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The Augmented Reality Retail Hype Cycle 2012

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THE AR RETAIL HYPE CYCLE Matt Szymczyk (Sim-check) Founder & CEO [email protected]
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THE AR RETAIL HYPE CYCLE

Matt Szymczyk (Sim-check)Founder & CEO

[email protected]

We Develop The Webcam Social Shopper

It replicates the ‘at the rack’ moment…

…Online.

“The apparel and accessories category will lead ecommerce sales growth through 2016”

- eMarketer

“The apparel and accessories category will lead ecommerce sales growth through 2016”

- eMarketer

The Company We Keep

Brands

Retailers

DistributionPartners

The Gartner Hype Cycle (July 2011)

Something To Keep In Mind

We’ll be discussing the market viability and scalability of AR technology triggers FOR RETAIL within today’s

marketplace, not 2 years from now, or 5.

AR TRIGGERS1.Digital Living Room2.Out Of Home – In Store Kiosks3.Smartphones4.Tablet5.Web

AR TRIGGERS1.Digital Living Room2.Out Of Home – In Store Kiosks3.Smartphones4.Tablet5.Web

The Digital Living Room For AR Retail

Kinect has shipped over 18 million units worldwide. That's shipped, not sold. (January 2012)

Expectations

Time

The Digital Living Room For AR Retail

No Expectations, No Product

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware Penetration2.Software Access 3.iTV Specs / Asset Costs

No Expectations, No Product

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware Penetration2.Software Access 3.iTV Specs / Asset Costs

**

Tablets For AR Retail

60 Million Tablets Sold In 2011 (Worldwide) - Gartner

Expectations

Time

Tablets For AR Retail

Expectations Increasing

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware Penetration2.Applications Aren’t Native3.Usability (Limited to 1-3 ft exp)4.Consumer Usage Habits

Expectations Increasing

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware Penetration2.Applications Aren’t Native3.Usability (Limited to 1-3 ft exp)4.Consumer Usage Habits

****

Tablets Usage Habits

Tablets Still Suffer From “BSOS”

• The US has the highest rate of tablet usage in the world at just 11% of all consumers. • Tablet usage is dwarfed by PC usage. • In the US, 73% of smartphone-toting consumers also use a laptop or other portable computer, and 57% use a desktop PC. Only 17% of this audience uses a tablet.

Google – “Mobile Internet Smartphone Adoption Insights Report”

Out Of Home / In Store Kiosks For AR Retail

October 2010

Expectations

Time

Out Of Home / In Store Kiosks For AR Retail

Some Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.3D Asset Costs2.3D Camera Realities3.Long Term Consumer Benefits?• Will The Novelty Wear Off?• ROI?

Some Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.3D Asset Costs2.3D Camera Realities3.Long Term Consumer Benefits?• Will The Novelty Wear Off?• ROI?

**

****

Smartphones For AR Retail

472 Million Smartphones Sold In 2011 (Worldwide) - Gartner

Expectations

Time

Smartphones For AR Retail

Huge Market. Huge Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware 2.Market Fragmentation3.Consumer Benefits?• Usability• Reality vs Expectations

Huge Market. Huge Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.Hardware 2.Market Fragmentation3.Consumer Benefits?• Usability• Reality vs Expectations

**

******

A Bit More On The App Ecosystem

People Use Apps For Gaming & Socializing…

…And They Don’t Use Them For Long

Over 1 million Apps Between Apple & Android600k+ Apple / 450k+ Android

A Bit More On M-Commerce

Forrester predicts mobile commerce will account for only 7 percent of all ecommerce sales by 2016 and 1 percent of overall sales.

Forrester Research Report, "Mobile Commerce Forecast: 2011 to 2016"

Web For AR Retail

“Today the industry sells more than 1 million PCs each day and there are 1.5 billion PCs in use worldwide” - Intel

Expectations

Time

Web For AR Retail

Low Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.Married To 2D & Flash2.Consumer’s Hardware Specs3.Perception - Not Seen As Sexy

Low Expectations

CURRENT ISSUES1.Married To 2D & Flash2.Consumer’s Hardware Specs3.Perception - Not Seen As Sexy

**********

If You’re Not Fishing Where The Fish Are…

One Consistent Issue – 3D Assets

3D CAD Models Are Rare In Retail,And Non-Existent For Apparel

Will HTML5 Be A Magic Bullet?

What Can We Do To Get HERE, Faster?

What Can We Do To Get HERE, Faster?

**

It’s Time To Be Productive…

5) Have A Vision & Focus On What You Do Best

It’s A Land Rush, Stake Your Claim.Don’t Get Distracted.

4) Be Honest About Today’s Capabilities

We’re Not A Virtual Fitting Room Because: “Fit” Can’t Be Done In A Way That Meets

Shopper’s Expectations. With A 2D Or Depth Sensing Camera.

3) Collect & Share Data Publicly

… ROI

2) Focus On Solving Real Problems

For Shoppers

And/Or Retailers

1) Sell Today’s Benefits, Not Tomorrow’s “Dreams”

“You could not do AR with a display like this… In one simple fake video, Google has created a level of over-hype and over-expectation that their

hardware cannot possibly live up to… It’s going to generate ideas in people and expectations that just might not match.”

- Blair MacIntyre, Director of the Augmented Environments Lab at Georgia Tech

THANK YOU! [email protected]

@kobrakai


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