The climate change The climate change program in LACprogram in LAC

Use of the earth simulatorUse of the earth simulator

Walter VergaraWalter Vergara

January 17, 2008January 17, 2008

Climate change strategy in Climate change strategy in Latin AmericaLatin America

a) To support low carbon economic growth, in a) To support low carbon economic growth, in particular for the energy and transport sectors, particular for the energy and transport sectors, which represent the bulk of emissions in the which represent the bulk of emissions in the region and promote avoidance of region and promote avoidance of deforestation; deforestation;

b) To support the process of adaptation, b) To support the process of adaptation, focused on key vulnerabilities as identified focused on key vulnerabilities as identified under the national communications process to under the national communications process to the UNFCCC; and the UNFCCC; and

c) to support the linkages between knowledge c) to support the linkages between knowledge and capacity building and decision making. and capacity building and decision making.

2005 Hurricane season in the 2005 Hurricane season in the Caribbean basinCaribbean basin

Shortcut to atlantic_hurricanes_2005_sm.mpg.lnk

Source: Bradley , Vuille, Diaz and Vergara, Science, 2006

Limited data Limited data

South North

*Mean of 8 GCM simulations from IPCC 4th Assessment using scenario A2

Mountain peaks

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Projected change in temperature* (1990-99) to (2090-99)along the American Cordillera, from Alaska to Chile

A temperature increase of 4A temperature increase of 4oo C is C is anticipated to lead to a collapse of the anticipated to lead to a collapse of the Amazon Rainforest Ecosystem (Brazil, Amazon Rainforest Ecosystem (Brazil,

Colombia, Bolivia)Colombia, Bolivia)

Carbon finance in LACCarbon finance in LAC

In Latin America:In Latin America: Fifty two projects in preparationFifty two projects in preparation Seventeen emission reduction contractsSeventeen emission reduction contracts Renewable energy (solar, eolic, geothermal)Renewable energy (solar, eolic, geothermal) Waste management (landfill gas, wastewaterWaste management (landfill gas, wastewater

treatment)treatment) TransportTransport Carbon sinks (reforestation, avoided Carbon sinks (reforestation, avoided

deforestation)deforestation) Others (industrial gases)Others (industrial gases)

Access to information and Access to information and linking science to developmentlinking science to development Support the institutional framework for the Support the institutional framework for the

implementation of the UNFCC mandatesimplementation of the UNFCC mandates Provide a bridge between science and Provide a bridge between science and

developmentdevelopment Meteorological Research Institute (Japan)Meteorological Research Institute (Japan) National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD, Pool of glaciology institutes (Insbruck, IRD,

UMASS)UMASS) Japanese Space Agency (Japan)Japanese Space Agency (Japan) Georgia Tech University (USA)Georgia Tech University (USA) NOAA (USA)NOAA (USA)

Four points on adaptationFour points on adaptation

Ecosystem approach (rather than Ecosystem approach (rather than economic sectors)economic sectors)

Trends vs variability ( avoids noise and Trends vs variability ( avoids noise and unreliability)unreliability)

Pilots means pilots (no money for large Pilots means pilots (no money for large schemes)schemes)

Moral hazard (borrowing for adaptation Moral hazard (borrowing for adaptation means rich energy intensive societies means rich energy intensive societies have passed on the bill?)have passed on the bill?)

• Building Awareness.• Building monitoring and analysis

capability • Building planning capacity in

institutions

• Developing national policy framework for adaptation.• Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities. • Preparation of pilot adaptation projects.• Further strengthening of awareness andparticipation.• Further strengthening of knowledge base

Building awarenessand strengthening

knowledge base

Creating an enablingenvironment for

adaptationCPACCCPACC

MACCMACC

• Policy framework for adaptation in place• Projects being implemented.• Awareness and participation high.• Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning.

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

Implementation

PublicAwareness

and Participation

PolicyInstitutions

KnowledgeBase

AdaptationAdaptation

Adaptation measures in coastal zones Adaptation measures in coastal zones of the West Indies (SPA-US$7 m)of the West Indies (SPA-US$7 m)

Measures addressing impacts of climate change Measures addressing impacts of climate change on coastal areason coastal areas. .

Water water desalinization using wind energy for Water water desalinization using wind energy for the Islands of Bequia and Union (St. Vincent & the the Islands of Bequia and Union (St. Vincent & the Grenadines)Grenadines)

Strengthened critical coastal infrastructure in the Strengthened critical coastal infrastructure in the Castries area (St. Lucia). Castries area (St. Lucia).

Recovery and accretion of coral reefs (St. Lucia).Recovery and accretion of coral reefs (St. Lucia). Climate resilient management plan for national Climate resilient management plan for national

parks (Dominica)parks (Dominica) Approved: Sept 6, 2006 Approved: Sept 6, 2006

Colombia: Integrated National Colombia: Integrated National Adaptation Plan (US$15 m-SPA)Adaptation Plan (US$15 m-SPA)

Pilot adaptation measures focused on:Pilot adaptation measures focused on:

High altitude moorlands (water regulation, High altitude moorlands (water regulation, carbon storage, hydro-energy)carbon storage, hydro-energy)

Riparian belts, reforestation, habitat Riparian belts, reforestation, habitat conservationconservation

Increased exposure to Malaria and DengueIncreased exposure to Malaria and Dengue Strengthen detection and prevention Strengthen detection and prevention

programs and infrastructureprograms and infrastructure

Approved: April 11, 2006Approved: April 11, 2006

Adaptation to climate impacts in Adaptation to climate impacts in Glaciarized basins (Bolivia, Ecuador Glaciarized basins (Bolivia, Ecuador

Peru)- SCCF, $32 millionPeru)- SCCF, $32 million Water supply Water supply

Development of alternative sourcesDevelopment of alternative sources Demand managementDemand management Engineered storageEngineered storage

Energy supplyEnergy supply Diversification of supplyDiversification of supply

AgricultureAgriculture Alternative crops, Alternative crops, Advanced irrigation systemsAdvanced irrigation systems

Scheduled for Board approval March 08Scheduled for Board approval March 08

Mexico: Gulf Coast Wetlands– Mexico: Gulf Coast Wetlands– US$28m-SCCF US$28m-SCCF

Assess climate impact on national water budget Assess climate impact on national water budget assessmentassessment

Address impacts from subsidence and salination on Address impacts from subsidence and salination on

the Gulf Coast of Mexicothe Gulf Coast of Mexico:: Restoration of natural surface drainageRestoration of natural surface drainage Rationalization of water useRationalization of water use Regeneration of soil coverRegeneration of soil cover New set asidesNew set asides

Scheduled for GEF approval byScheduled for GEF approval by

June 08June 08

Figure 2. Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands to Sea Level Rise

Source: Ortiz Pérez y Méndez Linares. 1999.1

1 Ortiz Pérez, M.A. y A. P. Méndez Linares. 1999. Repercusiones por ascenso del nivel del mar en el litoral del Golfo de México. En: Gay García, C. (Editor y Compilador) México: una visión hacia el siglo XXI. El cambio climático en México.

Combining adaptation and Combining adaptation and mitigationmitigation

Nariva ecosystem restoration in Nariva ecosystem restoration in

Trinidad (CF: E$2m; CCIG: $0.5 m). Trinidad (CF: E$2m; CCIG: $0.5 m). Restore natural drainageRestore natural drainage Restore soil coverRestore soil cover Prevent firesPrevent fires

A restored coastal ecosystem:A restored coastal ecosystem: Will:Will:

promote carbon sinks promote carbon sinks protect biodiversity protect biodiversity provide buffer to storm surges provide buffer to storm surges

Earth SimulatorEarth Simulator

Scope of the Cooperation. Scope of the Cooperation. training in Japan to enabletraining in Japan to enable efficient use of ES dataefficient use of ES data technical assistance technical assistance to interpret resultsto interpret results scientific exchangescientific exchange cooperation for disseminationcooperation for dissemination of results in scientific literatureof results in scientific literature data storagedata storage feedback to ES for better feedback to ES for better future simulation at regionalfuture simulation at regional levellevel

ArchitectureArchitecture 40 Teraflops!!!!!!!!!40 Teraflops!!!!!!!!! 20 x 20 km grid resolution20 x 20 km grid resolution Future 5 x 5 km grid resolutionFuture 5 x 5 km grid resolution

Time slice experimentTime slice experiment

Numerical methods and Numerical methods and runsruns

The unified model utilizes: • Semi-Lagrangian

integration scheme • Short-Wave

Parameterization by Shibata & Uchiyama

• Long-Wave Parameterization by Shibata & Aoki

• Cumulous Parameterization by Arakawa & Schubert

• In clouds, consideration of large-scale condensation, cumulus, and stratocumulus

• Parameterization of the boundary layer: 2-level closed system of Mellor & Yamada

AGCM developed jointly by the Center for Cli-mate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo and the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Sci-ences (NIES). The particular version of the CCSR/NIES AGCM has been used for several international modeling ef-forts, including future projections for the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC, SRES) and the Atmos-pheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP).

Second stage MOU with MRISecond stage MOU with MRI

Add Amazon basin simulation Add Amazon basin simulation Add extreme events medium termAdd extreme events medium term Add 5 by 5 km resolutionAdd 5 by 5 km resolution Extend MOU by 5 additional years (to Extend MOU by 5 additional years (to

2012)2012) Estimated value of MOU: US$10 millionEstimated value of MOU: US$10 million Estimated Bank contributions: US$1 Estimated Bank contributions: US$1

million million

Figure 3. Field of pressure at sea level during the southern hemisphere summer, simulated by the high-resolution Japanese model MRI-JMA TL959L60

Net reduction in precipitation during winter Net reduction in precipitation during winter months projected through the use of the months projected through the use of the

Earth SimulatorEarth Simulator

Usando el simulador de la tierra, escenario A1B para finales de siglo XXI

Figure 16. Changes in the number of days per year with tropical nights (Tmin 25°C)

Figure 14. Changes in the maximum number of consecutive dry days

Comparison of actual (average 1961-1990 data from Comparison of actual (average 1961-1990 data from 685 weather stations) vs modeled isothermals (run AM 685 weather stations) vs modeled isothermals (run AM

from the Earth Simulator) from the Earth Simulator) and future temperatures and future temperatures (2080-2099)(2080-2099)

Source: (IDEAM report on activities under Partnership MRI-WB, 2006)

Figure 7. Comparison of seasonal cycle observed with AJ and AM simulation runs for Gaviotas

Figure 10. Skill of high-resolution Japanese model in the Mantaro River Basin

Station: Ccatca ( 3729 msnm)

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Station: Lircay ( 3553 msnm)

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Station: G.Kayra ( 3695 msnm)

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Figure 11. Spatial distribution of precipitation for February (summer): a) observed; b) AJ scenarios (present model); c) AK scenario (future model); and d) AK-AJ

Figure 18. Indexes of extreme precipitation events: a) days of intense precipitation; and b) maximum number of consecutive dry days

Figure 1. Antisana Microcatchments–Case Study

A comprehensive climate change program needs to tackle A comprehensive climate change program needs to tackle besides adaptation and mitigation, links between information besides adaptation and mitigation, links between information and decision makingand decision making

There are many science and knowledge institutions eager to There are many science and knowledge institutions eager to work with the Bank on this issuework with the Bank on this issue

Better understanding of impacts requires of strong Better understanding of impacts requires of strong observational networks and a view on direction and intensity observational networks and a view on direction and intensity of trendsof trends

The use of the Earth Simulator has facilitated the The use of the Earth Simulator has facilitated the visualization of these trends visualization of these trends

Combined with other tools and methods, the information Combined with other tools and methods, the information provided has been of support to the formulation of adaptation provided has been of support to the formulation of adaptation strategiesstrategies