The Draw of the Coast

Professor Andrew BeerCentre for Housing, Urban and Regional

PlanningUniversity of Adelaide

Introduction

• Are we drawn to the coast?• What are the demand factors?• What are the supply factors?• Where to next?

The Draw of the Coast

• The National Seachange Taskforce estimates that – 86% of Australians live under 50km from the coast– Growth in coastal areas consistently higher than

the national average• Especially WA, Queensland and NSW

– Australia’s population in 2010 - 22 m• Capital cities 14 m• Non-metro Australia 8 m• Non-metro – coast 6.9 m

The Draw of the Coast

The Draw of the Coast

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Cairns/Cairns Northern Beaches

Mount IsaMackay

Townsville-Thuringowa

Rockhampton

BundabergHervey Bay

Gladstone

MaryboroughGympie

Nambour

WarwickBallina

LismoreGrafton Coffs Harbour

SawtellArmidaleTamworth

Port Macquarie

Forster-TuncurryDubboMuswellbrook

Raymond Terrace

Maitland

Kurri Kurri-Weston

Broken Hill

KiamaNowra-Bomaderry

GoulburnGriffith

Wagga Wagga

Singleton

LauncestonBurnie-Somerset

Mount Gambier

Murray Bridge

Devonport

Horsham

Warrnambool

ColacBallarat

BairnsdaleSale

Traralgon

Moe-Yallourn

Ocean Grove-Barwon Heads

Bacchus MarshBendigo

Shepparton-Mooroopna

Wangaratta

Albury-Wodonga (Albury Part)

Echuca-Moama (Echuca Part)

Mildura

Port Pirie

Port AugustaWhyalla

Port Lincoln

Kalgoorlie-Boulder

Albany

BusseltonBunbury

Mandurah

Geraldton

KarrathaPort Hedland

Broome

Alice Springs

Toowoomba

Maitland

Cessnock-Bellbird

Orange

BathurstLithgow

Albury-Wodonga (Wodonga Part)

Morwell

Regional Cities in Australia

0 1,000 Kilometres

0 500 Miles

Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• Demographic processes – Increased life expectancy

• Increased period post retirement

– Mobile population with limited commitment to one place or community

• Increased willingness to migrate in older age – Lesser reliance on family in old age

– The Baby Boom Generation • Generation X

Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

Generation Label

Years of Birth Age Persons %

The Depression Generation Before 1931 75 plus 1,270,944 6.4 The Austerity Generation 1931-1948 55 to 74 2,827,764 14.2 The Baby Boomers 1949-1965 54 to 41 4,689,601 23.6 Generation X 1966- 1981 40 to 25 4,425,493 22.3 Generation Y 1981-1996 24 to 39 4,072,212 20.5 Generation I 1996 - 0 to 10 2,569,266 12.9 Total 19,855,280 100

Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• Increased wealth in older age – A generation and generations of home owners

• House prices outstripping inflation since 1970 • Concentration of immigrant arrivals in the major

capitals

– A more productive labour force with greater savings in older age

• In some instances, access to redundancy payments

Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• The working aged– Salt notes that while coastal growth started with

older generations, now taken up by those of economically active age• Impact of restructure of the economy from goods to

services – Partly servicing growth initiated by older population

• Fly In/Fly Out, Drive In/Drive Out • Refugees from high capital city house prices • Perceived life style advantages

Demand Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• Impact of second home ownership – Evidence that second home ownership

predisposes households to a longer term move • 30% of 55-64 year olds own a second property

Supply Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• Improvements in infrastructure provision – Especially transport

• Road infrastructure (eg Pacific Highway; Southern Expressway)

• Rail infrastructure (eg rail from Brisbane to Robina)• Air services – Coffs Harbour, Port Macquarie, Hervey Bay

– Telecommunications enhancements• Some rise in telecommuting

– The Barefoot Executives

• Potential impact of the NBN

Supply Factors Behind the Draw of the Coast

• Land, housing and construction costs– More affordable than capital cities

• More permissive planning regimes in some jurisdictions, especially on the east coast

• Creation of a viable housing market reduces some of the risk of movement

– Lifestyle migration • On-going impact of the ‘population turnaround’ of the

1970s

Where to Next?

• A trend unlikely to end in the foreseeable future – Baby Boom, Gen X, Gen Y

• Older persons cycling through coastal locations– May change with the Productivity Commission’s

reforms • Increased pressure for social infrastructure

– Which in turn will fuel growth • Increased attractiveness with climate change

Where to Next?

• Restricted land supply for further housing and development in some locations – Eg Coffs Harbour, Ballina – Spillover from coastal to near coastal locations

• Eg Lismore

• A positive thing – Greater choice within the Australian urban system – More affordable housing