TheCESARPathwaysProject:TowardsClimateChangeSolutions
Withspecialthanks:
DavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)Initiative,[email protected]
CanadaWestFoundation:PopUpPolicyPresentationCalgary-March14,2018
Canada’sClimateChangeChallenge
Energy–Transportation
1990 2010 20300
200
400
600
800
GHGEmission
s(M
tCO2e/yr)
Year 2040
Energy–Stationary
Energy–Fugitive
205020202000
Ind.proc.&prod.Use
Agriculture
Agriculture Waste
ModifiedfromECCC2018(Draft)NationalInventoryReport
EnergySystems(81%)
2009Copenhagen1997Kyoto
Commitment
2015ParisCommitments
FailedFailed
ThisrequiresTRANSFORMATIVE-EVENDISRUPTIVE-SYSTEMSCHANGE
Canadianswanttoachievethiswhile:! Enhancingeconomicprosperity;
! GrowingtheCdnpopulation.
" Usefultoolsbuttheynotcapableofachievingthe2015Paristargets;
" Transformative,systems-levelchangesarerequiredtoachieve-14to-18MtCO2e/yr.
CurrentClimatePolicyTools
CURRENTTOOLS:# CarbonPricing# Regulations# Incentives
Butweliveinatimeofrapidchangedrivenbyotherforces:
Consider…" Media" Retail" Music" Movies" Books" Photography" Telecommunications
Time
PROPOSALTOMEETGHGTARGETS:Developpolicytoolsto‘direct’disruptiveinnovationsthatareoccurringforotherreasonssosocietalobjectivesaremet.
Outline
1. DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachtoclimatepolicymaking# aka“CESARPathwaysProject”
2. TransportationasanexampleA. PersonalMobilityB. SupplyChain
3. Conclusions
TheCESARPathwayProject
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
Data
Foreachsector,compile&assessdataonflowsofmaterials,energy,GHGs,$$,jobs,unintended
consequences,etc.
Problems
Disruptors
Identifywhatworksanddoesn’tworkwellinthesystem
Identifytechnology,businessmodel&socialinnovations
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels
CreateVisionfordeploymentofdisruptiveinnovationstoaddressthe‘problems’–including,butnotlimitedto,GHGemissions?
Quantifytheimplicationsofthe
proposedPathway(s)onenergyuseandGHGemissions.
PATHWAYSmustbe:1. CREDIBLE
" Technically,economically,socially
2. COMPELLING" Desirablebykey
stakeholders
EXISTINGSYSTEM
NEWSYSTEMPATHWAY
3.CAPABLEofachievingthetarget.
PATHWAY:Thetiming&magnitudeofspecifictechnology,infrastructure&behaviourchangesneededtomovefromonesystemtoanother.
DefiningPathways
TheCESARPathwayProject
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
Data
Foreachsector,compile&assessdataonflowsofmaterials,energy,GHGs,$$,jobs,unintended
consequences,etc.
Problems
Disruptors
Identifywhatworksanddoesn’tworkwellinthesystem
Identifytechnology,businessmodel&socialinnovations
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels
CreateVisionfordeploymentofdisruptiveinnovationstoaddressthe‘problems’–including,butnotlimitedto,GHGemissions?
Quantifytheimplicationsofthe
proposedPathway(s)onenergyuseandGHGemissions.
“Wecannotpredictthefuture,butwecaninventit.”DennisGabor,NobelPrize(Physics)(1971)
AnalysisPolicyAdvice
Analyzeregional&national;technical,
socio-economic,policyoptions,etc
Suggeststrategiestoachievesocietalobjectives,includingGHGreductions
Outline
1. DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachtoclimatepolicymaking# aka“CESARPathwaysProject”
2. TransportationasanexampleA. PersonalMobilityB. SupplyChain
3. Conclusions
WhyFocusonTransportation?
0
200
400
600
800Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
" ~24%ofCanada’sGHGemissions;" Createsdemandforoil:% Transportationfuels=70%ofeachbarrelofoil;% Contributesanother~23%ofCdnGHGs(incl.exports);
" Definesurbanform(esp.Sprawl);" AlbertaisintheTransportationbusiness!Transportationisacentury-oldecosystemthatis
ripefordisruptivechange
Transportationisthecritical‘Linchpin’inCanada’sGHGmanagementstrategy:
0
200
400
600
800
Fossil Fuel Industries
Supply Chain
Personal Mobility
Energy Using Ind.
Buildings
Bio-systems
Electricity Generation
MtC
O2e/yr
722 $
Canada’s 2015 GHG Emissions
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
0
40
80
120
Air
LRT/Bus Off-road
Comm
Trucks
Cars
Personal Mobility
Person
al(p
LDV)
LightD
utyVe
hicles(LDV)
• Triptype,#,length&mode;
• Cityvs.hwydriving• Vehicletype,fueleffic.,age
• Fueluse;• Costofownership• Unintendedconsequences
• Etc…
pLDV:mostimportant.Compile&Analyzedatatobuildtechnology-andbehaviour-richsimulation
models.
83%
Supply Chain
0
20
40
60
Themajorityofthefueluse&emissionsarefromlargeClass7and8semi-trailertrucksthatburndieselfuel.
A. Accidents# ~94%aretheresultofhumanerror;# ~2000fatalities+10,000seriousinjuries/yrinCanada# Societalcostof$62billionin2007,ortheequivalent
of4.9%ofGDP(Conf.BoardofCanada)
B.Congestion# 11.4MCanadianscommuteanavg.24minto&from
workabout240d/yr=4700personyearsofunproductivetimeEVERYDAY
# RethinkX(USthinktank)estimatedcommutingreducestheUSGDPby~$1T/yr. www.zmescience.com
www.zmescience.com
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
C.AirPollution# GroundlevelozoneandPM;mostlyfromvehicles–estimatedtocost$36B/yrinCanada(RobertSmith&KieranMcDougal2017)
D.GreenhouseGases# Well-to-WheelsforallroadTransportation:240Mt
CO2e/yror~33%ofCanada’sGHGemissions.
• @$30/tCO2=$7.2B/yr
# Well-to-WheelsforPersonalvehicletransport:115MtCO2e/yror16%ofCdnemissions.
0
40
80
120
1
WelltoTank
TanktoWheels
Car,LightTruck&
MotorcycleEm
ission
s(M
tCO2e/yr)
PersonalMobility
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
E.ValueforMoney# In2016,pLDVconsumed~18%householdconsumption[$10.6K/yr(Canada)-$13.8K/yr(AB)];
# pLDVusedonly~4%ofthetime,andthenwithonly1.5people/vehiclewhenthereareseatsfor5-7;
# Thesearenotwell-usedassets.
F.Parking,UrbanFormandTaxes# Carsareparked96%oftime,usingvaluableland.# InUSA,8parkingspots/vehicleonroad# UrbansprawlencouragedbypLDV# Highlysubsidized:Gastaxes,licensingfees,fines
etconlypayfor~2/3rdsofinfrastructurecost
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
ForPerson
alM
obilityOnly
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
Canada Alberta
1000’s$Cd
n/hou
seho
ld
Purchase/Le
ase/RentReg’n
,Insur,lice
nseMaintenance
FuelParkin
gPublicTrans
it
" HowInnovationsaredeployedwilldeterminewhatproblemsareaddressed.
" Policycanencourage,discourage,nudgeordirectinnovations.
DisruptiveInnovations: Accidents Congestion Valuefor$ Parking AirPollution GHGs
Autonomous(A) +++ --- -- + --- ---
Electric(E) +++ +++
Connected(C) ++ ++ +
Shared(S) + + + +
Mobility-as-a-service(ESACvehicles)
+++ ++ +++ +++ +++ +++
ProblemsinCanada’sPersonalMobilitySystem
Businessmodelinnovationthathasthemostpromiseofaddressingtheproblemsofthepersonalmobilitysystem.
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
Shared Electric
Mobility-as-a-Service
ConnectedAutonomous
" ~6-8personally-owned$1sharedvehicle;" Vehicleuse:4%$~35%ofthetime;" Avg.familypers.mobilitycost:$12K$$6K/yr;" Parkingdemanddramaticallyreduced;" Morewalkable,people-friendlycommunities;" Reductionincrudeoildemand;" Reductioninvehicleaccidents/fatalities;" Lossofsomejobs,butcreationofothers
ThisisonlyonevisionforaPathwaytosustainability.TheremaybeothersthataremoreCREDIBLE,COMPELLING&CAPABLEofachievingsocietalobjectives.
Taxidrivers,carsalesmen,vehiclerepair,oilworkers,parkinglotattendants,trafficpolice,insuranceagents.
Digitaltechnologies,sensors,softwaredevelopment,bigdatamanagement,gridenhancements,
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
0
10
20
30
2000 2020 2040 2060
Milli
ons V
ehic
les
PLD Vehicles ESAC
Vehicles
Billion
km/yr
#Vehicles0
200
400
600
800
PLDVehicles
ESACVehicles
BAUScenar
ioKmTravelled
BAUScenario
1ESACreplaces6PLDvehicles
Non-commuter
Commuter
Intercity
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2000 2020 2040 2060
MbblOil/day
OilDemand
BAUScenario
0
40
80
MtC
O2e/Year
LifecycleGHGEmissions
BAUScenario
PLDVehicles
Combustion
Upstreamoil
ESACUpstreamelectricity
Mobility-as-a-Service
Note:" ThisScenariorunwasabletoachievea~90%reductionin2005levelsofGHGemissionsby2050.
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
Outline
1. DirectingDisruption:Anewevidence-basedapproachtoclimatepolicymaking# aka“CESARPathwaysProject”
2. TransportationasanexampleA. PersonalMobilityB. SupplyChain
3. Conclusions
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
ForSupp
lyChainOnly
G.LoadFactor# Manyemptyorpartiallyemptytrucks# Highlyfragmentedsector,lacksunifiedvoice# Potentialforbusinessmodelinnovation
I. MaintenanceandOperationalCosts# Repairs,fuelandsalarycostsaccountforamajorpartofthecostoftransport.
H.TruckUseRate# Typically<<12hr/day# Assetidle
Fuel
InsuranceOther
$0
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
Costfo
rTypicalLon
ghaul
Shipmen
t(17to
nnesTX7
50km
)
Salaries,Wages,Benefits
CapitalMainten.
DataProblems
Disruptors
PathwayNarrative
ScenarioModels Analysis
PolicyAdvice
DisruptiveInnovations: Accidents Congestion AirPollution GHGs LoadFactor M&O UseRate
AutonomousTruck +++ -- -- -- +++ +++
ElectricTruck +++ +++ ++
ConnectedTruck ++ ++ + + ++ + +
BigData/PhysicalInternet + + + + +++ ++ +++
Robotics/Drones ++ ++ ++
Strategiccombination +++ ++ +++ +++ +++ +++ +++
ProblemsinCanada’sSupplyChainSystem
CESARiscurrentlyexploringvariousPathwaynarrativestoidentifythosethatareCREDIBLE,COMPELLING&CAPABLEofreachingthetarget.
KeyQuestion:Inanautonomous,connected,big-dataworld,whatkindofelectrictruckisbetterforCanada?
TheWaroftheElectricTrucks
H2FuelCellElectric(HFCE) BatteryElectric(BE)Nicola
Toyota
KenworthOuranalysissuggeststhatHFCEmaybean
advantageforCanada…
Thor
Daimler
Tesla
• Needsmajorinfrastructure;
• Couldhelpwithgreengrid
• Rangeconcerns• Couldsignificantlyincreasethechallengeofgreeningthegrid
AHydrogenEconomyEcosystem
FreightCarriers&SupplyChainPartners
RenewablePower
PowerHeat
Water
H2Prod’n
CarbonMgmt
Oxy-fuelCombinedCycle
Power$H2Production
Truck/FuelCellMfgrs
OtherH2Users
Distribution&FuelingSystems
NaturalGas&OilCompanies
H2
CO2
CBlackCO2
H2 H2
O2
HFCEVehicles
OilorCH4CH4
TRANSPORTATION" Associatedwithperformance&lowtotalcost;" Complementsautonomyshift;" The‘AnchorTenant’intheH2ecosystem‘mall’
MANUFACTURING" Anopportunitytoattractnewgrowthindustries
toCanada" Specialopp.forON(vehicles)&AB+BC(HFC)
OIL&GAS" Engagesexistingenergyindustry,infrastructure,
resources&tech.expertise,esp.inAB,SK,BC;" Lowestcost,existingtechnologies;NGpipelines
cancarry15%H2;CO2storageoptions.
POWER" H2fromexcess,lowcostrenewableswhile
providingenergystorage&‘dispatchable’power." SpecialopportunityforBC,MB,QC,NL+SK&AB
OTHER" Createslowcarbonopportunitiesforothersectors
(fertilizer,oilandgas,steel,biofuels,homeheating,etc.)
WCanadacouldleadthistransformationandremaininthe‘transportationbusiness’fordecadestocome.
ListofCountriesBanningFossilFuelVehicles
FromWikipedia:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_banning_fossil_fuel_vehicles
Conclusion1. PathwaystoclimatechangetargetsbecomemoreCREDIBLE,COMPELLING
andCAPABLEofreachingthetargetswhentheyareintegratedwithothersocietalobjectives(economic,health,social,convenience/comfort);
2. Transformativetechnology,businessmodelandsocialinnovationsexistinmanysectors,butpolicymakersmayneedto‘directdisruption’toachievesocietalgoals;
3. TheTransportationsectorispoisedfordisruptionandgiventhepotentialbenefitsofthenewbusinessmodels,thetransformationcouldberapid;
4. Asanoilproducer,WesternCanadaneedstorecognizethatitisintheTransportationbusiness,andinthefaceofdisruptivechange,figureouthowtostayinthattheTransportationbusiness(H2economy?)
5. ‘Inventthefuture’.
Discussion
DavidB.Layzell,PhD,FRSC.ProfessorandDirector,
CanadianEnergySystemsAnalysisResearch(CESAR)Initiative,UniversityofCalgary
[email protected] 403220-5161 www.cesarnet.ca
