The Best Countries for Long

7/31/2019 The Best Countries for Long

1/13

The Best Countries for Long-Term Growth

Economic Growth Through 2050

Worries over the European debt crisis, a slow recovery in the U.S. and fears over a"hard landing" for Chinas economy have left global investors searching for new

markets for their money. For long-term investors that means identifying economiesthat have strong growth prospects driven by advantages such as demographics,

natural resources or geography.

The following is a list of the 10 countries with the best prospects for long-term growth.It's based on a report from HSBC titled "The World in 2050," which forecasts what

the economic landscape will look like over the next 40 years. Some of the economies

are already known as economic powerhouses, while others may come as a surprise.

The ranking includes some of the world's fastest-growing economies as well asthose that will have the largest gross domestic product in absolute size by 2050.

Excluded are economies that are projected to be less than $400 billion in GDP by2050. The 2010 and projected 2050 GDP numbers are from the HSBC report and

are based on constant U.S. dollar exchange rate in 2000. We calculated the annualaverage growth rates over the 40-year period based on figures in the report.

Click ahead to find out which countries offer investors the best growth prospects inthe next few decades.


2/13

By Ansuya HarjaniPosted 15 Feb 2012

10. Algeria

Projected annual growth: 5%2010 GDP: $76 billion*

2050 projected GDP: $538 billion

Algeria, endowed with Africasthird-largest proven oil reserves,is one of therichest countries on the continent, and its wealth appears likely to grow further in the

coming decades.

Oil reserves of 12 billion barrels have played a key role in luring foreign energycompanies, including Anadarko and A.P. Moller-Maersk to the country. Petroleum

products, the backbone of the economy, account for 95 percent of Algerias exports,according to the International Monetary Fund.

Revenues from its commodities exports have allowed Algerias government toaccumulate large savings in an oil stabilization fund, estimated to be worth$55billion,which helped shield the economy from the fall in energy prices in 2009.
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/algeria/index.htmlhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/algeria/index.htmlhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/algeria/index.htmlhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/algeria/index.htmlhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=938011478&Country=Algeria&topic=Risk&subtopic=Credit+risk&subsubtopic=Sovereign+riskhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/algeria/index.html


3/13

An acceleration of household consumption and government fiscal expansion hasalso helped to boost growth in recent years. In 2009, President Abdelaziz Bouteflikaannounced a five-year plan toincrease government spendingfrom $120 billion to

$150 billion to improve national infrastructure, create 3 million jobs, and build 1

million new homes.

Although the country has favorable demographics on its side with more than halfthe population under age 35 the country faces high levels of youth unemployment.Over 20 percent of those in the 16-24 age bracket are unemployed, and Algeria has

seen several protests during last years Arab Spring.

* Based on 2000 U.S. dollars

9. China

Projected annual growth: 5.1%2010 GDP: $3.511 trillion*

2050 projected GDP: $25.334 trillion

It may be no surprise that China, the current engine of global growth, is set to be oneof the fastest growing economies over the next four decades. But what is noteworthyis that the size of mainland economy, which is currently one-third that of the United

States, is expected to grow more than seven-fold to overtake the U.S. by 2050.

It is no wonder that foreign companies across all sectors are flocking to China to setup shop and capitalize on its growth. The country is a leading recipient of foreign
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/8005.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/8005.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/8005.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/8005.htm


4/13

direct investment, receiving$116 billion in 2011, according to Chinas CommerceMinistry.

Growing wealth among Chinese firms has also led to an increasing amount of

outward foreign direct investment increasing the countrys influence on the worldeconomy. In 2011 alone, China invested in 1,392 overseas projects in 132 countries,

totaling$332 billion .

Dubbed the worlds factory, Chinas economy has been largely fueled by its exportsector. However, the countrys latest five-year plan aims to shift the economys focusto the development of its internal market. One way it plans to do so is by increasing

the spending power of its 1.36 billion population by spurring job creation andimplementing minimum-wage requirements. The government recently pledged to

raise minimum wages by13 percent a yearthrough 2015 and launch measures togenerate 45 million new jobs.


8. Egypt

Projected annual growth: 5.1%2010 GDP: $160 billion*


Egypt, the Arab world's second largest economy and most populous nation, is a hubfor trade routes between Africa, Europe, and Asia due to its strategic location.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46033205/http://www.cnbc.com/id/46033205/http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/china-economy-investment-idUSL3E8CI0E620120118http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/china-economy-investment-idUSL3E8CI0E620120118http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/08/us-china-economy-jobs-idUSTRE8170DY20120208http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/china-economy-investment-idUSL3E8CI0E620120118http://www.cnbc.com/id/46033205/


5/13

The economy relies heavily on agriculture and petroleum exports as well as tourism.

Home to one of the most-visited attractions in the world, the Pyramids of Giza,Egypts tourism sector employs 10 percent of the countrys workforce and accounts

for11 percent of GDP .

The economy, however, is among the most fragile in this ranking due to Egypt'spolitical uncertainty. Violent anti-government protests that began in January 2011and helped topple the government of Hosni Mubarak have continued into 2012.

According to the investment bank Credit Agricole, each day of demonstrations coststhe economy $310 million. The tourism and manufacturing sectors and foreign directinvestment into the country have been most affected by the unrest. FDI, for example,fell 93 percentduring the first nine months of 2011, according to central bank data.

While the political uncertainty is clouding the outlook for the economy,some

economistsbelieve the revolution, if successful, could bring about positive changethat would far outweigh recent short-term losses, including reducing corruption and

improving the distribution of wealth.


7. Vietnam

Projected annual growth: 5.2%

2010 GDP: $59 billion*2050 projected GDP: $451 billion
http://www.sis.gov.eg/En/Story.aspx?sid=1042http://www.sis.gov.eg/En/Story.aspx?sid=1042http://www.arabianbusiness.com/egypt-growth-slows-as-turmoil-hurts-tourism-investment-436829.htmlhttp://www.arabianbusiness.com/egypt-growth-slows-as-turmoil-hurts-tourism-investment-436829.htmlhttp://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/312945http://www.arabianbusiness.com/egypt-growth-slows-as-turmoil-hurts-tourism-investment-436829.htmlhttp://www.sis.gov.eg/En/Story.aspx?sid=1042


6/13

As the worlds second-largest exporter of rice, agriculture has been a pillar ofVietnams economy. But this is rapidly changing as the government moves to

liberalize and diversify the economy.

While, state-owned enterprises contribute 40 percent of the countrys GDP, overseasinvestment has been on the rise since the country was granted entrance into the

World Trade Organization in 2007.

Vietnams low-cost manufacturing base has attracted a wave of foreign money,particularly by retail clothing and technology firms, looking for a cheaper alternative

to China.

Intel, the first international technology company to make a major investment in thecountry six years ago, has helped raise Vietnams profile as an investment

destination. A long list of companies including Samsung, Canon and Foxconn havefollowed, investing millions into developing manufacturing operations in the country.Analysts say this is helping to lay the foundation for Vietnam to become Asias next

big electronics manufacturing hub.

Vietnams rapid growth in the recent years, however, hasnt come without a price.The countrys pro-growth policies have resulted in record inflation. In 2011,

consumer prices soared over 18 percent, doubling the rate in 2010.


6. Malaysia


7/13

Projected annual growth: 5.3 percent2010 GDP: $146 billion*


Malaysia, Southeast Asias third-largest economy, also has one of the best economicrecords in the region, growing by anaverage 6.5 percentper year from its

independence in 1957 to 2005, according to the CIA World Factbook.

Once dependent on mining and agricultural exports such as tin and rubber, Malaysianow boasts a diversified economy a key factor in helping the country bounce backfrom the 1997 Asian financial crisis faster than its peers. It is now one of the world'slargest exporters of semiconductor devices, electrical goods and solar panels, and is

a global center for Islamic banking.

The economy is also supported by agrowing domestic consumer base, which thegovernment hopes to boost even further in coming years. In 2010, the countrys

prime minister unveiled a plan the New Economic Model aimed at more thandoubling the per capita income in Malaysia by 2020.

However, its not all rosy for the Southeast Asian economy, which is facing anoutflow of human capital to more developed countries. An increasing number ofMalaysians are looking to countries such as Singapore and Australia for better

education and career opportunities. Theskills shortageis hurting the countrysability to attract more high-tech, petrochemical and engineering companies from

abroad, according to the Malaysian International Chamber of Commerce andIndustry.
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2777.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2777.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2777.htmhttp://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065931832http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065931832http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/global/02brain.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/global/02brain.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/global/02brain.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/global/02brain.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/02/business/global/02brain.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065931832http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2777.htm


8/13


5. Bangladesh



Bangladesh is the poorest country to make the ranking, with around30 percentofthe population living below the international poverty line, according to governmentofficials. That equates to 45 million people living on $1.25 a day. But, things will be

very different in 40 years, according to HSBC, which says GDP per capita willincrease six fold between now and then.

One of the countrys biggest assets is its growing low-cost labor force. That hasattracted overseas investors such as JC Penney, Wal-Mart, H&M, Marks &

Spencer and Zara which have pumped money into the countrys manufacturingsector. Ready-made garment manufacturing, now a critical part of the economy,

employs 3.5 million workers and makes up more than 75 percent of theBangladeshs exports.

To encourage more investment in the sector, the government launched an initiativeto develop garment villages across the country. Consulting firm McKinsey believes

Bangladesh could fill the low-value manufacturing gap as Chinese manufacturersmoves up the value chain.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/bangladesh-adb-idINDEE7B70AI20111208http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/bangladesh-adb-idINDEE7B70AI20111208http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/bangladesh-adb-idINDEE7B70AI20111208http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/12/08/bangladesh-adb-idINDEE7B70AI20111208


9/13

Bangladeshs onshore and offshore gas reserves are also seen as a potential sourceof wealth. Last year, energy giants includingChevronandSantos, poured hundredsof millions of dollars into searching for gas in the largely unexplored deep waters of

the Bay of Bengal.


4. India



India, South Asias economic powerhouse, is forecast to leap six spots to becomethe worlds third-largest economy in absolute terms by 2050, replacing Japan.

Unlike regional rival China, Asias rising elephant has experienced robust growthonly since the 1990s following the governments move to deregulate the economy

and attract more foreign investment. The economic reforms and favorabledemographics have enabled India to play catch-up and emerge as one of the front-

runners in Asia.

Indias young and growing population offers a large workforce and booming

consumer market factors that are regarded as vital drivers of long-term growth.The countrys thriving middle class, a key source of domestic demand, stands at
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/bangladesh-investment-energy-idUSL3E7LP2HL20111025http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/bangladesh-investment-energy-idUSL3E7LP2HL20111025http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/bangladesh-investment-energy-idUSL3E7LP2HL20111025http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/bangladesh-energy-santos-idUKL3E7GP1SF20110525http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/bangladesh-energy-santos-idUKL3E7GP1SF20110525http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/25/bangladesh-energy-santos-idUKL3E7GP1SF20110525http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/25/bangladesh-investment-energy-idUSL3E7LP2HL20111025


10/13

approximately300 millionand is approaching the entire population of the UnitedStates.

These factors have positioned India as a preferred destination for foreign investment

in the region. The latest entrants into the market includecoffee chain giantStarbucksand global online shopping giant Amazon. In the first 11 months of 2011,

foreign direct investmenttotaled $50.81 billion, up 13 percent from the previousyear, according to Ernst & Young.


3. Peru



Referred to as South Americas rising star, Peru is enjoying its longest economicexpansion on record, averaging 7 percent growth from2003-2010. Growth is

expected to remain robust in coming decades, with HSBC forecasting the country tojump 20 places to become the 26 th largest economy by 2050.

The Andean nation, which was ravaged by a 20-year armed conflict with MaoistShining Path guerrillas between 1980-2000, has successfully managed to bounce

back thanks to a leap in private investment. The countrys pro-business governmenthas played a key role in this, encouraging decentralization and greater transparency.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cabinet-approves-51-fdimulti-brand-retail_623936.htmlhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cabinet-approves-51-fdimulti-brand-retail_623936.htmlhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cabinet-approves-51-fdimulti-brand-retail_623936.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-29/india/30675273_1_foreign-direct-investment-overseas-investment-e-yhttp://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-29/india/30675273_1_foreign-direct-investment-overseas-investment-e-yhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35762.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35762.htmhttp://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35762.htmhttp://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-29/india/30675273_1_foreign-direct-investment-overseas-investment-e-yhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/46196917/Starbucks_to_Enter_India_Targets_50_Outlets_by_Year_Endhttp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/cabinet-approves-51-fdimulti-brand-retail_623936.html


11/13

As the worlds second-largest producer of copper and silver, Peru has attracted

substantial investments in mining, which accounts for 60 percent of its exports. Theresources sector has attracted morethan $18 billionin investment, mostly foreign,

over the last 15 years.

But the mining boom has not come without resistance. Authorities have facedopposition from Perus indigenous groups in the Amazon region and Andean

mountains, who argue that the mining projects are wiping out their ancestral lands.

Theres also a large, unwanted contributor to the economy: drug trafficking. In 2010,Peru overtook Colombia as the leading producer of coca leaf, the source for cocaine.

According to the AFP, drug trafficking generated$22 billion in 2009,nearly 17percent of Peru's gross domestic product.


2. Ukraine

Projected annual growth: 6%2010 GDP: $45 billion*


The economy of Ukraine is forecast to increase 10 fold over the next 40 years,

outperforming its European peers.
http://www.forbes.com/2010/05/24/peru-eu-trade-business-oxford-analytica_2.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/2010/05/24/peru-eu-trade-business-oxford-analytica_2.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/2010/05/24/peru-eu-trade-business-oxford-analytica_2.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/2010/05/24/peru-eu-trade-business-oxford-analytica_2.htmlhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hctmxtl0dkJ5ljMGkZ8BHwFZCkjwhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hctmxtl0dkJ5ljMGkZ8BHwFZCkjwhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hctmxtl0dkJ5ljMGkZ8BHwFZCkjwhttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hctmxtl0dkJ5ljMGkZ8BHwFZCkjwhttp://www.forbes.com/2010/05/24/peru-eu-trade-business-oxford-analytica_2.html


12/13

The former Soviet republic is well endowed with natural resources, including high-quality agricultural land and mineral deposits. It also has the world's largest

manganese-ore fields, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment. The abundance of other mineral resources, including coal and iron,

has allowed it to become one of the largest refiners of metallurgical products inEastern Europe.

Demand for Ukraines top export, steel, and robust domestic consumption helped byrising pension and wages, led to an annual average growth rate of 7.5 percent forthe economy between 2001-2008, according to the OECD. However, the countrywas severely hit by the global economic downturn, which cut FDI inflows by more

than half and led to a 15 percent contraction in GDP during 2009.

In 2010, however, the country returned to positive growth, boosted by a recovery inexports. The value of Ukraines exports for 2010 was $52 billion, representing a 30

percent increase over the previous year, according to the CIA World Fact Book.

In addition to access to resources, one of Ukraines other competitive advantageshas been its focus on education and developing human capital, which HSBC

believes will be key for driving growth in coming decades. The country boasts a near100 percent literacy rate and has a well-qualified labor force an important factor

for attracting investment.


1. Philippines


13/13

Projected annual growth: 7%2010: $112 billion*


The Philippines has one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia. The population isset to jump by almost 70 percent over the next 40 years, and HSBC believes thecombination of its powerful demographics and strong fundamentals will drive the

economy to become the worlds 16th largest by 2050. That would mark a jump of 27places from its current ranking of 43.

The country is one of the worlds largest exporters of labor, with over9 millionFilipinosworking abroad, according to the latest data from the Commission of

Filipinos Overseas. In 2010, almost$19 billionwas sent back to the Philippines asremittances from Filipinos working abroad.

More recently, the countrys fast-developing business process outsourcing (BPO)industry has helped keep some of the workforce from leaving the country. Already350,000 Filipinosare estimated to work in call centers, compared with 330,000

Indians, according to the Contact Center Association of the Philippines. The industryis projected to provide more than 1 million jobs within two years.

The economys focus on the services sector and domestic consumption, as well as alower exposure to global financial markets, helped it to escape a recession following

the 2008 global financial crisis.

http://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdfhttp://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdfhttp://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdfhttp://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdfhttp://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/ofw.htmhttp://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/ofw.htmhttp://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/ofw.htmhttp://ccaponline.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=277:why-philippines-has-overtaken-india-as-worlds-call-center-capital&catid=96:industry-news&Itemid=283http://ccaponline.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=277:why-philippines-has-overtaken-india-as-worlds-call-center-capital&catid=96:industry-news&Itemid=283http://ccaponline.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=277:why-philippines-has-overtaken-india-as-worlds-call-center-capital&catid=96:industry-news&Itemid=283http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/ofw.htmhttp://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdfhttp://www.cfo.gov.ph/pdf/statistics/Stock%202010.pdf

Date post:	04-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	nam-sanchun
View:	217 times
Download:	0 times

The Best Countries for Long

Documents