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The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research...

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The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October 2015
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Page 1: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.

The Data Have Spoken:Climate Model Forecasts

Have Failed

Dr. Roy W. SpencerPrincipal Research Scientist

The University of Alabama in Huntsville30 October 2015

Page 2: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.

Global Tropospheric Temperatures Monitored since 1979 with satellites

by two separate research groups (UAH, RSS)

Page 3: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.

Climate Models Over-Forecast Global Warmingwhen compared to all 3 types of temperature data

(satellites, radiosondes, near-surface thermometers)

Page 4: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.

The Model Failures Extend to Regional Predictions

e.g. the U.S. CORN BELT…this then leads to exaggerated projections of climate change impacts on agricultural yields.

Page 5: The Data Have Spoken: Climate Model Forecasts Have Failed Dr. Roy W. Spencer Principal Research Scientist The University of Alabama in Huntsville 30 October.

Conclusion

• It is difficult to base energy policy (e.g. the Social Cost of Carbon) on models which are demonstrably wrong in their predictions.


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