The Changing Demographics of New American Children
Children’s Law Symposium
October 26, 2011Houston, TX
2000Population*
2010Population*
NumericalChange
2000-2010
PercentChange
2000-2010United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
15.7% of numerical change in U.S.
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
Growing States, 2000-2010
Percent ChangeDue to
Year* PopulationNumerical
ChangeNatural
IncreaseNet
MigrationPercentChange
NaturalIncrease
NetMigration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- -- --1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.2 93.91 6.091970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.9 86.74 13.261980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.1 41.58 58.421990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.9 65.85 34.152000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.8 49.65 50.352009 24,782,302 3,930,484 2,124,124 1,781,785 18.8 54.04 45.33
*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 to2001
2001 to2002
2002 to2003
2003 to2004
2004 to2005
2005 to2006
2006 to2007
2007 to2008
2008 to2009
InternationalState-to-State
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000-2009
Percent of Migrants to Texas by Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009
Net domesti
c migr
ation
International
migrati
onTotal
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
44%24% 33%
28%50% 40%
23% 8% 15%
5%18% 12%
OtherBlackHispanicWhite
67% of all migrants
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
52% of all migrants were international
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
6
Estimated Domestic Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of the 2000 Population
Legend-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
7
Legend0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Estimated International Migration (2000-2008) by County as a Percentage of the 2000 Population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. March 19, 2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010
NH White53%
NH Black12%
NH Other
4%
His-panic or Latino32%
2000
NH White45%
NH Black11%
NH Other6%
Hispanic or Latino
38%
2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
9
Percent Change of Total Population by County, 2000-2010
Population increase for Texas was 20.6% during this period.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Water'PROJECTIONS X$'.pctch0010
-20%-0%
1%-10%
10.1-25%
25.1%-50%
50.1%-82%
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
-3 to -0.5
-0.49 to -.001
0
.001 to .5
.51-2.1
10
Numeric Change in Hispanic Population by county, 2000-2010Numeric Change Hispanic 2000-2010
nch_hsp0010-1,200 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 5,000
5,001 - 15,000
15,001 - 25,000
25,001 - 56,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
11
Numeric Change in Asian Population by County, 2000-2010
Numeric Change Asian 2000-2010nch_asi0010
-198 - 0
1 - 500
501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 77,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
12
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
1,200,000 800,000 400,000 0 400,000 800,000 1,200,000
Anglo Male Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Anglo Female Hispanic Female Black Female Other Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
13
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Anglo Male Anlgo Female
Projected Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
0-4 yrs
5-9 yrs
10-14 yrs
15-19 yrs
20-24 yrs
25-29 yrs
30-34 yrs
35-39 yrs
40-44 yrs
45-49 yrs
50-54 yrs
55-59 yrs
60-64 yrs
65-69 yrs
70-74 yrs
75-79 yrs
80-84 yrs
85+ yrs
800000 400000 0 400000 800000
Hispanic Male Black Male Other Male Hispanic Female Black FemaleOther Female
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2009
Percent Foreign Born0-5%
5-10%
10-15%
15-25%
25-35%
Percent of Population that is Foreign Bornby County, 2005-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
15
Legal Status of U.S. Immigrants
37.0 Million Foreign-Born in 2005Source: Passel, J. (2006) The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Pew Hispanic Research Center.
16
Estimates of the U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population, 2000-2010
17
Unauthorized Families’ Mixed Composition
Source: Passel, J. (2006) The Size and Characteristics of the Unauthorized Migrant Population in the U.S. Pew Hispanic Research Center.
18
Parents' Status for Births in the U.S., 2009
Notes: Births occurring March 2009 –March 2010 based on population under age 1. Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding. Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on augmented March Supplements to the Current Population Survey.
19
Children with At Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent, by Status for 2000-2010
Note: Children are persons under age 18 who are not married. Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on augmented March Supplements to the Current Population Survey.
20
States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
State Estimate (thousands) Range
California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950)
New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)
Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).
Percent of the Population 5 Years and Over Who Speak Spanish at Home, 2009
Texas
California
New Mexic
o
Arizona
Nevada
Florid
a
New Jerse
y
New York
Montana
North Dak
otaMain
e
West Virg
inia
Vermont
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2009.
Percent aged 5 years plus who speak Spanish at home0-10%
10-25%
25-50%
50-75%
75-96%
Percent of the Population 5 Years and Over Who Speak Spanish at Home, 2006-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009.Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.
23
Educational Attainment of Persons 25 Years of Age and Older by Ethnicity in Texas, 2009
Non-Hispanic WhiteHispanic
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
8%43%
25%
25%33%
21%34%
11%
Bachelor's degree or higherSome college or as-sociate's degreeHigh school graduate, GED, or alternativeLess than high school diploma
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2009.
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
18.8
29 28.7
18.2
5.3
30.128.7
23.9
12.9
4.4
No High School Diploma
High School Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's Degree
Graduate/Prof.Degree
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Percent
2000 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
25
Demographics and Destiny
26
Contact
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: [email protected]: http://osd.state.tx.us
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.