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The Critical PathEnergy System Decarbonization
Stephen StrettonResearch Associate, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) http://www.4cmr.org
Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Societyhttp://www.zerocarbonnow.org
2nd June 2009
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ContentsEnergy System Decarbonization
• Why?
• Terminology
• Carbon
• Rough Numbers for UK (Physics)
• Land
• Cost
• Rough Numbers for UK (Economics)
• The Critical Path
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Why?
Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly
* In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental PollutionSources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
En
erg
y D
eman
d (
GW
)
Reference Scenario
Fast Economic Growth - A1T
Notes• All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*.• 1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year• 1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant
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World Energy Consumption By Fuel
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World Electricity By Fuel Type
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Why?
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Carbon: Terminology
Carbon Emissions Per Person Per Year (tonnes CO2eq)
High Carbon ~10
Lower Carbon 4
Low Carbon 2
Ultra-low Carbon 1
Zero Carbon 0
Negative Carbon <0
*Imports of embodied energy not included
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Technology: Terminology
Technology LCA
gCO2eq/kwh
High Carbon Coal ~1000
Lower Carbon
Gas ~400
Low Carbon CCS ~150
Ultra-low Carbon
Renewables & Nuclear? ~5 to ~50
Zero Carbon (Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs) ~0
Negative Carbon
Reforestation
Biomass with CCS
Air capture
<0
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Source: Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology
Carbon: All Electricity Technologies
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CSD
‘Low-Carbon’Tech.
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Physics Rough Numbers
Total Per Person
Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports
10 tCO2/yr
Energy Consumption
300GW 5kW
Electricity Consumption
~45GW 1kW
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Land
Energy Source
Density
MWavg/km2
Biomass ~0.5
Wind ~2-3
CSP ~15
See
www.withouthotair.com
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Do Everything… to Save the Planet!
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Unit Costs p per kWhLevelized Costs pence per kWh
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Coal (PC) Gas Nuclear£2bn/GW
Nuclear -£3bn/GW
Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Coal CCS
Waste & Decommissioning
Carbon Cost
Fuel Cost
O&M Costs
Investment Costs
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Economics Numbers
Total Per Person
GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr
Public Spending £500billion/yr £8,000/yr
Market Value of Houses etc
£7trillion £100,000
National Debt £700billion £12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
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Fiscal Reform
1.Tax ‘bads’
2.Remove tax on ‘goods’
3.Tax ‘rent’
• Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and a ‘rent’
• So “change VAT to CAT”
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Investment Cost & Tax Revenue
• UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy use. 1GW costs ~£2bn.
• £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP– UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year
– Cost of Trident £40bn total
• £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO2) would– Add £50 to a barrel of oil
– 4p/kWh on gas
– 10p/kWh on coal
– 23p/litre on petrol
– Raise £60bn/yr initially
– £1000 citizens income or replace VAT
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Discussion Points• How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor &
coordinate internationally?
• How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP?
• Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another? Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies or ‘within’ technologies
• If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate change then cost anything at all?
• If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology?
• Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power being easily integrated?
• Market Incentives (19th Century Railways) or State Intervention (20th Century Wars) or Both?
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Carbonomics meets Freakonomics…
Total Per Person
Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr
Energy Consumption 300GW 5kW
Electricity Consumption
~50GW 1kW
Land Area ? ?
GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr
Public Spending £500billion/yr
Market Value of Houses etc
£7trillion £100,000
National Debt £700billion £12,000
Other Liabilities
Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks
~£500billion?
£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn
£9,000
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Conclusions: The Critical Path1. Public Understanding and Proposed Policy2. Skills and Capacity Building3. Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices4. Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’5. Start Energy Efficiency Rollout6. Build Energy Infrastructure7. Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’8. Strategy transfer around the world9. Switch Transportation10.Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries11.Reforest the world12.Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction
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Thanks for your attention!
Contact me:Stephen [email protected]
Links:http://www.4cmr.org
http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.zerocarbonnow.org
