the balance of exports and imports onions, scenario prices for the first half of 2014 (new)

17 December, 2013

Development forecast of prices in Ukraine at 2014 season (two scenarios). Prospects of evolution market of fresh and chilled onions in Ukraine.

Review export-import activity of countries which

typically produce & consumer the onion.

Area - Total 41,543 km2 (135th) 16,039 sq mi Population - 2014 estimate 16,819,595

Netherlands

Area - Total 603,628 km2 (46th) 233,090 sq mi Population - 2012 estimate 44,854,065

Ukraine

Netherlands 14.5 times less than Ukraine in

area and 2.65 times smaller in population.

List of countries by onion production From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is a list of countries by onion production in 2008 mostly based on FAOSTAT FAO accessed in August 2010. Production by country >400,000 t

Rank Country/RegionOnion production

(tonnes)

1 People's Republic of China 20817295

2 India 8178300

3 United States 3349170

4 Pakistan 2015200

5 Turkey 2007120

6 Iran 1849275

7 Egypt 1728417

8 Russia 1712500

9 Brazil 1299815

10 Mexico 1252441

11 Japan 1165000

12 Netherlands 1130000

13 Spain 1098400

14 Ukraine 1049200

15 South Korea 1035076

16 Bangladesh 889

17 Indonesia 824

18 Myanmar 740

19 Uzbekistan 728

20 Algeria 700

21 Argentina 700

22 Morocco 662

23 Peru 634

24 Nigeria 621

25 Poland 618

26 Germany 408

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Royal_Coat_of_Arms_of_the_Netherlands.svg?uselang=ru

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion

http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/default.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FAO

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Netherlands T 970167 1184508 1222307 1517522 1336441 1245456

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Netherlands T 145050 138300 177061 165614 198846 166412

Reporting Countries Export Statistics (Partner Country: World)

Commodity: 070310, Onions And Shallots, Fresh Or Chilled

Annual Series: 2007 - 2012

Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity



Reporting Countries Import Statistics (Partner Country: World)

Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

• Net exporter. • Increasing trend in exports (6 years). • Stable trend in imports. • Import occupies a niche of seasonal

onion of the next season & fresh crop. • Minimum difference 825 117 t in 2007.

The average export 15 867 т per week. • Maximum difference 1351908 t in 2010.

The average export 26 000 т per week. • Ideal for creating a special system

exporters –operators (many small producers).

• Optimally to build long-term relationships in the chain:

growers - long-term storage - packing - export. • Ideal for long-term relations in the

system of «net packaged weight after the sale“.

• Working model «effective 5 year cycle» with a positive difference of value added relative to the cost of growing.

• The state does not interfere in the domestic market pricing, the political situation is stable, stimulated the growing, production good quality package and export.

Onion import-export in Holland

min

max

Onion export – import in India & China

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

India T 899434 1546801 1830696 1364337 1080584 1619313

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

India T 104 89 444 5594 7111 450



Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity





Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China T 645322 545043 525906 644596 742095 620113

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

China T 651 6117 2405 5043 353 141




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

• India & China net exporters. • Increasing trend in exports (6 years). • Stable trend in imports. Much more area and population then in Holland. • Import occupies a niche offer seasonal onion of the next season & fresh crop (Similarly, as in the

Netherlands.). • A huge population and political motives (consumer basket, inflation, other) make stimulate production in the

amount many times greater than their own consumption. For India in 2013 season possible another picture, but this is an exception to the rules associated with weather factors.

Export Year China

Min diff, t 2009 523501

Max diff, t 2012 741742

Export Year India

Min diff, t 2007 899330

Max diff, t 2009 1830252

Onion import-export in Canada! & South Korea

• Canada & South Korea net importers. • Increasing trend in imports only Canada (6 years).

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Canada T 76169 77979 41598 58774 29963 38735

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Canada T 154773 146366 162281 162039 178332 175595




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

South

Korea T 28463 37339 22727 18848 15590 42479

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

South

Korea T 1462 1 8900 3827 766 947




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

Import Year Canada

Min diff, t 2008 65387

Max diff, t 2010 103265

Import South Korea

Min diff, t 2009 13827

Max diff, t 2012 41532

• Price chart repeats the tendency import graphics in Canada. Information received from http://www.agr.gc.ca • Despite the rather low volume of imports (relative to the domestic production in the country) curves never

intersect.

http://www.agr.gc.ca/



• Net exporter. • It has been a traditional supplier of

onions for Ukraine (and Russia) the last 20 years in certain periods (stable until 2007).

• It has worked as a "gate" for Ukraine and Russia from Europe. Companies imported onion from Holland, changed invoices and sent to Russia and Ukraine as a Polish onion. Very clearly seen in the curves.

• Minimum difference 11424 t in 2010 (year of drought and high prices). • Maximum difference 72392 t in 2009 (before the year of drought, start swinging "pendulum«) . Both the falling trend line. Two reasons: - The country joined the European Union. Manufacturer profitable show "complete" the sale price for the VAT refund. The emergence of the "new gate" - Latvia. - After the 2008 financial crisis, late ,but began to appear large projects for the production of vegetables in Russia and Ukraine. Poland's role began to diminish.

Onion export-import in Poland

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poland T 117844 143818 123295 118969 114988 122166

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poland T 82562 78769 50903 107545 89501 59384

Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




• Net importer. But…. ??? • A trend line is falling rapidly. The last

peak imports fall on arid 2010. • Minimum difference 224420 t in 2012. (I am confident that 2013 will be even less value). • Maximum difference 615486 t in 2007

(Long enough, in 2010 reflected on the curves, but did not change the direction of the trend line.. ).

• Is It possible that some part of the onion pass customs clearance?

Yes. But it's definitely part of it. • Is it possible that invoice prices not

correspond to the real? Sure. But we do not consider the price of Russia. Only trends. • Is this information important for Ukraine? Sure. Ability to export from Russia to Ukraine emerged today. Curves intersect in the future. Perhaps in two years,

may be in three. Opportunities to invest in growing vegetables and construction of storage facilities are available in Russia. Last week information about the new storage in Rostov on 36,000 tons of onions was received three times.

Onion import-export in Russia.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Russia T 225 16269 43150 732 8628 355

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Russia T 615711 457603 370802 576217 456600 224775




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

• Net exporter? Net importer? Who? • The first country in the World, which

makes early prediction of volume production and prices for onions and enables each growers to participate in «casino».

• First look says Ukraine as part of the Soviet Union, which should consume significant amounts of onions. There is an opportunity to grow - grow all those who have money and land.

Onion import/export in Ukraine. 2013* Information should be checked

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*

Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000

Ukraine TOTAL (without forecast)





Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity



Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

Import Year Ukraine

2008 32712

2010 40309

2011 20094Dif

f

Export Year Ukraine

2007 66077

2009 57530

2012 17645

2013 50219

Dif

f

Analysis of export-import activity depending on prices (actual information).

• For curve (next slide), I used information on the average price per month.

• I use the average monthly price for EXW conditions on the mesh-bag 25 kg on pallets from the grower (packer) in the Kherson region.

• My goal - to determine the law of price changes, compared with the dynamics of export-import, build a forecast for the next six months (a year).

• Prior to the 2007 season - as a rule sold domestic production onion until February, since February - import onions. Import quality is always higher then Ukrainian quality . Since 2007 - the «pendulum» begins to swing.

• Price of the last three months created is artificially. No objective reasons for a higher price than in the 2010 season (drought), except for one - greed.

• I propose to consider two scenarios (9 and 10), which depend on the actual volume of onion in long-term storage.

Onion years average price in Ukraine actual/import-export activity.

Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec UAH/kg

2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16

2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00

2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72

2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88

2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67

2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42

2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65

2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83

2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 5,80 3,17

the highest price in the world (last season - the lowest)

Forecast onions prices to 2014 (1 scenario, total deficit).

2014* FORECAST

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781 36000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*

Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000 72000

Ukraine TOTAL (First scenario)




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity


2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16

2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00

2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72

2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88

2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67

2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42

2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65

2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83

2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 6,30 3,22

2014 7,00 8,00 9,00 9,00 10,00 11,00 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 5,00

• Price continues to grow from month to month in all countries. Inventories are very small. The price of imported onion does not regulate the price of the domestic market. The situation is worse than the drought of 2010. Be able to import «only» 20,000 tons at the beginning of the year.

• Growing onion become even more attractive business for «smart» people and in season 2014 ALL begin to grow onions. • By year end, the lowest price will provide an opportunity to export up to 72,000 tons (if there are means to collect and pack).

Government is happy - back low prices, exports are growing, the budget is filled. • Probability of this scenario (my opinion) - not more than 20%. If in January will be prolonged frosts over - 12-15⁰ Celsius - the

probability will rise considerably. (or India buy a large amount of onions in Europe?). • Very favorable for companies that sell seeds.

Forecast onions prices to 2014 (2 scenario, postponed proposal).

2014* FORECAST

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*

Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382 781 30000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014*

Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027 51000 30000




Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity

Ukraine TOTAL (second scenario)


Reporting

Country Unit

Quantity




2005 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1,00 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,16

2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,20 1,19 1,18 1,12 2,00

2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,60 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,72

2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,88

2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,90 1,67

2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4,00 4,42

2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,50 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,20 1,01 3,65

2012 0,65 0,65 0,40 0,45 0,65 1,20 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 0,83

2013 1,00 1,00 1,64 1,74 4,00 4,00 5,40 2,00 3,50 4,00 4,00 6,30 3,22

2014 5,00 4,80 4,80 5,00 5,20 5,60 1,40 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,80 3,03

• Volumes in the storage onion underestimated. Highest price in December and January. • February, March and April - the price decreases (the first signs have already appeared). • With the increasing cost of storing the most profitable for growers are December and January.

• Sell need right now. • Despite the expected price decline attention to the onions grow anyway and ..... repeated in 2012. Low prices. • Long live EXPORT! • Probability of this scenario (my opinion) - more than 80%. If you enter the market with a great offer - the price can quickly

collapse. If it does not make "Green Team" - someone else will do. • Again it is very favorable for companies that sell seeds. • If you add the growth of the dollar - the profit decline at all and about 8.3 UAH \ 1 USD will remain a sweet memory.

Basic results of the analysis of import and export activity in Ukraine 2007-2013 year

• In any case, the completion in 2014 - growth of volume growing, no fixed role of Ukraine (net exporter or a net importer) and ... very low prices (repeat of the 2012 season) with an increase in administrative pressure before the elections in 2015.

• Substantial cash loss will come next year for all participants onion market (growers, storage, packers, wholesalers, retailers) due to constant pressure on the price and the low base for gross profit.

• The impact of political factors on the export market (the EU ore Customs Union), opening date "export window».

• Slow concentration in production will occur in the most efficient producers, who can get the highest yield at a relatively high quality ( & low cost).

Canadian «surprise»

• Net importer Canada - a big surprise for me! Leading the search for onion harvesting system with "green neck" for long-term storage, I stumbled to the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_tuNHqxWg &

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbUSkF91Rkw (I highly recommend to look!). • I do not believe that Canadian farmers can not grow (and store) the amount of onions, sufficient (or excess)

for their own consumption. • I do not have contacts in Canada, I do not know specifics of its policy of the Agrarian Ministry and the specific

price formation in the market. At the moment I can not get reliable information on these matters. • My assumption - after a sharp decline in average prices in 2008 (twice - not four times, as in Ukraine) certain

system actions allowed Canada to regulate the production for the domestic market and increase the average annual price. Past four years, the price became stable and sufficient to provide added value for growers (warehousing, packers). Consumption deficit is compensated by imports.

• This issue requires further in-depth study.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_tuNHqxWg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80_tuNHqxWg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbUSkF91Rkw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbUSkF91Rkw

Probable strategic development of the company as a growers of onions in Ukraine.

• Cost of growing (onion lies in store) • 1 - the average cost in the south of

Ukraine (including drip irrigation) • 2 - average cost efficient economy in

the south of Ukraine (including drip irrigation)

• 3 - for the cost of the necessary value added (there are examples in the central part of Ukraine on the upper watering).

• Stable operation for at least 5 years with a constant accumulation of positive experiences and decrease the cost of growing - the path to a successful enterprise.

• «Dutch scenario» (consolidation of uniform packaged products and successful sale) can not be implemented in Ukraine (undefined role - the importer or exporter?).

• Only its own efficient farm with full process and cost management can fill their own long-term storage and will be able to generate added value.

• In any other case - growers will dictate pricing conditions in the domestic market. Domestic market price determines the possibilities for export activity.

• Reduced consumer ability, political games, conservative way of mind does not allow retailers to fully realize the concept of quality Q1, Q2, Q3.

• Concentration production in a limited range of efficient farms use control mechanisms growing volumes (Canada Way?) - possibility of strategic development onion market.

Analysis of the annual average contribution margin, depending on the source model (using ISO curves onion 2013-2014, annex 3)

100,5% 38,0%

• Contribution margin 38% - (See Annex 4) - quite risky to achieve strategic results for the period of 5-8 years

• Contribution margin 100,5% - (See Annex 5) - the most successful way to develop a profitable enterprise in the future the next 5-8 years

Additional information

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Reporting Total T 6795082 6366322

Netherlands T 970167 1184508 1222307 1517522 1336441 1245456

India T 899434 1546801 1830696 1364337 1080584 1619313

China T 645322 545043 525906 644596 742095 620113

Egypt T 201235 247025 235151 512467 490922 361468

Mexico T 288473 279989 311549 327432 370135 374710

United States T 291876 320837 283208 360830 355905 332167

Spain (Customs) T 253981 267752 274450 224023 259032 255964

Argentina T 217202 202597 189598 240931 210956 146889

Peru T 86130 71748 100449 165180 177432 161133

New Zealand T 188322 164534 129456 177629 132649 164770

Turkey T 180058 213692 135521 95341 121576 140469

Poland T 117844 143818 123295 118969 114988 122166

France (Customs) T 64684 83926 83820 112302 110020 99752

Germany (Customs) T 68484 78081 81094 102621 86858 82599

Chile T 67357 88727 34216 83979 85993 36364

Iran T 83053 66614 131040 71969 152216

Thailand T 77637 60634 42947 48945 70552 43884

Austria (Customs) T 41817 37562 52128 44609 61341 73751

Australia T 50248 46601 51137 48333 58985 61968

Belgium T 56102 42133 53756 40542 50988 35968

Italy Istat T 40598 40132 36714 45201 45408 51736

South Africa T 36031 31392 24855 35347 44031 78187

Malaysia T 66926 76415 64392 46425 31479 33236

Canada T 76169 77979 41598 58774 29963 38735

Ecuador T 45395 53369 31206 18243 26881 17917

Kazakhstan T 86503 46811 50458 97960 21585 57891

Guatemala T 28228 25568 22630 17925 17811 27027

Denmark T 9410 7836 12329 13398 16575 10726

Brazil T 37681 6032 374 1213 14079 278

Philippines T 11758 6844 6584 7860 14010 5825

Indonesia T 9637 12704 12843 3261 13827 19126

United Kingdom HMRC T 11892 7016 6864 9875 9670 10116

Czech Republic T 6958 8631 8339 9633 9610 9891

Lithuania T 5137 7843 5247 6216 9365 9568

Russia T 225 16269 43150 732 8628 355

Azerbaijan T 8793 15449 6052 1092 5758 1811

Serbia T 2843 3263 7195 4455 5374 7377

Morocco T 2257 1719 1109 6243 3878 7001

Greece T 4670 2268 1323 3311 3621 1375

Hungary T 2474 2838 1351 2081 3412 3710

Nicaragua T 1300 1785 2767 3608 3190 1899

Algeria T 1324 2471 2784 2377 3051 1885

Portugal T 1586 3004 1193 2153 2844 3313

Singapore T 2984 1753 2131 4428 2782 3582

Slovenia T 3101 1649 1638 2246 2611 3072

Latvia T 498 270 1318 1683 2587 1792

Taiwan T 219 420 510 744 2532 200

Ukraine T 66159 2117 68213 1516 2489 19027

Jordan T 710 2482 1060 2235 2418 2702

Belarus T 3406 3756 551 2359 1414

Romania T 232 690 2083 2094 1903 1559

Ghana T 2805 1867 312

Honduras T 622 987 1141 1039 1822 576

Cote d'Ivoire T 6 63 140 4415 1467 1196

Kenya T 16288 227 357 703 828 1757

Croatia (Customs) T 972 668 645 1261 801 256

South Korea T 1462 1 8900 3827 766 947

Senegal T 89 330 250 165 710 881

Slovakia T 1521 582 188 723 677 1205

Ireland (Customs) T 6993 6943 662 1184 669 632

Uruguay T 532 58 157 735 654 1406

Hong Kong T 1168 1028 1258 714 537 409

Sweden T 1001 358 305 321 474 247

Colombia T 1626 1328 703 881 395 360

Luxembourg T 108 114 150 305 327 156

Bulgaria T 123 276 187 322 326 225

Sri Lanka T 199 7 13 60 290 44

Costa Rica T 3872 1244 1961 257 267 390

Estonia T 2 3 53 27 121 35

Panama T 0 0 0 0 78 0

Norway T 517 81 23 120 40 44

El Salvador T 0 0 10 0 25 0

Finland T 6 116 1 13 24 56

Japan T 3179 2772 1160 74 4 62

Switzerland T 53 3 1 581 1 25

Iceland T 1 2 3 1 1 1

Georgia T 4 1 1

Venezuela T 277 214 2 1 0 1

Vietnam T 0 0 0

Cyprus T 0 1 2 0 0 0

Bolivia T 72 14 26 23 0 0

Israel T 0 0 0 0

Malta T 0 2 0 0 0 0

Mauritius T 20 0 38 14 0 2




Reporting Country Unit

Quantity2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Reporting Total

Malaysia T 405401 404874 458543 465716 452504 441980

Russia T 615711 457603 370802 576217 456600 224775

United Kingdom HMRC T 372630 378829 358928 365472 362208 342132

United States T 409357 323937 309151 394225 394129 385300

Germany (Customs) T 239473 261959 248943 276230 268564 240682

Japan T 228644 184663 207976 339915 373500 342710

Brazil T 157153 200658 178233 238490 195172 179514

Netherlands T 145050 138300 177061 165614 198846 166412

Canada T 154773 146366 162281 162039 178332 175595

Sri Lanka T 164508 173663 159477 170072 177619 152929

Belgium T 151413 145890 144964 121121 127826 128897

France (Customs) T 134887 138857 111907 106086 102112 115538

Senegal T 95608 95699 103999 104127 125764 123350

Indonesia T 133098 166913 101191 125816 235119 155361

Italy Istat T 72719 76867 77103 71096 66146 67925

Spain (Customs) T 60565 70653 73322 58862 55136 53070

Cote d'Ivoire T 33626 35372 72260 67354 68982 108462

Colombia T 44713 71826 66782 106155 128234 110996

Thailand T 31294 60904 65683 64049 78827 86420

Ecuador T 4404 36830 64697 53854 42011 28132

Czech Republic T 61331 56809 59536 60564 59208 54517

Mexico T 63305 95447 54265 56775 33851 34543

Poland T 82562 78769 50903 107545 89501 59384

Singapore T 45170 47302 50684 55083 54175 57738

Taiwan T 45097 38399 46674 48388 36976 66905

Portugal T 47036 46832 41746 53164 56228 47293

Ireland (Customs) T 42889 52637 37021 40323 39156 33870

Jordan T 28038 36159 32073 37002 36139 36748

El Salvador T 28484 28824 29766 27022 30392 29678

Sweden T 33964 24812 26765 31899 33325 34156

Austria (Customs) T 21818 25095 23965 25569 20133 15569

South Korea T 28463 37339 22727 18848 15590 42479

Romania T 37537 34475 22173 35854 45665 39204

Kazakhstan T 1443 8715 19487 31579 57278 59068

Hong Kong T 7361 6281 18901 6704 7126 20473

Hungary T 17833 13170 18213 15909 14584 10854

Guatemala T 11244 11448 16654 28288 21131 31923

Slovakia T 17870 19604 16558 18473 24157 17540

Nicaragua T 14553 12131 15764 18781 16800 17665

Paraguay T 14778 11833 15566 18314 18636 21490

Bulgaria T 29810 26217 14848 17864 18357 18613

Croatia (Customs) T 13896 15725 14214 14031 15328 12273

Slovenia T 14971 14489 13873 13886 13176 13244

Mauritius T 11629 10993 12840 11345 11573 9505

Azerbaijan T 9103 353 12814 16243 5210 2199

Iran T 0 12757 8091 1153 16

Greece T 17157 17555 12695 12821 15456 3915

Honduras T 9038 10981 11789 12770 8433 9707

Denmark T 12788 11574 11280 16156 15662 13033

Lithuania T 12220 15372 11276 14717 16614 13978

Ukraine T 82 34829 10683 41825 22583 1382

Philippines T 3049 66243 10051 10824 4978 18443

Australia T 10279 10816 9016 13226 13115 7822

Chile T 15871 761 7847 4556 1543 5024

Uruguay NO 0 10620 7813 1400 0 0

Estonia T 5756 5313 7561 7400 6382 6303

Finland T 6235 5773 7373 6061 9256 11421

Latvia T 5141 6369 6483 8616 7933 8830

Norway T 7788 9040 6281 10688 9302 11095

Panama T 3275 5612 5589 9407 8370 11915

Costa Rica T 1178 3510 5051 5658 5101 3062

Switzerland T 7264 8121 4769 4256 4704 3052

Algeria T 392 550 3264 1521 106 203

Luxembourg T 1591 2926 3134 3640 3401 3120

Belarus T 4733 3103 8317 7546 5367

Kenya T 2579 5223 2963 4756 4492 7715

Cyprus T 1104 1797 2438 3820 4549 4392

China T 651 6117 2405 5043 353 141

Serbia T 5480 8948 2311 10237 4462 3792

Morocco T 7 20 2142 18 38 27

Iceland T 1533 1581 1625 1625 1710 1865

Bolivia T 21 0 1082 310 1662 1131

Malta T 982 945 761 551 692 1047

Turkey T 642 279 619 443 7548 365

South Africa T 397 720 598 530 1337 1687

New Zealand T 585 1073 526 514 1807 572

India T 104 89 444 5594 7111 450

Uruguay T 1010 3857 328 3157 5413 428

Argentina T 30384 12319 236 712 14254 79

Egypt T 0 40 77 3 221 0

Nigeria T 8 6 25 83 101 14

Venezuela T 0 0 0 282 5849 250

Vietnam T 0 0 0

Peru T 0 0 0 0 0 0

Israel T 0 0 0 0

Georgia T 30047 22095 18634

Ghana T 4549803,00 4598233,00 4377728,00 51009 75306 72146




Reporting Country Unit

Quantity

Info

rmat

ion

fro

m s

ites

ww

w.f

ao.o

rg &

ww

w.c

om

trad

e.u

n.o

rg

Аnnex 1

http://www.fao.org/

http://www.comtrade.un.org/

Prices in Canada, FOB USD $/ctn.50 lbs Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2007 15,75 20,25 20,25 20,25 20,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 7,75 7,75

2008 7,75 7,00 6,25 6,25 6,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

2009 10,50 10,50 10,50 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 10,25 10,25

2010 15,25 15,25 15,25 15,25 15,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 17,25 17,25 17,25

2011 15,50 15,75 15,25 13,75 12,50 12,25 0,00 0,00 0,00 12,75 12,25 11,75

2012 11,75 11,50 10,75 11,75 12,25 23,75 0,00 0,00 11,00 11,00 11,25 12,75

2013 18,25 20,50 18,50 18,50 13,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 13,00 13,25 15,00

Аnnex 2

- 19 -

Onion ISO curves (Calculation CM per 1 kg)

Business Plan 2013/14

UAH excl VAT per 1 kg Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Sales Price 1,81 1,86 1,99 1,86 1,93 2,14 2,61 2,75 3,03 3,40 3,95

Soursing price 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79 0,79

Stor. And Proc Losses 0,15 0,14 0,14 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15

Procesing Cost 0,36 0,34 0,35 0,39 0,44 0,51 0,59 0,71 0,79 0,68 0,65

CM UAH 0,51 0,58 0,70 0,53 0,56 0,70 1,08 1,11 1,30 1,79 2,37

Аnnex 3

Self cost

Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Everage Uah/kg

(growing cost

480 UAH/t)

2005 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2006 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2007 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2008 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2009 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2010 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2011 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2012 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2013 1,48 1,88 2,28 2,68 3,08 2 1,7 0,48 0,48 0,58 0,88 1,18 2,0778

2014 -

EXW


sales EXW

2005 1 1 1 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,8856

2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,2 1,19 1,18 1,12 1,9975

2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,6 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,7208

2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,8808

2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,9 1,6758

2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4 4,4167

2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,5 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,2 1,01 3,6475

2012 0,65 0,65 0,4 0,45 0,65 1,2 1,4 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,8 0,8283

2013 1 1 1,64 1,74 4 4 5,4 2 3,5 4 4 6,3 3,2150

2014 -

CM

Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Everage CM %

(growing cost

480 UAH/t)

2005 -32% -47% -56% -41% -41% 31% -14% 108% 96% 110% 81% 48% 20%

2006 24% 14% 4% -16% -8% 121% 19% 194% 150% 105% 34% -5% 53%

2007 -28% -36% -39% -49% -45% 38% 98% 233% 183% 133% 69% 70% 52%

2008 114% 85% 57% 65% 52% 102% 96% 346% 238% 160% 61% 1% 115%

2009 -22% -37% -50% -63% -68% -44% -6% 242% 294% 355% 226% 146% 81%

2010 119% 112% 98% 133% 130% 236% 81% 523% 646% 583% 313% 239% 268%

2011 205% 186% 143% 130% 143% 275% 6% 131% 110% 81% 36% -14% 119%

2012 -56% -65% -82% -83% -79% -40% -18% 188% 81% 28% -15% -32% -15%

2013 -32% -47% -28% -35% 30% 100% 218% 317% 629% 590% 355% 434% 211%

2014 -

Аnnex 4

Self cost

Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Everage Uah/kg

(contract

growing on the

basis at ISO

curves (Annex

3)

2005 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2006 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2007 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2008 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2009 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2010 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2011 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2012 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2013 1,95 2,35 2,75 3,15 3,55 2 1,7 0,95 0,95 1,05 1,35 1,65 2,6000

2014 -

EXW


2005 1 1 1 1,57 1,82 2,62 1,46 1 0,94 1,22 1,59 1,75 1,8856

2006 1,83 2,14 2,37 2,26 2,83 4,41 2,03 1,41 1,2 1,19 1,18 1,12 1,9975

2007 1,06 1,21 1,39 1,38 1,68 2,75 3,37 1,6 1,36 1,35 1,49 2,01 1,7208

2008 3,17 3,47 3,59 4,42 4,67 4,03 3,34 2,14 1,62 1,51 1,42 1,19 2,8808

2009 1,16 1,19 1,13 0,99 0,99 1,12 1,59 1,64 1,89 2,64 2,87 2,9 1,6758

2010 3,24 3,98 4,52 6,24 7,08 6,71 3,07 2,99 3,58 3,96 3,63 4 4,4167

2011 4,52 5,37 5,55 6,17 7,47 7,5 1,81 1,11 1,01 1,05 1,2 1,01 3,6475

2012 0,65 0,65 0,4 0,45 0,65 1,2 1,4 1,38 0,87 0,74 0,75 0,8 0,8283

2013 1 1 1,64 1,74 4 4 5,4 2 3,5 4 4 6,3 3,2150

2014 -

CM

Onion Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Everage %CM

(contract

growing cost 780

UAH/t on the

basis at ISO

curves Annex 3)

2005 -49% -57% -64% -50% -49% 31% -14% 5% -1% 16% 18% 6% -17%

2006 -6% -9% -14% -28% -20% 121% 19% 48% 26% 13% -13% -32% 9%

2007 -46% -49% -49% -56% -53% 38% 98% 68% 43% 29% 10% 22% 5%

2008 63% 48% 31% 40% 32% 102% 96% 125% 71% 44% 5% -28% 52%

2009 -41% -49% -59% -69% -72% -44% -6% 73% 99% 151% 113% 76% 14%

2010 66% 69% 64% 98% 99% 236% 81% 215% 277% 277% 169% 142% 149%

2011 132% 129% 102% 96% 110% 275% 6% 17% 6% 0% -11% -39% 69%

2012 -67% -72% -85% -86% -82% -40% -18% 45% -8% -30% -44% -52% -45%

2013 -49% -57% -40% -45% 13% 100% 218% 111% 268% 281% 196% 282% 106%

Аnnex 5

Fruit and Vegetable

Markets in Europe FRUITS & VEGETABLES OF UKRAINE 2013

26./27. NOVEMBER, KIEW

HANS-CHRISTOPH BEHR, AMI, BONN

Аnnex 6

About AMI

Agrarmarkt Informations-GmbH (AMI)

was founded in June 2009 after

the forced close down of ZMP, a

semi-public body financed by a

grower levy. Shareholders are

agricultural publishing houses and

agricultural associations.

In Bonn – the Headquarters – and in

two offices in Hamburg and Berlin

about 40 employees work for AMI.

AMI operates independently to supply

comprehensive and up-to-date

information and analyses for all

segments of agribusiness.

Horticulture (Fruit and Vegetables)

is one of the major departments.

23 European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.

24

2,0%

1,2%

1,0%

0,9%

0,7%

0,5%

-0,7%

-1,3%

-1,4%

-1,9%

-3,2%

Courgette

Onions

Mushrooms

Asparagus

Cucumbers

Tomatoes

Carrots

Cauliflower

Lettuce

Cabbage

Green Beans

Vegetable production in the EU (2003-

2012) Growth rate in % p.a. (lin. Trend)

Source: AMI-Analysis on Basis of national Statistics

Vegetables total:

-0,7%p.a.

European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013. 26.11.2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mio. t

other Veg.

Pepper

Cabbage

Carrots

Onions

Tomatoes

EU-27

EU fresh vegetable exports to third

countries

25

Source: Eurostat

EU-25

Third Country Exports are

approx. 13 % of Total Exports


233 299 297 471 473 525 498 461 450

295 217 254

432 372 270 309 331 255 160 167 181

192 197

185 187 181 175

99 132 150

202 218

224 213 220 215 336

404 450

546 552 619 578 570 615

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012v

1000 t

Other

Pepper

Green Beans

Onions

Tomatoes

EU-27

26

Source: Eurostat

EU-25

Third Country Imports are

approx. 15 % of total imports

EU Vegetable imports from third countries (Third country imports stagnate at best, onion imports decreasing…)


27 26.11.2013 European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.

11,8 16,19,0

15,1 15,0 19,0 18,6 23,8

14,912,0

7,3

15,7 11,113,0

6,5

11,4 10,1

8,6

11,113,1

6,0 12,0

5,6 10,1

6,9

8,85,6

7,9 8,5

8,16,7

9,0

7,8

6,4

7,016,0

7,57,0 7,86,1

50,743,9

61,6

42,8 43,6 46,3 45,1 42,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

UK D NL B A F I E

%

Fresh Vegetables*: Share of Top 5 in total quantity bought

Other

Courgette

Lettuces

Belgian Endive

Caulif lower

Pepper

Mushrooms

Cucumbers

Onions

Carrots

Tomatoes

Sources: Kantar Worldpanel, GfK, AMI * without Potatoes, and without Melons , incl. Convenience

Onions

European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013. 26.11.2013 28

4463 3910 3719

4049 4165 4374 4157

5006 4504

4209

1456

1147 1067

1154 1073 1127

973

1120

1040 1027

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f

1000 t

NMS

EU-15

- 6 % mах

min

Attention! MAX DIFF 1 340 000 t at EU 27

Onion Production in the EU 27

29

Source: National Statistics, Producer Associations, Euronion, AMI

26.11.2013 European Fruit and Vegetable Markets © AMI 11/2013.

Why only – 6 %?

Planted area did not remain constant !


8,3%

5,4%

5,0%

4,3%

3,6%

3,6%

3,5%

3,1%

1,8%

-0,5%

-2,0%

-9,9%

Poland

France

Norway

Spain

Germany

Netherlands (sown)

Lituania

Hungary

Austria

UK

Italy

Denmark

change in the area

up to 25% in Ukraine

Onions: Change of planted Area

Source: AMI-Analysis on Basis of national Statistics or Estimations

2013 vs. 2012 in %


32

Onion Production in Europe (1.000 t)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013f

EU-15 4.374 4.157 5.006 4.504 4.209

of which

NL (Handelsprod.) 1.070 1.000 1.220 1.175 1.040

Spain 1.234 1.105 1.308 1.190 1.202

Germany 433 387 506 485 431

France 356 330 409 325 319

UK 398 388 492 393 360

Denmark 59 57 72 64 57

Austria 135 149 195 130 123

NMS 1.127 973 1.120 1.040 1.027

of which

Poland 708 578 677 642 611

Czech Republic 39 35 54 32 37

Romania 235 233 244 222 246

Hungary 54 40 60 60 58

EU-27 5.500 5.131 6.126 5.544 5.236

Scource: Producers Associations, Interfel, Nat. Statistics, Euronion


Ma

x d

iff

1M

IO t

7 2 4 5 5 5 5 9

79 78

83 85

35 25 25

60

14 20

13 10

60 70 70

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 ' 10 11 12 13

%

70mm+

40-70 mm

< 40 mm

Estimated Size distribution of onions

33

Source: Euronion

Germany Poland


0,00

5,00

10,00

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

35,00

40,00

45,00

28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 44. 46. 48. 50.

EUR/100kg Av. 2009-11 2012 2013

Price of Dutch onions, ex packing House,

40/60-50/70mm, Cl. II

34

Source: HPA/AMI week

26.11.2013

Tasmania: Early Plantings were possible,

great gap afterwards, low yields small sizes

South Africa: Late Plantings (2-3 weeks late),

low sizes, strong domestic market. (Angola!)

United States -4 %, Storage -2 %, Canada

very mixed results, but not full potential

Argentina: High priced currency makes

exports to Europe difficult, area unchanged,

slightly behind schedule

What do we know of other countries?


Japan (Hokkaido): Like in Europe, late

harvest, small sizes !

What do we know of other countries?

36

Brazil: Abundant supply likely to continue

until January, because Normal crops in the

South will be marketed later, due to low

prices now. Imports expected to start later.

New Zealand: Area rather stable (-1 %) late

but normal development of crops.


37

Thanks for attention!

Potapov Sergii , phone +380504471939 e-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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the balance of exports and imports onions, scenario prices for the first half of 2014 (new)

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