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The Demographic Transition— A Contemporary Look at
a Classic Model
A lesson plan from “Making Population Real” by the Population Reference Bureau
Supported by the World Population Fund of the Minneapolis Foundation
Today’s Agenda
1. Introduce objectives and teaching standards
2. Describe and explore the “classic” model of demographic transition
3. Explore alternative patterns from today’s developing countries
4. Discuss the use of models
5. Introduce Making Population Real and PRB
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Issues Population growth Development
Population Concepts
Classic model of demographic transition Patterns of changing birth and death
rates
Tools Line graphs Research and analysis
Objectives
To understand the classic demographic transition (DT) model
To explain assumptions and limitations of the classic DT model
To construct graphs of contemporary demographic change
To explain contemporary demographic patterns in the context of the classic DT model
Teaching Standards
AP Geography Standard Addressed
Unit II– Population UnitB. Population growth and decline over time and
space4. Regional variations of demographic transitions
AP and the Advanced Placement Program are registered trademarks of the College Entrance Examination Board which was not involved in the production of these lesson plans.
What is the Demographic Transition? The shift from highhigh to low mortality and fertility Based on the experience of Western Europe Began by Warren Thompson in 1929 Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein A sign of socio-economic progress?
The Classic Demographic Transition
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Time
Naturalincrease
Birth rate
Death rate
Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.
Examine the Model
A Model is … a representation of some phenomenon of the real
world made in order to facilitate an understanding of its workings
a simplified and generalized version of real events, from which the incidental detail has been removed
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
What population patterns are revealed in the traditional Demographic Transition model?
Assignment: Construct a graph of birth and death rates in
England from 1750-2000.
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
Demographic Transition in Sweden
and Mexico
Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
SwedenBirth Rate
Death Rate
MexicoBirth Rate
Death Rate
Births/Deaths per 1,000
1750
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic Transition
How useful is the classic model of demographic transition in today’s world?
Assignment: Construct a graph showing the birth and death
rates for one of four assigned countries.
Data for Demographic Transition
Is the Demographic Transition Model Still Useful?
How well does the classic model work? Is it a useful framework for developing
countries? Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe and the United States? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by
industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?
Making Population Real – Lesson Plan 2:
The Demographic TransitionActivities:
1. Explaining Population Change: Graph changing birth & death rates in classic model (England) Graph & compare rates for Sweden & Mexico
2. Global Population Patterns and Demographic Transitions: Calculate natural increase by continent & country Compare demographic with economic indicators
3. Can an Old Model Explain New Trends? Compare national population patterns to model
Making Population Real Lesson Plans Population Fundamentals – Building a Foundation
Populations in the Path of Natural Hazards
The Demographic Transition –
A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model
HIV/AIDS and Contemporary Population Dynamics
Population Policy – Progress Since Cairo
People on the Move
Global Migration Patterns
About Making Population Real
Free, on-line curricula utilize up-to-date real-world data and articles from a variety of web-based resources:
United Nations (UNICEF, UNHCR, WHO, etc.) U.S. Census Bureau National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration PRB research and publications
Lead author Martha B. Sharma, a teacher Recipient of the 2006 Geographic Excellence in
Media Award from National Council for Geographic Education
www.prb.org/educators
Population Reference Bureau
Informs people around the world about population, health, and the environment, and empowers them to use that information to advance the well-being of current and future generations.
Analyzes demographic data and research to provide objective, accurate, and up-to-date population information in a format that is easily understood by educators, journalists, and decision makers alike.