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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
A Deloitte Research study
The changing landscapeor inrastructureunding and fnance
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16 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
Contents
Disclaimer
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About Deloitte Research
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1 Introduction
2 On the demand side
5 On the supply side
7 In summary
8 Endnotes
9 About the authors
11 Recent Deloitte Research public sector thought leadership
12 Contacts
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
Introduction
Two years on, policy makers are still sorting through the
wreckage ollowing the nancial tsunami that roiled the
world in 2008 and the ensuing global recession, the
deepest in generations. The inrastructure sector was not
immune. In act, it could be argued that inrastructure
is uniquely disadvantaged in the crisis and its atermath.
At this point only one thing is certain: the landscape or
inrastructure unding and nance has been dramatically
altered and could remain so or at least the near term.
Two trends are now evident. First, governments are using
increased inrastructure spending as an economic stimulus
tactic. Second, tightened credit markets are posing an
obstacle to raising debt nance or inrastructure delivery
models — public or private — that depend on high levels
o up-ront capital repaid over the long term through user
ees or general taxation.
This article discusses these trends and the impact o each
on inrastructure unding/nance, particularly with respect
to the prospects or public-private partnerships (PPPs) in
the United States and around the world.
Figure 1 portrays the emerging contours o the new
inrastructure unding/nance landscape, outlining
conditions on both sides o the market: the “demand”
or inrastructure unding/nance and the “supply” o
unding/nance on the part o the public and privatesectors.
Figure 1. How the inrastructure landscape has changed in the wake o the credit crisis
‘Pre-credit crisis’ trends ‘Post-credit crisis’ trends
Demand
• Limitedpublicmoneyforinfrastructure
• Highconstructioncosts
• Fiscaldynamicsencouraginggovernmentstoexplore alternative delivery models
Supply
• Well-functioningdebtcapitalmarketsandinternational project nance loan market
• Highlygearedcapitalstructuresandattractiveequityreturns
• Dominanceofactiveequityinvestorsandemergenceof inrastructure unds
Demand
• Infusionofpublicmoneyforinfrastructure
• Fallingconstructioncosts
• Fiscaldistresssolidifyinginterestinalternativedeliverymodels
Supply
• Challengeddebtcapitalmarketsaidedbynewborrowing instruments
• Priceandtenorconstraintsininternationalprojectnanceloanmarket
• Variabilityinequityreturns
• Impairmentofsomeactiveequityplayersbalancedbycontinuedgrowth in inrastructure unds
Source: Deloitte
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2 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
On the demand side
Inusion o public money or inrastructure. Ater
a period o underinvestment in public inrastructure, the
2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA)
has directed substantial public unding to transportation,
energy and IT inrastructure, schools and ederal build ing
modernization, among other areas. Investing in public
works to stimulate economic activity is hardly a U.S.
phenomenon. Around the world, inrastructure investment
has become a signicant component o a number o
economic stimulus packages developed to respond tothe global recession. The European Union has committed
upward o $200 billion to inrastructure. Further east, India
is investing around $30 billion in upgrading the country’s
infrastructure,whileChinaannouncedthathalfofits$585
billion stimulus package would go to inrastructure. While
the sizable infux o government stimulus dollars will not
come anywhere close to eliminating the “inrastructure
decit,” stimulus unds should certainly help improve the
condition o inrastructure badly neglected over the past
ew decades.1
Falling construction costs. As o March 2009,
investment spending (which includes construction) wasdown 12 percent in the United States, and over 20
percent in several Asian and Middle East markets, with
worldwide construction activity levels not expected to
return to their 2008 peak until at least 2011.2 Due to
diminished global demand (or both residential and
nonresidential construction), commodity prices have allen
globally, and other construction prices have allen in some
jurisdictions.3 With new stimulus unds now available or
inrastructure, government leaders can take advantage
o lower construction costs while providing a needed
boost to employment. An estimated $50 million project
at Baltimore’s BWI Airport, or example, will be built or
$8 million less than original estimates in part because o
increased competition among contractors.4
Low prices, however, may only be a temporary
phenomenon. The need to spend new government unds
quickly could actually send construction costs in the other
direction i demand outstrips capacity in local and regional
markets. Another distortion could occur i contractors
adopt a “low-bid” strategy and subsequently recoup the
discount through change orders. Governments should be
aware o these risks and develop strategies to mitigate
them through careul staging o capital programs and
aggressive contract management.
Changing shape o the demand or PPPs. It is too
early to tell or certain whether the inusion o public
money will dampen or stimulate governments’ demand
or public-private partnerships or other creative nancing
solutions. During the rst wave o stimulus spending in
the United States, or example, the emphasis has been
on ast delivery and job creation. I there are later waves,
attention will likely turn back toward achieving the goals
that various PPP models were intended to satisy: more
inrastructure, delivered better, aster, and cheaper.5
More public subsidy does not have to mean less privatecapital. In act, it could actually oster the reverse: better
project economics, better credit and more private capital
put to work. I the hundreds o billions in planned
inrastructure spending in the stimulus packages can be
leveraged with private unds, then stimulus dollars can
generate an even more proound impact on nations’
economies.
Indeed, there are many viable options or integrating
stimulus unds into PPP project structures. In many
countries, PPPs have been successully executed or
projects that required public subsidy to be viable. In those
cases, government unding was used to “write down”
particular project costs (capital and/or operating) or risk
elements either up ront or over the entire project lie
cycle. Such an approach could be used to leverage the
stimulus unding.
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
In addition to writing down particular project costs,
jurisdictions are increasingly looking or innovative ways
to make projects viable by involving multiple public sector
entities, both within and across jurisdictions. Public-public-
private-partnerships, or “P4s,” are starting to emerge as a
way to get projects o the ground by combining multiple
levels o public support. For instance, a new energy-
rom-waste project being developed in Staordshire in
The ARRA is impacting the inrastructure sector in two
ways: the act increases ederal spending on projects; and
it expands the instruments available in the U.S. municipal
bond market to help ease recent tight credit conditions.
We review each o these developments in turn.
Increased ederal spending on inrastructure.
While ARRA spending will increase inrastructure
investment, the ocus on speedy job creation has thus ar
directed the bulk o the money toward more traditional
delivery and maintenance projects and away rom new
innovative and transormative inrastructure projectsand delivery mechanisms. Specically, the combination
o “use it or lose it,” “shovel-ready,” and maintenance-
o-eort provisions has meant that the money will need
to be spent on projects that are near the end o or past
the permitting stages and that can obtain nancing
immediately. Except or a ew PPP projects that have
been mothballed or delayed, it is unlikely that most
PPPswillbeabletomeetthesetimelines.Coupled
with the additional time and eort that state and local
governments are spending to ensure compliance with
the heightened accountability standards, the result
is that most inrastructure developers simply do not
have the increased up-ront time required to ashion
innovative delivery mechanisms in order to use ARRA
unds in PPPs.
It is important to note, though, that while the ARRA
may slow down PPP activity in the short term, the act
could serve to accelerate it in the long term. As we have
indicated, the amount o money being spent on stimulus
alls ar short o what is required. Using stimulus unds
to “catch up” on deerred maintenance may ree up
the United Kingdom is a collaborative eort o a number
o local governments that are banding together to
achieve economies o scale that will make the project
viable. Meanwhile, the United States has or decades
employed public-public partnerships to develop and
nance inrastructure through the creation o joint powers
agencies, multistate authorities, regional development
agencies and other vehicles.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act o 2009 and PPPs
budgetary and other resources in the uture, helping
to pave the way or development o new inrastructure
through more innovative delivery mechanisms.
Changes in municipal bonds. The ARRA includes a
number o provisions designed to broaden the base o
investors in municipal bonds, thereby increasing private
investment in inrastructure. While many o the newly
created instruments are expansions or renements o
previous programs, one, Build America Bonds (BABs),
represents a signicant shit in the way municipal debt
isstructured.Historically,interestearnedonmunicipalbonds issued or most governmental purposes has
been exempt rom ederal income taxation. This implicit
subsidy has lowered the cost o capital or state and
localgovernments.However,ithasalsolimitedthe
investor base to parties or whom exemption rom
ederal taxation has value — U.S. taxpayers.
BABs are ederally taxable bonds oered by
municipalities in which the ederal government makes
the subsidy “explicit” by providing a reimbursement
o 35 percent o the bond interest payable, either to
the municipal bond issuer (in cash) or to the municipal
bond holder (in the orm o a tax credit). To date, all
BABs interest reimbursements have been remitted to
the municipal bond issuer. (The bond holder tax credit
option is believed to be less ecient as a subsidy
mechanism.) BABs, as taxable instruments widely
salable beyond the traditional connes o the U.S.
municipal bond investor base, have the potential not
only to broaden the investor base but also to impact
the discussion on inrastructure nancing, as the ederal
subsidy becomes more transparent.
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4 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act o 2009 and PPPs (cont.)
While BABs are unlikely to be used or PPPs because
o the nongovernmental nature o the use o proceeds
in PPP structures, there are two other ARRA municipal
bond provisions that could prove directly benecial to
PPPs.
Private activity bonds (PABs) have been
exempted rom the alternative minimum tax
(AMT), making such bonds ully tax ree.
This exemption applies to PABs issued in 2009 and
2010, as well as to new PABs issued to reund bonds
issued between 2004 and 2009. Use o PABs in PPP
capital structures has been impeded by the application
o AMT. The exemption has both lowered the cost
and broadened the investor base or PABs, making the
U.S. debt capital markets a more attractive source o
nancing alongside the traditional project nance loan
market.
The Secretary o Transportation has been given
a $1.5 billion allocation or Transportation
Investment Generating Economic Recovery
(TIGER) discretionary grants or transportation,
o which up to $200 million can be used to
support the Transportation Inrastructure
Finance and Innovation Act o 1998 (TIFIA)
program, or up to $2 billion in estimated new
TIFIA loans.
TIFIA credit support has become an increasingly
important component o U.S. PPP nancing strategies,
partly in response to credit market conditions. In many
recent deals, the advantageous price o a TIFIA credit
acility has been a key driver o a successul bid. But
renewed interest in TIFIA has led to a situation where
loan authority is being rapidly depleted, and so this
increased capacity should be well received and rapidly
utilized.
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
On the supply side
Tightened credit markets. Financing markets are
improving, but they may remain less attractive than usual
or the near term. In this context, nancing markets
include both government bond markets such as the U.S.
municipal bond market (where inrastructure capital is
traditionally raised), and the international project nance
loan markets that provide capital or many PPPs.
While many market participants have viewed inrastructure
as an attractive deensive asset class during thisrecessionary period, the dynamics o the credit markets,
particularly with respect to the tenor o debt, have moved
in the opposite direction. As a result, deal volume is down.
Transactions that are being executed are taking more time,
incurring higher costs and relying more heavily on ocial
nancing rom institutions like the European Investment
Bank and TIFIA. In the U.S., traditional municipal bond
investors have been tapped through the use o Private
Activity Bonds (PABs) and governments have been making
grants or equity contributions to capital structures. While
several sizable, precedent-setting transactions (the UK’s
M25, Florida’s I-595, and Texas’ North Tarrant Express and
LBJ Freeway) have closed during this period, several others(ChicagoMidwayAirportandFlorida’sAlligatorAlley)
have not proceeded in part because o conditions in the
nancing markets.
The table below highlights the range o capital structures
executed recently or major inrastructure projects in
the United States. As shown, gearing levels vary widely,
with one transaction completed on an all-equity basis,
two transactions in the more traditional high 80 percent
debt range, and more recent transactions involving a
70/30 gearing ratio with government grants to ll out the
unding.
A number o governments are proactively trying to ensure
that the credit crisis does not stall needed inrastructure
projects. The UK government has decided it is better to
provide additional government-backed debt nance than
to delay projects or restructure scores o scheduled PPP
transactions. Toward this end, the UK Treasury announced
in February 2009 that it will lend directly to those PrivateFinance Initiative (PFI) projects that cannot on their own
raise sucient debt nance on acceptable terms. Across
the EU, the European Investment Bank has increased
lending to ensure that signicant deals are executed.
Similarly, the U.S. Department o Transportation will
expand its TIFIA credit program or inrastructure (see
nearby box).
Variability in equity returns. In principle, the great variety
o PPP structures makes it dicult to generalize about equity
returns in the inrastructure market. For example, in some PPP
structures, reduced gearing can lead to lower equity returns.
In others, it can have the opposite eect. The dierence liesin the nature o the revenue supporting the structure. For
example, in availability payment–style structures where debt
costs are passed through to a government payor, equity
returns are stable or rising; in availability payment–style
structures where revenues are xed, equity returns are stable
or declining. That said, growing competition in the sector
should put pressure on returns over time, which could prove
problematic or some market participants who achieved
early dominance.
Table 1. A look at the capital structure o recent U.S. PPP deals
Transaction
TexasSH130
VirginiaCapitalBeltway
Chicagoparkingmeters
Florida I-595
Texas North Tarrant Express
Texas LBJ Freeway
Date
3/08
6/08
2/09
3/09
12/09
6/10
Value ($millions)
$1,360
$1,930
$1,150
$1,670
$2,051
$2,550
Debt ($millions)
$1,190
$1,180
None
$1,460
$1,050
$1,465
Grants
–
–
–
–
$573
$445
Debt/equity ratio*
87/13
61/39
0/100
87/13
71/29
70/30
*Does not include grants.
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6 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
Potential fight to quality. On the plus side o the
equity equation, there is likely to be an eventual “fight
to quality,” with investors seeking sound prospects in the
inrastructure sector, particularly i other asset classes
remain impaired until economic growth resumes. This is
particularly relevant or pension unds, since long-term
inrastructure projects are a good t or pension und
liabilities. Over the past several years, billions o dollars
have migrated to inrastructure unds — the total value o
which now ar exceeds the likely equity component o PPPprojects in the pipeline (see table 2).
Table 2. Inrastructure investors
Strategic buyers/ concessionaires
Inrastructureunds
Financialsponsors
•Traditionally,operators,developersorcontractors in the inrastructure sector•Oftenbenetfromsectoroperational
expertise, which can enhance the value otheir bids•Long-terminvestmentstrategy
•Privateorlistedequityfundsfocusedon
inrastructure investments•Strongliquidityawaitinginvestment
opportunities•Lowerequityreturnsthanfornancial
sponsors•Typicallylooktotakepartinaconsortium•Medium-tolong-terminvestmentstrategy•Fundsizesaresmallerthanfornancial
sponsors
•Privateequityfundswithshorterexit strategy•Highequityreturns(+20%)maylimitability
to bid competitively, but have been achiev-able in certain opportunities•Normallylookforshort-terminvestments
with a clear exit strategy
•Typicallylooktotakepartinaconsortium•Fundsizesrangefrom$6bnto$16bn
•Abertis•ACS•Acciona•Aecom•Bombardier•Bouygues•Brisa
•ABN-Amro
•AlindaCapital•AMPCapital•Borealis•Carlyle•Challenger•CII•CPPInvestment
Board
•Apollo•BainCapital•Blackstone•Clayton,
Dubilier & Rice
•Cintra/Ferrovial•FCC•GlobalVia•Hochtief•Kiewitt•Laing•OHL
•Colonial
•Commonwealth•EQT•GIP•GoldmanSachs•Hastings•IndustryFunds
Management•JPMorgan
•KKR•MDP•Providence
Equity
•Sacyr•Siemens•Skanska•Transurban•Veolia•Vinci•Zachry
•KKR
•Macquarie•Meridiam•MorganStanley•OntarioTeachers’•Prudential•RREEF•UBS
•ThomasH.Lee•TPG•WarburgPincus
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
In summary
Inrastructure unding and nance is in a period o fux. On
both sides o the equation — supply and demand — there
are positive and negative infuences resulting rom the
creditcrisisandgovernments’responsestoit.Howthose
infuences will settle out over time remains to be seen,
but it is clear that inrastructure needs remain pressing
the world over and that governments will struggle to
meet them, particularly on the heels o a global economic
downturn that will have deleterious scal impacts.
Given that dynamic, there should be an ongoing role or
the private sector in the development o inrastructure and
the public services delivered through it. The credit crisis
may have temporarily changed the economics o public-
private partnerships as nancial transactions, but it has
only served to highlight the need or new approaches to
solving the world’s inrastructure problem.
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8 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
1 AmericanSocietyofCivilEngineers,“2009ReportCard
or America’s Inrastructure,” January 2009
<http://www.asce.org/reportcard/2009/index.cm>.
2 JimHaughey,“SinkingWorldConstructionDemand
WillKeepCostFalling,”Reed Construction Data, April
14, 2009. <http://www.reedconstructiondata.com/
news/2009/04/sinking-world-construction-demand-will-
keep-cost-alling/>.
3 JimHaughey,“ConstructionMaterialsPriceIndex
DeclinesforSixthConsecutiveMonth,”Reed
Construction Data, April 15, 2009 <http://www.
reedconstructiondata.com/news/2009/04/construction-
materials-price-index-declines-or-sixth-consecutive-
month/>.
4 ErickM.Weiss,“BidsPourInforStateConstruction
Jobs:MoreBangfortheStimulusBuckasFirmsClamber
forContracts,”The Washington Post , April 8, 2009
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2009/04/07/AR2009040703828.html>.
5 See“ClosingtheInfrastructureGap:TheRoleofPublic-
Private Partnerships,” Deloitte Research, 2006 or more
inormation on the benets o PPP models.
Endnotes
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
About the authors
Tiany Dovey
Deloitte Services LP
Tel: +1 571 882 6247
Email: [email protected]
Tiany Dovey is a research manager with Deloitte
Research where she has responsibility or public sector
research and thought leadership. She has written
extensively on a wide range o public policy and
management issues and is the co-author o States of Transition(DeloitteResearch,2006).Herworkhas
appeared in a number o publications, including Public
CIO, Governing and Education Week . Tiany holds a
Bachelor o Arts in philosophy and public health and
community medicine rom University o Washington and
a Masters in Public Policy rom The George Washington
University.
William D. Eggers
Deloitte Services LP
Tel: +1 202 378 5292
Email: [email protected]
William D. Eggers is the Executive Director o Deloitte’s
Public Leadership Institute and the Global Director or
Deloitte Research-Public Sector where he leads the public
sector industry research program. A recognized expert
on government reorm, he is the author o numerous
books including: Governing by Network: The New Shape
of the Public Sector (Brookings, 2004), Government 2.0:
Using Technology to Improve Education, Cut Red Tape,
Reduce Gridlock , and Enhance Democracy (Rowman and
Littleeld, 2005) and States of Transition (Deloitte Research
2006).Heisthewinnerofthe2005LouisBrownlow
award or best book on public management, the 2002
APEX award or excellence in business journalism, the
1996 Roe Award or leadership and innovation in public
policy research, and the 1995 Sir Antony Fisher award
or best book promoting an understanding o the ree
economy. A ormer manager o the Texas Perormance
Review, he has advised dozens o governments around the
world.Hiscommentaryhasappearedindozensofmajor
media outlets including the New York Times and Wall
Street Journal.Hisupcomingbook,If We Can Put a Man
on the Moon…Getting Big Things Done in Government,
willbepublishedbyHarvardBusinessSchoolPressinthe
all o 2009.
Michael Flynn
Deloitte Ireland
Tel: +353 1 4172515
Email: [email protected]
MichaelFlynnisaCorporateFinancePartneratDeloitte
in Ireland and leads the Specialised Finance Practice
including Government & Inrastructure, Debt Advisory
andFinancialModellingservices.Headvisesthepublic,
private and banking sectors on inrastructure (includingPPP) and public sector related transactions in Ireland
and internationally across a variety o sectors, including
transport (roads and rail), health, education, housing,
justice, waste and energy. Michael is a member o the
Deloitte Global Inrastructure Leaders Steering Group
and supports Deloitte teams on inrastructure projects
aroundtheworld.Heisaregularcontributortoindustry
publications and presents to public and private sector
organisations on inrastructure and PPP related topics.
Irene Walsh
DeloitteCorporateFinanceLLC
Tel: +1 212 436 4620
Email: [email protected]
Irene Walsh is a Managing Director and leader o
the U.S. Inrastructure Advisory practice o Deloitte
CorporateFinanceLLC.Sheprovidesstrategicand
transactional advice to public and private sector sponsors
o inrastructure projects. Irene has more than twenty-
ve years o experience in inrastructure nance globally
across the spectrum o ratings, advisory, debt capital
markets, credit banking, project nance, and international
developmentbanking.Commencinghercareerinthe
U.S. public nance industry and then London-based ora decade, she has worked in more than hal a dozen
countries on many precedent-setting projects, most
notablyinthetransportationsector.IreneholdsanMCRP
fromHarvardUniversity’sKennedySchoolofGovernment,
and a BA in Urban Aairs rom George Washington
University.
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10 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
Jim Ziglar
DeloitteCorporateFinanceLLC
Tel: +1 212 436 7630
Email: [email protected]
JimZiglarisaSeniorVicePresidentintheInfrastructure
AdvisorypracticeofDeloitteCorporateFinanceLLC.
Hefocusesonadvisinggovernmentandprivatesector
entities on the structuring, execution and operation o
infrastructurepublicprivatepartnerships.Hehasmore
than teen years o experience in U.S. municipal nance,
strategicconsulting,andmarketingandCRMconsulting.
Prior to joining Deloitte, Jim worked at a bulge-bracket
investment bank where he served U.S. municipalities as an
investment banker and derivatives marketer. Jim has broad
experience in helping municipalities meet their nancial
challenges and und inrastructure and other projects
through traditional and creative structured nancing
solutions. Jim has an MBA in Finance and Strategic
Management rom the Wharton School, University o
Pennsylvania, and a BA in Economics rom Yale University.
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
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•Changing Lanes:AddressingAmerica’sCongestion
Problems Through Road User Pricing•Mastering Finance in Government: Transorming
the Government Enterprise Through Better Financial
Management
•One Size Fits Few:UsingCustomerInsightto
Transorm Government
•Bolstering Human Capital: HowthePublicSector
CanBeattheComingTalentCrisis
•Serving the Aging Citizen
• Closing America’s Inrastructure Gap: The Role o
Public-Private Partnerships
• Closing the Inrastructure Gap: The Role o Public-
Private Partnerships
•States o Transition: Tackling Government’s ToughestPolicyandManagementChallenges
•Building Flexibility: New Models or Public
Inrastructure Projects
• Pushing the Boundaries: Making a Success o Local
Government Reorganization
•Governing Forward: New Directions or Public
Leadership
• Paying or Tomorrow: Practical Strategies or Tackling
thePublicPensionCrisis
•Medicaid Makeover: Six Tough (and Unavoidable)
ChoicesontheRoadtoReform
•Driving More Money into the Classroom: The
Promise o Shared Services• Are We There Yet:ARoadmapforIntegratingHealth
andHumanServices
•Government 2.0: Using Technology to Improve
Education,CutRedTape,ReduceGridlock,andEnhance
Democracy (Rowman and Littleeld, 2005)
•Governing by Network: The New Shape o the Public
Sector (Brookings, 2004)
•Prospering in the Secure Economy
•Combating Gridlock:HowPricingRoadUseCanEase
Congestion
•Citizen Advantage: Enhancing Economic
CompetitivenessthroughE-Government
•Cutting Fat, Adding Muscle: The Power oInormation in Addressing Budget Shortalls
•Show Me the Money:Cost-CuttingSolutionsfor
Cash-StrappedStates
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12 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
Contacts
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12 Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure unding and nance
The ollowing individuals represent the contacts or the Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu mem-
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Deloitte Research – The changing landscape or inrastructure undingand nance
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14 Deloitte Research The changing landscape or inrastr ct re nding and nance
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