ACCESSThe Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

Kamal Puri (ACCESS Group Leader)

ACCESS

OASIS

UM

CICECSIRO OC

UKCACABLE

AusCOM (MOM4)

LPJ

VAR

OPS

BODAS

OBS

Assimilation (?)

NWP

ACCESS modules based on Project Plan recommendations

What we are trying to develop

Consistent with the strategy of seamless prediction

ACCESS

Domains usedDomains used Vertical layersVertical layers

The atmospheric models used at the Met Office for operational NWP and climate modelling (including Regional Climate Modelling) are all derived from the Unified Model (UM) System

ACCESS

Incremental 4D-VarIncremental 4D-Var

NWP model

PF model

yo

Adjoint model

yo yo

NWP model

T-3 T+0 T+3

VAR

DFI

INC

Full fields

Perturbations

Adjoints

Key:

ACCESS

Atmosphere

VAR

OPS Met

Office

NWP component of ACCESS has been fully implemented

This represents a significant milestone

ACCESS NWP implementationACCESS NWP implementation

ACCESS

MSLP verifications over Australian region

Global

Regional

22 May – 31 Dec 1 Jan – 28 Feb

14 Jul – 31 Dec 1 Jan – 8 Mar

ACCESS

Ver anal

Ver anal

ACCESS-R

LAPSACCESS-R

LAPS48h

48h 72h

72h

ACCESS

ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System, AGREPS

ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System, AGREPS

Ensemble prediction has become an essential component in NWP, seasonal prediction and climate/climate change studies

Deterministic systems are not sufficient; it is important to provide information on uncertainty

AGREPS is an Australian implementation of the MetOffice Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS)

Highly relevant for fire-weather prediction

ACCESS

ACCESS DeliverablesSummary

ACCESS DeliverablesSummary

A ‘seamless’ system for applications across all space and time scales ranging from mesoscale NWP to seasonal prediction to climate/climate change studies

An operational NWP system including advanced data assimilation (4DVAR) which allows assimilation of wide range of observations

An Ensemble Prediction System A fully coupled earth system model Regional Climate Modelling capability A comprehensive model evaluation module(s) A comprehensive computing infrastructure to manage the full

system and allow ready use of ACCESS modules

ACCESS

ACCESS and Fire WeatherACCESS and Fire Weather

ACCESS

Modelling Requirements for Fire weather conditions

Modelling Requirements for Fire weather conditions

High resolution observation network High resolution analyses (assimilation) High resolution model including detailed parametrisations particularly for

the PBL Validation of fire-weather related fields Rapid update of analyses/forecasts including ensembles (RUC) Initial analysis of soil moisture (and temperature) and ground vegetation

(fuel) Relevant fire-weather diagnostics from model output - customisation Development of methods to convert/downscale outputs from ACCESS

models (NWP or coupled) to a form that can be used as input to downstream fire-weather models

ACCESS

5AM

11PM4PM

11AM

ACCESS regional 3km

CAWCR WS, Melbourne, 16-19 Feb 2009 – Roberto Buizza: Chaos, ensembles and weather prediction 13

R. Buizza, ECMWF

Extreme heat and windy

Normalconditions

Wet and Cold Still Wet and Cold

Potential ACCESS deliverablePotential ACCESS deliverable

fire alerts

FIREmodel run

Long-termconditions

A high resolution Australian region reanalysis (~25 years) with ACCESS data assimilation would be extremely useful

+HYSPLITAAQFS/CTM……..

Severe weather criteria satisfied?

1. ….2. ….3. ….

Select eventProvide lat/lon

Customised highresolution ACCESS

run

Run downstreammodels

Generatecustomised

products

Customised highresolution ACCESS

EPS run

YES

NO

OperationalACCESS-A

Schematic for a possible ‘on demand’ capability

ACCESS

Concluding commentsConcluding comments

ACCESS has considerable potential for delivering a major component of a fire-weather systemHowever there are key challenges:

Insufficient resources to fully exploit and further develop the system Limitations in Bureau system to receive and process large quantities

from future sounders, radars …. Serious limitations in supercomputing:

– Impose restrictions on model resolutions– Inability to run adequate ensemble systems– Inability to conduct detailed testing of further development of the

system