The Cyprus ConflictThe Cyprus Conflictand and

Basic Parametres for a Basic Parametres for a SolutionSolution

THE COLONIAL CYPRUSTHE COLONIAL CYPRUS

1571 Ottoman Conquest.1571 Ottoman Conquest. 1878 British Rule1878 British Rule Post-WWI British Colony, EOKA (1955), Post-WWI British Colony, EOKA (1955),

TMT, Enosis struggle, double-enosisTMT, Enosis struggle, double-enosis Decolonization in post-WWII era in the Decolonization in post-WWII era in the

world, its repercussions on Cyprus.world, its repercussions on Cyprus.

THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUSCYPRUS A State created by international treatiesA State created by international treaties

London and Zurich Accords (1959)London and Zurich Accords (1959) CONSOCIATIONAL DEMOCRACY:CONSOCIATIONAL DEMOCRACY: involving involving

guaranteed group representationguaranteed group representation.. It is It is a a form ofform of power-sharing. power-sharing.

FEDERATION (FEDERATION (is a type of sovereign state is a type of sovereign state characterized by a union of partially self-characterized by a union of partially self-governing states united by a central governing states united by a central (federal) government.(federal) government.

BI-COMMUNITY, BI-ETNICITY, BI-BI-COMMUNITY, BI-ETNICITY, BI-NATIONALITY reflected to all institutionsNATIONALITY reflected to all institutions

THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUSCYPRUS

A PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEMA PRESIDENTIAL SYSTEM GC President, TC Vice-President with VETOGC President, TC Vice-President with VETO

EXECUTIVE: President and Vice President, CABINET EXECUTIVE: President and Vice President, CABINET of MINISTERS (70:30)of MINISTERS (70:30)

LEGISLATIVE: 70 (Greeks):(30 Turks)LEGISLATIVE: 70 (Greeks):(30 Turks) JUDICIAL: JUDICIAL:

Constitutional Court Constitutional Court ((GGCC, TC and neutral president, TC and neutral president)). . High Court High Court (Neutral(Neutral president, having two votes, two GC president, having two votes, two GC

and one TC judge.and one TC judge. Communal Courts (judges from that community)Communal Courts (judges from that community)

PUBLIC SERVICE: 70:30PUBLIC SERVICE: 70:30

ARMED FORCES and SECURITY FORCESARMED FORCES and SECURITY FORCESArmed Forces: Army of 2000 – 60% GC and Armed Forces: Army of 2000 – 60% GC and 40% TC40% TC

Security Force:Security Force:police and gendarmeriepolice and gendarmerie – 70% – 70% GC and 30% TCGC and 30% TC

Treaty of Alliance: 950 Greek and 650 Turkish Treaty of Alliance: 950 Greek and 650 Turkish soldiers.soldiers.

THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF THE 1960 REPUBLIC OF CYPRUSCYPRUS

• System falls down in 1963.System falls down in 1963.• RoC becomes a fully GC administrationRoC becomes a fully GC administration• TCs establish separate institutionsTCs establish separate institutions

* 1964-1968 – Great Powers – Cold War * 1964-1968 – Great Powers – Cold War Discipline...Discipline...

* 1968 Beginning of the “inter-communal * 1968 Beginning of the “inter-communal talks” – Denktaş-Klerides – on constitutional talks” – Denktaş-Klerides – on constitutional aspects.aspects.

• 1967-1974 Colonels’ regime in Greece1967-1974 Colonels’ regime in Greece• 1974 Greek Coup and Turkish Military 1974 Greek Coup and Turkish Military

OperationOperation• Failure of talks: TCs demanded regional Failure of talks: TCs demanded regional

autonomy in their enclaves, GC were trying autonomy in their enclaves, GC were trying to maintain total control of the government. to maintain total control of the government.

- Cease-fireCease-fire- 1975-76 Vienna Talks: the agreement to 1975-76 Vienna Talks: the agreement to

transfer the population from north to south and transfer the population from north to south and vice versa (1975 Population Exchange vice versa (1975 Population Exchange Agreement)Agreement)

• 27 January and 12 February 1977 Makarios- 27 January and 12 February 1977 Makarios- Denktaş summit. Denktaş summit.

• Main principle: An independent, non-aligned, Main principle: An independent, non-aligned, bicommunal federal Republic (became the bicommunal federal Republic (became the reference point for the UN and USA since it was reference point for the UN and USA since it was agreed by both parties).agreed by both parties).

* 1983 Declaration of the Turkish Republic * 1983 Declaration of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)

* February 1988 Presidential Election * February 1988 Presidential Election (George Vassiliou)(George Vassiliou)

* * 1988-1992 Talks towards an Overall Framework Agreement1988-1992 Talks towards an Overall Framework Agreement- More than 100 hours of negotiations between Vassiliou and More than 100 hours of negotiations between Vassiliou and

DenktaşDenktaş- Result: Result: Ghali’s Set of Ideas Ghali’s Set of Ideas ((On 3 April 1992, On 3 April 1992,

Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the new UN Secretary-General, presented , the new UN Secretary-General, presented the Security Council with the outline plan for the creation of a bi-the Security Council with the outline plan for the creation of a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation that would prohibit any form of zonal, bi-communal federation that would prohibit any form of partition, secession or union with another statepartition, secession or union with another state).).

- Denktaş and Vassiliou indicated that the Set of Ideas could not Denktaş and Vassiliou indicated that the Set of Ideas could not be accepted unconditionally. be accepted unconditionally.

- Denktaş said he had concerns about the 9 paragraphs out of 100 Denktaş said he had concerns about the 9 paragraphs out of 100 paragraphs.paragraphs.

- Vassiliou said he accepted the Set of Ideas and the Map as the Vassiliou said he accepted the Set of Ideas and the Map as the basis for reaching an overall framework agreement, subject to basis for reaching an overall framework agreement, subject to any improvements for the benefit of both communities. any improvements for the benefit of both communities.

-

-

* Denktaş blamed as the “scape goat” and * Denktaş blamed as the “scape goat” and had an image of “Mr. No” in the had an image of “Mr. No” in the international community.international community.

* 1993 Confidence Building Measures p. 85.* 1993 Confidence Building Measures p. 85.

- Very important mile-stone – a “new - Very important mile-stone – a “new diagnosis of the Cyprus Problem” – diagnosis of the Cyprus Problem” – change of method.change of method.

- A very important, yet another, “missed - A very important, yet another, “missed opportunity” (Especially those measures opportunity” (Especially those measures regarding the opening of part of the regarding the opening of part of the Varosha and Nicosia International Airport)Varosha and Nicosia International Airport)

* New International Conjecture* New International Conjecture- End of the Cold WarEnd of the Cold War

+ Easing of Cold War discipline+ Easing of Cold War discipline

+ Emergence of regional/ethnic conflicts + Emergence of regional/ethnic conflicts (Cyprus conflict losing its importance)(Cyprus conflict losing its importance)

+ Collapse of “federations”+ Collapse of “federations”

+ Introduction of the EC/EU factor (July + Introduction of the EC/EU factor (July 1990 – application for full membership1990 – application for full membership

• No negotiations 1994-1997No negotiations 1994-1997• The new secretary general Kofi Annan tried to bring The new secretary general Kofi Annan tried to bring

new dynamism in 1997.new dynamism in 1997.• Clerides-Denktaş met on July 1997 in New York. Clerides-Denktaş met on July 1997 in New York. • Yet these talks took place at a time when the EU Yet these talks took place at a time when the EU

decided to open accession negotiations with the Greek decided to open accession negotiations with the Greek Cypriot Republic on behalf of the whole island. Cypriot Republic on behalf of the whole island.

TC side furthered its intransigent policy in line with the TC side furthered its intransigent policy in line with the new international conjecturenew international conjecture

- GC side focused on their long term EU strategyGC side focused on their long term EU strategy- Turkey swamped with its domestic problems in the Turkey swamped with its domestic problems in the

1990s –1990s –- 1997 Luxembourg Summit – “lowest point in the 1997 Luxembourg Summit – “lowest point in the

relations with the EU” – Turkish side openly shifting to relations with the EU” – Turkish side openly shifting to “confederal” parametres...“confederal” parametres...

* 1999 Helsinki Summit – * 1999 Helsinki Summit – granted Turkey the candidate statusgranted Turkey the candidate status. . In the final In the final declaration of the summit, it was underlined that a political solution to the declaration of the summit, it was underlined that a political solution to the Cyprus problem would facilitate Turkey’s EU membershipCyprus problem would facilitate Turkey’s EU membership

* EU reforms in Turkey (Ecevit Coalition) * EU reforms in Turkey (Ecevit Coalition) though very slow...though very slow...

- Financial crisis of February 2001- Financial crisis of February 2001

+ accelerated the pace of the reforms + accelerated the pace of the reforms (economic as well as political).(economic as well as political).

Following 1998 and 2001 a pro-EU coalition Following 1998 and 2001 a pro-EU coalition on the rise, demanding Turkey’s on the rise, demanding Turkey’s membership to EU and the settlement of membership to EU and the settlement of the Cyprus dispute. the Cyprus dispute.

+2002 November – AKP’s electoral victory.+2002 November – AKP’s electoral victory.

* Now there is a “deadline” to meet...* Now there is a “deadline” to meet...- Turkish accession to the EU and finding a Turkish accession to the EU and finding a

“comprehensive” solution plan to the “comprehensive” solution plan to the Cyprus ProblemCyprus Problem

- Annan Plan (AP) Annan Plan (AP) The UN's plan to make The UN's plan to make Cyprus a federation of two states with a Cyprus a federation of two states with a loose central governmentloose central government

+ November 2002 – AP1 (Annan Plan + November 2002 – AP1 (Annan Plan version 1)version 1)

+ December 2002 – AP2+ December 2002 – AP2

+ February 2003 – AP3+ February 2003 – AP3

Lets get the job done by April 2003 before Lets get the job done by April 2003 before the signing of the Accession Treaty...the signing of the Accession Treaty...

• On 10 and 11 MarchOn 10 and 11 March 2003 2003, talks between , talks between parties in The Hague, The Netherlands, parties in The Hague, The Netherlands, on a comprehensive settlement on the on a comprehensive settlement on the Cyprus problem based on a United Cyprus problem based on a United Nations plan broke downNations plan broke down..

- 2003 December – change of the 2003 December – change of the government in the TRNC and re-focusing government in the TRNC and re-focusing on the negotiations that led to on the negotiations that led to Burgenstock and on 31 March 2004 the Burgenstock and on 31 March 2004 the final version of the Annan Plan.final version of the Annan Plan.

24 April 2004 Referandums24 April 2004 Referandums

75% NO by GCs and 65% YES by TCs.75% NO by GCs and 65% YES by TCs.

The Annan Plan failed to come into The Annan Plan failed to come into life…life…

2004-2008 – Impasse/Deadlock2004-2008 – Impasse/Deadlock

February 2008 Presidential election in February 2008 Presidential election in Greek Cypriot community – enters Greek Cypriot community – enters Demetris ChristofiasDemetris Christofias

April 2008 Negotiations on the level of April 2008 Negotiations on the level of Working Groups and Technical Working Groups and Technical Committees startedCommittees started

Technical Committees work on daily problems Technical Committees work on daily problems related to crime, environment, health and related to crime, environment, health and cultural issues.cultural issues.

Working GroupsWorking Groups

(1) Governance and power-sharing (2) EU (1) Governance and power-sharing (2) EU mattersmatters

(3) Security and guarantees (4) Territory(3) Security and guarantees (4) Territory

(5) Property (6) Economic matters(5) Property (6) Economic matters

In April 2010, Presidential Election in In April 2010, Presidential Election in TRNC, Derviş Eroğlu Replaced M. A. TRNC, Derviş Eroğlu Replaced M. A. Talat.Talat.

Since September 2008, the two Since September 2008, the two leaders, Talat (then Eroğlu) and leaders, Talat (then Eroğlu) and Christofias have been negotiating on Christofias have been negotiating on six dossiers (issues of the Working six dossiers (issues of the Working Groups).Groups).

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

In the Geneva summit held on 7 July 2011, the In the Geneva summit held on 7 July 2011, the leaders of the two communities, Demetris Christofias leaders of the two communities, Demetris Christofias and Derviş Eroğlu met the UN Secretary General Ban and Derviş Eroğlu met the UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. The summit ended with significant Ki Moon. The summit ended with significant decisions. It was agreed to intensify negotiations to decisions. It was agreed to intensify negotiations to reach convergence on the core issues by October reach convergence on the core issues by October 2011, give the UN an enhanced role and ultimately 2011, give the UN an enhanced role and ultimately conclude the talks with an international conference. conclude the talks with an international conference. These decisions meant that leaders need to pick up These decisions meant that leaders need to pick up the pace of the talks, go through and reach the pace of the talks, go through and reach convergence on all core issues through a give-and-convergence on all core issues through a give-and-take process. take process.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

The UN clearly laid out a timetable for the The UN clearly laid out a timetable for the talks to reach their conclusion, with the talks to reach their conclusion, with the obvious milestone being Cyprus’ EU obvious milestone being Cyprus’ EU Presidency starting in July 2012. UN Special Presidency starting in July 2012. UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer stated that the Adviser Alexander Downer stated that the UN is aiming to get the agreement done UN is aiming to get the agreement done before Cyprus takes over the presidency of before Cyprus takes over the presidency of the EUthe EU. . UN’s efforts to drive the process UN’s efforts to drive the process forward is supported by the EU.forward is supported by the EU.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

However little progress have been However little progress have been achieved. On 28 April 2012, achieved. On 28 April 2012, UN Special UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer saAdviser Alexander Downer saidid: “It is : “It is clear to me and to both leaders that the clear to me and to both leaders that the negotiations have recently come to negotiations have recently come to something of a standstillsomething of a standstill””..

TThe UN decihe UN decidedded to downgrade the talks, to downgrade the talks, end leaders’ meetings and initiate a round end leaders’ meetings and initiate a round of shuttle diplomacy between the two of shuttle diplomacy between the two sides to decide the way forward, sides to decide the way forward,

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments The latest effort of the UN came at a time when The latest effort of the UN came at a time when

public skepticism regarding the potential success public skepticism regarding the potential success of the ongoing negotiations in reaching a lasting of the ongoing negotiations in reaching a lasting agreement, continues to grow. agreement, continues to grow. The polls The polls manifest that 65% of Greek Cypriots and 69% of manifest that 65% of Greek Cypriots and 69% of Turkish Cypriots do not believe that current Turkish Cypriots do not believe that current negotiations will lead to a resultnegotiations will lead to a result. .

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

No doubt, at first sight one is confronted with a bleak No doubt, at first sight one is confronted with a bleak picture. The election of picture. The election of Demetris Christofias, the leader Demetris Christofias, the leader of of communist-rooted communist-rooted AKELAKEL in 2008 had opened a window in 2008 had opened a window of opportunity. of opportunity. During this phase, Christofias and Talat During this phase, Christofias and Talat issued two Joint Declarations under the UN’s auspices, issued two Joint Declarations under the UN’s auspices, respectively on 23 May and 1 July 2008. The leaders respectively on 23 May and 1 July 2008. The leaders committed themselves to giving birth to a bizonal and committed themselves to giving birth to a bizonal and bi-communal Cypriot Federation with political equality bi-communal Cypriot Federation with political equality defined as a partnership which will have a Federal defined as a partnership which will have a Federal Government with a single international personality, as Government with a single international personality, as well as a Turkish Cypriot Constituent State and a Greek well as a Turkish Cypriot Constituent State and a Greek Cypriot Constituent State, which will be of equal status. Cypriot Constituent State, which will be of equal status.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

Since then, there has been a backsliding on Since then, there has been a backsliding on both sides, which scaled down and even both sides, which scaled down and even concealed to the public the degree of concealed to the public the degree of convergence reached in the Declarations. convergence reached in the Declarations. The Greek Cypriots have stepped away from The Greek Cypriots have stepped away from the concepts of “partnership” and the concepts of “partnership” and “constituent states”, whereas the Turkish “constituent states”, whereas the Turkish Cypriots have been squeamish about the Cypriots have been squeamish about the constitutive characteristics of the future constitutive characteristics of the future Federation. Federation.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

Talat has paid a heavy price for this. Talat has paid a heavy price for this. In April 2010, In April 2010, a Turkish Cypriot electorate that became a Turkish Cypriot electorate that became increasingly disillusioned with the peace process increasingly disillusioned with the peace process elected hardliner Derviş Eroğlu as the next elected hardliner Derviş Eroğlu as the next president of the TRNC. Even though Eroğlu president of the TRNC. Even though Eroğlu continued the negotiations from where Talat left, continued the negotiations from where Talat left, no breakthrough has been achieved so far. no breakthrough has been achieved so far. Negotiations are hardly carried out in a Negotiations are hardly carried out in a constructive manner and it almost became constructive manner and it almost became customary to accuse the other party for not being customary to accuse the other party for not being sincere in their will to reach a settlement. sincere in their will to reach a settlement.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

TToday both Eroğlu and Christofias are questioned on oday both Eroğlu and Christofias are questioned on whether they truly embrace the established UN whether they truly embrace the established UN parameters for a federal solution to the Cyprus problem parameters for a federal solution to the Cyprus problem based on power-sharing between two communities. based on power-sharing between two communities. Despite the fact that leaders of the two sides agreed Despite the fact that leaders of the two sides agreed these parameters on paper, a win-win situation in a these parameters on paper, a win-win situation in a mutual compromise has been mostly the second choice mutual compromise has been mostly the second choice for both sides in contrast to their respective temptation for both sides in contrast to their respective temptation to win unilaterally. Turkish Cypriots’ unilateral winning to win unilaterally. Turkish Cypriots’ unilateral winning strategy would entail having their own recognized strategy would entail having their own recognized independent state and solving the Cyprus problem independent state and solving the Cyprus problem through two recognized states in Cyprus. through two recognized states in Cyprus.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

For Greek Cypriots, winning For Greek Cypriots, winning unilaterally means solving the Cyprus unilaterally means solving the Cyprus problem by establishing a Greek problem by establishing a Greek Cypriot unitary state for the whole Cypriot unitary state for the whole island where the Turkish Cypriots will island where the Turkish Cypriots will be a minoritybe a minority..

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

The impasse in the Cyprus negotiations is not The impasse in the Cyprus negotiations is not only contributing to the blocking of Turkey’s only contributing to the blocking of Turkey’s accession to the EU but it is also undermining accession to the EU but it is also undermining institutional co-operation between the EU institutional co-operation between the EU and NATO. and NATO. In December 2006, European In December 2006, European Council decided to suspend part of Turkey’s Council decided to suspend part of Turkey’s accession negotiations by freezing eight accession negotiations by freezing eight chapters due to Turkey’s denying access to chapters due to Turkey’s denying access to Cypriot vessels and planes to its harbours Cypriot vessels and planes to its harbours and airports.and airports.

Recent DevelopmentsRecent Developments

Meanwhile, Turkey is blocking the Republic Meanwhile, Turkey is blocking the Republic of Cyprus’s membership of NATO. The of Cyprus’s membership of NATO. The ambition expressed by RoC to become a ambition expressed by RoC to become a member of NATO in the NATO Foreign member of NATO in the NATO Foreign Ministers summit in Berlin in April 2011 led Ministers summit in Berlin in April 2011 led to a crisis as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet to a crisis as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu clearly expressed that RoC will Davutoğlu clearly expressed that RoC will not become a member of NATO before a not become a member of NATO before a solution is found to the Cyprus Problem. solution is found to the Cyprus Problem.