The Cost of Protecting Homes from Wildfires in the Sierra Nevada

Patty Gudepatty@headwaterseconomics.org

Full research paper at http://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire

20100

100,000 200,000 300,000

400,000 500,000 600,000

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1,000,000

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Number of Homes Built Since 1950 in the Sierra Nevada Area

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100,000

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1,000,000

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Num

ber of H

om

es B

uilt S

ince 1950 in the S

ierra N

evada A

rea

Since 1950, more than 900,000 homes were built in the Sierra Nevada study area.

Data not available

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1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Sq

uare

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Change in Area of Low Density Development Since 1950 in the Sierra Nevada Area

Since 1950, 1,500 square miles of undeveloped private land has been converted to low density

development in the Sierra Nevada area.

This map shows homes built since 1950 in the Placerville area (east of Sacramento.)

This level of sprawl increases the chances that

homes will be threatened by

wildfires.

An increase in temperature of 1⁰ F is associated with a 35% increase in area burned by wildfires.

Warming temperatures and drought are strongly related to increases in wildfires.

This is more than twice the number threatened during the 1980s and 90s due to the increase in

area burned by wildfires and sprawl.

In the past 10 years, 13,000 homes on average were threatened annually by wildfires.

We analyzed how homes affected daily firefighting costs.

The best model of costs included 5 factors:•Count of Homes•Fire Size•Fire Growth Potential•Habitat (% Forest Cover)•Time (% of Fire Complete)

This figure shows a clear relationship: firefighting costs go up when more homes are

present around the fire.

$57,151

$11,430 $5,715

$1,143 $0

$10,000

$20,000

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1 5 10 50

Number of Pre-Existing Homes Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

Additional Daily Firefighting Cost Associated with One New Home Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

$57,151

$11,430 $5,715

$1,143 $0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

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Number of Pre-Existing Homes Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

Additional Daily Firefighting Cost Associated with One New Home Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

RESULTSWhat we found:In low density areas, the per home cost can be

incredibly high.

For a 35 day fire, one home can increase the firefighting cost by $2 million.

$57,151

$11,430 $5,715

$1,143 $0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

1 5 10 50

Number of Pre-Existing Homes Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

Additional Daily Firefighting Cost Associated with One New Home Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

$57,151

$11,430 $5,715

$1,143 $0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

1 5 10 50

Number of Pre-Existing Homes Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

Additional Daily Firefighting Cost Associated with One New Home Within 6 Miles of the Wildfire

When there are hundreds of homes around, the cost of each additional home is less (fire managers are probably already doing all they can to stop the fire).

For a 35 day fire, one home can increase the firefighting cost by $2 million.

One new home in an already developed area increases costs by much less.

Keeping development within the existing “footprint” would reduce future firefighting costs by millions.

Policy Implications:

As firefighting costs rise, future policies will need to focus on covering the additional costs

related to new housing.

If the costs were borne, in part, by those who build at-risk homes, or by local governments who permit them, rather than by the federal and state taxpayer,

development rates in high risk areas may slow.

View other wildfire studies & resources athttp://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire