDEX
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Poll Question 2
What challenges have you run into when trying to build an attribution model?
1. Our technology cannot track beyond the last ad clicked
2. We cannot build a sound mathematical model
3. We cannot incorporate offline, social media, and word of mouth advertising
4. All of the above
5. We haven’t tried to build an attribution model
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES Organic PPC CSE Email Display Affiliate Direct
Google Brand Google Content Froogle Newsletter Click Brand Affinity Program Direct
Google Non-Brand
Google Brand BizRate Offer Click Other Other
Yahoo Brand Google Non-Brand
Shopzilla Auto-Response Impression Brand
Yahoo Non-Brand
Yahoo Brand Nextag Impression Other
Bing Brand Yahoo Non-Brand
Shopping
Bing Non-Brand Bing Brand Other
Ask Brand Bing Non-Brand
Ask Non-Brand Ask Brand
Other Brand Ask Non-Brand
Other Non-Brand Other Brand
Craigslist Other Non-Brand
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
Google Other
Model Number Product Name Competitor General
FURTHER ATTRIBUTES OF AD SOURCES
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
INFLUENCE POTENTIAL of an influencer = f (# of exposures,
when each of the exposures occurred,
decay rate of the effect of exposures)
MODELING THE INFLUENCE POTENTIAL
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
HOW TO DO CALCULATION ON INDIVIDUAL PATHS
» Take weights of ad sources from pie chart
» Normalize the ad sources used in that Path to 100%
» Example ->
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
EXAMPLE OF NORMALIZING TO 100%
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
How do you see your company incorporating Attribution Management into your marketing decisions going forward?
1.) Build an in-house technical solution
2.) Purchase a third party solution
3.) Rely on your current agency or hire an agency
4.) Use the tools you have today
Poll Question 3
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
REGULAR ONGOING ACCESS TO AAI CRITICAL
» (1) the continual addition of more and more data from the new companies who join AAI
» (2) changes that occur in macroeconomic environmental factors
» (3) changes that occur in advertising options and measurement technology.
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AAI UPDATES
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AAI VERTICALIZATION TODAY
» eTail
» Finance
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
ANECDOTAL ’REASONS’ BEHIND THE RESULTS
» Why are there such differences in weights between companies that have different ad spend?
» Why does email and comparison shopping have such little influence?
» What changes do we expect to see as more company’s data is incorporated into the AAI?
©2009 Third Door Media, Inc.
AUDIENCE QUESTIONS
?
Questions?
Adam Goldberg- www.attributionmanagement.com [email protected]
www.clearsaleing.com
Upcoming SMN webcast: October 13, PPC Negative Keywords: Maximizing the Positive
Effect