The Challenge of Emerging Risk Identification: Identification:
Building a capacity for the identification of emerging risksidentification of emerging risks
1
DefinitionDefinition ofof EmergingEmerging RiskRisk
N H d SignificantNew Hazard Significant exposure
EmergingNew Emerging Risk
New Exposure
Known Hazard
Increased susceptibility
ESFA, 2007. Definition and description of « emerging risks » within the EFSA’s mandate. Statement of the Scientific Committee, 10 July 2007.
Emerging Risks Emerging Risks -- EFSA’sEFSA’s definitiondefinition
The EFSA definition is hazard based and as such is limited inscope to the short and medium term identification ofemerging risks.
The long term anticipation of emerging risks is rather basedon the identification of drivers (one does not have to beable to identify a specific hazard in order to be able toable to identify a specific hazard in order to be able toanticipate that a certain action or change in conditions maywell give rise to the emergence of a risk).
Therefore, the identification of drivers is also considered inEFSA’s identification of emerging risks.
444
Anticipation TimescaleAnticipation Timescale
A ti i tiAnticipation
Early identification
Crisis preparationpreparation
Working definitions for this Working definitions for this Colloq i mColloq i mColloquiumColloquium
Handout provided in you packs !you packs !
666
Overall strategy being developed at EFSAat EFSA• Relies on three steps:
– Data collection • Soft – media, grey literature• Regulatory – RASFF, trade data, compulsoryRegulatory RASFF, trade data, compulsory
monitoring/surveillance• Scientific literature• Expert judgement Panels Units Networks Stakeholders• Expert judgement – Panels, Units, Networks, Stakeholders
– Data analysis, signal detection and filtering– Exchange of informationg
• Progressive implementation– 2009-10 Food and feed– 2011: Plant Health
2012 A i l H lth– 2012: Animal Health
Emerging risks identification systemEmerging risks identification system
Data collection Data analysis, signal detection and
Exchange of informationdetection and
filtering
Database
information
Stakeholders Consultative GroupPrimar FilterDatabase
assessmentConsultative Group
Emerging Risks Network and the
Primary Filter
Data monitoring
Advisory Forum
Secondary FilterEFSA Panels, Units
Data monitoring Secondary FilterEFSA’s Panels
RecommendationMonitoring Data gathering
8
Monitoring, Data gathering, risk assessment, research
……….
Key outputs: Key outputs: http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/http://www.efsa.europa.eu/
Annual reportUpdate on strategy and methodsReporting of results of monthly monitoring and case studiesp g y gInput from Network and stakeholders
Long term issues (published every 3 years from 2012)Long term issues (published every 3 years from 2012)Future issues (by Panel)Contributions from Network and stakeholders
Technical reportsOutput from WGs on methodology and data sources
Colloquium reportSummary of presentations and the discussion groups
999
Key playersKey players
1. EFSA Panels and Scientific Committee –secondary filter
2. External experts – technical working groups
3 Member States EU agencies 3. Member States, EU agencies, International agencies, 3rd Countries –Emerging Risks networkEmerging Risks network
4. Stakeholders – Stakeholders Consultative group (industry, consumer organisations, NGOs)
5. EFSA staff – primary filter
10
Objectives of the ColloquiumObjectives of the Colloquium
To bring together international experts fromTo bring together international experts fromdifferent sectors for an open debate with the aim ofproviding practical inputs for the developmentp g p p pof EFSA’s methodological framework for theidentification of emerging risks
11
Colloquium ObjectivesColloquium Objectives
Emerging risks in food: from identification to communicationto communication
Discussion groups:g
i) Methods for the identification of emerging risks.
ii) Data types and sources for the identification of emerging risks.
iii) How to build a European network, and to communicate succesfully with risk managers on emerging risks.
iv) Drivers of change – an expert elicitation
12