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The dynamics of Britain’s ethnic group populations: the roles of natural change
and net migration in producing the ethnic mosaic
Nissa Finney and Ludi SimpsonBSPS Annual Conference
St. Andrews, 11-13th September 2007www.ccsr.ac.uk
www.ccsr.ac.uk/research/mrpd
Political and academic context
• Social and political concern• Assumptions about ‘white flight’ and non-white
‘self-segregation’• Renewed academic interest in ethnic
geographies and their measurement (e.g. Peach 1996, Simpson 2005, 2007, Voas and Williamson 2000, Poulsen et al 2005)
• Some work on migration and dispersal (e.g. Ellis & Goodwin-White 2006, Frey 2006, Musterd & de Vos 2007, Stillwell 2005, Simpson 2007)
Migration, Race and Population Dynamics
• Net migration and natural change• District and Ward scales• 8 ethnic groups, age and sex• Change over time (1991-2001)
Population change = (births – deaths) + (arrivals – departures)
National population dynamicsGrowth of Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other populations in GB is more through natural growth
than immigration, 1991-2001
net migration
natural change
Source: MRPD estimates
Age structure of net migration, GB, 91-01
100806040200
Age in 2001 (0,1,2...89,90+)
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
-50.00
Su
m N
etM
igra
tio
np
c
OtherChineseBangladeshiPakistaniIndianAfricanCaribbeanWhite
Ethnic group - 8 categories
Net migration as % of 1991 pop
Chinese and African immigration
Caribbean emigration
Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi emigration
Net migration rate for types of district for white and non-white groups, 2000-2001, GB
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
District type
Net
mig
rait
on
rat
e
White
Non-white
Counterurbanisation
Source: Census 2001 SMS, for districts in GB
Dispersal
Balance of migration,% of population
Group concentrations Group White
Indian -0.40 -1.23
Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other South Asian -0.34 -0.79
Chinese -0.21 -1.23
Black -1.65 0.13
Source: Census 2001, for districts in GB
White & Indian net migration, 91-01
Net migration V natural change, White and Bangladeshi
Migration and natural change: demographic hypotheses
Growth in geographical clusters• Pioneer and chain immigration: settlement areas• Few deaths compared to births: natural growth becomes
greater than immigrationDispersal• Lack of housing creates pressure to disperse from
settlement areas• Migration gives spatial form to social stratification,
economically more successful move further to achieve better housing
• Internal migration maintains clusters of ethnically similar population
Correlations between net migration and natural change
White -0.10
Caribbean -0.45
Indian -0.02
African 0.89
Pakistani 0.83
Bangladeshi 0.88
Chinese 0.68
Other 0.57
Districts of GB, 1991-2001
Local examples
Oldham
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
White
Caribbe
an
Africa
n
India
n
Pakist
ani
Bangla
desh
i
Chinese
Other
Bradford
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
White
Carib
bean
Africa
n
India
n
Pakista
ni
Banglad
eshi
Chines
eOth
er
• Natural growth and dispersal for Indian, Bangladeshi, Chinese
• Population loss due to migration for White and Caribbean
• Growth due to natural change and migration for Pakistani, African and Other
Net Migration Natural Change
…and in Oldham for Bangladeshi
Oldham
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
White
Caribbe
an
Africa
n
India
n
Pakist
ani
Bangla
desh
i
Chinese
Other …and in Oldham for
Bangladeshi
Oldham
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
White
Caribbe
an
Africa
n
India
n
Pakist
ani
Bangla
desh
i
Chinese
Other …and in Oldham for
Bangladeshi
• Natural growth and dispersal for all non-White groups except Pakistani
Swansea
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
White
Caribbe
an
Africa
n
India
n
Pakist
ani
Bangla
desh
i
Chinese
Other
Fife
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Whi
te
Carib
bean
Africa
n
India
n
Pakist
ani
Bangl
ades
hi
Chines
eOth
er
Net Migration Natural Change
• Population growth due to migration and natural change for all non-White groups except Bangladeshi
Summary
• Components of changes estimate are a rich source• Nationally, natural growth has a greater impact than
migration for Caribbean, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Other groups
• There is great variation not only between groups but between areas
• Patterns can be explained by the demographic maturity of migrant groups and their geographical distribution
• Local examples illustrate complexities of processes of population change but provide initial evidence for processes of natural growth and dispersal from urban and settlement areas, and the creation of new clusters in more remote areas
Conclusions
Geographies of ethnicity in Britain, including clustering of non-white groups,
can be explained through a combination of natural change and dispersal
We must not jump to conclusions about divisive motivations for migration