The Difference Between a Riot and a Revolutionis an Engineer

Patrick D. Krolak, DScProf. Emeritus CS, U Mass LowellFaculty Fellow US DOT Volpe CenterRichard D. Wright, National ExpertTraffic & Information ManagementUS DOT Volpe CenterDesigning for Security in the Age of Terrorism

A RioterGets mad and runs with the mob.

An EngineerBrings a scientific approachUnderstands design goals, constraints, and resourcesUses analysis and testing to plan and carry out a design that minimizes risk and/or maximizes rewardAccess to detailed technical knowledge

US is waging war on terrorismAsymmetric The aggressor:Few in numbers, Limited in wealth and resources, But uses an engineers tools to enable a battle with a large powerful nation with vast resources and technologyPicks time and place of attackAggressor needs to win once.The Nation must:Defend everywhere, Win all the time, and Preserve the quality of life.

Designing a Civilian Response CenterTerrorism not the only issue.A response center that must address multi-levels and multiple agencies of government has special problems.To successfully respond to terrorism and disaster -- C4I:Collaboration, Coordination, Communication, Computer aided decision support system, and anIntelligence and knowledge base enterprise network.

Recent Problems Requiring Large Scale Response9/11 California Forest FiresThe black out of the East Coast and Midwest.Hurricanes Katrina & RitaResponseRecoveryAvian Influenza & Pandemics

Common Responder ProblemsDifficulty in Collaboration Ill be damned if Ill let him do my job!Difficulty in Coordination What the hells going on? What IS my job? Incompatible channels of communications and Failure to appreciate engineering principles

Integrated Decision Management System (IDMS) -- C4IEmergency Response Center forAll levels of government with Emphasis on transportation issues.Designed for daily use as well as major disastersMust provide operations, planning, and training.

IDMS Operates at Every LevelAviationMaritimeHazMatPipelineWeatherLikely Numberof TSSD Centers2 X National9 X Regional50 X State60 X MetroData passedUPTo fill gaps &Provide detailNationalRegionalStateCounty/MetroMunicipalityFood & DrugBio-defense& DiseaseNationalScale DataData passedDOWNTo provide context& expertiseResource Availability & DeploymentLocalScale DataRailHighwayEvent Location & Extent

Inspiration for IDMSA collaboration between FAA Air Traffic Management, the Air lines, and other government agencies known as: Enhanced Traffic Management System Collaborative Decision-MakingETMS/CDM

ETMS/CDM

Enterprise Information network ETMS that tracks every air plane in Northern Hemisphere Meets via telephone conference every two hours and provides a consensus weather forecast and a plan of operation for the next 2-8 hours.Uses a playbook (like in football) that allows the airlines and air traffic control to broadcast and implement a Play in minutes.Allows Air Traffic Management to close US air space in less than an hour landing over 7000 planes in US and Canada

A Parallel DevelopmentUS Army Stryker Brigade for urban warfareFast armor on wheelsEnterprise level intelligence networkCommon Situational display and uses 3-D graphics models of the urban areaFlattens the command structure and allows for more decision making by those on the scene.

The IDMS Proposed Dashboard User Interface (Vizrt)

Collaboration(Telepartner International)

Emergency Management System

PublicNetwork

STATE

TPI Swtich/Hub

NationalGuard

SEMA

FIRE,EMS

LawEnforcement

FEDERAL

CustomsFBI

LOCAL

Communication (Telepartner International)

FEDERAL

STATE

DOT, DOC, DMV

LOCALRMSCAD

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TeleServer

Message Switch

Regional Database

Central Administration

Member Organizations

CAD / RMS / COLLECT

NCIC / NLETS / COLLECT

Planning and Training(Entity Networks)

The LNG TankerA Typical LNG Tanker is 950' Long - That's More Than 3 Football Fields

The LNG Tanker

Prof. James Fays Est. of LNG FirePhysical parameters of a typical LNG tanker spill Single tankSpill volume 14,300 cubic meters = 3.8 million gal.Fire duration --3.3 minutesMaximum pool area --180,000 square meters = 44 acresMaximum pool radius -- 340 meters = 1115 feetAverage heat release rate --1,500,000 megawattsDistance to average heat flux of 5 kilowatts per square meter1100 meters = 3600 feet

LNG Example (Volpe Center & SGI)

Computer Aided Decision Support 3-D Virtual BostonModels of over 12K buildings (TerraSim.com)

Sophisticated modelsNaval Research Labs CT Analyst Plume CFD model Volpe Crash Worthiness ModelsVolpe RR and Subway modelsAssorted fire, blast, and plume models

Geographic Information Systems(GIS) Geo-Spatial dataMassGISBoston Redevelopment AuthorityMetro Area Planning CouncilNew York City Office of Emergency ManagementUS DOT Volpe CenterOak Ridge National Laboratory

Coordination InputsLive tracking:Air traffic, Marine, Land Roadway/Rail/OtherTraffic sensors & Environmental sensorsVideo Traffic Cameras, and Security Cameras

Volpe & Silicon Graphics IncCooperative Research And Development Agreement (CRADA) R. Wright Volpe CRADA Mgr and National ExpertJ. Meister SGI CRADA Mgr.SGI supplied super computer hdw --2 ONYX Graphics Eng., 2 Altix (16 p, 32p), 3 TB of mass storage, and a 3300W display Later, SGI PrismSGI Prof Services supplied early graphics support and development.

ConclusionTo counter asymmetric threat whether natural or terroristMust Provide Responders with best technology integratingBroad Sensor & IntelligenceData Warehouse/ClearinghouseFlexible, responsive User InterfaceCommunicationsSophisticated Simulation & ModelingMust Plan, Train to Use Operationally Every DayMust Inter-Operate at Every Level of Government

Spills and Fires from LNG Tankers in Fall River (MA)By Professor James A. Fay, Massachusetts Institute of Technology August 26, 2003Introduction:The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns about the potential for terrorists attacks on the energy system infrastructure of the United States. In particular, the possibility of the use of a boat bomb, such as was used against the USS Cole in 2000 and the oil tanker Limburg in 2002, to attack a marine liquid fuel tanker in a U.S. harbor, was publicly discussed in Massachusetts, where both LNG (liquefied natural gas) and oil product tankers land cargoes in Boston harbor. The consequences of such an incident could be severe, and present a potential problem of great magnitude for public safety officials.The safety concerns for the public stem from the effects of the burning of the tanker's combustible liquid cargo, which would certainly escape from cargo holds punctured by the force of an explosion. The ensuing fire can spread on the sea surface toward nearby shorelines, and its thermal radiation could produce bodily harm to exposed individuals on shore and possibly set fire to shoreside buildings.The fire that would ensue from a boat bomb attack on a tanker would be of unprecedented size and intensity. Like the attack on the World Trade Center in New York City, there exists no relevant industrial experience with fires of this scale from which to project measures for securing public safety. Lacking such experience, we must rely on scientific understanding to predict their characteristics, based upon laboratory and field experiments of much smaller fires.The author has developed a mathematical model for the spills and fires from liquefied fuel marine tankers which is based upon published scientific papers in peer-reviewed journals (Fay, Model of Spills and Fires from LNG and Oil Tankers, Journal of Hazardous Materials, B96, 171-188, 2003). The purpose of this article is to apply this research to the case of Fall River (MA) harbor. 5 Kilowatts/m2 will cause third degree skin burns in 13 sec. and death in 40. Buildings will burn. Hence 1.1 meter radius will be used to calculate the danger..