The Bt Cotton Craze in Warangal and its Cultural Context

AAA, 3 Dec 2006

Glenn Davis StoneAnthropology and Environmental Studies

2002: 72,000 (2 hybrids). 2004: 1.3 million (4 hybrids) 2005: 3.1 million (20 hybrids)

Genetically Modified “Bt Cotton”

“Mutham Bt!”

Bt Stampede: What does it mean?• Interpreted by seed companies (and classic innovation-

diffusion theory) as driven by farmer evaluations;

• Actually fits remarkable pattern of seed crazes

• Farmer evaluation & experimentation play very small role in seed choice

• Instead, seed choices reflect agricultural deskilling

• The Warangal stampede teaches us something about decision-making in the face of unpredictability, but little about the merits of genetically modified crops

Innovation Diffusion Theorysee Ryan & Gross 1943; Rogers 1995; Beal, Rogers, & Bohlen 1957; inter alia

• Small experimental plots for evaluation

• Spread through recognizing experimental results plus social networks

• Farmers typology based on readiness to adopt– Innovators– Early Adopters– Early Majority– Late Majority– Laggards

• Adoption process broken down into stages– Awareness: farmer first learns– Information: farmer seeks further information– Evaluation: farmer weighs alternatives– Trial: farmer innovation in small-scale experiment– Adoption: farmer adopts the innovation full-scale

Cultural Evolutionary Theorysee Boyd & Richerson 1985; Henrich 2001; McElreath 2004; inter alia

• Environmental learning

• Social learning, especially biased transmission processes– Conformist transmission– Prestige transmission

• McElreath (2004): – farmer reliance on individual environmental learning is

a function of cost & accuracy of that learning– If costly/inaccurate, should rely more on social

learning

Bt Success: All Environmental Learning“Like the adoption of any new technology, people planted it on smaller acres initially, but the ever-increasing Bollgard plantings demonstrate that the Indian farmer is willing to embrace a technology that delivers consistent benefits in terms of reduced pesticide use and increased income. Clearly the steadily increasing Bollgard acres being planted by increasing numbers of Indian farmers bears testimony to the success of this technology and the benefit that farmers derive for it.” -- Ranjana Smetacek, Dir. Corporate Affairs, Monsanto India

"let the farmers finally decide on the usefulness of Bt cotton. Farmers are wise enough to adopt anything good and discard things that do not work" -- M.S. Rao, Andhra Pradesh Minister of Agriculture 2002

“Let farmers decide which variety to choose - Bt or non-Bt - on the basis of performance at the fields,” said Digonto Boarh … of Monsanto India. Punjab cotton farmers happy with Bt debut Business Standard, August 31, 2005, Mumbai

What about Cultural Transmission?

Farmers Ape Neighbors, Pay Price

- Deccan Chronicle, 6 Jun 2003

Demo Plots

Jaipal Reddy, pedda rytu (big farmer) in Gudeppad

Agricultural Deskilling

• Not removal of static set of skills; disruption of ongoing process of skilling

• Industrial deskilling eliminates jobs needing skill; in agriculture the skill is still required, but is diminished

Seeds sold in Warangal 2003-05: 135

Seeds sold in 2005 alone: 78

Number of those seeds on the market since 2003: 24

2004: detailed household and agricultural decision-making census, 420 households, 6 villages (in map)

2005: mainly crop choice & knowledge census, 675 households, 9 villages

Gudeppad

Cotton 2003 2004 2005

Vishwanath 22% 12% 1%

Ganesh 21% 11% 1%

Dhanno1001 10% 8% 1%

Atal 7% 3% 0%

Satya-619 7% 2% 0%

Brahma 5% 4% 0%

Geetha 5% 0% 0%

Chitra 0% 16% 0%

RCH-2 Bt 0% 14% 83%

Teja 1% 9% 0%

other 22% 21% 13%

n 150 189 78

Replanting vs. Naïve PlantingNaïve planting = planting a type of seed for the first time.

"Naïve" = something not previously subjected to experiments; not credulous.)

(The high naïve planting rate is not a function of the 2005 stampede for RCH2-Bt; the rate was also 79% in 2004.)

Experimental Planting?

• Dogma: farmers plant small experiment before adopting. Does this fit cotton seed choice?

• Virtually all cotton seed bought in “acre boxes” so most plantings are in acre increments

• Sub-acre plantings could be be-cause farmer wants to experiment, split a box with someone, etc.

• We didn’t specifically ask if sub-acre plantings were used for experiment but pattern is still clear…

Column % Years Experience with Seed

AcresPlanted naive 1-2 3+ Tot< 1 4% 3% 3% 4%

1-1.9 61% 65% 56% 61%

2+ 35% 33% 41% 35%

Tot 604 141 114 859

Experimental Plantings?

Row % Years Experience with Seed

Acres planted naive 1-2 3+ n< 1 77% 13% 10% 31

1-1.9 71% 17% 12% 526

2+ 69% 15% 16% 302

Tot 70% 16% 13% 859

•Farmers planting a seed for the 1st time were very slightly more inclined to plant small [top, <1 row]

• Of the small planting, most are by someone planting that seed for the first time [bot, <1 row]

• But small plantings are very rare: only 4% cotton plantings in 2003-04 were sub-acre

• When a farmer planted a seed for the 1st time, 96% of the time it was on 1 acre or more. Given that the median acreage in cotton is 2 (cotton farmers only), this is clearly not experimental small-planting.

Column % Years Experience with Seed

AcresPlanted naive

Weak exp.(1-2)

Strong exp(3+) Tot

< 1 4% 3% 3% 4%

1-1.9 61% 65% 56% 61%

2+ 35% 33% 41% 35%

Tot 604 141 114 859

But Seed Experience Does Have an Effect on Planting Strategies

Row % Years Experience with Seed

Acres planted naive

Weak exp. (1-2)

StrongExp(3+) n

< 1 77% 13% 10% 31

1-1.9 71% 17% 12% 526

2+ 69% 15% 16% 302

Tot 70% 16% 13% 859

• Farmers with strong experience (3+ years) are somewhat more likely to plant large acreages [bot, 3+ col]

• And of the large plantings, more belong to strong-experienced farmers than to seed-novices [top[, 2+ row]

• But only 13% of the 2003-04 cotton plantings were by farmers with strong-experienced farmers.

Boll Size?

The breeder considers the RCH2-Bt boll size to be medium.

So…• Market offers extensive, ever-changing, and often

deceptive roster of seeds

• Many of the key determinants of a good crop are unpredictable (germination; reliability of seed; insect and disease outbreaks)

• Villages show sharp ephemeral fads lacking agroecological rationale

• Over ¾ of all cotton plantings are naïve, and on non-experimental full plots

• Farmers are not engaged in environmental learning. So what drives cotton seed choices?

What drives seed choices: ethnography

Gemini in Kalleda• Popular vendor had stake

in it• Promotion with scratch

cards• Mandal president had

stake in it• One 2003 adopter was

influential• Conformist transmission

Chitra in Gudeppad• Pedda rytu had 2003

demo plot

What drives seed choices: theory