Global Automotive Trends 2013
The “Digital Car”
Connectivity Hype and E-Car Recession
New York, March 2013
March 2013 2005 – March 2013 Period
Methodology Combining international expert views with global media trends
Research Institute PRIME Research in cooperation with the World Car Awards
Global Automotive Trends 2013
World Car Awards
Automotive Expert Panel
PRIME Research
Automotive Media Panel
66 Top Automotive Journalists
All World Car of the Year Jurors and
Members of the Steering Committee
Top 1.000 Opinion Leading Media
TV, Print, Online Media
EU (G5), USA, BRIC, Japan Countries
Full Benchmark [> 100 brands] Brands
All automotive coverage Scope
Trend 1: Connectivity | The “Digital Car“
Infotainment Systems are essential to appeal to new and young customers.
Advanced Driver Assistance Systems with focus on Safety are key.
Scepticism towards autonomous driving.
Trend 2: Efficiency
Fuel efficiency technologies are top trending topics in 2013.
Affordable light weight technologies are seen as an important addition.
Trend 3: Plug-in Hybrids
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles are the most promising technology of today.
Pure Battery Electric Vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: ongoing “e-car recession”.
But: Four new e-cars highly anticipated in 2013:
Top Automotive Trends 2013 | Overview
Tesla Model S
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf
Renault Zoe
Global Automotive Trends 2013 4
Infotainment Systems
Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems
Content
Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars
The “Digital Car”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 5
Connectivity
Efficiency
Plug-in Hybrids
0% 10% 20% 30%
Design
Light Weight
E-Cars
Budget Cars
Marketing, Image
Safety
Cost Savings
Automotive Trends 2013 Connectivity, Efficiency and Plug-in Hybrids are the Top Trends in 2013.
2013
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”
Top
Trends
Top 3
Global Automotive Trends 2013 6
Efficiency
Connectivity
Connectivity
Efficiency
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
E-Cars
Plug-in Hybrids
Cost Savings
Design
Budget Cars
Safety
Marketing, Image
Light Weight
Automotive Trends | Comparison 2012 to 2013 E-Cars are losing credit in 2013. Light Weight made it into the top 5 trends for the first time.
2012
“What will be the most important trends in the automotive industry in 2012 / 2013?”
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Plug-in Hybrids
Design
Light Weight
E-Cars
Budget Cars
Marketing, Image
Safety
Cost Savings
2013
► Decreasing
importance
Top 2
Top 5
Global Automotive Trends 2013 7
Infotainment Systems
Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems
Content
Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars
The “Digital Car”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 8
Ongoing “E-Car Recession” Battery electric vehicles are facing increasing scepticism: they arrived in “reality”.
2,0%
2,9%
4,8% 5,1%
4,6% 4,3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100% = Total automotive media coverage in respective year
Media Panel | Share of coverage Expert Panel | Key quotes
Emerging Trend Hype Slowdown
“Renault Zoe - If it wins the resistance against
EV in the European market, the doors for this
kind of car will be open worldwide.”
“The death of electric engines.”
“Backpedaling on electrics without losing face and
while getting most out of the huge investments made.”
“Their market-share is irrelevant and none
offer technological breakthroughs.”
“Just delivering high-volume, small-car
performance and comfort at premium mid-
segment prices won't work for any of them.”
“Will electrification be identified as a failure?”
“The continual, gradual electrification of the motor car.”
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
Global Automotive Trends 2013 9
Plug-in hybrids
Electric vehicles with
range extender
Fuel cell vehicles
Battery electric vehicles
1,88
2,42
0,67
0,44
2,16
1,54
-0,02
-0,42
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Most promising technology: plug-in hybrids Plug-in hybrids are the most promising technology of today. Full electric vehicles are facing increasing
scepticism.
“From your point of view, what are the most promising powertrain options regarding e-mobility?”
very poor very good mixed
2012 Expert Panel
2013 Expert Panel
“Plug-in hybrids will be the most popular
theme in 2013.”
+
“Plug-in hybrids are currently on a
winning path.”
+
Global Automotive Trends 2013 10
Tesla Model S
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf
Renault Zoe
Chevrolet Volt
smart ed
VW e-Golf
VW XL1
MB SLS electric drive
Volvo V60 PHEV
Mahindra Reva E20
Renault Twizy
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Top 4 EV
models in 2013
Seen as a possible breakthrough-model
Price leadership
Groundbreaking new concept
Range, performance
2013 Expert Panel
“From your point if view, what are the most important EV models this year?”
Top New Energy Cars Tesla Model S, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe are highly regarded e-cars in 2013.
Global Automotive Trends 2013 11
Japan
Germany
USA
France
China
UK
Italy
Spain
2,11
1,34
1,24
1,09
0,91
0,69
-0,45
-0,93
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Japan is the key driving market for e-mobility Japan is seen as the key driving market behind e-mobility, followed by Germany and the USA. China
follows in a distant fifth.
“Which markets will be key drivers for e-mobility?”
2012 Expert Panel
very poor very good mixed
Global Automotive Trends 2013 12
Infotainment Systems
Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems
Content
Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars
The “Digital Car”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 13
Internet-based
Infotainment
Systems
Driver Assistance
Navigation
Communication
Connectivity Trends 2013 Internet-based infotainment systems will be the most important connectivity topic in 2013 – in
addition to advanced driver assistance systems.
“What will be the most important connectivity trends in the automotive industry in 2013?”
0% 20% 40% 60%
2013
Global Automotive Trends 2013 14
“Yes, as it becomes a priority for
young buyers.” “It is becoming a key factor,
because younger people do not care
on powertrains, maximum speed and
emotional driving anymore.”
“Not yet but is going to grow once
they sort out the basics.”
“No. Ease of use is, but connectivity
is not critical. It's also very difficult to
communicate, given that average
readers just want to know if they can
plug the phone in or not.”
Already
[29%]
Increasingly
[42%]
Not yet
[17%] No
[12%]
Connectivity is a key factor in evaluating a car For 71% of automotive journalists, connectivity already is or is quickly becoming a key factor in
evaluating a car.
“Is connectivity a key factor in evaluating a car?”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 15
Infotainment Systems
Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems
Content
Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars
The “Digital Car”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 16
Brake Assist Systems
Pre-Crash Systems
Intelligent Lights
Pedestrian Detection
Blind Spot Detection
Adaptive Cruise Control
Automated Crash Reporting
Traffic Sign Recognition
Attention Assist
Nightvision Systems
Lane Keeping Systems
Park Assist
Autonomous Driving
1,98
1,84
1,73
1,59
1,57
1,55
1,35
1,31
1,06
1,04
0,92
0,73
-0,16
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Advanced Driver Assistance ‘Brake assistance’, ‘pre-crash systems’ and ‘intelligent lights’ are the top safety trends 2013.
‘Autonomous Driving’ is evaluated most sceptically.
“How important and desirable are the following ‘Advanced Driver Assistance’ features from your point of view?”
Top Safety
Features
not important at all very important mixed
2013 Expert Panel
Global Automotive Trends 2013 17
“Yes - manufacturer's are moving
more and more in that direction”
“In certain environments that can be
supported by infrastructure, yes.”
“Yes, but fortunately well after I am
retired.”
“No. Not completely because of unique
challenges of certain driving situations
that only humans can handle.”
Definitely
[47%]
Yes, under certain
conditions
[23%]
Yes, but I
dread that day!
[19%]
No
[11%]
Autonomous Driving 89% of the journalists believe in the self-driving car in the future, yet 19% ‘dread that day’ and 11%
are completely sceptical.
“Do you believe that vehicles will drive by themselves some day?”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 18
Infotainment Systems
Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems
Content
Top Automotive Trends New Energy Cars
The “Digital Car”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 19
USB-Audio Interface
Web-Based Traffic Information
Bluetooth Audio Streaming
Web Access (3G/4G connectivity)
Web-Based Infotainment
Webradio
Satellite Radio
Access to Search Engines
Apps
Operator Services
(e.g. reservations, bookings)
2,27
2,22
2,08
2,00
1,24
1,20
1,06
1,00
0,76
0,55
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Infotainment Features Audio streaming from personal devices like smartphones or iPods/MP3 players is clearly preferred over
radio options like ‘Webradio’ or ‘Sattelite Radio’.
“How important and desirable are the following in-car infotainment features from your point of view?”
not important at all very important mixed
2013 Expert Panel
Global Automotive Trends 2013 20
“No, I should think myself what I want to do.”
“Absolutely yes.”
“A qualified yes. The vehicle knows (for
the airbags) if the passenger seat is
occupied--why can't the passenger be
allowed to enter data while in motion?”
“Some. The complicated ones.”
“Some of them, yes (e.g.
access to internet, facebook).”
“Yes, some of them should be
disabled and specially ones
that need you to take your
eyes off the road to look at
things that one can't decipher
with feel specially touch screen
systems. For these systems the
control by voice functionality
needs to be well developed
which it is not yet.”
Yes, disable functionalities
while driving…
[35%] Some…
[15%]
No!
[50%]
Infotainment while driving | Call for restrictions? Half of the expert panel thinks there should be no restrictions regarding the functionalities while driving,
while the other half welcomes restrictions for at least difficult or complex features.
“Should functionalities be disabled when the vehicle is moving?”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 21
“Not myself, but the younger
generation will do!”
“[…] while in a jam, I could use it.
And I understand very well other
people, who would.”
“Only when the vehicle is stopped.”
“Not at all. This is a point of
great concern.”
“Definitely NOT.”
Yes, important for some
people… but should not be
distracting…
[31%]
No!
[69%]
Social Media access while driving Most experts do not wish to be socially connected while driving themselves – but they see it as a
feature of crucial importance for the younger generation.
“Do you wish to have access to social media while driving?”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 22
Smart-Phone Connectivity
(Integration of mobile devices)
Phone Functionality
E-Mail Functionality
Communication Apps
(e.g. Whats App,
Facebook Messenger)
2,55
2,45
0,94
0,35
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Communication Features Somewhat critical attitude towards functionalities beyond smartphone integration and phone
functionality, with mixed acceptance of e-mails and chat functionalities.
“How important and desirable are the following communication features from your point of view?”
not important at all very important mixed
2013 Expert Panel
Global Automotive Trends 2013 23
Navigation
(with online traffic informations)
Sat Nav-Safety interaction
(predictive route data)
Position-related
Information Systems
Navigation use for Range and
Efficiency Optimisation
2,59
2,00
1,75
1,65
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Navigation / Telematics Features Wide-spread and very positive reception towards technologies that improve or enhance navigation and
telematics systems.
“How important and desirable are the following navigation / telematics features from your point of view?”
not important at all very important mixed
2013 Expert Panel
Global Automotive Trends 2013 24
Displays / Instruments
Head-Up Display
Touchpad / Touchwheel
Voice Control
Gesture Recognition
2,37
1,80
1,51
0,96
0,17
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Human / Machine Interface While reserved attitudes towards ‘Gesture Recognition’ may have been predicted, it is probably
surprising that some automotive journalists still have doubts surrounding ‘Voice Control’.
“How important and desirable are the following human / machine interface features from your point of view?”
not important at all very important mixed
2013 Expert Panel
Global Automotive Trends 2013 25
“Hand input. Stick to haptic joysticks and
carefully thought-out button hierarchies.”
“Hand. I have not found a voice
system that works properly.”
“Voice. Always better in theory but no
automaker has perfected it yet.” “Voice input, when efficiently executed.”
By Hand
[46%]
By Hand, because by voice
is not reliable enough
[34%]
By Voice,
if it worked
[9%]
By Voice
[11%]
Voice or hand input Strong concerns regarding voice input from the leading automotive journalists, with only 11% currently
preferring input by voice. A further 9% stated that they would prefer voice input if it worked correctly.
“Do you prefer voice input or input by hand?”
Global Automotive Trends 2013 26
“Touch screen is faster and easier to use”
“Push-and-turn is better in a moving car.
Touch-screen works best on a display at a
consumer clinic or at an auto show display, not
in a moving vehicle.”
“Best is a mixture of both.”
“Touch-screens are dangerous because the only
way to confirm interaction is by sight.”
“Touch-screens are temperamental and take too
much attention away from the road.”
“The touch-screen is great when it works but
annoying when you have to press a number of
times before it activates.”
“Touch-screens are great if done right (Tesla),
horrible if done wrong (early Ford).”
“Touch-screens are too distant, and getting
smudged with fingerprints.”
Push & Turn button
[45%]
A combination of both
[15%]
Touch-screen display
[40%]
Touch-screen display vs. push-and-turn button Despite a near draw, push and turn buttons are generally preferred, either due to safety reasons or
due to the lack of refinement provided by most touch-screen displays.
“Do you prefer a touch-screen display or a push-and-turn button?”
Contact
Dr. Rainer Mathes
PRIME Research
President
Bernd Hitzemann
PRIME Research
Project Manager
Jens Meiners
World Car Awards
Director Steering Committee World Car Awards
PRIME Ann Arbor (USA)
PRIME New York (USA)
PRIME Montevideo (Uruguay)
PRIME São Paulo (Brazil)
PRIME Shanghai (China)
PRIME Delhi-Gurgaon (India)
PRIME Oxford (UK)
PRIME Mainz (Germany)
PRIME Zurich (Switzerland)