The Demographic Transition Model

Ivana Uzoka

The Demographic Transition Model

• Demographic Transition Models display a country’s process of change in a society’s population.

• The demographic transition model consist of four stages• Stage One: No Natural

Increase• Stage Two: High Natural

Increase• Stage Three: Moderate

Natural Increase• Stage Four: No Natural

Increase• Stage Five(?): Decrease

in Natural Increase

* once a country has moved on to another stage, it cannot degrees, unless due to a supernatural force, such as a world war

Stage One: Low Growth

Pre-Industrial Era

Most people in this period depended on hunting and gathering

The very high birth rates and death rates produced virtually no long-term natural increase

No present-day country is still in stage one

Stage Two: High Growth

Transitional Era

Mainly caused by the agricultural revolution, the population went from hunter gathers to sedentary farmers

Two waves of countries entering the demographic transition Counties in Europe and North America enter stage two after

1750 as a result of the Industrial Revolution African, Asian, and Latin American countries entered in the

second half of the 20th century as result of the Medical Revolution

Rapidly declining death rates combined with very high birth rates birth rates produce a very high natural increase

Stage Three: Moderate Growth

Transitional Era

Caused by and increase in jobs due to a good economy.

Women now have access to education and are allowed to work

A society enters stage three when people choose to have fewer children

Many North American and European countries entered stage three in the late 20th century

Birth rates rapidly decline while death rates continue to decline and the rate of natural increase rates begin to moderate

Stage Four: Low Growth

Industrial Era

Caused by a change in lifestyle, the population as a whole are having less kids, yet medical advances have decreased the death rate

A country reaches stage four of the demographic transition when the birth rate declines to the point where it equals the death rate.

Zero Population Growth: The the natural increase rate approaches or equals zero

Most European countries have moved to stage four

Stage Five (?)

Next possible stage in the demographic transition

A country enters “stage five” of the demographic transition when the birth rate declines below the death rate and there is a negative rate of natural increase

A few European countries such as Denmark and Germany have entered stage five

As in Stage Four, this transition is caused by a change in lifestyle. The population as a whole are having less kids, yet medical advances have decreased the death rate