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The Changing Mix of What Sells in Print - Jonathan Nowell, Nielsen Book

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  • January 2015

    THE CHANGING MIX OF WHAT SELLS IN PRINT: HOW EBOOKS HAVE

    CHANGED THE PRINT BOOK MARKETPLACE

    JONATHAN NOWELL NIELSEN BOOK PRESIDENT

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    AGENDA

    Broad genre shifts Format impacts Ebooks by genre Fiction Non-Fiction Juvenile The bookstore of the future

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    US GENRE BREAKDOWN Juvenile has grown from 23% to 37% of total market

    Nielsen BookScan

    45%

    32%

    23%

    2004

    Total AdultNon-Fiction

    Total AdultFiction

    Total Juvenile

    41%

    31%

    28%

    2009

    Total AdultNon-Fiction

    Total AdultFiction

    Total Juvenile

    40%

    23%

    37%

    2014

    Total AdultNon-Fiction

    Total AdultFiction

    Total Juvenile

    650 million 635 million

    770 million

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    UK GENRE BREAKDOWN Childrens has grown from 24% to 35% of total market

    Nielsen BookScan

    44%

    32%

    24%

    2004

    Adult Non-Fiction

    Adult Fiction

    Children's

    38%

    34%

    28%

    2010

    Adult Non-Fiction

    Adult Fiction

    Children's

    37%

    28%

    35%

    2014

    Adult Non-Fiction

    Adult Fiction

    Children's

    204 million 181 million

    229 million

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    Adult Fiction

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    Mill

    ion

    s

    Mass Market Pbk

    Trade Paperback

    Hardback

    PRINT BOOKS BY FORMAT In Adult Fiction, hardback sales down less than paperback since 2009

    Adult Non-Fiction

    Nielsen BookScan

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    Mill

    ion

    s

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    Quarterly ebook sales by genre

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    20

    10

    Q1

    20

    10

    Q2

    20

    10

    Q3

    20

    10

    Q4

    20

    11

    Q1

    20

    11

    Q2

    20

    11

    Q3

    20

    11

    Q4

    20

    12

    Q1

    20

    12

    Q2

    20

    12

    Q3

    20

    12

    Q4

    20

    13

    Q1

    20

    13

    Q2

    20

    13

    Q3

    20

    13

    Q4

    20

    14

    Q1

    20

    14

    Q2

    20

    14

    Q3

    Mill

    ion

    s

    Religious Fiction

    Bibles

    Juvenile Non-Fiction

    Other

    Religion Non-Fiction

    Juvenile Fiction

    Non-Fiction

    Fiction

    US EBOOKS BY BROAD SECTOR In latest quarter, adult fiction accounts for 65% of ebook sales

    PubTrack Digital US

  • FICTION

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    Adult Fiction by category, volume sales

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mill

    ion

    s

    Western

    Action Adventure

    Occult/Psychological/Horror

    Science Fiction

    Religion

    Fantasy

    Classics

    Graphic Novels

    Mystery/Detective

    Suspense/Thrillers

    Romance

    General Fiction

    LONG TERM CHANGE IN US FICTION Comparing Fiction in print in the pre- and post-ebook world

    Nielsen BookScan

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    FICTION TRENDS IN TOP CATEGORIES Fantasy has seen largest decline since 2009

    Nielsen BookScan

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mill

    ion

    s

    General Fiction

    Romance

    Suspense/Thrillers

    Mystery/Detective

    Graphic Novels

    Fantasy

    -46%

    -20%

    -30%

    -40%

    -27% -58%

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    24%

    10%

    10%

    9% 6% 6%

    6%

    5%

    4%

    3%

    1% 1%

    0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

    0%

    0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

    2014

    Romance

    Mystery & Detective

    Thrillers

    Suspense

    Literary

    Fantasy

    General

    Contemporary Women

    FICTION EBOOKS BY CATEGORY Romance started off as highest in the format and has just gotten bigger over the years

    19%

    13%

    15% 6% 6%

    8%

    8%

    3%

    4%

    3% 1%

    1% 0%

    4% 0%

    2%

    1% 1%

    0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

    2010

    Share of fiction ebook sales, volume

    PubTrack Digital US

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    US volume sales, adult fiction

    THREE MAINSTAY FICTION AUTHORS Have ebooks affected their print sales?

    Nielsen BookScan/PubTrack Digital US

    Aggregated unit data for three mainstay (consistent annual output over the long term).

    Pre-ebook print 3 years 2008 2010

    Post-ebook print 3 years 2012 2014

    ebook 3 years 2012 2014

  • NON-FICTION

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    Adult Non-Fiction by category, volume sales

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mill

    ion

    s

    House & Home/Gardening

    Computers

    Humor

    Art/Architecture/Design/Photography

    Travel

    Performing Arts

    Crafts/Hobbies/Antiques/Games

    Self Help

    History/Law/Political Science

    Cooking/Entertaining

    Business/Economics

    Health/Fitness/Medicine/Sports

    Biography/Autobiography/Memoir

    General Non-Fiction

    Reference

    Religion/Bibles

    DECLINE IN US NON-FICTION LED BY REFERENCE Market decline pre-dates ebook transition

    Nielsen BookScan

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    SINCE 2007

    Nielsen BookScan

    Travel 50%

    Reference

    37%

    Religion/Bibles

    43%

    Cooking/Entertaining 11%

  • JUVENILE

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    All Juvenile by category, volume sales

    IN SPITE OF POST-2009 DIP, JUVENILE SALES UP! 2014 had highest reported sales since records began

    Nielsen BookScan

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    Mill

    ion

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    Social Situations/Family/Health (NF)

    Concepts (NF)

    Holidays/Festivals/Religion (NF)

    Biographies/Autobiographies

    Animals (NF)

    Education/Reference/Language

    Holidays/Festivals/Religion

    Concepts

    Animals

    Classics

    History/Sports/People/Places (NF)

    Games/Activities/Hobbies

    History/Sports/People/Places

    Social Situations/Family/Health

    Science Fiction/Fantasy/Magic

    General

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