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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution,
Current Status and Prediction
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
September 10, 2012
For more information, visit:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
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Outline• Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions
• Monsoon Prediction
• Summary
• Climatology
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Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days
During the past 90 days, parts of India, east-central China, parts of Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia and southwestern Australia had below normal rainfall. Severe shortages of monsoon rainfall exist over Gujarat, peninsular areas and northern and western parts of India.
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Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days
The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over India and much of southeast Asia was generally above normal, particularly over northwest India. This recent abundant rain in late August-early September period is compensating for the below normal rainfall earlier in the monsoon season. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) the all India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) from 1st June thru the 5th of September is now deficient by only about 10 % from their long term normal. This deficiency was as high as 20% just a few weeks ago.
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Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days
This past week, Central India, Gujarat and northwest regions bordering Pakistan received lots of seasonal rainfall.
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Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes
The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
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Atmospheric Circulation
The anomalous cyclonic circulation in the low level flow was associated with copious rainfall over northwest India..
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SummaryDuring the past 90 days, parts of India, east-central China, parts of Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia and southwestern Australia had below normal rainfall. Severe shortages of seasonal monsoon rainfall exist over Gujarat, peninsular areas and northern and western parts of India. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over India and much of southeast Asia was however above normal, particularly over northwest India. This recent abundant rain in late August-early September period is compensating for the below normal rainfall earlier in the monsoon season. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) the all India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) from 1st June thru the 5th of September is now deficient by only about 10 % from their long term normal. This deficiency was as high as 20% just a few weeks ago. If the current weekly trend continues in rainfall amounts , there is a potential for the JJAS monsoon rainfall season in the Indian subcontinent to finish in the normal range. NCEP/GFS’s week1 and week2 forecasts and time series of the 5x5 degree grid boxes are still not available due to technical difficulties associated with the move of CPC/NCEP to the new building.
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Demise of the Asian MonsoonDemise of the Asian Monsoon
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Onset of the Australian MonsoonOnset of the Australian Monsoon
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ClimatologyClimatology
