73
IDC Market Update
| Date post: | 07-Nov-2014 |
| Category: |
Technology |
| Upload: | rinky25 |
| View: | 835 times |
| Download: | 1 times |
IDC Market Update
AgendaAgenda
IDC Overall GDP And IT Economic Update
IDC Worldwide Server Forecasts
IDC HPC Market Update Current Market Dynamics HPC Forecast IDC’s View on High Growth and Low Growth
Segments Summary
IDC
Overall GDP And
IT Economic Update
The Downturn’s Impact On ITThe Downturn’s Impact On IT
John GantzIDC Chief Research Officer
4.0%
1.8%
3.8%
0.2%
3.3%
2.7%
4.1%
3.8%
2.9%
3.8%
3.8%
3.1%
2.5%2.4%
1.7%
2.9%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
June 08 Forecast
October 08 Forecast
January 09 Forecast
Source: IMF, Consensus Economics, Inc., EIU
An Economic Shock: Worldwide GDP ForecastAn Economic Shock: Worldwide GDP Forecast
5
An Economic Unknown: Government ActionsAn Economic Unknown: Government Actions
6
$1-3 Trillion ForBank BailoutsTax CutsInfrastructureSMB IncentivesHealth CareSmart GridAuto ManufacturersGreen Building
Impact on ITImpact on IT
7
New Downside Scenario: It May Go Lower In 2009
-7.1%
-8.6%
-1.0%
-4.5%
-1.2%
3.3% 3.4%
-7.0%
1.1%
-1.8%
-15.7%
-16.9%
-9.6% -9.5%
February 09 Post Crisis Forecast
February 09 Downside
Source: IDC Q3 2008 Worldwide Black Books; IDC Scenario Estimates
PCs Servers
Storage Printers Networking Softwar
eServices
2009 Worldwide IT Spending
3.2%
2.3% 2.2% 2.1%
5.0%4.5%
2.8%3.5%
-1.0%
3.4%3.3%
-1.2%
-7.1%
-8.6%
PCs Servers Storage Networks Software IT Services Telecom Svs
2009 2010
Source: IDC Q4 2008 Worldwide Black Book
Global IT Spending
9
The New IT Budgets: Recovery in 2010The New IT Budgets: Recovery in 2010
Short Term Hot and Cold SpotsShort Term Hot and Cold Spots
10
HotSearch & Discovery
Security Management
Mobile Data
Business Analytics
IT Outsourcing & BPO
SaaS
Internet Advertising
Virtual Machine SW
Metro WDM/Wi-max
Storage Replication
ColdCommodity Hardware
Project Based Consulting
Mobile Voice
IT Training
Finance & Accounting
ERP
Sales Force Automation
Manufacturing SW
DSL
Large Enterprise IT
WatchLocation Based Services
Real Time Analytics
Virtualization Mgt SW
Ethical Hacking
IP Surveillance
Smart Grid
Video Search
Chipless RFID
Reputation Mgt SW
MPOG Virtual Artifacts
Essential GuidanceEssential Guidance
The leading edge technology users will use the downturn to pull further ahead
Using IT as a competitive weapon
Opportunity will come from feeding/riding the technology transitions
Government actions will create new opportunities
But will change frequently and will vary by country
11
IDC Worldwide
Server Forecasts
Computing Infrastructure TrendsComputing Infrastructure Trends
Matt EastwoodGroup Vice PresidentEnterprise Platforms Research
April 2009
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Q408 YOY Growth
4Q Rolling Spending
Source: IDC Quarterly Server Forecast. March 2009
WW Server Forecast:This is a Market ResetWW Server Forecast:This is a Market Reset
YOY Revenue Growth
4Q Rolling Spending ($M)
-$15B-25%
15
Worldwide Server Market, 1996-2010Worldwide Server Market, 1996-2010
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Other
IBM Host
Unix
x86
105% of market growth was in x86 spending
+$16 B
-$3.0B
-$8.6B
-$10.7B
‘97-’08Change
Revenue ($M)
55%
31%
16%
23%
32%
45%
14%
16
Server Capability (and Density) SoarsServer Capability (and Density) Soars
Total Server CPUs and Cores
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Annual Cores Shipping
Annual CPUs Shipping
Total Server CPUs and Cores
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Annual Cores Shipping
Annual CPUs Shipping0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Annual Cores ShippingAnnual Cores Shipping
Annual CPUs ShippingAnnual CPUs Shipping
17
Market Segments Continue to ShiftMarket Segments Continue to Shift
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2004 2008 2012
% Server Spend
77% 65%
14%19%
9% 16% Mega Datacenters
– Homogeneous– Dense/Low Cost
Small Site (SMB/Branch)– Low Cost– Ease of deployment– Ease of management
Enterprise Datacenter– Heterogeneous– Legacy / Complex– Consolidating Quickly
Mega Datacenter
Enterprise Datacenter
Small Site (SMB/Branch)
The Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2009The Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2009
1 The HPC Market Will Dip in 2009 But Will Remain A Bright Spot in the IT Space
2 HPC Storage Will Increasingly Outpace the HPC Server Market
3 The Petaflop Club Will Gain More Members
4 HPC Supply Chain Use Will Become a Metric For Industrial Competitiveness
5 Power and Cooling Will See Lots of Innovation But No Major Breakthroughs
6 Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars
7 Standard Products Will Grow, But More Codes Will See Retrograde Performance
8 The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase
9 Software Licensing Costs Will Become a More Universal Chokepoint
10 Ease-of-Everything Will Gain Ground At the Low End and Beyond
IDC HPC
Market Update
Top Trends in HPCTop Trends in HPC
The global economy is impacting all HPC segments
HPC declined -3% for 2008 overall 2009 is projected to decline -5.4%
– A major change from the 19% yearly growth over the previous 4 years
We are forecasting 3% growth for the next 5 years– Growth starting in 2010
Major challenges for datacenters: Power, cooling, real estate, system management Storage and data management continue to grow in importance
Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems
2008 HPC Server Market Results2008 HPC Server Market Results
T A B L E 2
Worldwide High- Performance Technical Systems Market Forecasts, Revenue, Units and ASP, by Quarter for 2008
1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 Full Year 2008
Yearly Growth 2007/2008
Revenue $M $2,322 $2,542 $2,412 $2,496 $9,772 -3.0%
Quarter-over-Quarter Change -15.5% 9.5% -5.1% 3.5%
Units 48,296 45,485 44,304 36,006 174,091 -24.5%
ASP $000 $48.1 $55.9 $54.4 $69.3 $56.1 28.5%
Source: IDC, 2009
HPC Server Market Size By Competitive Segments (2008 Data)HPC Server Market Size By Competitive Segments (2008 Data)
Departmental ($250K - $100K)
$3.7B
Divisional ($250K - $500K)
$1.4B
Supercomputers(Over $500K)
$2.7B
Workgroup(under $100K)
$2.0B
HPC Servers $9.77B
Vendor HPC Market Shares In 2008:All HPC SegmentsVendor HPC Market Shares In 2008:All HPC Segments
Source IDC, 2009
HP36.5%
Cray2.2%
Dell15.9%
IBM26.5%
Dawning0.8%
Bull0.4%
SGI1.6%
NEC0.8%
Fujitsu0.5%
Sun4.8%
Appro0.8%
Hitachi0.1%
Other9.1%
Total HPC Revenue by Processor TypeTotal HPC Revenue by Processor Type
Source IDC, 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HP
C R
ev
en
ue
Sh
are
by
P
roc
es
so
r Ty
pe
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Other
Vector
PROP
EPIC
RISC
X86
Total HPC Revenue by OS Total HPC Revenue by OS
Source IDC, 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
HP
C R
ev
en
ue
by
O/S
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Other
W/NT
Linux
Unix
Growth In HPC ClustersGrowth In HPC Clusters
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Q10
3Q
203
Q30
3Q
403
Q10
4Q
204
Q30
4Q
404
Q10
5Q
205
Q30
5Q
405
Q10
6Q
206
Q30
6Q
406
Q10
7Q
207
Q30
7Q
407
Q10
8Q
208
Q30
8Q
408
Rev
enu
e ($
K)
cluster
non-cluster
Why is Commodity Hot? .. Price!Why is Commodity Hot? .. Price!
ASP ($K)Ave.CPUs / System $K / CPU CPUs / $M
x86 50.7 21 2.4 419
RISC 98.3 10 9.5 105
EPIC 55.9 7 7.6 131
Vector 873.4 12 73.6 14
Source IDC, 2009
Cluster Vendor Market Shares, 2008Cluster Vendor Market Shares, 2008
SGI1.0%
Dell24.4%
HP32.4%
IBM20.5%
Sun4.4%
Bull0.7%
Fujitsu0.3%
Appro1.2%
Dawning1.2%
Other14.0%
Source IDC, 2009
IDC HPC
Market Forecasts
Major Forecast AssumptionsMajor Forecast Assumptions
Macroeconomic turmoil will slow the global economy, reducing overall IT and HPC server spending
HPC server sales will show a significant decline extending through mid-to-late 2009, but not as severe as the overall server market High-end of the market will be more resilient to the
general economic condition than other segments Mid-to-low end of the market will still lag the
enterprise profile, but will follow it more closely than before
Clusters will continue its penetration into HPC
Major Forecast AssumptionsMajor Forecast Assumptions
We expect to see different impacts in different industries Automotive and Financial sectors will hurt the
most in the near term, expect rebound in 2010 Energy sector will see stronger spending in search
for alternative resources Bio-life science will show flat to moderate growth Gaming/movie sector will spend at healthy rate Government, Defense and Universities will present
flat to moderate growth Green IT will slowly have more impact on
procurement decisions Petascale initiatives around the world will drive up
sales in high-end of the market
New HPC Forecast on Revenue, Units, ASP, 2007 – 2013New HPC Forecast on Revenue, Units, ASP, 2007 – 2013
T A B L E 3
Worldwide High- Performance Technical Systems Market Forecast by Revenue, Units and ASP, 2007 - 2013
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR (07-13)
New Base Forecast
Revenue $M $10,076 $9,772 $9,244 $9,965 $10,818 $11,860 $12,788 4.1%
Year-over-year Change
-3.0% -5.4% 7.8% 8.6% 9.6% 7.8%
Units 230,724 174,091 159,491 182,045 214,447 248,306 274,413 2.9%
ASP $000 $43.7 $56.1 $58.0 $54.7 $50.4 $47.8 $46.6 1.1%
Source: IDC, 2009
Forecast Comparison on HPC Revenue, Pre & Post Crisis, 2007 – 2013Forecast Comparison on HPC Revenue, Pre & Post Crisis, 2007 – 2013
New HPC Revenue ($M) Base Case Forecasts, 2007 – 2013, By Competitive Segment New HPC Revenue ($M) Base Case Forecasts, 2007 – 2013, By Competitive Segment
Competitve Segment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR (07-13)
Workgroup $2,400 $1,961 $1,731 $1,871 $2,038 $2,461 $2,682 1.9%
Departmental $3,384 $3,710 $3,618 $3,960 $4,419 $4,713 $5,099 7.1%
Divisional $1,610 $1,415 $1,318 $1,378 $1,503 $1,640 $1,775 1.6%
Supercomputer $2,682 $2,686 $2,577 $2,757 $2,858 $3,046 $3,233 3.2%
Total $10,076 $9,772 $9,244 $9,965 $10,818 $11,860 $12,788 4.1%
Source: IDC, 2009
Down Side Forecasts ($M), 2007 – 2013, By Competitive Segment Down Side Forecasts ($M), 2007 – 2013, By Competitive Segment
Competitive Segment 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 CAGR (07-13)
Workgroup $2,400 $1,961 $1,625 $1,673 $1,885 $2,137 $2,308 -0.6%
Departmental $3,384 $3,710 $3,642 $3,435 $3,958 $3,969 $4,287 4.0%
Divisional $1,610 $1,415 $1,146 $1,233 $1,414 $1,425 $1,539 -0.7%
Supercomputer $2,682 $2,686 $2,138 $2,466 $2,167 $2,646 $2,858 1.1%
Total $10,076 $9,772 $8,550 $8,807 $9,423 $10,177 $10,991 1.5%
Source: IDC, 2009
NEW HPC Application/Industry Forecasts, 2007 - 2013NEW HPC Application/Industry Forecasts, 2007 - 2013
Application Segment 2007 2013 CAGR(07-13)
Bio-Sciences $1,530,197 $1,781,031 2.6%
CAE $1,225,638 $1,562,311 4.1%
Chemical Engineering $256,033 $260,900 0.3%
DCC & Distribution $575,608 $835,046 6.4%
Economics/Financial $305,032 $421,115 5.5%
EDA $741,054 $948,920 4.2%
Geosciences and Geo-engineering $587,074 $807,039 5.4%
Mechanical Design and Drafting $125,891 $98,205 -4.1%
Defense $919,574 $1,186,212 4.3%
Government Lab $1,440,837 $1,863,896 4.4%
University/Academic $1,867,560 $2,337,419 3.8%
Weather $393,261 $545,329 5.6%
Other $108,663 $140,644 4.4%
Total Revenue $10,076,423 $12,788,066 4.1%Source: IDC, 2009
IDC View On
High Growth vs.
Low Growth
Segments For 2009
Color Coding Scheme Color Coding Scheme
Dark Green = Best growth, -2% to positive growth in 2009
Light Green = Limited decline, -3% to -8% growth in 2009
Yellow = Caution, declining, -9% to -14% growth in 2009
Red = Larger decline, -15% or lower growth in 2009
Supercomputers By Application/Industry SegmentsSupercomputers By Application/Industry Segments
Worldwide Technical Supercomputer System Forecast by Revenue, Units and ASP
2007 2008 2009
Total Revenue $K 2,682,391 2,588,106 2,483,168 -4%Units 1,841 1,737 1,591 -8%ASP $000 1,457 1,490 1,560 5%Source: IDC March 2009
WW High-Performance Supercomputer System Revenue by Applications
2007 2008 2009
Bio-Sciences $445,485 $390,804 $340,194 -13%CAE $311,157 $256,223 $213,552 -17%Chemical Engineering $41,829 $40,103 $34,764 -13%DCC & Distribution $83,147 $81,088 $78,629 -3%Economics/Financial $49,950 $43,998 $40,972 -7%EDA $66,989 $60,117 $49,663 -17%Geosciences and Geo-engineering $142,957 $146,432 $134,091 -8%Mechanical Design and Drafting $0 $0 $0 N/ADefense $350,170 $349,394 $352,610 1%Government Lab $491,619 $515,033 $531,398 3%University/Academic $566,486 $574,560 $576,095 0%Weather $122,499 $121,641 $121,813 0%Other $10,104 $8,714 $9,385 8%Total Revenue $2,682,391 $2,588,106 $2,483,168 -4%Source: IDC March 2009
Divisional By Application/Industry SegmentsDivisional By Application/Industry Segments
Worldwide Technical Divisional Systems Forecast by Revenue, Units and ASP
2007 2008 2009
Revenue $K 1,609,819 1,367,676 1,273,778 -7%Units 4,721 3,423 3,136 -8%ASP $000 $341 $400 $406 2%Source: IDC March 2009
WW Technical Divisional Systems Revenue by Applications
2007 2008 2009
Bio-Sciences $226,924 $190,107 $169,413 -11%CAE $227,527 $188,739 $160,496 -15%Chemical Engineering $48,714 $39,960 $35,887 -10%DCC & Distribution $94,420 $83,032 $79,953 -4%Economics/Financial $42,808 $39,198 $34,392 -12%EDA $106,173 $86,164 $75,153 -13%Geosciences and Geo-engineering $121,632 $102,576 $94,260 -8%Mechanical Design and Drafting $25,974 $20,441 $17,523 -14%Defense $139,066 $120,111 $113,694 -5%Government Lab $211,264 $192,842 $189,793 -2%University/Academic $254,500 $220,196 $215,269 -2%Weather $84,367 $69,751 $65,301 -6%Other $26,451 $14,559 $22,646 56%Total Revenue $1,609,819 $1,367,676 $1,273,778 -7%Source: IDC March 2009
Departmental By Application/Industry SegmentsDepartmental By Application/Industry Segments
Worldwide Technical Deaprtmental Forecast by Revenue, Units and ASP
2007 2008 2009
Revenue $K 3,384,308 3,676,436 3,590,519 -2%Units 23,835 22,082 20,230 -8%ASP $000 $142 $166 $177 7%Source: IDC March 2009
WW Technical Departmental Revenue by Applications
2007 2008 2009
Bio-Sciences $468,379 $481,613 $452,405 -6%CAE $396,971 $426,467 $373,414 -12%Chemical Engineering $104,864 $110,248 $104,090 -6%DCC & Distribution $253,110 $283,666 $285,541 1%Economics/Financial $137,185 $143,381 $129,259 -10%EDA $342,371 $361,407 $342,689 -5%Geosciences and Geo-engineering $212,748 $228,745 $221,087 -3%Mechanical Design and Drafting $46,732 $49,658 $47,415 -5%Defense $230,778 $250,582 $244,612 -2%Government Lab $423,839 $466,907 $473,948 2%University/Academic $612,731 $672,788 $678,608 1%Weather $117,249 $130,039 $129,606 0%Other $37,350 $70,936 $107,844 52%Total Revenue $3,384,308 $3,676,436 $3,590,519 -2%Source: IDC March 2009
Workgroup By Application/Industry SegmentsWorkgroup By Application/Industry SegmentsWorldwide Technical Workgroup Forecast by Revenue, Units and ASP
2007 2008 2009
Revenue $K 2,399,905 2,021,770 1,785,208 -12%Units 200,327 157,363 144,166 -8%ASP $000 $12 $13 $12 -4%Source: IDC March 2009
WW Technical Workgroup Revenue by Applications
2007 2008 2009
Bio-Sciences $386,092 $295,178 $255,285 -14%CAE $312,968 $256,765 $205,299 -20%Chemical Engineering $64,659 $54,828 $48,727 -11%DCC & Distribution $158,726 $139,502 $132,105 -5%Economics/Financial $87,933 $72,784 $57,127 -22%EDA $206,064 $169,598 $146,224 -14%Geosciences and Geo-engineering $108,339 $90,210 $80,334 -11%Mechanical Design and Drafting $57,208 $47,575 $41,462 -13%Defense $196,198 $173,872 $160,669 -8%Government Lab $295,672 $252,721 $230,292 -9%University/Academic $414,111 $357,853 $330,263 -8%Weather $70,066 $62,675 $54,540 -13%Other $41,870 $48,209 $42,881 -11%Total Revenue $2,399,905 $2,021,770 $1,785,208 -12%Source: IDC March 2009
Total Market By Application/Industry SegmentsTotal Market By Application/Industry Segments
TOTAL WORLDWIDE HPC SERVER MARKET
2007 2008 2009
Bio-Sciences $1,526,880 $1,357,703 $1,217,297 -10%CAE $1,248,623 $1,128,193 $952,761 -16%Chemical Engineering $260,067 $245,138 $223,469 -9%DCC & Distribution $589,403 $587,288 $576,228 -2%Economics/Financial $317,876 $299,360 $261,750 -13%EDA $721,597 $677,285 $613,730 -9%Geosciences and Geo-engineering $585,675 $567,962 $529,772 -7%Mechanical Design and Drafting $129,914 $117,674 $106,400 -10%Defense $916,211 $893,960 $871,584 -3%Government Lab $1,422,393 $1,427,504 $1,425,431 0%University/Academic $1,847,828 $1,825,397 $1,800,235 -1%Weather $394,180 $384,106 $371,259 -3%Other $115,775 $142,418 $182,757 28%Total Revenue $10,076,423 $9,653,988 $9,132,673 -5%Source: IDC March 2009
IDC
HPC Summary
IDC
HPC Summary
Major Customer Pain PointsMajor Customer Pain Points
#1 Dealing With The New Economic Realities
Clusters are still hard to use and manage System management & growing cluster complexity Power, cooling and floor space are major issues Third party software costs Weak interconnect performance at all levels Applications & programming — Hard to scale beyond a node RAS is a growing issue Storage and data management are becoming new bottle
necks Lack of support for heterogeneous environment and
accelerators
Major Customer Pain PointsMajor Customer Pain Points
Software has become the #1 roadblock Better management software is needed
– HPC clusters are hard to setup and operate – New buyers – require “ease-of-everything”
Parallel software is lacking for most users– Many applications will need a major redesign – Multi-core will cause many issues to “hit-the-wall”
Backup
Slides
Backup
Slides
The Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2009The Top 10 HPC Predictions for 2009
1 The HPC Market Will Dip in 2009 But Will Remain A Bright Spot in the IT Space
2 HPC Storage Will Increasingly Outpace the HPC Server Market
3 The Petaflop Club Will Gain More Members
4 HPC Supply Chain Use Will Become a Metric For Industrial Competitiveness
5 Power and Cooling Will See Lots of Innovation But No Major Breakthroughs
6 Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars
7 Standard Products Will Grow, But More Codes Will See Retrograde Performance
8 The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase
9 Software Licensing Costs Will Become a More Universal Chokepoint
10 Ease-of-Everything Will Gain Ground At the Low End and Beyond
1. The HPC Market Will Dip In 2008 and 2009 But Will Remain a Bright Spot in the IT Space 1. The HPC Market Will Dip In 2008 and 2009 But Will Remain a Bright Spot in the IT Space
• IDC estimates full-year 2008 HPC server revenue will be about $9.6 billion, down 4.2% from 2007.
• Our base case forecast shows revenue declining 5.4% in 2009, resuming modest growth in 2010, rebuilding to robust 9.6% growth and $11.7 billion revenue in 2012.
• HPC looks to remain one of the bright spots in the IT space.
Worldwide High-Performance Technical Systems Total Market Revenue Forecast, 2007 - 2012, Base
Case
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
($ M
illio
ns)
Source: IDC 2009
WHY?
HPC is mission-critical:
IDC late-2008 survey: None of the 110 government, industry, academic organizations planned to reduce HPC use in 2009.
But sites will be more conservative about new spending.
1. Fiscal Conservatism Will Affect HPC Market Segments Unequally 1. Fiscal Conservatism Will Affect HPC Market Segments Unequally
• Some automotive and financial services firms will shrink capex even in mission-critical areas, including HPC.
• In leading oil and gas companies, and in some entertainment and consumer product firms, budget cuts will be rare and HPC growth plans will usually be pursued, sometimes with delays.
• Government and academia will likely follow historical patterns by reacting less quickly and deeply to the economic downturn than the private sector does.
• In the U.S. and elsewhere, HPC will compete for funding with other pressing priorities.
1. The Global Recession Has Other Implications1. The Global Recession Has Other Implications
• The moderate revenue decline will trigger some vendor consolidation.
• Increased focus on cost-effectiveness will make standards-based clusters even more appealing. Products that boost the efficiency of existing HPC resources will also do well.
• More sites will apply simulation and analysis to existing data center designs to grow performance with minimal impact on power, cooling, and facility space.
• Capex-free HPC cycles delivered via service-oriented grids (and perhaps even some via cloud computing) will become more appealing to new users and for periodic, overflow work.
2. HPC Storage Will Increasingly Outpace the HPC Server Market 2. HPC Storage Will Increasingly Outpace the HPC Server Market
• The storage market will stay closer on course in 2009 as the server market dips, enabling the storage growth rate to outpace servers by at least 5%.
• Some large commercial storage firms will still fail to understand the learning curve needed to sell to HPC buyers.
• More hardware OEMs will start offering HPC storage solutions. Not all of them will have as much value to add as they believe.
• Flash has major advantages but will be applied judiciously until costs drop.
3. The Petaflop Club Will Gain More Members 3. The Petaflop Club Will Gain More Members
• PF initiatives are under way around the globe.• There will eventually be two membership levels:
Systems with substantial custom engineering price tags at times exceeding $100 million
Megaversions of standards-based clusters sold at a fraction of that amount
• 2011-12: The petascale bake-off between the creations of the DARPA HPCS program and Japan's Keisoku Project Will Japan blow the U.S. out of the water with superior real-world
performance again, as the Earth Simulator did in 2002? Will these innovation-packed supercomputers lead the rest of the
HPC market forward to unprecedented programmability, productivity, and performance, or will they branch off as a separate species with little relevance for the mainstream HPC market?
4. HPC Supply Chain Use Will Become a Metric For Industrial Competitiveness4. HPC Supply Chain Use Will Become a Metric For Industrial Competitiveness
• IDC/CoC research: 97% of the firms that had adopted HPC said they could no longer compete or survive without it.
Another 2008 IDC/CoC study showed that except for oil and gas, HPC isn't used much yet in supply chains.
• Today's affordable HPC entry-level systems, along with SMB-oriented utility computing offerings will capture more tier 2 and tier 3 industrial suppliers beginning in 2009.
• HPC use will start to become a metric for supply chain competitiveness, as it already is for tier 1 firms.
5. Power and Cooling Will See Lots of Innovation But No Major Breakthroughs5. Power and Cooling Will See Lots of Innovation But No Major Breakthroughs
• Power & cooling costs will remain a top issue for HPC sites.
• “Green" savings will be earmarked for the purchase of additional performance – the holy grail of HPC.
• There will be innovations in 2009 and more simulation of data centers for energy efficiency, but no major breakthroughs.
• The primary "Green" driver in HPC will be to obtain more performance within a fixed or more slowly growing green footprint. In most other IT sectors the primary driver will be to reduce costs to improve profitability.
6. Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars 6. Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars
• Nearly 10% of the sites IDC interviewed for our end-user, demand-side research were using alternative processors. Alternative processors have not yet made big market share
gains in HPC, but neither are they insignificant.
• Alternative processor vendors are "messaging" in their marketing campaigns that the future of HPC belongs to them.
• For 2009 and the near term, x86 processors will remain in the driver's seat. Intel's Nehalem and AMD's Shanghai processors will deliver enough advances to keep them there.
6. Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars (continued) 6. Competition Will Heat Up In the Alternative Processor Wars (continued)
• Innovations such as Nvidia's CUDA have substantially eased the burden of programming alternative processors, but for now this burden is still more onerous than coding within the mainstream x86 ecosystem.
• In 2009, users and vendors will increase their exploration of processor and system-level heterogeneity as the processor wars heat up.
• Will the majority of future HPC systems use a mix of processor types?
• Will x86 and alternative processors incorporate more and more of each other's capabilities and grow more and more alike?
7. Standard Products Will Grow, But More Codes Will See Retrograde Performance 7. Standard Products Will Grow, But More Codes Will See Retrograde Performance
• A late-2008 IDC survey: one in eight HPC sites (12%) had some codes that ran more slowly on their newest HPC system than on the prior one. 50% of the sites said they expected to see retrograde
performance on some codes within 12 months.• The culprits: escalating core counts that exceed the codes'
scalability, driven by the inability to move data in and out of each core fast enough to keep the cores busy.
• Most HPC ISV applications were designed to run on one core with relatively strong access to main memory.
Multicore/manycore processors have dramatically changed the bytes-to-flops ratio.
And energy-saving, tuned-down processor speeds reduce reduce single-threaded performance.
8. The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase 8. The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase
• Hardware parallelism from burgeoning core counts and system sizes is racing ahead of programming paradigms and the time available to programmers. Manycore processors and heterogeneity add to the
programming challenge.
• The parallel performance "wall" will reshape the nature of HPC code design and system usage.
• New DARPA HPCS languages could transform highly parallel programming starting a few years from now, but some users will resist this revolutionary change.
8. The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase (continued) 8. The Highly Parallel Programming Challenge Will Increase (continued)
• Solutions in 2009 will be less revolutionary. They include:
Hide parallel hardware behind optimized application-specific libraries (Interactive Supercomputing, Acceleware)
Optimize intra-node performance for multicore (Acumen) Abstract from distributed parallel hardware (ScaleMP, PGAS
languages) Address processor heterogeneity by extending the x86 ISA
within the compiler to include parallel accelerators (e.g., Convey Computer)
• Eventually something will need to give. HPC programmers will need more efficient programming paradigms, more innovative approaches for redesigning applications, more balanced hardware architectures, or all of the above.
9. Software Licensing Costs Will Become a More Universal Chokepoint 9. Software Licensing Costs Will Become a More Universal Chokepoint
• For most medium to large HPC industrial sites, application software fees already exceed the HPC server costs, often by a factor of two. For smaller HPC users the application fees can
exceed the server hardware costs by four to five times.
• Software vendors have been hard pressed to develop pricing models that turn an adequate profit while enabling their customers to exploit the many additional CPU hours that rampant hardware parallelism has made available. In 2009, software vendors will make further progress in
addressing this challenge but licensing costs will become a major issue for nearly all HPC sites that rely on commercial software.
10. Ease-of-Everything Will Gain Ground At the Low End and Beyond 10. Ease-of-Everything Will Gain Ground At the Low End and Beyond
• In 2007 and 2008, HPC vendors introduced server products priced under $50,000 and were designed to meet that segment's "ease-of-everything” requirements.
• In 2009, the underlying complexity of HPC server systems will continue to grow and ease-of-everything solutions will become more widespread in the workgroup segment.
• Hardware complexity will also grow for users outside of the workgroup segment, and this will make ease-of-everything solutions more appealing at higher price points as well.
Essential Guidance: GeneralEssential Guidance: General
• 2009 will be a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary change.
• Existing major challenges will remain inadequately addressed:
Highly parallel programming System imbalance (the "memory wall") Power and space usage Software licensing costs Ease-of-use – dealing with the growing system complexity
• The global economic recession will not significantly slow progress on these challenges or on scientific and engineering work, but it will slow sales enough to cause a dip in 2009.
Essential Guidance: HPC User/BuyersEssential Guidance: HPC User/Buyers
• In the difficult economy, vendors will compete more fiercely for your business. This will present opportunities to drive harder bargains that may no longer be available as the HPC market begins to recover in late 2009 and onward
• Users whose capex is under greater pressure in 2009 than their opex should consider sending overflow work to utility computing providers Some of these providers offer ISV applications and expertise as
well as cycles External cycles work best on less time-critical and less-security
sensitive jobs
Essential Guidance: HPC VendorsEssential Guidance: HPC Vendors
• The economic downturn will make buyers even more price-sensitive and this will be more favorable for standards-based clusters.
• Clusters will continue to put pressure on profits and challenge vendors to find new ways to deliver added value.
• Industrial HPC buyers will likely complete planned R&D-driven HPC purchases over the next few months, then reduce capital spending in many industries (excluding oil/gas).
• IDC expects government and university HPC purchasing to enter a flat growth period, with purchasing delays possible for the first six months or so of the new U.S. Administration.
Essential Guidance: HPC VendorsEssential Guidance: HPC Vendors
• National security and homeland defense operations will continue to develop additional requirements for HPC systems
• New applications areas for HPC may be developed based on database and pattern matching requirements
• IDC expects R&D for alternative energy sources, as well as nuclear, coal, climate modeling, and oil/gas to be strong growth segments
ConclusionsConclusions
• 2009 will be a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary change in the worldwide HPC market Incremental advances will alleviate but not resolve persistent issues,
such as highly parallel programming, power and cooling costs, and software licensing costs
• IDC predicts the HPC market will fall another 5.4% in 2009 before resuming modest growth in 2010 and rebuilding to robust 9.6% growth and $11.7 billion in revenue in 2012 The troubled economy will affect HPC segments unevenly, with
verticals such as automotive and financial services hit harder than oil and gas, or government and academia
The HPC storage market will remain strong through the recession
ConclusionsConclusions
• Standards-based clusters will gain market share in the price-sensitive economy, but more HPC sites will experience retrograde performance on some codes
• More petaflop systems will arrive in 2009, and “ease-of-everything” solutions will proliferate at the low end and beyond
• HPC supply chain use will start to become a metric for industrial competitiveness
• Because of its mission-critical nature, HPC will exit the recession the way it entered it as a bright spot in the IT space
Why Is Commodity Hot? .. Price!Why Is Commodity Hot? .. Price!
HPC All Servers Processor Summary, 2008
ASP ($K)Ave.CPUs / System $K / CPU CPUs / $M
x86 50.7 21 2.4 419
RISC 98.3 10 9.5 105
EPIC 55.9 7 7.6 131
Vector 873.4 12 73.6 14
From Our New End-user StudyFrom Our New End-user Study
T A B L E 9
Count of interconnect type in use
Interconnect Type count %
InfiniBand 52 30%
1-Gigabit Ethernet 47 27%
10-Gigabit Ethernet 24 14%
SMP-only 14 8%
Other types 34 20%
Total 171 100%
Source: IDC, Nov 2008
