Solutions for a low-carbon transitionand prospects for COP-21

The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP)

Henri WAISMAN

IDDRI

Astana Economic Forum – 21 May 2015Session: Decarbonization and carbon trading - the drivers of the "new economy".

2°C , a political target

“Deep cuts in global GHG emissions are required according to science, and as documented in IPCC AR4, […] so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels” (Cancun agreement - décision 1/CP.16) No plan B at political level Compatibility of national commitments with 2°C

Global peaking around 2020 At current pace (36 GtCO2 in 2010), budget exhausted in 15 - 40 years

Global emissions in absolute: divided by more than 2 by 2050 (36 →15Gt) Emissions per capita: divided by more than 3 (4,9 → 1,6tCO2/cap) Emissions per GDP: divided by almost 10 (400 →50 gCO2/$)

Carbon neutrality in the second half of XXIe century Profound transformations

How to reach 2°C?Deep Decarbonization Pathways

Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs) = internally coherent visions of large-scale & long-term low-carbon transformation of the energy system around 4 pillars

Structural change Energy efficiency Decarbonization of energy supply (electricity, fuels) Fuel switching towards low-carbon energies

What combination of measures? Implementation and operational aspects (techniques, finance,

politicies)

The role of Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs)

Support the national definition of the INDC Consistency of national contributions with 2°C (long-term) Provide information that complements and enrichs the short-term

and aggregate representation given in NDCs Enable discussions on national mitigation strategies to increase

ambitionat the country-scale (with different groups of national

stakeholders supporting different visions of the transition) with the international community (other Parties, sectoral experts,

practitioners…) Identify strategic domains for global action in support of national

transitions

DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS PROJECT – GENERAL PRESENTATION

Objectives

Support/inform the elaboration and implementation of decarbonization strategies consistent with the 2°C No ex-ante allocation of carbon budget from the top National deep transformations (≠ marginal adjustments from

current trends) + Transition challenges

Favor the appropriation by policymakers and stakeholders of challenges and opportunities of their low-carbon transition Improve learning inside countries (Cf. nationales debates on

energy and climate) Structure dialog among countries (Cf. dynamic negotiation

process after Paris)

Approach

Elaborate decarbonization pathways that are National : articulation development / mitigation

National circumstances, interests and needs: socio-eco conditions, development priorities, infrastructure stock, resource endowment

Transparent : explicit contentTransformations disaggregated by sector and by driver of

decrabonization Long-term: backcasting to 2050

Tension between initial situation and long-term demanding target

(Current) Organisation

A joint initiative IDDRI / SDSN 16 countries (70% of 2010 CO2 emissions )

16 country teams, independent of their governments Expert judgment National models Policy relevance

DDPP analysis after 2015

Extending the number and types of countries Different levels of development Different challenges and interests in the energy field Beyond energy

Help to structure the national debates around energy/climate with diverse stakeholders carrying different visions

Support capacity building within the countries to ensure the availability of assessment tools able to inform discussions

New scales of analysis (cities, regions…)

DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS PROJECT – 2015 ANALYSIS

www.deepdecarbonization.org

DDPP analysis in 2015

Two types of reports : National reports (May-June 2015) Global synthesis report (September 2015)

Refining and extend the analysis of national decarbonization trajectories Technical and structural assumptions Socio-economic dimensions National and global financial needs Policy and measures at national and global scales Uncertainties and dynamic adjustment of trajectories

Some high-level insights from the DDPP (1/2)

12/9/14 13

Deep decarbonization consistent with the 2°C target is feasible in all contexts– DDPs can be defined in all countries of analysis– Countries have a wide array of choices (societal preferences). – Ambitious early action is required in all contexts

The implementation of deep decarbonization is realistic and accessible– Short-term action relies on already existing solutions – Energy sector investments are only marginally higher than current

trends, but their structure must change substantially – Long-term DD relies on technologies that are not currently available

but the portfolio of required solutions is already known

Some high-level insights from the DDPP (2/2)

12/9/14 14

Deep decarbonization can favor the emergence of a desired energy model for economic development – Sensitivity to volatile and uncontrolled external conditions. – Decarbonization and domestic socio-economic development

priorities can be addressed consistently– Improved energy access and tackling energy poverty.

International cooperation is crucial– Clear and early collective signal to favor alignment of expectations– Globally coordinated technology push to develop a wide portfolio

of low-carbon technologies (no silver bullet)– Regulation of trade patterns to avoid extreme polarization of

carbon-intensive goods

BACKUP SLIDES

12/9/14 15

Emission pathways for the 15 countries

Important reductions 2050/2010

o -45% in absoluteo -56% per capitao -88% per unit of GDP … but not enough for the

2°C target

CO2 Emissions (Gt)

IPCC estimates (world)

15 DDPs

Cumul2010-2050

825 792

Deep decarbonization requires all technical pillars

Technical solutions are different across the countries

The short-term challenge

Deep decarbonization is compatible with continued economic growth

Deep decarbonization is compatible with access to energy services

(ex: mobility)

Beyond technical improvements: structural change and development

styles