The Core Questions, Working Group member roles, responsibilities and

contributions for the Scientific Synthesis Group

Laurence MeeDirector: Scottish Association for Marine Science

I. Expectations

Science inputs and the TDA/SAP process

Why do we need international waters assessments?

Interventions have frequently failed to fully identify the impacts (environmental, socioeconomic) and temporal and geographical boundaries of the problem and its causes (scaling & scoping).

The boundaries of the area where the problem itself is observed may not encompass the location of the cause.

THE TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS (TDA)

Is recommended for most IW projects

Is a scientific and technical fact-finding analysis

It should be an objective assessment and not a negotiated document

It acts as a diagnostic tool for measuring the effectiveness of SAP implementation

STRATEGIC ACTION PROGRAMME (SAP)

A SAP is a negotiated policy document

It establishes clear priorities for action to resolve the priority transboundary waters problems

It identifies policy, legal and institutional reforms and investments needed to address the priority transboundary waters problems

The preparation of a SAP is a cooperative process among key stakeholders in the countries of the region.

WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENCES & COMPLEMENTARITIES BETWEEN THE TDA AND

THE SAP?

THE TDA IDENTIFIES:•THE PRIORITY PROBLEMS•ENV & SE IMPACTS•UNDERLYING SECTORAL AND ROOT CAUSES

•ANALYSIS OF GOVERNANCE

BASED ON A REASONED AND MULTI-SECTORAL CONSIDERATION OF THE PROBLEMS

THE FACTUAL BASIS FOR THE FORMULATION OF A SAP

OUTLINES THE POLICY, LEGAL, AND INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS AND INVESTMENTS NEEDED TO RESOLVE THE PRIORITY TB PROBLEMS

MUST BE AGREED BEFORE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, CAPACITY-BUILDING, OR INVESTMENT PROJECTS CAN BE DEVELOPED

THE SAP SETS OUT SPECIFIC ACTIONS FOR EACH COUNTRY THAT CAN BE ADOPTED NATIONALLY BUT HARMONISED WITH THE OTHER CONCERNED COUNTRIES

THE TDA THE SAP

THREE SOURCES OF GEF FUNDING

May cover:

Prep of project concept paper & pdf-b proposal

Consultation with governments

Initial stakeholder identification

An assessment of feasibility of the proposed activity

May cover:

Information gathering, consultation and supporting documentation to prepare full project proposals

Stakeholder involvement and M&E Plans

Establishment and initiation of TDA/SAP mechanisms

Awarded in accordance with GEF Guidelines (OS, OP, SPs) and the relevant Convention

Requisite:

Submission & approval of a full project concept paper;

A project brief for presentation of the project proposal to GEF Council

PDF – A Funding PDF – B Funding Full Project Funding

PDF-A funding PDF-B funding Full Project funding

Early stage programme supportProject identificationInitial stakeholder consultations

TDA/SAP developmentFull Project proposal development

Implementation of SAP

SCENARIOS OF THE GEF FUNDING PROCESS

Projects with a smaller number of participating countries

PDF-A funding PDF-B funding Full Project funding (I)

Full Project funding (II)

Early stage programme supportProject identificationInitial stakeholder consultations

Initial TDA developmentPreliminary SAPFull Project proposal development

TDA completionSAP developmentDemonstration projects

Implementation of SAP

SCENARIOS OF THE GEF FUNDING PROCESS

Projects with a larger number of participating countries

Full stakeholder participation

Underlying principles incorporated into

the TDA/SAP process

Joint fact-finding (inc. social and economic

root causes)Transparency

The ecosystem approach

Adaptive management

The Ecosystem Approach

A resource planning and management approach that recognizes the connections between land, air, water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions.

Definition from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada

www.mnr.gov.on.ca/

Key components of the ecosystem approach

• Management objectives as societal choice• Management decentralised and multi-sectoral• Appropriate temporal and spatial scale• Conservation of ecosystem function and resilience• Appropriate balance between conservation and use• Management within system limits• The outward vision (respect interconnectedness)

and long-term vision (change is inevitable)• Broad use of knowledge, scientific and traditional• Incorporation of economic considerations (costs

and benefits, removal of externalities, etc.)

Source: CBD Malawi guidelines

Policy RESPONSE

optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges

Human WELFAREchange

Socio-economic DRIVERS

Environ-mental

PRESSURES

Social system

Ecological system

A framework for understanding - DPSWR

Policy RESPONSE

optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges

Human WELFAREchange

Socio-economic DRIVERS

Environ-mental

PRESSURES

Social system

Ecological system

DPSWR - Where are the impacts?

IMPACTS

Policy RESPONSE

optionsEnviron-mental STATEchanges

Human WELFAREchange

Socio-economic DRIVERS

Environ-mental

PRESSURES

Human climate change

Natural system

variability

External factors

DPSWR - External factors

Communication to stakeholders must be understandable

Connecting, values, visions and planning

Work with the community to identify key stakeholders

Stakeholders select representatives

Joint fact-finding (supported by science)

Community agreement on a vision for the future

Brainstorming the first steps for getting there

Adaptive management

Positive thinking for an uncertain future

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

Baseline studies

Methods

ASSESSMENT

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

A measureable aspirational goal for

the future

Baseline studies

Methods

Emerging Issues

SETTING THE VISION

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Baseline studies

Methods

Emerging Issues

SETTING THE VISION

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Baseline studies

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

Methods

Emerging Issues

DEFINING THE FIRST STEP

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Baseline studies

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

NECESSARY INDICATORS

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Regulations and compliance

Fast feedback loop

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

System-wide aspirational goalsEcosystem quality

objectives

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Regulations and compliance

Slow feedback loop

Status and trends

Fast feedback loop

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION

International Waters Task Force Key Indicators 2002

1. Process indicators

2. Stress reduction indicators

3. Environmental status indicators.

Systems thinking: A method of rational inquiry

Understanding of how human activities can

impact marine environment

Models for systems analysis

Conceptual models describing pathways of socio-economic drivers

and pressures

Sensitivity of system to proposed policy options

and socio-economic changes

Information about relevant

attributes of the system

Metadata

Requirements

Data and narrativeValidation

Leads to improvements in

Scenarios

Helps devise

PART 2

OVERVIEW OF THE 5 PHASES

OF THE TDA/SAP PROCESS

Full stakeholder participation

Underlying principles incorporated into

the TDA/SAP process

Joint fact-finding (inc. social and economic

root causes)Transparency

The ecosystem approach

Adaptive management

Accountability

Inter-sectoral policy buildingStepwise consensus

building Subsidiarity

Incremental costs

Donor partnerships

Government commitment

1. Project development

Preliminary project request

Identification and consultation with the stakeholder groups

3. Development of the TDA

Identification and initial prioritisation of transboundary problems

Analysis of impacts/ consequences transboundary problems

Production and submission of complete draft TDA

TDA Preparation

Causal chain analysis and governance analysis

Final prioritisation of transboundary problems

4. Formulatingthe SAP

Bridging the TDA and SAP and developing long-term EcoQOs

Brainstorming ways to attain the EcoQOs

Examination of and political consultation on alternative options

Development of targets and indicators

Drafting the NAPs and SAP

Planning the remaining steps of the SAP and appointing SAP and NAP formulation teams

2. Planningthe TDA/SAP

Design work plan for the TDA/SAP implementation phase including budgets

Detailed stakeholder analysis and draft public involvement plan

Identification of the technical task team (TTT)

Preparation of a draft concept paper

Project approval by the GEF CEO

Appointment of Project Manager

Appointment of Facilitator

Form Interministry Committees

Form Steering committee

Set up the TDA Technical Task Team (TTT)

5. SAPimplementation

Adoption of the SAP: The Ministerial Conference

Preparation of Full Project brief

Conducting a Donors Conference

Development of relevant interventions by GEF and/or other donors

Agreement on the institutional framework

TDA adopted by steering committee

4. FORMULATING THE SAP

The Strategic Action Programme is a process of reaching political consensus on the policy and legal reforms, investments and capacity building requirements needed to address the key issues identified in the TDA.

It requires the best possible technical advice and is based on the principle of collaborative problem solving

Underlying principle of negotiation: Collaborative problem solving

Seeking compromise

When there may be no win-win solution.

Dewey’s ‘rules of logic’ (1930)

1. Define the problem in terms of needs, not solutions

2. Brainstorm possible solutions

3. Select the solutions that will best meet both parties’ needs and check possible consequences

4. Plan who will do what, where and when

5. Implement the plan

6. Evaluate the problem-solving process and, at a later date, how well the solution turned out.

STEPS FOR DEVELOPING THE SAP

Develop a long term vision for the region

Brainstorm ways to attain the Eco/WR QOs

Assess the acceptability of the options, including: technical feasibility, as well as economic and political

Set short-term targets and priority actions

Develop M & E indicators

Draft the SAP

Building a national and regional consensus on the SAP

Approach 2 (national workshop leads)

Initial regional brainstorming workshop

Approach 1 (regional workshop leads)

National workshops revise proposals

SAP Task Team (regional)

Integration

PROPOSALS FOR REVIEW

Feasibility/detailed technical evaluation

National brainstorming workshops

SAP Task Team (regional)

Regional level feedback

SAP Task Team (regional)

PROPOSALS FOR REVIEW

Integration

Feasibility/detailed technical evaluation

“Wicked” and “Tame” Problems

“Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management

“Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value-based decisions: governance.

Clear solutions

no clear solution; there will be winners and losers

First order “fixes”

Hard choices

Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem

Mee, Eberhard and Dublin, Global Environmental Change, 2008

A GEF intervention that goes well

Mee, Eberhard and Dublin, Global Environmental Change, 2008

… and not so well.

Temporal issues

III. Core Questions

Critical emerging science issues (5 Core Questions)

1. What are the critical science challenges “on the horizon” specific to each ecosystem type?

2. What is the significance of regional and global-scale drivers, in particular climate change, in the genesis of transboundary problems?

3. Describe how understanding and managing multiple causality in a transboundary water context is undertaken?

3. How are variable spatial and temporal scales in IW projects accounted for?

4. What approaches were used to understand/assess the coupling of social and ecological systems?

Development and use of indicators to support IW projects (3 Core Questions)

1. How did the projects help build and implement sound indicators and monitoring strategies to support SAP implementation and/or ultimately assess the achievement of environmental and social benefits?

2. How can we identify effective proxy indicators for use in IW projects?

3. How to make better use of appropriate science and best practices for Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis?

Note that there may be a need for a comparative analysis of current GEF IW indicators and those used by the DPSWR framework.

Application of science for adaptive management - (5 Core Questions)

1. Was engagement of both local and wider science communities utilised in IW projects? If not, how can improvements be made?

2. Is scientific expertise and local knowledge well applied within the IW focal area, particularly in accessing existing baseline information, new findings on methodologies, science breakthroughs and scanning for emerging issues?

3. Identify lessons learned for linking science and policy implementation, including policy formulation and broader governance issues

4. Is adaptive management happening? How to better understand and effectively communicate the scientific dimensions of adaptive management to different user groups?

5. How to better communicate newly-synthesized science knowledge to stakeholders within and external to GEF?

Reflections and discussion