THE BANGLADESH DELTA PLANWAGENINGEN, 12-12-2019
WILLIAM OLIEMANS - DELTARES
‘THE BEST GIFT FOR THE FUTURE GENERATIONS BY THE PRESENT GENERATION’
CONTENTS
• The Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100
• Context and challenges
• From planning to implementation
Knowledge for resilient development?
To start: salient features
Population 169 million (2015), Area: 147 570 km2
Average GDP growth 2010 – 2015: 6,5 % per year. Agriculture: 15.1%, Industry: 26.5%, Services: 58.3% (2014 est.)
Ambition: to become a (lower) middle income country by 2021 and developed country by 2041
Delta country: 30% <5 m, 45% from 5-30m and 25% >30m
Main Delta Water Issues: Flooding, Drought, Erosion & Sedimentation, Water Quality, Environment and Sustainable Governance
• Flood▪ 1987/ 1988/ 1998/ 2004 ▪ 2000 (Jessore-Khulna region)▪ 2007 (North West region)
• Drought• Water logging or drainage
congestion• River erosion and Coastal erosion• Cyclones/storm surge induced
flood• Salinity intrusion• Groundwater degradation• Land subsidence• Climate change
▪ Sea Level Rise (SLR)▪ Temperature rise
• Transboundary issues
Water Management Issues
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
Wilson and Goodbred, 2016
BANGLADESH DELTA PLAN 2100
BDP 2100 Approach & Process
Key challenges
Prof. Dr. Jaap de Heer, Team Leader
William Oliemans, Water Resources
বাাংলাদেশ ডেল&টা প্ল্যান ২১০০
The need for a Delta Plan?
To achieve its development goals, the country must balance its available resources and plan against growing uncertainties:
• Urbanization & population growth
• Upstream developments
• Climate change (sea level rise, flooding and droughts)
• Land subsidence & environmental degradation
A ‘new’ type of planning is needed for the Delta Plan that can deal with these uncertainties
Uncertainties: Population, Climate Change
Uncertainties: Upstream Developments, Subsidence
BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE
• Need for a holistic and integrated approachfor Water Resources Management
• Identification of challenges, definition ofstrategies, scenario-analysis, investmentstrategies and governance
• Short, medium and long term goals
• Adaptive approach to deal better withuncertainties
KEY FEATURES (1)• Mix of Dutch Delta Approach and
Bangladesh approach• Extensive consultation at Hot Spot and
District level
KEY FEATURES (2)• Mix of strategies and investment priorities, in a 4-year project,
including a long term vision and deliverables for the 5-year plan
• Teams; A, B and C. Bangladesh and Dutch governmentagencies, consultants and institutes
Strategies Developed at 3 Scales:
❑National Strategies:❑Flood Risk Management❑Freshwater Supply❑Thematic Strategies▪Agriculture, Food Security, Nutrition and Livelihoods▪Transboundary Water Management▪Water Supply, Sanitation & Waste Management▪Environment, Ecology & Biodiversity▪Dynamizing Inland Water Transport System▪Sustainable Land Use and Spatial Planning▪Advancing the Blue Economy▪Renewable Energy▪Earthquakes
❑6 Hotspot Strategies▪Coastal Zone▪Barind and Drought Prone Areas▪Haor and Flash Flood Areas▪Chattogram Hill Tracts▪River Systems and Estuaries▪Urban Areas
From strategies to programsand projects
❖BDP 2100 Investment Plan consists of 80projects to be implemented by 2030:▪65 physical projects; ▪15 institutional & knowledge development projects. ❖Total capital investment cost: BDT2,938billion ($37.50 billion).❖Development of the Investment Plan:following the principles of ADM
Implementation - coordination challenge
Framework: NWPo – NWMP – ICZMP – Water Act – FYP – BDP2100 …
Rural Infrastruc
ture
Water Supply
Fisheries
Agri-culture
Water Resources
Integrated planning
LGI
DPHE
DoF
BADC/ DAE/
BMDA
BWDB
Sectoralimplementation
? ?
Monitoring –integraten challenges
Adaptation pathway – water quantity
Strategic objective:
Priority water needs should be met, whilst maintaining sustainable groundwater abstraction
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CHALLENGES FOR THE KNOWLEDGE COMMUNITY• From sector-driven development to integrated development; new knowledge• Co-creation: share knowledge and approaches but learn to adapt, include NGOs, business
and government in ACTION RESEARCH• Focus on adaptation for resilience and development; research solutions and problems• Growing with sediment and salinity
flood extentresource
availability
+
other
pressures
violent
extremism
income
jihadist
influence
+
-
criminal
economy-
+
insecurity
lack of state
+
+
+
+
+-
migration- +
traditional
resource
management
-
climate
?
water abstraction
and regulation
-
over-
explotation-
+
++
Joint Cooperation Programme Bangladesh – The Netherlands
JCP Objectives
• Carry out a long-term knowledge sharing and capacity building program between Bangladesh and Netherlands institutes in the water sector
• With the aim to:• Increase the knowledge base of the institutes
• Strengthen the capacity in Bangladesh to plan, develop and manage (marine and fresh) water resources systems. Capacities include water system knowledge, data management, decision-support modelling, cooperation and collaboration
• Contribute to the BDP2100 Knowledge Agenda
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http://202.53.173.179/delta/
www.plancomm.gov.bd