The Dogmas of the Quiet Past Are

8/14/2019 The Dogmas of the Quiet Past Are

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Copyright 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.Methods and approaches are patent pending

The dogmas of the quiet past areinadequate to the stormy present. Theoccasion is piled high with difficulty, and wemust rise with the occasion. As our case isnew, so we must think and act anew

Abraham Lincoln

Quoted by Lazaroff & Snowden Anticipatory Models for Counter Terrorism inPopp, R & Yen, J Emergent Information Technologies and Enabling Policies for Counter-Terrorism Wiley-IEEE Press 2006

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Copyright 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.

Life cycles

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SCIENTIFIC

MANAGEMENT

Taylor, Drucker

SENSE-MAKING

Mass production,automation &

commoditisation

Mass customisation, scalable& reliable technology &

communication

Mass collaboration, pervasivesocial computing and

globalisation

Time

Utilityoftheparadigm

SYSTEMS THINKING

Hammer, Senge,

Kaplan, Nonaka

Control of function

Control of information

Ability to situatea network

Simple

Complicated

Complex


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Theory informed practice

Key language

A system is any network that has coherenceit may be fuzzy, it may or may not have purpose

An agent is anything which acts within the systemindividual, group, idea etc.

Three types of system

Ordered: system constrains agents, reductionism & rules,deterministic, observer independence

Chaotic: agents unconstrained & independent of eachother ,studied through statistics & probability

Complex: system lightly constrains agents, agents modify systemby their interaction with it and each other, they co-evolve(irreversibility).

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The landscape of management

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Computational

Complexitya simulation

Naturalising

sense-makingan ecology

SystemsDynamics

an organism

ComplexOutput

SimpleOutput

Complex InputSimple Input

Processengineeringa machine


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Simple

SenseCategorise

Respond

Best practice

The Cynefin framework

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ComplicatedSense

AnalyseRespond

Good practice

ComplexProbeSense

Respond

Emergent

Chaotic

ActSense

Respond

Novel


Aspects of complexity

Characteristics

Highly sensitive to small changes

Proximity & connectivity of agents has high impact

Meaning emerges through interaction

Hindsightdoes not lead to foresightShift from fail-safe design tosafe-failexperimentation

Consequences

Use of distributed cognitionwisdom but not foolishness of crowds

Work with finely granulated objectsinformation and organisational

Disintermediation

Putting decision makers in direct contact with raw data

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Distributed cognition

Farmers guessing weight of a cow at a fair ...

... the average of the group is more accurateNo one must be aware of the guesses of others

Agents must be experts (ideally tacit knowledge)

Mass consultation of citizens & interest groups

A simple test to prove the point

Three students with white shirts & three with black playingbasket ball

Count the number of times those with white shirts pass the ballThere are two balls!

To avoid argument: if it leaves the hands of someone in whiteand arrives in someone else's, no matter how, it is one pass

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Methods and approaches are patent pending

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it seems that whatever we perceive is organised intopatterns for which we the perceivers are largelyresponsible...

As perceivers we select from all the stimuli falling on oursenses only those which interest us, and our interests aregoverned by a pattern-making tendency, sometimescalled a schema. In a chaos of shifting impressions eachof us constructs a stable world in which objects haverecognisable shapes, are located in depth and havepermanence.As times goes on and experience builds up, we makegreater investment in our systems of labels. So a

conservative bias is built it. It gives us confidenceMary Douglas Purity and Danger 1966


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Pervasive effects

Contrast

a weight is lighter if the heavieris lifted first

Sunk costreluctance to absorb a loss

Out-group homogeneityThey are uniform, we are lessso

Actor/Observer

we act in context, they do itdeliberately

Self confirmation

ignoring anything that disturbsare pre-judgement

Rationalisationsearch only for data thatsupports our pre-judgements

Conformityaltering judgement to conformwith the dominant

Over confidenceinflate estimates of own ability& judgement

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Source: Thiele The Heart of Judgement Cambridge 2006



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Reasoning

Deduction

Something is a consequence of something else

based on the truth of the original assumptions

Inductioninferring a particular quality from multiple

instances or cases

Abduction

one considers a series of apparently unrelated

events on the suspicion they may be connected

Pre-hypothesis

hypothesis generation leading to other methods

Objectivity based on numbers & distributed cognition


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Fragments signified

Fragmented micro-

narratives: transcribed,audio, video, URL referenceetc. etc.

Self-signified at the point oforigin and/or in secondaryanalysis

Signification uses a rangeof geometric shapes plus

more conventional tags

Multi-source analysis canalso be stored as fragmentsfor serendipitous discovery

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Copyright 2007 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. 12


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Generation open source

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Fragments, signified

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Staff patronisechildren

staff are too childlike and pathetic

too much to seeand its

overwhelming

not enough to keepme interested

rushed fromplace to placemissed things

too much timein one place

Altruistic

Assertive Analytical


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Impact measures & monitors

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Staff are too childlike & pathetic

Staff patronisechildren

Too much to seeand its

overwhelming

Not enough tokeep me interested

Rushed from place

to place missedthings

Too much time inone place

The museum stinksI was embarrassed to be thereWe never got to do anythingWhy cant I have a go?We were treated like morons

When were in the insect house Iwanted to use the models. MrSmith kept telling us about them

but didnt let us touch them untilthe end and there wasnt any time.He can play with them anytime andI missed my chance because ofhim, its not fair.



Fitness landscapes

A visual representation showing theperformance of all possible examples,cases or situations in phase space

Each trough represents a stable state

each peak represents an instabilitywhere the dynamic landscape canpotentially reconfigure dramatically thenext instant

Identifying and tweaking controlparameters can create instabilities thatshow where the tipping points are

Large fluctuations are a clue that aphase change is approaching

Allows nuanced behaviour to beappreciated & probed

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Disintermediation

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After action assessment

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Web based capture forformal analysis usingmultiple signifier sets

Ad hoc tools for analysts totag all and any materialwhenever they find it

Specific projects (includingcommissioned studies);micro-narrative databasesas well as reports.

Expert networks for

foresight (MIT/LSE project)


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On the fly indexing

Tagging as you go

fast and furious plusconsidered

Use of iTouch devices

Blue tooth pens on printed

forms/pads

Restricted high abstraction

data sets

Look to five fingered pad

training for key staff

(Stenograph type)

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Methods and approaches are patent pending22


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Comparison, alert & classifier

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Range of tools to allow

metadata patterns to beanalysed, fragmentssupport/explain/convince

Any pattern can becreated as an alert,allowing wide sensornetworks to be used

Training data sets create

classifiers that auto-signify

Ability to compareperspectives



The greatest loss of time is delay andexpectation, which depend upon thefuture. We let go the present, which we

have in our power, and look forwardto that which depends upon chance,and so relinquish a certainty for anuncertainty

Seneca24

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The Dogmas of the Quiet Past Are

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