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The Death Of Direct Mail

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Talk at the International Fundraising Conference about the coming problems for fundraising direct mail
33
IFC 2005 The Death of Direct Mail David Dixon Director, The Phone Room
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Page 1: The Death Of Direct Mail

IFC 2005

The Death of Direct Mail

David DixonDirector, The Phone Room

Page 2: The Death Of Direct Mail

IFC 2005

The Death of Telephone

FundraisingDavid Dixon

Director, The Phone Room

Page 3: The Death Of Direct Mail

IFC 2005

The Death of Direct Marketing

David DixonDirector, The Phone Room

Page 4: The Death Of Direct Mail

IFC 2005

The Death of Direct Mail

David DixonDirector, The Phone Room

Page 5: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Vote Now! – Mail Volumes in Next 10 years

Page 6: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Vote Now! – Mail Response Rates in Next 10 years

Page 7: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Worst Case Scenario!

Volume

Response Rates

Page 8: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

David Dixon

20 years in fundraising Nicaragua Campaign,Oxfam, Oxford Playhouse

Consultant on fundraising and donor development

Founder/Director of The Phone Room Fundraising, ticketing, marketing

Page 9: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Dorothy Donor

Page 10: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

•Generational Change

Page 11: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

New Media

• Voice over Internet (VOIP)• Videophones• IMS• Interactive TV• SMS/MMS• Mobile phone wallet• Blogs• i-mode

Page 12: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Adoption cycle

Page 13: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

•Technological Change

Page 14: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Race to the Bottom

ROI

Volume

Break even

Page 15: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

•Marginal response rate at high volume

Page 16: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Direct Mail Under Attack

Direct Mail

New Media

New generation

Marginal

response rates

Page 17: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Malcolm Gladwell

The Tipping Point

Page 18: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Tipping Point

• We expect change to be gradual• Change is often sudden and

dramatic• E.g. adoption of e-mail• E.g. murder rate in New York

Page 19: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Tipping Point in Mail Profitability

ROI

Volume

Break even1)

Small fall in

response rates

2) Makes all this volume uneconomic

Page 20: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

What about the Telephone?

• Telephone is non-generational• Telephone (voice) is integral to new

technologies and has become ubiquitous in last 10 years

• The race to the bottom has barely begun

– The telephone is not under attack

Page 21: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Telephone still to reach middle-age

Telephone

New Media

integrationAll generations

Response

rates still high

Page 22: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Telephone and New Technology

• The Telephone is Integrated!

• Current 3G devices are poor, but the next generation will soon change the way we communicate…..

…..as mobile phones and e-mail have done for this generation. i-mode

Page 23: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Importance of Donor Loyalty

• Lifetime value increases• Profitability of acquisition is

improved• Security of income is enhanced• Access to donors for purchase,

campaigning, volunteering etc.

Page 24: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

What Drives Loyalty?

• Satisfaction with service• Appropriate communications• Trust• Sharing the beliefs• Having a personal link• Having a deepened understanding• Having multiple engagements

Adrian Sargeant, Bristol Business School

Page 25: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Increasing Loyalty means CRM

• Inform & inspire • Accurate donor information• Respect donor’s wishes• Develop personal relationships• Customer Service is crucial• Cross-sell

»Be donor-centred

Page 26: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Seth Godin

Permission Marketing

Page 27: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Ideal Donor Department

• Is media neutral• Is Donor-centred• Integrates all data and media• Focuses on lifetime value• Manages multiple engagements• Uses technology to emulate major

donor fundraising

Page 28: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

The Problem for Donor Programmes

• Direct mail dominates direct marketing• Most direct marketing gurus are really

direct mail specialists• Most strategists in NFPs and agencies

are direct mail specialists• Majority of direct acquisition budget is

allocated to mail• Most donor lists are mail generated

Page 29: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Direct Mail Distorts Investment

• Over-investment in Mail compared with other media

• Over-investment in donor recruitment vs. donor development

• Focus on the medium not on the donor

• Under-investment in integration• Under-investment in technology

Page 30: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Charles Handy

Murphy’s Bar

Page 31: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Page 32: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

IMHO• Direct Mail effectiveness will decline• The decline will be rapid and could be sudden• The phone will grow in importance• So will all new media• Donor development will become more important

as acquisition becomes more difficult• The future lies in integrated contact centres• The donor will drive direct marketing, not the

mail programme

Page 33: The Death Of Direct Mail

David Dixon [email protected].

ukIFC 2005

Contact

David Dixon

[email protected]


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