The Differential Trajectories of High School
Dropouts and Graduates
By:
Gregory P. Hickman, Ph.D.Mitchell Bartholomew
Jennifer MathwigRandy Heinrich, Ph.D.
The Rodel Community ScholarsArizona State University at the West
Campus
Research Questions
• Are there differences in the developmental trajectories of high school graduates compared to high school dropouts?
• If so, where do these differences occur developmentally in time and across which variables?
• If differences do exist developmentally in time and across variables which variables exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts?
• Of the variables that exhibit the greatest differences between high school graduates and dropouts which of these variables accounts for the most variance for dropping out of high school?
• Do high school graduates and dropouts academically perform in the classroom with equal rigor parallel to standardized testing?
Method of Study
• Obtained familial, disciplinary, and educational data• All data were from student K-12 files• Partnered with County Juvenile Probation Office for official data• Sampled 4 cohorts (2002-2005)• Randomly selected 60 graduates and 60 dropouts from 4 cohorts• n=119 (one student was disqualified from study – no data)• n represents approximately 25% of total population of 4 cohorts• Examined the longitudinal developmental trajectory of both graduates and dropouts across time and all variables of study.• Independent t-tests examined mean differences between groups• Regression Analysis examined the predictive nature of variables between high school dropouts and graduates
Family & Demographics
.57
.38.51 .47
.35.22
.88
.29
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
MaritalStatus
Gender Born InArizona
Ethnicity
DropoutsGraduates
0=Married, Female, Born in AZ, and Caucasian1=Divorced, Male, Not born in AZ, and all other ethnic backgrounds
Family & Demographics
1.98
1.25
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Siblings Older Siblings
DropoutsGraduates
2.58
1.58
Vocational Courses
.49
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Did They Take VocationalCourses?
DropoutsGraduates
.61
0=Yes, 1=No
Non-Core Courses 1st & 2nd Semester 9th Grade
2.83.11
1.95
2.91
4.36
6.02
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1st Sem 2nd Sem Total
DropoutsGraduates
Retained K-8?
.62
.94
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Were they retained?
DropoutsGraduates
0=Yes, 1=No
Absenteeism K-8
12.13 12.05 11.79
14.20
10.8612.65
14.34
17.08
19.84
10.108.96 8.20 8.87
10.11 10.38 9.66 9.547.45
0
5
10
15
20
25
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Total Absence Days K-8
124.28
83.17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
TotalDays
DropoutsGraduates
Qualitative Reading Grades K-2
.60
.06.25
.13.20
.030
0.5
1
1.5
2
K 1 2
DropoutsGraduates
0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory
Quantitative Reading Grades 1-8
2.662.50 2.57
2.77
2.402.23
1.621.95
3.61 3.62
3.22 3.112.87
3.182.84 2.85
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative Spelling Grades K-2
.170
.22.04 0 .06
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
K 1 2
DropoutsGraduates
0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory
Quantitative Spelling Grades 1-5
2.422.10
2.96 2.972.78
3.313.58
3.31 3.343.19
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 2 3 4 5
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative English Grades K-2
.33
0.20
.09
.64
.030
0.5
1
1.5
2
K 1 2
DropoutsGraduates
0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory
Quantitative English Grades 1-8
2.67
1.56
2.68 2.812.58
2.40
1.47 1.48
3.463.75
3.15 3.19 3.13 3.172.81 2.82
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative Writing Grades K-2
.29
0 .07 .03 0 00
0.5
1
1.5
2
K 1 2
DropoutsGraduates
0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory
Quantitative Writing Grades 1-5
2.85
2.23 2.152.43
2.10
3.39
2.56 2.56
3.783.46
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 2 3 4 5
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative Math Grades K-2
.43
.06 .08 .04 .080
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
K 1 2
DropoutsGraduates
0=Satisfactory, 1=Needs Improvement, 2=Unsatisfactory
Quantitative Math Grades 1-8
2.67
1.66
2.912.74
2.472.22
1.35 1.25
3.493.67
3.103.27
2.98 3.07
2.652.33
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative Social Studies Grades K-2
Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten through 2nd Grade
Quantitative Social Studies Grades 2-8
2.00
2.622.80
2.34 2.23
1.281.05
3.00
3.40 3.313.05
3.31
2.882.60
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Qualitative Science Grades K-2
Graduates & Dropouts all performed at Satisfactory from Kindergarten
through 2nd Grade
Quantitative Science Grades 2-8
2.502.71 2.60
2.402.14 2.00
1.63
4.00
3.28 3.31
2.933.30
2.872.70
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Reading
Scores
46.13 43.2735.53
44.4439.33
54.72 54.37 54.69 57.2053.07
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8 9
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Total Math Scores
32.2838.22 34.71 37.91
42.75
41.20
53.45 53.50 55.6860.06
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8 9
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Language Scores
40.1932.54 30.92 34.10 34.79
44.66 46.3351.88 54.12
47.47
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8 9
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Vocabulary Scores
45.70 44.34
33.45
42.9738.66
56.10 52.87 53.02 50.93 49.90
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8 9
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Read Comp/Critical
Analysis Scores
44.05 43.0436.91
46.5839.02
51.91 54.66 56.1461.68
55.47
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8 9
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-8 NCE Problem Solving
Strategies
35.0043.24
36.79 37.71
45.34
56.05 53.7757.76
0
20
40
60
80
100
5 6 7 8
Dropouts Graduates
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Mechanics/Usage of
Language
.60
1
.53
.93
.57
1.2
.74
1.38
.67
1.18
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
5 6 7 8 9
DropoutsGraduates
0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average
Stanford Grades 5-9 NCE Interpretation of
Reading/Language
.91
1.31
.93
1.2
.62
1.2
.94
1.33
.77
1.27
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
5 6 7 8 9
DropoutsGraduates
0=Below Average, 1=Average, 2=Above Average
Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Reading – Grades 1-
6
43.28
20.8525.07
61.96
74.94
43.00
54.75
39.9247.86
67.61
81.29
61.09
0
20
40
60
80
100
1 2 3 4 5 6
Dropouts Graduates
Iowa Basic Skills Test NCE Scores Math –
Grades 2-6
17.00
30.13
62.47
30.4025.50
43.1648.30
62.35 60.4753.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
2 3 4 5 6
Dropouts Graduates
Grade Point Average Grades 9-12
1.27 1.31 1.231.01 0.88 0.92 0.77
1.19 1.29
2.75 2.73 2.81 2.69 2.80 2.75 2.692.98 2.86
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0
9thGrade-
1stSem
9thGrade-
2ndSem
10thGrade-
1stSem
10thGrade-
2ndSem
11thGrade-
1stSem
11thGrade-
2ndSem
12thGrade-
1stSem
12thGrade-
2ndSem
Total
Dropouts Graduates
Grade Level Dropped Out of High School?
High School Dropouts exited school at grade level 10.43
High School English 1-4 Grades
1.12 0.980.77
1.00
2.49
2.882.69
2.24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Eng1 Eng2 Eng3 Eng4
Dropouts Graduates
Other High School English Data
1.6
4.0
.76
2.26
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
DropoutsGraduates
Highest English
Course Taken
Grade in Highest EnglishCourse Taken
Other High School Math Data
.31
2.22
0
1
2
3
4
5
Highest Math Course Taken
DropoutsGraduates
0=Pre-Algebra, 1=Algebra 1, 2=Geometry, 3=Algebra 2,4=Trigonometry, 5=Calculus
Grade in Highest High School Math Course Taken?
1.02
2.04
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
DropoutsGraduates
Personal Data
.31.22
.15.07 .08
.030
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Mobility Title 1 ELL
DropoutsGraduates
0=No, 1=Yes
Personal Data
.34
.78
.41
.28
.15.10
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
Extra Act FRL SPED
DropoutsGraduates
0=No, 1=Yes
Did the Student Have Discipline Issues?
.82
.26
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
DropoutsGraduates
0=No, 1=Yes
Grade First Identified as Discipline Problem?
4.66
6.25
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
DropoutsGraduates
Was Student Placed in Diversion Programs, Standard Probation, or
Intense Probation?
0=No, 1=Yes
.36
.21 .24
.05.12
00
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
DiversionPrograms
StandardProbation
IntenseProbation
DropoutsGraduates
First Statistically Significant Differences Between High School
Graduates & Dropouts
Absenteeism – KindergartenReading – KindergartenSpelling – 2nd GradeEnglish – 2nd GradeWriting – KindergartenMath – KindergartenSocial Studies – 3rd GradeScience – 4th GradeStanford 6 – All strands of testIowa Basic Skills Test – 3rd Grade Reading & Math
All High School variables from 9th grade 1st semester
10 Largest Statistical Differences Between Graduates
& Dropouts
1. Did they take a foreign language?2. GPA 9th Grade 1st Semester3. Did they have discipline issues?4. 7th Grade Reading grade5. 8th Grade English grade6. 8th Grade Absenteeism 7. 7th Grade Math grade8. Total Non-Core classes taken in 9th Grade9. Did they participate in extra curricular activities?10.Were they retained?
Which Top 10 Variables Have Most Predictive
Power?
1. Foreign Language2. English 8th Grade3. Absenteeism 8th Grade4. Total Non-Core Classes 9th Grade Year5. Extra Curricular Activities
These 5 variables account for 78% of the variance of high schooldropouts
Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing
Subject Dropouts Graduates
Iowa 1st Grade Reading -.27 .091st Grade Reading Grade -.80 .33
Iowa 6th Grade Reading -.55 .206th Grade Reading Grade -.63 .36
Dropouts perform significantly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 1st grade reading. Whereas, graduates perform significantly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. The same holds true for dropouts in 6th grade, however the margin is not significant. Finally, while dropouts make slight improvements in their classroom grades they decrease significantly in their standardized testing over time.
Standardized Values
Grade Subject Performance vs. Standardized Testing
Subject Dropouts Graduates
Stanford 5th Grade Math -.28 .245th Grade Math Grade -.35 .19
Stanford 8th Grade Math -.57 .298th Grade Math Grade -.73 .30
Dropouts perform slightly lower in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability in 5th grade math. Whereas, graduates perform slightly higher in the classroom compared to their standardized testing ability. As time progresses graduates achieve with equal rigor on standardized testing and in the classroom, whereas dropouts significantly achieve less in the classroom overtime compared to their standardized testing ability. Not only do dropouts decrease in their classroom and standardized performances over time, but the gap in classroom performance becomes further behind their standardized testing ability.
Standardized Values
Key Findings of Study
• Academic differences between high school dropouts and graduates seem to surface well before students enter high school. In fact, according to these results, differences between the two groups are profound even in Kindergarten.
• While the two groups appear to start out with measurable differences, academic differences seem to diverge even more in middle school grades
• The differences between the two groups seem to be most apparent in:• Attendance and absenteeism in middle school
• Standardized testing
• Discipline records (probation and diversion)
• Aspects of family life such as presence of siblings and parents’ marital status
• Student characteristics such as ELL and SPED status, SES and mobility
• High school course choices (registering for core vs. non core classes)
• Measurable gaps in GPA across all grades (K-12)
Take 5
1. Pre-Kindergarten2. Middle School3. Attendance4. Class choices 9th grade year5. Student/Family Demographics
Conclusion
The analysis of this study provided a better understanding of the long-term impacts of early childhood educational progress on high school retention. By doing so, germane areas of success and failure throughout a students academic tenure were identified, informing educators about appropriate implementation strategies for education programs and interventions that could increase the likelihood of high school graduation.
Thank You!
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