The Changing Face of Houston and America...10 12 9 19 21 24 7 10 11 11 0% 50% 100% 1973 (91 million)...

The Changing Face of Houston and America:

Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demographic

Transformations through 34 Years of Houston Surveys

Dr. Stephen Klineberg Houston Investor Conference

11 April 2016

2

The Kinder Houston Area Survey

(1982-2015)

Thirty-four years of systematic interviews with representative samples of

Harris County residents, focused on three central issues:

The Demographic Revolution

The New Economy

Quality of Place

Economic Outlooks

Two

contrasting

economic eras

The 30 years after World

War II were a period of

broad-based prosperity.

The past 30 years have been

marked by growing

concentrations of wealth.

3 U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements.

Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth and the Top 5 Percent,

Inflation Adjusted to 2013 dollar.

Percent increase in before-tax income

The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979)

The past 30 years (1979-2013)

116%

100%

111% 114%

99%

86%

-3% 2% 7% 16%

43%

63%

-10%

50%

110%

Bottom20%

Second20%

Middle20%

Fourth20%

Top20%

Top5%

Economic Outlooks 4

The education requirements for jobs

in America (1970-2010)

32

10 11 12

40

34 30 24

19 17

18

12

8 10

12

9

19 21 24

7 10 11 11

0%

50%

100%

1973 (91 million) 1992 (129 million) 2010 (143 million) 2020 (164 million)

Year and Number of Available Jobs

Master's degree or better

Bachelor's degree

Associate's degree

Some college

High school diploma

Less than high school

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2014.

"Recovery: Job Growth and Education Requirements through 2020."

Retrieved from cew.georgetown.edu/recovery2020, on July 27, 2015.

By 2020, 65% of all

American jobs will

require education

beyond high school.

Economic Outlooks

The perceived importance of education

beyond high school (2015)

5 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2015)

© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

66

53

76 75

68

32

44

23 23

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total sample Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians

PE

RC

EN

T O

F R

ES

PO

ND

EN

TS

An education beyond high school is necessary

There are many ways to succeed with no more than high school

"For a person to be successful in today's world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high

school, or are there many ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?"


The Demographic Revolution 7

0.1

8.8

0.5

10.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1820s 1830s 1840s 1850s 1860s 1870s 1880s 1890s 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

The number of documented U.S.

immigrants, by decade (1820-2010)

From 1492 to 1965, 82% of all the

immigrants who came to American

shores came from Europe.

After reform of the restrictive laws in

1965, fully 88% of all the new immi-

grants have been non-Europeans.

Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Office of Immigration Statistics.


1924 “National Origins Quota Act”

1965 “Hart-Celler Act”

Millions of immigrants


San Diego Los Angeles

New York City

San Francisco

Miami

Chicago

Houston

Major U.S. immigrant cities (2010)

Washington D.C.

Atlanta

Dallas

Boston


Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

Asians

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos Asians

Anglos

Blacks Latinos Asians

0

1

2

3

4

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N IN

MIL

LIO

NS

9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

0.8%

1,741,912

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2014

The demographic transformations of Harris

County (1960-2014)

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data

Center Conventions. 2014 data from 2010 Census Population

Estimates for July 1, 2014 © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the

Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

2,818,199

22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

4.1%

6.7%

32.9%

18.2%

42.1%

3,400,578

6.8%

18.5%

41.8%

31.4%

4,441,370

19.7%

62.7%

2.1%

15.5%

2,409,547 1,243,258

6.0%

19.8%

73.9%

0.3%


Anglos


Anglos


Anglos

Blacks

Latinos Asians

Anglos


0

300,000

600,000

15.5

The demographic changes in Fort Bend

County and Montgomery County (1990-2010)

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Conventions.


53.8%

20.3%

19.5%

6.5%

1990

46.2%

19.6%

21.1%

13.1%

36.2%

21.1%

23.7%

19.0%

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

87.5%

4.2% 7.3%

1.0%

225,421 354,452 585,375 182,201 293,768 455,746

Fort Bend County Montgomery County

71.2%

4.1% 20.8%

4.0%

81.4%

3.4% 12.6%

2.5%


1980

Harris County total population

Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority

Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC. Color represents demographic

group being a majority in that census tract.

© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban

Research

11






Research

12

Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority 1990






Research

13

Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority 2000






Research

14

Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority

2010


21 22 24 24 24 29 28

30

40

49

53

60

79 78 76 76 76 71 72

70

60

51

47

40

Non-Hispanic Whites All Others

Percent of the population by age group and

ethnicity in Harris County (2013)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009-2013 ACS 5-year estimates


Research 15


Percent of the population by age group

and ethnicity in Texas (2013)


© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research 16

32 33 35 36

39 40 40 42

52

59

65

70 68 66 65 64

61 60 60 58

48

41

35 30

Non-Hispanic Whites All others



and ethnicity in the United States (2013)



50 53 54 56 57 58 58 60

68

74 78

82

50 47 46 44 43 42 42 40

32

26 22

18


The Demographic Revolution 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2012 National Population Projections,

Alternative Net International Migration Series (Constant Series).


36 38 39 41 42 43 44

46

50 53

56

64 64 62 61 59 58 57 56

54

50 47

44

36



and ethnicity in the United States in 2050


Educational attainment by ethnicity, age

25 and older (2004-2014 combined)

Source: Kinder Houston Area Surveys (2004-2014)


Percent of respondents

Less than H.S.

H.S. diploma

Some college

College degree

Post-graduate

Asian Immigrants U.S.-born Anglos U.S.-born Blacks U.S.-born Latinos Latino Immigrants

3%

8%

21%

27%

59%

10%

20%

28% 28%

23% 21%

32% 31%

28%

11%

39%

26%

14% 13%

6%

27%

14%

7% 5%

2%


17%

43%

33%

15%

32%

36%

22%

29%

54%

43%

22%

60%

47%

20%

70%

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

20

Socioeconomic

status among

Latinos by time

in the U.S. and

by generation (2005-2014)

Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S.

Personal

earnings of

more than

$25,000

Some college

education or

more (Age 25+)

Working in

production

jobs or as

day laborers




28%

52%

37%

50%

58%

53%

71%

64%

70%

68%

67%

83%

64%

77%

78%

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

<10 years

10-19 years

20+ years

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

21

Correlates of

SES among

Latinos by time

in the U.S. and

by generation (2005-2014)

Percent of Latinos by time in the U.S.

Has internet

access at home

or work

Owns the place

where lives

Self and family

have health

insurance




54 55

69 72

66 71

74

83

75 72

45 49

59

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2009 2011 2013 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2012 2014

Would like to see the U.S.

admit more or the same

number of legal immigrants

Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the U.S.

a path to legal citizenship, if they speak

English and have no criminal record."

Immigrants to the U.S.

generally contribute

more than they take.

Attitudes toward immigration among

successive representative samples of Harris

County residents (2009-2015)

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2010-2015)

© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the

Kinder Institute for Urban Research


70+ 60-69 50-59 40-49 30-39 18-29

Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2014)


57% 58% 50% 41% 24% 14%

“Have you ever been in a romantic relationship

with someone who was not Anglo?”

Interethnic romantic relationships by age

among Anglos (2007, 2011 and 2014 combined)


37%

60%

50%

44%

59%

59%

46%

74%

61%

66%

84%

70%

Percent of Anglos

agreeing, by age:

Ethnic

attitudes by

age among

Anglos (2007–2015,

combined)

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

“The increasing ethnic

diversity in Houston

brought about by immi-

gration is a good thing,

rather than a bad thing.”

Favor: “granting illegal

immigrants in the U.S. a

path to legal citizenship,

if they speak English and

have no criminal record.”

“The increasing immi-

gration into this country

today mostly strength-

ens, rather than threat-

ens, American culture.”

24 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2007-2014)


18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

Economic Outlooks

Hiking, boating,

birding

Arts, culture, sports

Air and water quality Green spaces, trees

Urban centers

Bayous Transportation

Quality of Place

Quality of Place

Houston’s urban sprawl

2.1 million

600 sq. mi.

Chicago 2.7 million

228 sq. mi.

Baltimore 0.6 million

81 sq. mi.

26 Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Detroit 0.7 million

139 sq. mi. Philadelphia 1.5 million

134 sq. mi.

Quality of Place

The nine-county Houston

metropolitan area

5.8 million

9,434 sq. mi.

New Jersey 8.8 million

8,729 sq. mi.

27 Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Quality of Place

The divided preference for car-centered vs.

transit-oriented developments (2010-2015)

28 Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2010-2015)


50 50

57

40

47 50

47

51

47

52

44

51

47 50

52

46 46 49

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

A single-familyresidential area

An area with a mixof developments

A single-familyhome with need todrive everywhere

A smaller, moreurbanized homewithin walking

distance

Spending more toexpand existing

highways

Spending more toimprove rail and

buses

2011, 2013, 2015 2010, 2012, 2014 2010, 2012, 2014

PE

RC

EN

T O

F R

ES

PO

ND

EN

TS


1978

© Alex MacLean


2011

© Alex MacLean

Houston needs to develop into a

truly successful multiethnic

society, one with equality of

opportunity for all communities,

where all are encouraged to

participate as full partners in

shaping the region’s future.

Today’s pro-growth agenda

The Houston region needs to

nurture a far more educated

workforce and develop the

research centers that will fuel

the new economy. The Demographic Revolution

The New Economy

Quality of Place

The Houston region needs to

grow into a much more

appealing urban destination,

while accommodating an

expected 3.5 million additional

residents in the next 20 years.

kinder.rice.edu

[email protected]

713-348-4132

@RiceKinderInst

/InstituteForUrbanResearch

Tour of NRG Park/NRG

Stadium– Home of 2017

Super Bowl

Pre-registration Required

Load Bus outside Hall E at

1:15 PM

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