+ All Categories
Home > Documents > The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

Date post: 11-Apr-2022
Category:
Upload: others
View: 3 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
30
Portland State University Portland State University PDXScholar PDXScholar TREC Final Reports Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC) 5-2019 The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Emissions Michael McQueen Portland State University John MacArthur Portland State University, [email protected] Christopher Cherry University of Tennessee, Knoxville Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/trec_reports Part of the Transportation Commons, Urban Studies Commons, and the Urban Studies and Planning Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits you. Recommended Citation Recommended Citation McQueen, M., MacArthur, J., and Cherry, C. The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Portland, OR: Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC), 2019. https://doi.org/10.15760/trec.242 This Report is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in TREC Final Reports by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected].
Transcript
Page 1: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

Portland State University Portland State University

PDXScholar PDXScholar

TREC Final Reports Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC)

5-2019

The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes

on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas

Emissions Emissions

Michael McQueen Portland State University

John MacArthur Portland State University, [email protected]

Christopher Cherry University of Tennessee, Knoxville

Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/trec_reports

Part of the Transportation Commons, Urban Studies Commons, and the Urban Studies and Planning

Commons

Let us know how access to this document benefits you.

Recommended Citation Recommended Citation McQueen, M., MacArthur, J., and Cherry, C. The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on Person Miles Travelled and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Portland, OR: Transportation Research and Education Center (TREC), 2019. https://doi.org/10.15760/trec.242

This Report is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in TREC Final Reports by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected].

Page 2: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������� �������������� ������������������������� ����� ������������������ ����� ����������������� �������������������� !"#

$%&'()*�$&+,))-./'-�$(&012',13'1%42/5')1�3')1167�8'9�:;<=>:�;�?><�:�=�;:@A�;<B��BC@;�?><�@�<��:��������������������D��ED���

Page 3: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������� �������������� ������������������������ ����� ������������������ ������ ����������������� ���� ��� !"#�$�$#%�&�'�()*+�����,-./012�,.34115�67/5�,0.89:/49�;<=>?@A<B=BCA>�DE?E=<FG�=>H�IHJF=BCA>�KE>BE<�LA<BM=>H�NB=BE�O>CPE<?CBQ��R/9-S:7T/19�R/199UV�W/X�O>CPE<?CBQ�AY�;E>>E??EEZ�[>A\PCMME��� �

Page 4: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$%&'()'*'#+,�-./0�12345/26�720�85/125/69�:;<=4=�7/3.�2�>52<3�:5?1�3.4�@/A9A64�B5?=;A3�C;886/450�D00?A/23/?<�E@BCDF�2<=�B4?864G?5@/H40I�2<=�/0�J204=�;8?<�7?5H�0;88?534=�J9�3.4�K23/?<26�CA/4<A4�G?;<=23/?<�;<=45�L52<3�K?M�NOPQQRSM�D<9�?8/</?<0I�:/<=/<>0I�2<=�A?<A6;0/?<0�?5�54A?114<=23/?<0�4T854004=�/<�3./0�12345/26�254�3.?04�?:�3.4�2;3.?5E0F�2<=�=?�<?3�<4A40025/69�54:64A3�3.4�U/470�?:�3.4�K23/?<26�CA/4<A4�G?;<=23/?<M�-./0�82845�720�8548254=�J9�3.4�-52<08?5323/?<�V40425A.�2<=�W=;A23/?<�X4<345�E-VWXF�23�B?5362<=�C3234�Y</U450/39I�2<=�642=�J9�540425A.�3421�141J450�J4./<=�3.4�ZW[WV�\</3/23/U4M���������] _ a�abcd��-.4�-52<08?5323/?<�V40425A.�2<=�W=;A23/?<�X4<345�E-VWXF�23�B?5362<=�C3234�Y</U450/39�EBCYF�/0�:/503�2<=�:?541?03�2<�/<345=/0A/86/<259�A4<345M�e;5�540425A.�/</3/23/U40�A?1J/<4�3.4�U?/A40�2<=�4T8453/04�?:�2�7/=4�52<>4�?:�J2AH>5?;<=0�3.23�A?664A3/U469�0.284�3.4�7290�74�1?U4�3.5?;>.�3.4�7?56=M�f4�0;88?53�A?662J?523/U4�540425A.�2<=�4=;A23/?<�3.23�85?U/=4�2�;</g;4�64<0�?<�352<08?5323/?<�/<0/>.3�:?5�U/J52<3�A?11;</3/40M�-VWX�/0�.?14�3?�3.4�YMCM�he-�:;<=4=�K23/?<26�\<03/3;34�:?5�-52<08?5323/?<�2<=�X?11;</3/40�EK\-XF�A?<0?53/;1I�3.4�\</3/23/U4�:?5�@/A9A64�2<=�B4=4035/2<�\<<?U23/?<�E\@B\FI�2<=�?3.45�352<08?5323/?<�>52<30�2<=�85?>5210M�f4�85?=;A4�/182A3:;6�540425A.�:?5�352<08?5323/?<�=4A/0/?<�12H450I�2<=�0;88?53�3.4�4=;A23/?<�?:�:;3;54�352<08?5323/?<�85?:400/?<260�3.5?;>.�A;55/A;6;1�=4U46?814<3�2<=�03;=4<3�8253/A/823/?<�/<�540425A.M�ijklmnopmkoq�

�] _ a�rcscb��-.4�Z/>.3�W64A35/A�[4./A64�W=;A23/?<�2<=�V40425A.�EZW[WVF�\</3/23/U4�/0�2�A?<0?53/;1�?:�Z/>.3�W64A35/A�[4./A64�EZW[F�540425A.450�2<=�4=;A23?50�3.23�A;554<369�/<A6;=40�:2A;639�2<=�032::�:5?1�Y</U450/39�?:�-4<<40044I�B?5362<=�C3234�Y</U450/39I�2<=�t?<20.�Y</U450/39M�ZW[WV�032534=�/<�uPNv�3?�J5/<>�3?>43.45�0?14�?:�3.4�642=/<>�540425A.450�/<�3.4�:/46=�3?�A?664A3/U469�2<0745�0?14�?:�3.4�J/>>403�g;403/?<0�546234=�3?�3.404�4145>/<>�U4./A640M���-.4�1/00/?<�?:�3.4�ZW[WV�/0�3?�J5/<>�2�A?664A3/U4�:?A;0�3.5?;>.�/<345=/0A/86/<259�540425A.�=/54A34=�23�ZW[�2=?83/?<I�090341�/<34>523/?<I�0?A/4326�/182A30I�2<=�546234=�8?6/A9M�Y-wx0�ZW[WV�A4<345�7/66�/</3/234�3.4�:?5123/?<�2<�/<345<23/?<26�A??84523/U4�540425A.�A4<345�?<�ZW[0I�J5/=>/<>�2A2=41/2I�/<=;0359I�>?U45<14<3I�2<=�<?<y>?U45<14<3�?5>2</z23/?<0M�{{{m|k}jk~k�jl�ml���

Page 5: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$%&'" $!�()*+�,-.-/0�1)2/�34)50�647�7/89,-*3�)9.4:4.-2/�;(<�-*�478/7�.4�7/89,/�.)-5=-=/�/:-00-4*0�)*8�.4�7/89,/�,4*3/0.-4*>�?4*2/*.-4*)5�,+,5-*3�-0�)�3448�0459.-4*@�.14931�-.0�9=.)A/�1)0�054B/8�-*�7/,/*.�+/)70�-*�0/2/7)5�,-.-/0@�8/0=-./�.1/�-:=5/:/*.).-4*�46�37//*B)+0@�C-A/01)7/@�)*8�C-A/�5-*/0�DE*8/704*�)*8�(,F/48�GHIJK>�L5/,.7-,�C-,+,5/0�D/MC-A/0K�,4958�C/�)*�/66/,.-2/�*/B�=)7.�46�.1/�0459.-4*�.4�,4:C).�:48/�01-6.�0.)3*).-4*>��<1/�/MC-A/�-0�)�7/,/*.5+�-*.7489,/8�:48/�46�.7)2/5�.1).�-0�7)=-85+�3)-*-*3�-*�=4=95)7-.+�.17493149.�.1/�N*-./8�O.)./0>�<1/�/MC-A/�,)*�466/7�)�,1/)=/7�)5./7*).-2/�.4�,)7�.7)2/5�DP4=42-,1�/.�)5>�GHIQK�)*8�,)*�=742-8/�90/70�B-.1�)*�)8/R9)./�5/2/5�46�=1+0-,)5�),.-2-.+�-*./*0-.+�*/,/00)7+�.4�/*1)*,/�1/)5.1�DS-01:)*�)*8�?1/77+�GHITK>�U-8-*3�)*�/MC-A/�-0�7/B)78-*3�)*8�69*@�-0�67//-*3�647�90/70�B-.1�5-:-./8�)C-5-.+�)*8�:4C-5-.+@�)*8�,)*�/2/*�5/)8�.4�)�,)7M67//�1490/1458�DP4=42-,1�/.�)5>�GHIQV�(),E7.197�/.�)5>�GHIJ@�GHIWV�X4*/0@�Y)7:0@�)*8�Y/-*/*�GHITK>�Z.�,)*�C/�)�90/695�.445�.4�7/89,/�?[G�/:-00-4*0@�97C)*�*4-0/�)*8�)-7�=4559.-4*@�)*8�-**/7�,-.+�.7)66-,�D\/-00�/.�)5>�GHI]K>�F)0.5+@�/MC-A/0�/*,497)3/�90/70�.4�,+,5/�6)7.1/7�)*8�:47/�46./*�.1)*�,4*2/*.-4*)5�C-,+,5/0�D(),E7.197�/.�)5>�GHIWK@�:/)*-*3�.1).�.1/+�466/7�.1/�4==47.9*-.+�.4�:95.-=5+�.1/�C/*/6-.0�)57/)8+�)2)-5)C5/�.174931�,4*2/*.-4*)5�,+,5-*3>�<1-0�B1-./�=)=/7�/=547/0�.1/�=4./*.-)5�/MC-A/�/66/,.�4*�=/704*�:-5/0�.7)2/5/8�DP(<K�)*8�37//*1490/�3)0�/:-00-4*0�D_Y_K�-*�./7:0�46�?[G�647�2)7+-*3�5/2/50�46�/MC-A/�:48/�01)7/�7/=5),/:/*.>�E�:48/5�647�P(<�01-6.�)*8�_Y_�7/89,.-4*�=4./*.-)5�-0�,7/)./8�647�P47.5)*8@�[7/34*>�P47.5)*8�B)0�0/5/,./8�647�)*)5+0-0�C/,)90/�46�.1/�)2)-5)C-5-.+�46�7/3-4*)5�.7)*0=47.).-4*�8).)@�.1/�/./*0-2/*/00�46�.1/�,-.+0�C-A/�*/.B47A�.1).�B4958�5/*8�-.0/56�.4�/MC-A/�9=.)A/@�)*8�.1/�)9.1470�6):-5-)7-.+�B-.1�.1/�,-.+>�� �

Page 6: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$%"&$#�$#'!#(�)*+,�-*+./�010/2�321-,�45�.*/�674817�9+:*�;*+<.�;=/512+4�024>/=.?�1+@/3�1.�1::2/:1.+5:�.215,042.1.+45�/@+,,+45�.2/53,�@43/7/3�=4A5.2BC8BC=4A5.2B�.*24A:*�DEFE?�+5=7A3+5:�84.*�8A,+5/,,C1,CA,A17�153�*+:*C@43/C,*+<.�,=/512+4,�GH/074:7/�153�IA7.45�DEJKLM�)*+,�+5+.+17�,.A3B�-1,�1A:@/5./3�.*/�<4774-+5:�B/12�.4�+5=7A3/�@42/�1::2/,,+N/�=45.2+8A.+45,�<24@�=B=7+5:�153�/C=B=7+5:�1,�A.+7+.12+15�@43/,�4<�.215,042.M�)*/�,.A3B�<4A53�.*1.�1�-4273�.*1.�1=*+/N/,�1�,=/512+4�4<�JKO�=4@8+5/3�8+=B=7/�153�/C8+P/�@43/�,*12/�8B�0/2,45�P+74@/./2,�.21N/7/3�=4A73�,//�1�JEO�2/3A=.+45�+5�.215,042.1.+45�/@+,,+45,�3A/�.4�.*/�+@@/5,/�/5/2:B�2/QA+2/3�0/2�0/2,45�P+74@/./2�<42�7+:*.C3A.B�01,,/5:/2�N/*+=7/,�=4@012/3�.4�/C8+P/,�153�8+=B=7/,�GR1,45?�IA7.45?�153�R=S45173�DEJFLM��)*/�+@01=.�4<�.215,042.1.+45�45�.*/�/5N+245@/5.�=15�17,4�8/�/T02/,,/3�1,�7+</=B=7/�=12845�/@+,,+45�21./,?�-*+=*�.1P/�+5.4�1==4A5.�.*/�/@+,,+45,�<24@�@15A<1=.A2+5:�153�3+,04,17�1,�-/77�1,�A,1:/M�U�2/042.�8B�.*/�VA240/15�WB=7+,.,X�I/3/21.+45�<4A53�.*1.�8+=B=7/,�153�/C8+P/,�*1N/�1�7+</=B=7/�/@+,,+45,�21./�4<�10024T+@1./7B�DJ�:21@,�153�DD�:21@,�4<�WYD/�0/2�0/2,45�P+74@/./2�2/,0/=.+N/7B?�-*+7/�0A87+=�.215,+.�8A,/,�/@+.�JEJ�:�7+</=B=7/�WYD/�153�=12,�/@+.�DZJ�:�7+</=B=7/�WYD/�0/2�0/2,45�P+74@/./2�G[7453/7?�R+,0/745?�153�I/2:A,45�DEJJLM��W7/127B?�15�+5=2/1,/3�,*12/�4<�8+=B=7/,�153�/C8+P/,�153�1�3/=2/1,/3�,*12/�4<�7+:*.C3A.B�01,,/5:/2�N/*+=7/,�45�.*/�2413�*1N/�.*/�04./5.+17�.4�:2/1.7B�2/3A=/�=12845�/@+,,+45,M��VN/5�-+.*�.*+,�04./5.+17?�34/,�.*1.�@/15�.*1.�0/407/�-+77�1=.A177B�A,/�/C8+P/,�.4�2/071=/�.2+0,�.1P/5�8B�@42/�=12845�/@+..+5:�@43/,\�U�,.A3B�+5�[2+:*.45?�]5+./3�+5:34@�<4A53�.*1.�1�.2+17�:24A0�4<�_E�012.+=+015.,�.*1.�-/2/�7415/3�/C8+P/,�2/3A=/3�.*/+2�5A@8/2�4<�@+7/,�32+N/5�8B�DEOM�],/2,�.21N/7/3�1�-//P7B�1N/21:/�4<�JFCDE�@+7/,�8B�/C8+P/?�-+.*�=4@@A.+5:�=4@+5:�4A.�1,�.*/�34@+515.�.2+0�0A204,/M�5�133+.+45?�KaO�4<�012.+=+015.,�2/042./3�.*1.�.*/B�.21N/77/3�7/,,�1,�1�=12�32+N/2�GW1+25,�/.�17M�DEJZLM�U54.*/2�,.A3B�+5�;-/3/5�<4A53�.*24A:*�1�,A2N/B�4<�/T+,.+5:�/C8+P/�4-5/2,�.*1.�/C8+P/,�,1N/3�A,/2,�15�1N/21:/�4<�FF�P@�0/2�-//P�<42�=12,�+5�A2815�12/1,�153�bD�P@�0/2�-//P�<42�=12,�+5�2A217�12/1,M�VC8+P/�.2+0,�-/2/�17,4�<4A53�.4�02/34@+515.7B�2/071=/�=12�.2+0,�=4@012/3�.4�4.*/2�@43/,�G9+,/7+A,�153�;N/5,,45�DEJZLM�U�,.A3B�4<�c42.*�U@/2+=15�/C8+P/�4-5/2,�<4A53�.*1.�bDO�4<�/C8+P/�.2+0,�2/071=/3�.2+0,�.*1.�4.*/2-+,/�-4A73�*1N/�8//5�.1P/5�8B�=12M�Y<�.*/,/�.2+0,�02/N+4A,7B�.1P/5�8B�=12?�KFM_O�-/2/�=4@@A./�.2+0,�.4�-42P�42�,=*447?�KKMZO�-/2/�4.*/2�A.+7+.12+15�.2+0,�G/5./2.1+5@/5.?�0/2,4517�/22153,?�N+,+.+5:�<2+/53,�153�<1@+7B?�42�4.*/2L?�153�dMKO�-/2/�2/=2/1.+45�42�/T/2=+,/�.2+0,M�)*/�1N/21:/�7/5:.*�4<�.2+0,�4.*/2-+,/�.1P/5�8B�=12�-1,�dMa�@+7/,�GR1=U2.*A2�/.�17M�DEJ_LM��

Page 7: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"�#$#%&'('�($�)!('�*#*"+�",*%-&'�"./(0"�1'#2"�3#)#�1$4-5"+"3�/&�)!"�6#47+)!1+�")�#%8�9:;<=>�'1+5"&�+"'1%)'�)-�?-+,�)!"�/#'('�?-+�,-3"%($2�"./(0"�+"*%#4","$)�-?�)+(*'�#$3�3(')#$4"'�-?�-)!"+�,-3"'�($�@-+)%#$38�A#'"%($"�)+#$'*-+)#)(-$�1'#2"�#$3�",(''(-$'�4-$3()(-$'�?-+�)!"�4()&�-?�@-+)%#$3�B"+"�-/)#($"3�?+-,�)!"�C+"2-$�6")+-�D"2(-$#%� +#$'*-+)#)(-$�@%#$�#**"$3(4"'E�C+"2-$�F-1'"!-%3�74)(5()&�G1+5"&E�H8G8�I$"+2&�J$?-+,#)(-$�73,($(')+#)(-$E�H8G8�I$5(+-$,"$)#%�@+-)"4)(-$�72"$4&�"K+(3�3#)#E�#$3�)!"�L"3"+#%� +#$'()�73,($(')+#)(-$8� �

Page 8: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$%�&'�()*+)�,(�-../0�,1+�2'3()4-,2('�(3�+5627+�)2*+)812.�,)+'*8�9/+-'+*�2'�:-;<),1=)�+,�-/>�?@ABCD�-'*�,(�;)+-,+�-�8242/-)�6=,�84-//+)�8;-/+�E+)82('�(3�,1+�@ABF�G291�H123,�I0;/2'9�H;+'-)2(�)+.(),�60�:-8('�+,�-/>�3()�J(),/-'*K�LMK�N+�'++*+*�-�,((/�,(�4(*+/�J:O�-'*�PGP�)+*=;,2('�.(,+',2-/�*=+�,(�+5627+�4(*+�81-)+�2';)+-8+>�O1+�-'-/0828�N-8�.+)3()4+*�=82'9�-�4(*232+*�E+)82('�(3�-�:2;)(8(3,�QR;+/�,((/�*+E+/(.+*�60�)+8+-);1+)8�-,�,1+�G-46=)9�S'2E+)82,0�(3�O+;1'(/(90�?OSGGD�&'8,2,=,+�3()�O)-'8.(),�J/-''2'9�-'*�T(928,2;8�2'�;('U=';,2('�N2,1�,1+�:(62/+�@A@A�J)(U+;,K�;(53='*+*�60�,1+�&',+//29+',�Q'+)90�Q=)(.+�J)(9)-44+�(3�,1+�Q=)(.+-'�S'2('>�O1+�9(-/�(3�,1+�:(62/+�@A@A�J)(U+;,�N-8�,(�*+E+/(.�-�./-'�,(�6=2/*�-'*�4-2',-2'�-�8,)('9�;0;/2'9�;=/,=)+�2'�I+',)-/�-'*�Q-8,+)'�Q=)(.+�?M=*(/.1�@ABV-D>�O1+�.)(9)-4�)-'�6+,N++'�:-0�@ABB�-'*�<.)2/�@ABVK�1(N+E+)K�.)(9)-4�2'3()4-,2('K�)+.(),8K�-'*�,((/8�-)+�8,2//�-E-2/-6/+�('/2'+�?M=*(/.1�@ABV6D>�O1+�4(*+/�;-/;=/-,+8�J:O�-'*�;-)6('�3((,.)2',�24.-;,8�)+8=/,2'9�3)(4�62;0;/+�4(*+�81-)+�E-)2-,2('8>�W+�-=94+',+*�,1+�,((/�,(�-;;(44(*-,+�Q'9/281�='2,8K�;-/;=/-,+�-E+)-9+�;-)6('�3((,.)2',�.+)�.+)8('�42/+�3()�.=6/2;�,)-'82,K�;-/;=/-,+�,(,-/�+5627+�+42882('8K�-'*�-;;(=',�3()�)+*=;,2('8�2'�,)2.8�-'*�*28,-';+�,)-E+/+*�(3�(,1+)�4(*+8�92E+'�-�8.+;232+*�2';)+-8+�2'�+5627+�4(*+�81-)+�60�,)2.8>�O-6/+�B�28�,1+�)+8=/,2'9�2'.=,�.-9+�(3�,1+�-=94+',+*�4(*+/>�O1+�4(*+/�)+*=;+8�'=46+)�(3�,)2.8�-'*�*28,-';+�,)-E+/+*�60�4(*+8�(,1+)�,1-'�+5627+8�.)(.(),2('-/�,(�,1+�)-,2(8�(3�=,2/2,-)2-'�,)2.8�-'*�42/+8�)+./-;+*�60�+5627+8�3)(4�:-;<),1=)�+,�-/>�?@ABCD>�O)2.8�*+,+)42'+*�,(�6+�=,2/2,-)2-'�2';/=*+�,)2.8�4-*+�3()�;(44=,2'9K�)=''2'9�.+)8('-/�+))-'*8K�E282,2'9�3)2+'*8�-'*�3-42/0K�-'*�E282,2'9�+',+),-2'4+',�3-;2/2,2+8>�S,2/2,-)2-'�,)2.8�+R;/=*+�,)2.8�4-*+�3()�)+;)+-,2('�-'*�+R+);28+�.=).(8+8>�L3�-//�(3�,1+�+5627+�,)2.8�(68+)E+*�60�,1+�8=)E+0K�CAX�N+)+�=,2/2,-)2-'>�L3�-//�=,2/2,-)2-'�+5627+�,)2.8K�YZ>[X�N(=/*�1-E+�6++'�4-*+�60�;-)K�B@>CX�60�;('E+',2('-/�;0;/2'9K�B@>ZX�60�.=6/2;�,)-'82,K�-'*�Y>YX�60�N-/72'9>�L3�,1+�=,2/2,-)2-'�42/+8�,)-E+/+*�60�+5627+8�2'8,+-*�(3�60�(,1+)�4(*+8K�Z@>VX�N(=/*�1-E+�6++'�,)-E+/+*�60�;-)K�B@>@X�60�;('E+',2('-/�;0;/2'9K�B\>@X�60�.=6/2;�,)-'82,K�-'*�@>@X�60�N-/72'9K�-88=42'9�)(=,+�;1(2;+�28�1+/*�;('8,-',>�O128�*-,-�28�8,()+*�2'�,1+�]Q527+�:(*+�M+./-;+4+',�H./2,_�8+;,2('�2'�O-6/+�B>��+;-=8+�,1+�4(*+/�('/0�.)(E2*+8�)+8=/,8�3()�8.+;232;�+5627+�4(*+�81-)+�2';)+-8+8K�-�;(4.-'2('�;(*+�2'�M�N-8�*+E+/(.+*�,(�;)+-,+�E28=-/2a-,2('8�3()�-�;(',2'==4�(3�+5627+�4(*+�81-)+�2';)+-8+�E-/=+8>�O1+8+�,((/8�;-'�6+�=8+*�,(�+8,24-,+�J:O�8123,�-'*�PGP�)+*=;,2('8�3()�-'0�)+92('�-8�/('9�-8�-//�)+b=2)+*�2'.=,�*-,-�28�-E-2/-6/+>�O1+�2'.=,�*-,-�8(=);+8�-'*�,1+�;-/;=/-,2('8�.+)3()4+*�,(�32'*�.(,+',2-/�J:O�8123,�-'*�PGP�)+*=;,2('8�3()�J(),/-'*�3)(4�+5627+8�;-'�6+�3(='*�2'�,1+�<..+'*2R>�� �

Page 9: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$�%&�'()$#�*+,-.�/!.!�

�� �

Page 10: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$%"�&'()�)*+,(-.�/0*)*.,)�1(.2(.3)�10-4�,'*�4-2*5�-.�,'*�/-,*.,(65�-1�*78(9*)�,-�)'(1,�:;&�6.2�<=<�*4())(-.)>�?(0),@�,'*�-A,/A,�/63*�10-4�,'*�*B+*5�C*0)(-.�-1�,'*�4-2*5�()�*B/5-0*2>�D*B,@�0*)A5,)�60*�/0*)*.,*2�10-4�,'*�E�+-2*�1-0�&0(/)�6.2�:;&>�F6),@�(4/6+,�-.�<=<�*4())(-.)�()�2()+A))*2>���G.�&685*�H@�,'*�I(./A,J�)*+,(-.�1-0�,'*�4-2*5�/0-C(2*)�6�0*(,*06,(-.�-1�)-4*�C65A*)�10-4�,'*�(./A,�,68@�6)�K*55�6)�+65+A56,*2�C65A*)�10-4�,'*�(./A,�26,6�1-0�,06C*55*2�4(5*)�L,-,65M@�,0(/)�L,-,65M@�6.2�4-2*�)/5(,�8N�,06C*55*2�4(5*)�L;O&M>�&'*�IP11*+,)�-1�*78(9*�/0-4-,(-.J�)*+,(-.�()�K'*0*�,'*�A)*0�+6.�)/*+(1N�,'0**�)+*.60(-)�-1�(.+0*6)*2�*78(9*�4-2*�)'60*�8N�,0(/)�(.�/*0+*.,63*�/-(.,)>�Q.�(.+0*6)*�10-4�,'*�3(C*.�*78(9*�6C*063*�,0(/�5*.3,'�C65A*�+6.�65)-�8*�)/*+(1(*2�8N�/*0+*.,�(1�2*)(0*2@�'-K*C*0�,'()�1*6,A0*�'6)�.-,�8**.�A)*2�8N�,'()�6.65N)()>�&'*�)+*.60(-�R@�H@�6.2�S�)*+,(-.)�/0-C(2*�(.1-046,(-.�+-00*)/-.2(.3�,-�,'*�2*1(.*2�4-2*�)'60*�(.+0*6)*�)/*+(1(*2�68-C*>�&685*�S�/0-C(2*)�,'*�(.(,(65�TUH�*4())(-.)�/*0�26N�6.2�/*0�N*60@�6)�K*55�6)�,'*�0*)A5,(.3�*4())(-.)�1-0�*6+'�)+*.60(->�&'*�2(11*0*.+*�8*,K**.�,'*�8*1-0*�6.2�61,*0�+6)*)�()�65)-�3(C*.�1-0�+-.C*.(*.+*>��� �

Page 11: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ����������������������������������

!"#$�%&�'()$#�*$+,#-+��

�� �

Page 12: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$�%&�'()$#�*$+,#-+�.�/01++1(2+�345665786�9:;7<:�=:<�>?@A� BCDBD� E786�FGHI>?@�E786�FGHI@:?<�=:<�@:?<A� HCJKJCDLM�� NO$2!P1(�Q� NO$2!P1(�R� NO$2!P1(�%� �3S95T:�U7>:�VW?<:A� LXDY� ZDXDY� ZLXDY� �345665786�?;E:<�=:<�>?@A� [C[[\� [CKMM� [CZLJ� E�FGHI>?@�=:<�@:?<A� HCB\[CDD[� HC[HKCJLB� HCMZHCJDJ� E�FGHI@:?<�]:>_E578�7;�FGH�=:<�>?@A� \D[� MZK� JHZ� E�FGHI>?@�=:<�@:?<A� ZZHCDKJ� HHKCDJB� \\MCZK[� E�FGHI@:?<�:<_:8E�<:>_E578� \XBY� [XMY� ZZXKY� ��abcde�fgh�ija�kW:�47>:l�m?6�<8�;7<�6_:8?<576�<?8n58n�;<74�DY�E7�ZLY�:S95T:�47>:�6W?<:�9@�E<5=6X�F?<�47>:�6W?<:�9@�E<5=6�56�EW:�476E�><?4?E5_?ll@�?;;:_E:>�9@�58_<:?6:6�58�:S95T:�47>:�6W?<:X�kW56�56�?EE<59E:>�E7�EW:�;?_E�EW?E�U?_o<EW<�:E�?lX�pHDZBq�;78>�EW?E�[HXKY�7;�:S95T:�E5l5E?<5?8�45l:6�<:=l?_:>�=:<678�45l:6�EW?E�7EW:<m56:�m7l>�W?r:�9::8�E<?r:l:>�9@�_?<6X�V7C�;7<�:r:<@�ZDD�45l:6�E<?r:l:>�9@�?8�:S95T:�6:<C�[HXK�m7l>�W?r:�7EW:<m56:�9::8�><5r:8�58�?�_?<X�s77T58n�?E�=:<678�45l:6�E<?r:ll:>�=:<�>?@C�5E�56�?==?<:8E�EW?E�?8�58_<:?6:�58�:S95T:�E<5=6�_<:?E:6�?�696E?8E5?l�>:_<:?6:�58�_?<�=:<678�45l:6�E<?r:l:>X�tE�?478E6�E7�?==<7u54?E:l@�?�ZDY�>:_<:?6:�58�Uk�9@�_?<�;7<�?�ZLYS=758E�58_<:?6:�58�:S95T:�47>:�6W?<:X��v1w,P$�Q&�x$P+(2�01#$+�-P!y$#$)�zx' {�|$P�$."1}$�0()$�+~!P$�"��-P1|�|$PO$2-!w$�|(12-�12OP$!+$�

Page 13: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

� !"#$�%&�'$()*+�,-#$)�.(!/$#$0�1$(�$2"-3$�,*0$�)4!($�"5�.(-1�1$(6$+.!7$�1*-+.�-+6($!)$�8/!#9$):�'; �64!+7$�"5�,*0$�1$(�$2"-3$�.(-1�,*0$�)4!($�1$(6$+.!7$�1*-+.�-+6($!)$�$"-3$;<�'; =$"-3$�'; ="-3$�'; =6!(�'; =.(!+)-.�'; =>!#3-+7��?@� ABCDEFGH� IBGDEFGH� ABCIEFGI�DBCDEFGH� JBHJEFGH�A@� HBIDEFGH� KBILEFGH� ABCHEFGI�DBH?EFGH� JBJCEFGH�L@� CBKCEFGH� KBLCEFGH� ABCLEFGI�DB?LEFGH� JBJ?EFGH�J@� ?B?KEFGK� KBGLEFGH� ABC?EFGI�CBIHEFGH� JBLHEFGH�H@� ?BJHEFGK� HBKCEFGH� ABIDEFGI�CBLIEFGH� JBACEFGH�K@� ?BIJEFGK� HBLAEFGH� ABIIEFGI�IBDDEFGH� JBAAEFGH�I@� ABGLEFGK� JBDIEFGH� ABIHEFGI�IBK?EFGH� JB?HEFGH�C@� ABLAEFGK� JBKAEFGH� ABILEFGI�IBALEFGH� JBGDEFGH�D@� ABKGEFGK� JBAIEFGH� ABI?EFGI�KBCJEFGH� JBGLEFGH�?G@� ABCDEFGK� LBDAEFGH� ABKCEFGI�KBJKEFGH� LBDKEFGH�??@� LB?CEFGK� LBHKEFGH� ABKKEFGI�KBGCEFGH� LBDGEFGH�?A@� LBJIEFGK� LBA?EFGH� ABKJEFGI�HBIGEFGH� LBCLEFGH�?L@� LBIKEFGK� ABCKEFGH� ABKAEFGI�HBLAEFGH� LBIIEFGH�?J@� JBGHEFGK� ABH?EFGH� ABKGEFGI�JBDJEFGH� LBIGEFGH�?H@� JBLJEFGK� AB?HEFGH� ABHCEFGI�JBHKEFGH� LBKJEFGH��MNOPQR�STUVVUQRV�WXY�Z[\Y]�_�\YaY][bY\�c[�Ydb][eY�cXY�f_Y�[g�h[ec]_i\j�keYl[iB��m_Y\�[i�fneeYic�\_c_�_i\�YZoo[i�be[go]Y�[g�cXY�h[ec]_i\�ZYce[�eYlo[ij�[i�_aYe_lYj�f_e�YZoc�AIJ�l�pkA�bYe�bYe[i�Zo]Y�q_ff[nicoil�g[e�h[ec]_i\�_aYe_lY�f_eb[[]oil�e_cYrj�bns]of�ce_ioc�YZoc�?JG�l�pkA�bYe�bYe[i�Zo]Y�q_ff[nicoil�g[e�_]]�h[ec]_i\�ce_ioc�aYXof]Y�ctbYrj�YusovY�YZoc�JBD�l�pkA�bYe�bYe[i�Zo]Y�oi�cXY�w[ecX Yc�eYlo[i�qYY�xbbYi\od�W_s]Y�??rj�_i\�f[iaYico[i_]�softf]Y�_i\�_]voil�YZoc�G�l�pkA�bYe�bYe[i�Zo]YB�pneeYic�c[c_]�bYe[i�Zo]Y�ce_aY]Y\�o�ACjDJAjGLC�g[e�f_ej�?jGAIjLJA�g[e�bns]of�ce_iocj�IJLjCLI�g[e�f[iaYico[i_]�softf]Yj�_i\�JKGjHCG�g[e�_]voilB�WXYeY�o�i[�\_c_�c[�Yb_e_cY�[nc�YusovY�ge[Z�softf]Y�bYe[i�Zo]Y�golneYj�[�_i�oioco_]�a_]nY�[g�G�hyW�g[e�YusovY�o�_ nZY\�oifY�YusovY�_eY�fneeYic]t�oi�cXY�Y_e]t�_\[bcYe�bX_YB��ze[Z�_�{|{�bYebYfcoaYj�cXY�Z[\Y]�goi\�cX_c�_�?H@�b[oic�oifeY_Y�oi�YusovY�Z[\Y�X_eY�eYn]c�oi�_i�??@�\YfeY_Y�oi�pkA�YZoo[ij�ge[Z�CjGID�ZYceof�c[i�bYe�\_t�c[�Ij?HC�ZYceof�c[i�bYe�\_tB�W[c_]�YZoo[i�eYbeYYicY\�XYeY�_eY�cXY�nZ�[g�YZoo[i�ge[Z�f_ej�ce_iocj�

Page 14: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"�#$%&'#()�*+,#-#.�/ .�#0&((&+!(� //+1!2�3+.� �4 .5#�0 6+.&27�+3�2*&(�2+2 4�89:;:<�+3�#0&((&+!(�/ !�%#� 22.&%12#"�2+�/ .(� 2�2*#�=><�#$%&'#�0+"#�(* .#�/ (#?;��@ABCDEDFDEG�HBIJGCDC�K+.�2*#�0+"#4�,#�/*+(#�2+�1(#� !�#$%&'#� -#. 5#�2.&L�4#!52*�+3�M;N>�0&4#()�* 43�+3�2*#� -#. 5#�2.&L�4#!52*�3+1!"�&!�2*#�O /P.2*1.�#2� 4;�QR=:�(1.-#7�2+�L.+-&"#� �/+!(#.- 2&-#�#(2&0 2#;�S*&(�.#(142#"�&!�TUQ�( -&!5(�+3� %+12�9QR�2+!(�L#.�" 7�8 !�==<�"#/.# (#?;��V3�2*#�3144� -#. 5#�2.&L�4#!52*�+3�9;W�0&4#(�, (�1(#"�&!(2# ")�2*#.#�,+14"�%#� �TUQ�( -&!5(�+3�=):RR�2+!(�L#.�" 7�8 �QW<�"#/.# (#?;���U!� -#. 5#)� !�#$%&'#�,&44�.#"1/#� !�&!"&-&"1 4X(�#0&((&+!(�3.+0�2. !(L+.2 2&+!�%7�R;Q=�0#2.&/�2+!(�TUQ�L#.�7# .;�Y+,#-#.)�2*&(�#(2&0 2#�&(�3 &.47�/+!(#.- 2&-#�%#/ 1(#�&2�&(�% (#"�+!�Z+.24 !"� -#. 5#�.#5&+! 4�- 41#(�3+.�0+"#�(* .#�%7�2.&L(� !"� -#. 5#�2.&L�4#!52*�%7�0+"#;�P(�(##!�&!�2*#�[+.2*�P0#.&/ !�\1.-#7�%7�O /P.2*1.�#2� 4;�8QR=:?)�#$%&'#�1(#.(�.#L4 /#"�12&4&2 .& !� 12+0+%&4#�2.&L(�,&2*� �0# !�4#!52*�+3�];:R�0&4#(� !"� �(2 !" ."�"#-& 2&+!�+3�N;]9�0&4#()�,*#.# (�2*#�Z+.24 !"�0# !�2.&L�4#!52*�, (�+!47�>;M9�0&4#(;�S*&(�0# !(�2* 2�3+.�L#+L4#�,&2*� �(&0&4 .�2. !(L+.2 2&+!�0+"#�L.+3&4#�2+�2*#�(1.-#7�.#(L+!"#!2(�2* 2�2 '#�1L� !�#$%&'#)�0 .5&! 4�#0&((&+!�.#"1/2&+!(�L#.�L#.(+!�L#.�7# .�/+14"�. !5#�%#2,##!�;RN�0#2.&/�2+!(�TUQ� !"�;>>�0#2.&/�2+!(�TUQ�61(2�%7�- .7&!5�2* 2�L#.(+!X(� -#. 5#�/ .�2.&L�4#!52*�%#2,##!�2*#�/ .�2.&L�4#!52*�0# !�_$�2*#�(2 !" ."�"#-& 2&+!�3.+0�2*#�(1.-#7;�S*&(�&(�/ 4/14 2#"�,*&4#�*+4"&!5�2*#�L#./#!2 5#�+3�/ .�2.&L(�2* 2� .#�.#L4 /#"�%7�#$%&'#(�/+!(2 !2� 2�NQ;M<;��P42*+15*� !�#$%&'#�&(� �#.+$#0&((&+!�-#*&/4#)�&2(� %&4&27�2+�.#"1/#�/ .%+!�#0&((&+!(�&(�(2&44�"#L#!"#!2�+!�2*#�/ .%+!�/+(2�+3�#4#/2.&/&27�5#!#. 2#"�,&2*&!�2*#�+L#. 2&!5�.#5&+!;�S*&(�- 41#�. !5#(�3.+0�W;]]:�5�TUQ�_�#$%&'#�0&4#�,&2*&!�2*#�PaO\�(1%5.&")�/+!2 &!&!5�L .2(�+3�P4 (' )�2+�=Q;>N:�5�TUQ�_�#$%&'#�0&4#�,&2*&!�2*#�ObUc�(1%5.&")�/+!2 &!&!5�L .2(�+3�d&(/+!(&!� !"�O&/*&5 !�8(##�PLL#!"&e�S %4#�==?;�Z+.24 !"�3 44(�2+, ."(�2*#�/4# !#.�#!"�+3�2*#�(L#/2.10� 2�M;9R>�5�TUQ�_�0&4#�,&2*&!�2*#�[dZZ�(1%5.&";�Y+4"&!5� 44�+2*#.�- .& %4#(�/+!(2 !2)�(#22&!5�2*#�#$%&'#�#0&((&+!(�L#.�0&4#�. 2#�2+�2*#�,+.(2�- 41#�3+1!"�&!�2*#�f!&2#"�\2 2#(�8ObUc?�* (� �!#54&5&%4#�#33#/2�+!�2+2 4�#0&((&+!(;�S*&(�4# -#(�2*#�==<�"#/.# (#�&!�TUQ�3+.� �=><�#$%&'#�0+"#�(* .#�%7�2.&L(�1(#�/ (#�-&.21 447�1!/* !5#";�S*1()�#$%&'#�/* .5&!5�#0&((&+!�L.+3&4#(� .#�.#4 2&-#47�1! 33#/2#"�%7�"&33#.#!/#(�&!�L+,#.�5#!#. 2&+!�#0&((&+!�L.+3&4#(�,&2*&!�2*#�f!&2#"�\2 2#(;�� �

Page 15: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"!#$#!%&'�()*+�,-./0�.-/+�1-2�234/�*12-�355-612�2)32�2)/7/�,38�9/�0*,*2+�2-�,-./�+)37/�-7�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�7/.652*-1<�=2�.-/+�1-2�:7-.65/�318�3+8,:2-2*5�9/)3;*-7�3+�,-./�+)37/�-7�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�3::7-35)�>�?-7�318�,-./<�()*+�,/31+�2)32�2)/�,-./0�*+�61390/�2-�355-612�?-7�3�5/723*1�:/75/123@/�-?�6+/7+�-?�318�,-./�2)32�A*00�1-2�5)31@/�,-./+�61./7�318�5*756,+2315/+<�()*+�,31*?/+2+�61./7�5/723*1�*1*2*30�5-1.*2*-1+�A)/7/�2-230�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�?-7�3�,-./�5-12*16/+�./57/3+*1@�:3+2�B/7-<�C-7�/D3,:0/E�6+*1@�31�/F9*4/�3;/73@/�27*:�0/1@2)�-?�G<H�,*0/+E�)-0.*1@�300�-2)/7�*1:62+�5-1+2312E�5-1;/12*-130�9*5850/�,*0/+�273;/0/.�.7-:�9/0-A�B/7-�32�37-61.�I><JK�/F9*4/�,-./�+)37/<�(731+*2�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�.7-:�9/0-A�B/7-�98�IH<LK�/F9*4/�,-./�+)37/<�M-A/;/7E�A304*1@�,*0/+�273;/0/.�7/,3*1�:-+*2*;/�31.�362-,-9*0/�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�37/�+2*00�A/00�39-;/�B/7-�32�2)/�ILK�,374<�C*@67/�N�:7/+/12+�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�:/7�/F9*4/�,-./�+)37/�98�27*:�:/75/123@/�:-*12�*157/3+/�A*2)�/F9*4/�3;/73@/�27*:�0/1@2)�+/2�2-�G<H�,*0/+<��C672)/7�7/+/375)�*+�1//./.�2-�,-7/�3556732/08�./2/7,*1/�,-./�+)37/�.*+27*962*-1�5)31@/+�-15/�318�,-./O+�,*0/+�273;/0/.�,*1*,6,�*+�7/35)/.<�M-A/;/7E�2731+*2�31.�352*;/�2731+:-72�,34/�6:�+65)�3�+,300�:-72*-1�-?�2)/�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�2)32�5-12*16/.�./57/3+/�*1�362-,-9*0/�:/7+-1�,*0/+�273;/0/.�31.�5-77/+:-1.*1@�/,*++*-1+�+)-60.�+2*00�9/�A*2)*1�31�355/:2390/�-7./7�-?�,3@1*26./<�()*+�+:/5*?*5�53+/�)3+�9//1�6+/.�2-�*1?-7,�2)/�/,*++*-1+�+/1+*2*;*28�31308+*+�39-;/<��PQRSTU�VW�XUTYZ[�\Q]UY�T_U]Ua�bUT�UcdQeU�\ZaU�Yf_TU�dg�TQb�bUThU[_RU�bZQ[�Q[hTU_YU�iQf�UcdQeU�_UT_RU�TQb�]U[Rf�YU�Z�jkl�\Q]UY�

Page 16: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$%&�'()(#*#("!�(+�#$*#�,%$(-'%�)('%+�#&*,%'%.�/0123�(+�!"#�&%-*'-4'*#%.�5&")�6%&+"!�)('%+�#&*,%'%.7�2$%�%)(++("!+�-*'-4'*#("!+�*&%�+()6'(5(%.�$%&%�89�*++4)(!:�#$*#�-*&�*!.�#&*!+(#�"--46*!-9�&*#%+�&%)*(!�-"!+#*!#;�6&%+%&,(!:�:�<=>�6%&�6%&+"!�)('%�%)(++("!�&*#%+�*+�%?8(@%�)".%�+$*&%�(!-&%*+%+7�2$4+;�(5�*�#&*!+(#�*:%!-9�."%+�!"#�*.A4+#�&"4#%�+-$%.4'%+�*!.�!4)8%&�"5�,%$(-'%+�"!�*�#&*!+(#�'(!%�#"�*--"))".*#%�'"B%&�&(.%&+$(6;�"--46*!-9�&*#%+�B"4'.�.%-&%*+%�'%*.(!:�#"�*!�(!-&%*+%�(!�*,%&*:%�<=>��%)(++("!+�6%&�6%&+"!�)('%�5"&�#&*!+(#�&(.%&+7�C"B%,%&;�#&*!+(#�)*@%+�46�+4-$�*�+)*''�6%&-%!#�"5�6%&+"!�)('%+�#&*,%'%.�#$*#�#$%�%55%-#�"!�#"#*'�%)(++("!+�B"4'.�8%�)(!()*'7�D"&�(!+#*!-%;�(5�*,%&*:%�<=>�6%&�#&*!+(#�6%&+"!�)('%�."48'%.�.4%�#"�.%-&%*+%.�&(.%&+$(6�*!.�)(!()*'�&"4#%�*!.�5'%%#�*.A4+#)%!#+;�#"#*'�<=>�%)(++("!+�5"&�#$%�&%:("!�"!'9�(!-&%*+%�89�E7FG7��H%+%*&-$�)*9�8%�!%-%++*&9�#"�54&#$%&�(!5"&)�)".%'(!:�#$%�%55%-#+�"5�'"B%&�#&*!+(#�&(.%&+$(6�"!�%)(++("!+�6%&�#&*!+(#�6%&+"!�)('%7� �

Page 17: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������� ������� ���������� �������������������������

!" #$%&!"%'()*+,(-../012,3)1.)4./-546423)-31*789173-254)4./-546423)-31*78-29-:4)-,44;<1=43)1./42,3(9434)6124946.1)15-//0>*)?*)3(@64)15-85-)AB'-293*3-/3)-27.*)3-31*2461771*2712A*)3/-298CD5-2<471,21>15-23/0)49+549-74;<1=46*947(-)4125)4-747E'(1717*23(4*)94)*>-)49+531*212FCG461771*27*>HIJKLMM643)153*27.4)9-0>*)-NOP;.*1234;<1=46*947(-)4<03)1.75-74QNRESP126*947(-)4<061/473)-:4/49T89*U2NNP>)*6A*)3/-29V75+))423FCG461771*27*>W8XXX643)153*27.4)9-0E'(1717-55*6./17(494:42U(1/4(*/912,3*3-/.4)7*261/47-293)1.75*273-23E'(474>12912,7-)45*27173423U13(3(4NXP)49+531*212FCG461771*27>*+293*5*))47.*29U13(-NYP5*6<1249<1505/4-294;<1=46*947(-)4123(4,/*<-/(1,(7(1>3505/12,7542-)1*QB-7*28Z+/3*28-29B5[*2-/9GXNOTE@7946*273)-349123(47427131:130-2-/071783(17NNP)49+531*212FCG461771*27176-123-12494:42U(42+712,3(4\91)31473]4/453)15130,424)-31*2.)*>1/4123(4_@E'(473)-34,0*>125)4-712,4;<1=46*947(-)4U13(12-,1:42)4,1*25-23(4)4>*)4<4+7495*2>19423/0-7-3**/3*(4/.64433(-3)4,1*2V75-)<*2461771*2)49+531*2,*-/7E'(4+4731*2-)17478(*U4:4)8-<*+3(*U-)4,1*25-2*<3-123(4245477-)04;<1=46*947(-)43*<)12,-<*+33(49471)495-)<*2)49+531*24>>453Eab17312,)474-)5(7+,,473716./4642312,4;<1=47+<7190.)*,)-67-29<+1/912,12>)-73)+53+)4>*)5(-),12,-29.-)=12,Qc-+<*/9GXNdec174/1+7-29_:4277*2GXNfTEg2-)45423U(134.-.4)83(4.)47423-+3(*)7(-:44b./*)494b17312,4;<1=47+<7190-291254231:4.)*,)-67E'(17)4:14U5-2<4+749-7-)4>4)4254>*)94:4/*.12,>+3+)4.)*,)-67QB5h+4428B-5@)3(+)8-29F(4))0GXNSTEC3(4))474-)5(5*25/+9473(-3)49+512,:4(15/47.4497-29:*/+647-29<+1/912,.(0715-//074.-)-34912>)-73)+53+)45-2(4/.3*125)4-74505/12,Qi+4(/4)8jk375(18-29l1234)7GXNdTEa;<1=4)194)7(1.5*+/9-/7*<4425*+)-,493()*+,(16./46423-31*2*>-6+2151.-/4;<1=47(-)4.)*,)-687+5(-7*24.1/*34912D*73*5=j4)6-20Q\a/)*7a/453)15B*<1/13012D*73*5=]GXNYTE@2*3(4)643(*93*125)4-744;<1=46*947(-)45*+/9<43()*+,(-6+/31;6*9-/-..)*-5(E'(4m*7@2,4/47F*+230B43)*.*/13-2')-27.*)3-31*2@+3(*)130)45423/0+7491234)54.37+):4073*73+903(4jcj)49+531*2<424>13*>3)1.73(-35*6<12495*2:4231*2-/<1505/4-293)-126*947Q\i1505/4;D-1/')1.@2-/0717-29j)442(*+74j-7a61771*27D49+531*2Z*5+749_3+90]GXNNTE@7161/-)73+90>*5+712,*24;<1=4n3)-27133)1.75*+/9<4+749-7-216.43+73*>+2924U4;<1=412>)-73)+53+)4-3)-.193)-271373*.712*)94)3*125)4-744;<1=4)194)7(1.-6*2,3(*74)4+1)12,->1)7361/4n/-7361/47*/+31*2Ea;<1=47*>>4))4,1*27-24U*..*)3+21303*4>>4531:4/09161217(3(41)3)-27.*)3-31*25-)<*2>**3.)123E_+<73-231-/.*/1315-/U1//-294>>*)36-0<4)4+1)498(*U4:4)83*741o413E'(46*94/

Page 18: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#"$%"&�'"!"�(#�)#"*)+�*,!�'"+ ($-�!"-(,$#�#""�%'(#� ,%"$%(.+�#,�%'.%�.$�($*,!/"&�&"0(#(,$�0.$�1"�/.&"�%,�($0+)&"�"21(3"� !,/,%(,$�.#� .!%�,*�.�+.!-"!�#)(%"�,*�0.!1,$�"/(##(,$�!"&)0%(,$�($(%(.%(4"#5�� �

Page 19: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"! !#$!%�&'()*+,'-�./012)3-�2'(�4)'�.05),(6�789:6�;</=)�>,??@A/'B�C*,DA1�E2+�5)F)3)(�GHH�I�<@A�J,A�KF)*LD1)*)�/'�A1)�M6N6O�NA*))A+P3,B�MN&6�N)QA)?P)*�9R-�789:6�1AAQ+STT@+26+A*))A+P3,B6,*BT789:T8UT9RTP/=)I0,??@A/'BIB*,DA1I12+I3)F)3)(I,HHIP@AI',AI)F)*LD1)*)I/'IA1)I@I+T6�;</0L03)IV2/3�W*/Q�&'23L+/+�2'(�C*))'1,@+)�C2+�K?/++/,'+�V)(@0A/,'�X,0@+)(�NA@(L6O�78996�5,+�&'B)3)+�>,@'AL�.)A*,Q,3/A2'�W*2'+Q,*A2A/,'�&@A1,*/AL6�<3,'()3-�<)',YA-�>13,Z�./+Q)3,'-�2'(�[@3/2'�X)*B@+,'6�78996�;>L03)�.,*)�GHA)'�7�>,,3�(,D'�A1)�\32')A]S�@2'A/HL/'B�>G7�N2F/'B+�,H�>L03/'B6O�J,F)?P)*�78996�<@)13)*-�V23Q1-�W1,?2+�C_A+01/-�2'(�.)B12'�/'A)*+6�789a6�;.,F/'B�W,D2*(�&0A/F)�W*2'+Q,*A2A/,'S�E,D�\,3/0/)+�>2'�K'0,@*2B)�23=/'B�2'(�</0L03/'B6O�1AAQ+STT20A/F)3/F/'B*)+)2*016,*BT&0A/F)W*2F)3*)F/)D6�>2/*'+-�N6-�X6�<)1*)'(A-�b6�V2HH,-�>6�<)2@?,'A-�2'(�>6�4/)H)*6�789:6�;K3)0A*/0233LI&++/+A)(�</=)+S�\,A)'A/23�c?Q20A+�,'�W*2F)3�<)12F/,@*6O�W*2'+Q,*A2A/,'�V)+)2*01�\2*A�&S�\,3/0L�2'(�\*20A/0)�98d�eN)QA)?P)*fS�d7:gR76�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BT986989aTh6A*26789:68d688:6�;K3*,+�K3)0A*/0�.,P/3/AL�/'�V,+A,0=6O�789R6�V,+A,0=)*�NA*2i)'P21'�&C6�X/+1?2'-�K33/,A-�2'(�>1*/+A,Q1)*�>1)**L6�789a6�;KI</=)+�/'�A1)�.2/'+A*)2?S�V)F/)D/'B�2�b)02()�,H�V)+)2*016O�W*2'+Q,*A�V)F/)D+�da�e9fS�:7gU96�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BT98698j8T89RR9aR:6789k698aUU8:6�E2@P,3(-�E,3B)*6�789a6�;K>X�K�H,*�&336O�E/+)3/@+-�5)'2�/'+3,AA-�2'(�l+)�NF)'++,'6�789:6�;KI</=)�M+)�/'�ND)()'�g�>G�7�KHH)0A+�b@)�A,�.,(23�>12'B)�2'(�.@'/0/Q23�\*,?,A/,'�NA*2A)B/)+6O�[,@*'23�,H�>3)2')*�\*,(@0A/,'�9R9�e[2'@2*LfS�j9jg7R6�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BT986989aTh6h03)Q*,6789a68U69R96�[,')+-�W/?-�5@02+�E2*?+-�2'(�KF2�E)/')'6�789a6�;.,A/F)+-�\)*0)QA/,'+�2'(�KmQ)*/)'0)+�,H�K3)0A*/0�</0L03)�GD')*+�2'(�c?Q3/02A/,'+�H,*�E)23A1-�)33P)/'B�2'(�.,P/3/AL6O�[,@*'23�,H�W*2'+Q,*A�C),B*2Q1L�kd�e.2LfS�R9gRU6�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BT986989aTh6hA*2'B),6789a68R688a6�.20&*A1@*-�[6-�46�>3/HA,'-�[6�<*,201-�2'(�<6�N12'(,P/36�789j6�;K'F/*,'?)'A23�2'(�Kn@/AL�N0)'2*/,+�H,*�&3A)*'2A/F)�X@)3�o)1/03)�GD')*+1/Q�2'(�M+)�/'�A1)�\,*A32'(�V)B/,'6O�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BTWVK>IVVI99a:6�.20&*A1@*-�[,1'-�./012)3�E2*Q,,3-�b2'/)3�N01)Q=)-�2'(�>1*/+A,Q1)*�>1)**L6�789j6�;&�J,*A1�&?)*/02'�N@*F)L�,H�K3)0A*/0�</0L03)�GD')*+6O�W*2'+Q,*A2A/,'�V)+)2*01�2'(�K(@02A/,'�>)'A)*6�1AAQ+STT(,/6,*BT9869k:a8TA*)069U:6�.20&*A1@*-�[,1'-�J/01,32+�4,P)3-�[)''/H)*�b/33-�2'(�p2=2*/�.@?@'/6�789:6�;KF23@2A/,'�,H�2'�K3)0A*/0�</=)�\/3,A�\*,h)0A6O�.2+,'-�[20,P-�5)D�X@3A,'-�2'(�p2')�.0b,'23(6�789k6�;&�C3,P23�E/B1�N1/HA�>L03/'B�N0)'2*/,S�W1)�\,A)'A/23�H,*�b*2?2A/0233L�c'0*)2+/'B�</0L03)�2'(�KI</=)�M+)�/'�>/A/)+�&*,@'(�A1)�,*3(-�D/A1�K+A/?2A)(�K')*BL-�>G7-�2'(�>,+A�c?Q20A+6O�c'+A/A@()�H,*�W*2'+Q,*A2A/,'�q�b)F)3,Q?)'A�\,3/0L-�M'/F)*+/AL�,H�>23/H,*'/2-�b2F/+6�

Page 20: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$$%&� '!()$*&�+,(%� )!-./(#.&�)%0�1(.'2/,3($.�1($..45�67895�:;,<�=>?'@$�A%!$%/'B$�C.,D.)E2�-.$�F2$0�/,�=G3)%0�/($� ).@$/H�-�I('/$�C)3$.5J�K.)%23,./)/',%�L$2$).!(�)%0�=0#!)/',%�1$%/$.5�C,3,B'!(&�M)/)*'$&�=*'N)O$/(�P,.0,%&�Q($%4'%D�R(),&�S)%�T'%D&�S#%2('�I)%D&�)%0�R#2)%�;)%045�678U5�:=G3$.'$%!$2�,V�=*$!/.'!�?'!4!*$�F2$.2�'%�/($�R)!.)E$%/,&�1)*'V,.%')�-.$)5J�K.)B$*�?$()B',#.�)%0�R,!'$/4�8�W6XH�YZ[UU5�(//32H\\0,'5,.D\875878]\5/O25678Y587577]5�L$3*,D*$&� '!()$*�-5&�)%0�_$<'2� 5�#*/,%5�678U5�:-�P*,O)*�;'D(�R('V/�R!$%).',H�AE3)!/2�-%0�C,/$%/')*�,.� ,.$�C#O*'!�K.)%23,./&�I)*@'%D&�-%0�14!*'%D�I'/(�_,<$.�1).�F2$5J�A%2/'/#0$�V,.�K.)%23,./)/',%�a�b$B$*,3E$%/�C,*'!4&�F%'B$.2'/4�,V�1)*'V,.%')&�b)B'25�L#0,*3(&�1(.'2/')%5�678U)5�:b$!.$)2'%D�1c6�?4�A%!.$)2'%D�?'!4!*$�F2$5J�;)EO#.D�F%'B$.2'/4�,V�K$!(%,*,D4�WKF;;X&�A%2/'/#/$�V,.�K.)%23,./�C*)%%'%D�)%0�_,D'2/'!25�(//3H\\<<<5E,O'*$67675$#\V'*$)0E'%\E)'%3)D$\0,<%*,)02\!,6/,,*\1c6dE,O'*$6767530V5�eee5�678UO5�: ,O'*$�6767�1c6�=2/'E)/',%�K,,*5J�(//3H\\<<<5E,O'*$67675$#\V'*$)0E'%\E)'%3)D$\0,<%*,)02\!,6/,,*\1c6>K,,*dE,O'*$6767d#3*,)05G*2G5�I$'22&� )./'%&�C$/$.�b$@@$.&�-*O$./,� ,.,&�;).)*0�R!(,*N&�)%0� )./'%�f5�C)/$*5�678g5�:c%�/($�=*$!/.'V'!)/',%�,V�L,)0�K.)%23,./)/',%�[�-�L$B'$<�,V�/($�=%B'.,%E$%/)*&�=!,%,E'!&�)%0�R,!')*�C$.V,.E)%!$�,V�=*$!/.'!�K<,>I($$*$.25J�K.)%23,./)/',%�L$2$).!(�C)./�bH�K.)%23,./�)%0�=%B'.,%E$%/�U8�Wb$!$EO$.XH�YUh[]]5�(//32H\\0,'5,.D\875878]\5/.05678g579577Z5�� �

Page 21: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!!"#$%&�'()*+,�-.(/*0*/�123(4*,(�%,0+5627*+,�89:;<=>?9@�=@A�>B?:�?@C9BD=>?9@�C9B�89B><=@A�E=F�>=GH@�CB9D�IBHJ9@�KH>B9LF�MNOP�QHJ?9@=<�RB=@F?>�8<=@�SQR8T�U::H@A?V�W�C9B�>XH�:<=@@?@J�=BH=�HVY<;A?@J�Z<=BG�Z9;@>[\�]U�RB?:�?@C9BD=>?9@�CB9D�>XH�QR8�?F�:B9_?AHA�C9B�=_HB=JH�EHHGA=[�SU] T�>B?:F���abcde�fg�hijk�lmnopqbjiom�lmrsj�tenimijiomu�hbjevopk� webuspe� xmij� ykqcod�yospze�Z?>[�W@C9BD=>?9@� 89:;<=>?9@� {� |� QR8�U::H@A?V�W�U_J�EHHGA=[�>9>=<�:HBF9@�>B?:F� >B?:F� }� QR8�U::H@A?V�W�U_J�>B?:F�:HB�A=[� {�:HB�:HBF9@� }~��� }|�U_J�>B?:�<H@J>X� D?<HF�>B?:� �~� QR8�U::H@A?V�W���52,3.+5727*+,��+�(�$(72*43�abcde��g�apbmuropjbjiom��nniziemzk�lmrsj�tenimijiomu�hbjevopk� webuspe� xmij� ykqcod� yospze�H>=?<F�SY=BT�

ZIM�:HB�J=<�C;H<� J�ZIM�J=<� ���� H?=J9_�SY=B�9@�HD?FF?9@F�C9B��ONT�U_J�C;H<�HY9@9D[� D:J� ���� �@_?B9@DH@>=<�=@A���;?>[��YH@=B?9F�C9B�U<>HB@=>?_H��;H<��HX?Y<H�IE@HBFX?:�=@A��FH�?@�>XH�89B><=@A�QHJ?9@�SK=YUB>X;B�H>�=<�MNOPT�U] �8=FFH@JHB��HX?Y<H�8HBF9@�RB?:F� >B?:F� }~���� QR8�U::H@A?V�W�U] �8=FFH@JHB��HX?Y<H�RB?:F� >B?:F� }~���� QR8�U::H@A?V�W�U_J�9YY;:=@Y[�B=>H� 8HBF9@�_HX?Y<H� ��� }~���}~����U_J�:HBF9@�C;H<�HY9@9D[� U_J�:HBF9@�D?<HF�:HB�J=<<9@� ����� ��������H>=?<F�S:;�<?Y�>B=@F?>T� U_J�HD?FF?9@F� J�ZIM�:HBF9@�D?<HF� �������� Z=<Y;<=>HA�SFHH��H<9ET�H>=?<F�SH��?GHT�U_J�HD?FF?9@F�D?<H�SCB9D�H<HY>B?Y?>[�JH@HB=>?9@�?@��]�BHJ?9@T� J�ZIM���D?<H� �������� �8U�H�B?A���]88�]�ZZ��9B>XEHF>�

Page 22: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"�#$%&'(�)"*+,')-�./01230�045665786�901�901678�45:0�56�;2:;<:2=0>�?260>�78�@15A0=B6�CD71=:28>B6�1035782:�=12865=�2308;EF�45G�7H�47>06�28>�H<0:�67<1;06�I053J=0>�?E�901678�45:06�=12/0:0>�901�47>0K�L=�42M06�<60�7H�=J0�H7::7I583�>2=2N�O�P<0:�Q60N�P0>012:�@12865=�.>45856=12=578�P<0:�28>�R8013E�>2=2�H71�H56;2:�E021�STUV�W�X57>5060:�56�<60>�?7=J�?E�?<6�28>�Y06=65>0�RG91066�Z01/5;0�CYRZF[�67�=7=2:�?57>5060:�/2:<0�35/08�?E�P@.�56�69:5=�?0=I008�X<6�28>�YRZ�2;;71>583�=7�901678�45:06�=12/0:0>�12=57K�W�\53J=�125:�C?7=J�D71=:28>�Z=100=;21�28>�A.]F�08013E�<60�;78=15?<=5786�210�917/5>0>�609212=0:E�?E�=J0�[email protected]�O�D01678A5:06N�P0>012:�@12865=�.>45856=12=578�Z01/5;0�>2=2�H71�H56;2:�E021�STUV�O� 0J5;:0�A5:06N�P0>012:�@12865=�.>45856=12=578�Z01/5;0�>2=2�H71�H56;2:�E021�STUV�O�R45665786�901�<85=�H<0:N�052K37/�H71�:5_<5>�H<0:6�28>�P53:57 5�0=�2:K�STUa�H71�D71=:28>�0:0;=15;5=E�308012=578�045665786�O�@7=2:�3�bcS�045==0>�901�E021N�;2:;<:2=0>�defgh�i�jklm nopq�orpsturruvwr�xpy�owuz�{opq�O�3�bcS�901�90167845:0�=12/0:0>�CDA@FN�;2:;<:2=0>�i|}dm defgh�i�jkl|g~~��i���}�h�~�O�./01230�045665786�901�90167845:0N�I053J=0>�2/01230�?E�DA@�g�i�i|}dm� |g~~��i���}�h�~� i|}dtv�p� |g~~��i���}�h�~tv�p �� �

Page 23: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$�%&$'(�)*(#'$+�,-./0�12�3450�67089:98�;<7=>�?0:9<9>94<@�A->0B4CD� 30-@=C0� E<9>� 6DF.4/� 64=C80�GHIJK�LMKNO� P�QJR�ORNMS� P� TUV� WXY�ZMM[\IN]��P�Q_QKN\�ORNMS� P� TUa�P�MbcKNQ�ORJ\SNO�ORNMS� P� TUd�P�eJKfN\�ORNMS� P� TUg�P�[hcNf[�ORNMS� P� TUi� ZSSbj[I�k�N\NONJKK_�GHIJK�Jl[RJ[�INSOJ\Q[�

Zl�QJR�ORNM�K[\Om� jNK[S� nVo� WXY�ZMM[\IN]��Zl�Q_QKN\�ORNM�K[\Om� jNK[S� nao� WXY�ZMM[\IN]���pqr�stuv�wtnvx�yz{|vnv}pqr�y~U{n�stuv�yzt�x �Zl�MbcKNQ�ORJ\SNO�ORNM�K[\Om� jNK[S� ndo� QJKQbKJO[I�JS�e[NmO[I�Jl[RJ[�H��ORJ\SNO�J\I�MJRJORJ\SNO�ORNMS��RHj���ZL����X�W[NH\���SbRl[_�IJOJ�Zl�eJKfN\�ORNM�K[\Om�jNK[S� ng���� QJKQbKJO[I�JS�e[NmO[I�Jl[RJ[�H��eJKfN\�ORNMS��RHj���ZL����X�W[NH\���SbRl[_�IJOJ�Zl�[hcNf[�ORNM�K[\Om� jNK[S� nio� Z��HROm�Zj[RNQJ\�LbRl[_�H���K[QORNQ��NQ_QK[��e\[RS��GJQZROmbR�[O�JK���k������JQObJK�lJKb[�eJS�����jNK[S�M[R�ORNM��mHe[l[R�OH�c[�QH\S[RlJONl[��mJK��OmNS�lJKb[�eJS�bS[I�������jNK[S���h�Nf[�GHI[�W[MKJQ[j[\O�LMKNO�c_�ORNMS� P�QJR�ORNMS�R[MKJQ[I� P� TzV� Z��HROm�Zj[RNQJ\�LbRl[_�H���K[QORNQ��NQ_QK[��e\[RS��GJQZROmbR�[O�JK���k����P�Q_QKN\�ORNMS�R[MKJQ[I� P� Tza�P�MbcKNQ�ORJ\SNO�ORNMS�R[MKJQ[I� P� Tzd�P�eJKfN\�ORNMS�R[MKJQ[I� P� Tzg��h�Nf[�GHI[�W[MKJQ[j[\O�LMKNO�c_�INSOJ\Q[� P�INSOJ\Q[�R[MKJQ[I�OmJO�eJS�ORJl[K[I�c_�QJR� P� Tz�V� Z��HROm�Zj[RNQJ\�LbRl[_�H���K[QORNQ��NQ_QK[��e\[RS��GJQZROmbR�[O�JK���k����P�INSOJ\Q[�R[MKJQ[I�OmJO�eJS�ORJl[K[I�c_�Q_QKN\� P� Tz�a�P�INSOJ\Q[�R[MKJQ[I�OmJO�eJS�ORJl[K[I�c_�ORJ\SNO� P� Tz�d�P�INSOJ\Q[�R[MKJQ[I�OmJO�eJS�ORJl[K[I�c_�eJKfN\� P� Tz�g��

Page 24: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$%�&'(%�)*+#,� -./01�23�45/671�89:;<�=1>696<6?9@�A.<1B?CD� E1.@;C1� F96<� GDH/?0� G?;CI1�JKKLMNO�PK�LQRSTL�UVPWPNSPX� JYULMNLZ�SXMVL[OL�PK�LQRSTL�NVSUO� \� ] _� aLON�b[cdLO�JYULMNLZ�SXMVL[OL�PK�[bLV[eL�LQRSTL�NVSU�cLXeNf� \� ] gh� aLON�b[cdLO��ijjkl*,#'mjn�o�pLq�WPZL�Of[VL�[XZ�XLq�NPN[c�ULVOPX�WScLO�NV[bLcLZ�SO�R[OLZ�PX�NfL�WPZL�[XZ�ZSON[XML�VLUc[MLWLXN�Z[N[�KPdXZ�SX�r[MsVNfdV�LN�[ct�uvwxt�o�pdWRLV�PK�NVSUO�[XZ�XdWRLV�PK�ULVOPX�WScLO�NV[bLcLZ�[VL�fLcZ�MPXON[XNt�o�JQRSTL�NVSU�cLXeNfO�[VL�LYULMNLZ�NP�VLW[SX�MPXON[XN�y] ghz{|�o�JQRSTL�[bLV[eL�NVSU�cLXeNf�SO�f[cK�NfL�b[cdL�KPdXZ�SX�r[MsVNfdV�LN�[ct�uvwx�NP�NLON�OLXOSNSbSN}�yghz~���|�o��XSNS[c�LQRSTL�WPZL�Of[VL�R}�NVSUO�SO�v\�y]_z{��o�rPZL�Of[VL�VLZdMNSPX�PK�XPXQLQRSTL�WPZLO�SO�cSXL[V�[XZ�UVPUPVNSPX[c�NP�LQRSTL�WPZL�Of[VL�SXMVL[OL�yStLt��pP�[O}WUNPNSM�RLf[bSPV�OSWdc[NLZ|�o�rPZL�[bLV[eL�NVSU�cLXeNf�KPV�WPZLO�PNfLV�Nf[X�LQRSTL�[VL�[RcL�NP�Mf[XeL��[XZ�SO�VLM[cMdc[NLZ�[O�g���_���o���u�LWSOOSPXO�[VL�M[cMdc[NLZ�dOSXe�N[XT�NP�qfLLc�PV�LcLMNVSMSN}�eLXLV[NSPX�Uf[OL�[XZ�ZPLO�XPN�dOL�cSKLM}McL�LWSOOSPX�V[NLO�yStLt��ZPLO�XPN�[MMPdXN�KPV�V[q�W[NLVS[cO�UVPMdVLWLXN��W[XdK[MNdVL��W[SXNLX[XML��PV�ZSOUPO[c|t�o��[cTSXe�[XZ�RSTSXe�[VL�[OOdWLZ�NP�f[bL��LVP�eVLLXfPdOL�e[O�LWSOOSPXOt�o��L�LYMcdZL�cSKLM}McL�SWU[MNO�PK�W[VeSX[c�KPPZ�UVPZdMNSPX�KPV�[cc�[MNSbL�WPZLOt��o��L�LYMcdZL�[cc�VLMVL[NSPX�NVSU�WScLO�KVPW�[X[c}OSO��KPMdOSXe�PXc}�PX�dNScSN[VS[X�WScLO�NV[bLcLZt�����+�k+�,#'mjn�afSO�OLMNSPX�UVPbSZLO�[�UOLdZP�MPZL�ZLOMVSRSXe�NfL�WLNfPZ�dOLZ�NP�M[cMdc[NL��ra�Mf[XeLO�[XZ�����VLZdMNSPXOt�afL�O[WL�WLNfPZ�SO�dOLZ�R}�NfL�LYMLc�NPPc�[XZ�NfL���MPZL��fPqLbLV�NfL���MPZL�UVPbSZLO�SNLV[NSbL�KdXMNSPX[cSN}�PbLV�[�V[XeL�PK�LQRSTL�WPZL�Of[VL�b[cdLOt�� �

Page 25: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$�%&�'()$�*+#,-�!.)�),*-!./$�-0!1$#$)�/!#/2#!-,(.�)$3,.,-,(.*�433$/-�(3�$5",6$�+0(7(-,(.�'$!*20$� '()$� 8!#/2#!-,(.� 9(-$*� :.,-*�;<=>?�@ABACDE�FB<�GCHI�JBKG� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� UVW�XYUZ[\Y]UV� � A<=>?�_O=RG�;<CGDDGK�J=DG?�@ABACDE�� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� aVWUVYaVb� � J=DG?�_O=RG�cBKCD�?>D=A�d�OT�A<CGDDGK�J=DG?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� ]aVW aVeaV� � d�_O=RG�fGQ�cBKCD�g>D=A�@OT�A<=>?E� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� ]UVhW]UVi]jUkY]lV� � d���_O=RG� ]UmkW]Ukn]jUk� � d�fGQ�PNJOG<�BF�A<=>?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� UVhW]UVhY�UV� � A<=>?�_O=RG� UmkWo UVY�]Umk�LICPSG�=P�PNJOG<�BF�A<=>?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� jUVWUVhiUV� � A<=>?�_O=RG�pG<CSG�;<=>�DGPSAI�PGQ� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� amVqqqWaVhUVh�� � J=DG?�_O=RG� amkqqqWr]jakbnstt]uYakb� �;<CGDGK�c=DG?�PGQ� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� aVhW]aVhYo aV� � J=DG?�_O=RG� amkWUkhYakhb� �fGQ�JBKCD�?>D=A�d�OT�A<CGDDGK�J=DG?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� ]amVW]aVn]jaV� � d�_O=RG� ]amkW amkeaV� vG�HCP�N?G�eaV�OGHCN?G�ABACD�J=DG?�A<CGDGK�=?�HBP?G<GK�OGAQGGP�B<=S=PCD�CPK�PGQ�?HGPC<=B?�LICPSG�=P�JBKCD�?>D=A�d�OT�A<CGDDGK�J=DG?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� ]jaVW]jakY]lwV� � d�_O=RG� ]jakW]amki]ak� �LICPSG�=P�A<CGDDGK�J=DG?� LC<M�>NOD=H�A<CP?=AM�QCDR=PSM�HTHD=PS� jaVWaVhiaV� � J=DG?�_O=RG�

Page 26: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"#$�%&'� ()!#�$*+,,+(-,�.!#./#!)+(-�011$.),�(1�$2"+3$�45(*()+(-�60*+,,+(-,7�8$!,/5$� 9!#./#!)+(-� :()$,� ;-+),�<=>?@�A?BC=D�EFGHHG=DH�IB=F�?@@�F=JEH� K�LMNOPQNRSOPPTUOVNWVXOMXSYYYYPTUWVZOMZ[YYYYPTU�� \?@]GD�?DJ�A=D_ED>G=D?@�AA@GD�?BE�A=DHGJEBEJ�a�EFGHHG=D�?A>G_G>GEH� �b�Kcdefg�<=>?@�A?BC=D�EFGHHG=DH�IB=F�?@@�F=JEH�h�iGFEDHG=D?@�jD?@HGH� XklmL nnloO nloSZpqrs�tuoZqO XvwxnOyz{|}~���Vz|Wyz{|}~���Vz|O nSZpqrs�tuoZqO Xvwxn�����Vz|OntuoZO Xvwxn�� � ������������������������������������������V�Z�����?@A�@?>E�>=>?@�>B?_E@@EJ�FG@EH�=I�?@@�F=JEH��Vs�����?@A�@?>E�E�CG]E�DE�� EBAED>�F=JE�H @G>�C�>BG H�¡b�Z�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�=BGGD?@�E�CG]E� EBAED>�F=JE�H @G>��¡bZ�?DJ�E�CG]E�E£ EA>EJ� EBAED>?E� =GD>�A¤?DE�GD�F=JE�H @G>�¡¥bZ�¦���?@A�@?>E�DE��D�FCEB�=I�E�CG]E�>BG H�b�Z�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�H�F�=I�?@@�>BG H��bs�?DJ�>¤E�E�CG]E�DE�� EBAED>�F=JE�H @G>�C�>BG H�¡b�Z�§���?@A�@?>E�DE��?_EB?E�E�CG]E�>BG �@ED>¤�V�ZYYY�GI�>BG �@ED>¤�GDABE?HE�H EAGIGEJ©�A?D�CE�@EI>�?>�aª�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I� EBAED>�E�CG]E�?_EB?E�>BG �@ED>¤�GDABE?HE�¡¥VZR�?DJ�=BGGD?@�E�CG]E�?_EB?E�>BG �@ED>¤�VZR�«���?@A�@?>E�E�CG]E�DE��>=>?@�¬­<�V�Z�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�DE��?_EB?E�E�CG]E�>BG �@ED>¤�V�ZYYY�?DJ�DE��D�FCEB�=I�E�CG]E�>BG H�b�Z�®�������������������������������°�±����²�����������������³�����������������?@A�@?>E�=BGGD?@�>=>?@�FG@EH�>B?_E@EJ�C�E�CG]E�VZ�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�=BGGD?@�D�FCEB�=I�E�CG]E�>BG H�bZ�?DJ�=BGGD?@�E�CG]E�?_EB?E�>BG �@ED>¤�VZR�����?@A�@?>E�=BGGD?@�>=>?@�FG@EH�>B?_E@EJ�C�F=JE�D�Vs�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�=BGGD?@�D�FCEB�=I�F=JE�D�>BG H�bs�?DJ�=BGGD?@�F=JE�D�?_EB?E�>BG �@ED>¤�VsR�¦���?@A�@?>E�>¤E�=BGGD?@�F=J?@�H @G>�C�>B?_E@@EJ�FG@EH�=I�E�CG]EH�¡VZ�?��¢�DA>G=D�=I�=BGGD?@�>=>?@�FG@EH�>B?_E@EJ�C�E�CG]E�VZ�?DJ�>¤E�H�F�=I�FG@EH�>B?_E@EJ�C�?@@�F=JEH��Vs�§���?@A�@?>E�>¤E�=BGGD?@�F=J?@�H @G>�C�>B?_E@@EJ�FG@EH�=I�F=JE�D�¡Vs�

Page 27: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!�"#$%&'($�()�(*'+'$ ,�&(& ,�-',./�&* 0.,.1�23�-(1.�$�45� $1�&6.�/#-�()�-',./�&* 0.,.1�23� ,,�-(1./�745�8!�9 ,%#, &.�&6.�$.:�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�.<2'=./�>4?@� !�"#$%&'($�()�$.:�&(& ,�-',./�&* 0.,,.1�23�.<2'=.�4?@� $1�/#-�()�-',./�&* 0.,,.1�23� ,,�-(1./�745�A!�9 ,%#, &.�&6.�%6 $+.�'$�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�.<2'=./�>B4@� !�"#$%&'($�()�$.:�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�.<2'=./�>4?@� $1�(*'+'$ ,�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�.<2'=./�>4@�C!�9 ,%#, &.�&6.�%6 $+.�'$�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�>B45� !�"#$%&'($�()�%6 $+.�'$�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�.<2'=./�>B4@� $1�;.*%.$&�*.;, %.1�-',./�)(*�-(1.�$�>DE5�F!�9 ,%#, &.�$.:�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�>4?5� !�"#$%&'($�()�(*'+'$ ,�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�>45� $1�%6 $+.�'$�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�>B45�G!�9 ,%#, &.�$.:�&* 0.,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�45H� !�"#$%&'($�()�$.:�-(1 ,�/;,'&�23�&* 0.,,.1�-',./�()�-(1.�$�>45H� $1�/#-�()�-',./�&* 0.,,.1�23� ,,�-(1./�745�IJKLMNO�PJMPQMJLR�RSTKKTUVK�W!�9 ,%#, &.�&6.�&(& ,�1 ',3�% *2($�.-'//'($/�()�; //.$+.*�&* $/;(*& &'($�/.%&(*�X� !�"#$%&'($�()�9YZ�;.*�+ ,,($�()�% *�)#.,�[\]� 0.* +.�;.*/($�)#.,�.%($(-3�\___]�&(& ,�1'/& $%.�&* 0.,.1�23�% */�4?\]�&(& ,�1'/& $%.�&* 0.,.1�23�&* $/'&�4?a]� 0.* +.�9YZ�;.*�&* $/'&�;.*/($�-',.�[a____]�&(& ,�1'/& $%.�&* 0.,.1�23�.<2'=./�4?@]� $1� 0.* +.�9YZ�;.*�.<2'=.�-',.�[@b____��� �

Page 28: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!!"#"$%&'�()*+'#*�,"-+.)*��/01234�56�7894�:;<34�=>�?30@:�A7BCD�E;<F14�@43�4G=0H4�I894�:;<34�=>�?30@�@43E4F?<14�@80F?�0FE34<:4���/01234�J6�KLM�4I0::08F:�E;<F14�@43�4G=0H4�I894�:;<34�=>�?30@�@43E4F?<14�@80F?�0FE34<:4�

Page 29: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

!"!#!$%!�&'()*�++�,-./'0.1�*1/02'/*1�-3�/4*�'5*6'7*�7�89:�;*6�20)*�<*20110-.=�6'/*1�3-6�*>(0?*1�('1*@�-.�)-,'/0-.A�B',4�)-,'/0-.�0.�/4*�/'()*�,-66*1;-.@1�C0/4�'�6*70-.�-.�/4*�2';�0.�D07E6*�FA�B>(0?*1�@-�.-/�*20/�89:�/4*21*)5*1G�4-C*5*6�/4*�;-C*6�7*.*6'/0-.�;)'./1�/4'/�1E;;)H�/4*�*)*,/60,0/H�/-�,4'67*�/4*�('//*6H�@-G�'.@�/4E1�'�,'6(-.�,-1/�-3�*>(0?*�@01/'.,*�/6'5*)*@�,'.�(*�,'),E)'/*@�I')(*0/�12'))�,-2;'6*@�/-�'E/-2-(0)*1JA�&401�5')E*�5'60*1�(H�6*70-.�(*,'E1*�*',4�1E(6*70-.�E1*1�'�E.0KE*�20L/E6*�-3�3E*)�1-E6,*1A�M-6/)'.@�3'))1�C0/40.�/4*�NOMM�1E(6*70-.A�PQRST�UUV�WXRYZT�W[Y\\Y]\�_QT�Ra�b]cTd�eTTdQY]�fgRdThY]�iWbj�TXhdYkl�jmd]a[�fgRdThY]�nQ[T� W[Y\\Y]�_QT�ih�opqr[YSTl�stuv� sw88�s)'1?'�u60@� xAyz{�st|w� sw88�|01,*))'.*-E1� {A}}x�s~N|� OB88�w-E/4C*1/� }AxF+�8s|�� OB88�8')03-6.0'� {A�zz�B�8&� B�89&�s))� }AF��D�88� D�88�s))� }Azy}���|w� ��88�|01,*))'.*-E1� xAz}:���9s� ��88�9'4E� +:AF{x�|�9B� |�9�B'1/� +:AFzx�|�9O� |�9�O*1/� �A{{z�NBOB� NM88�N*C�B.7)'.@� �A:+��NOMM� OB88�N-6/4C*1/� �A�yF�N�8O� NM88�N�8�O*1/,4*1/*6� �A}zx�N���� NM88��-.7��1)'.@� xAx}z�N��M� NM88��;1/'/*�N�� :A:+F��D8B� �D8�B'1/� FA}y���D8|� �D8�|0,407'.� �AF}:��D8O� �D8�O*1/� �A{zz��|Ms� OB88��-,?0*1� +yA{y��wMN9� wMM�N-6/4� +yAz���wMw9� wMM�w-E/4� �A{�:�w�|�� wB�8�|0110110;;0��'))*H� zA{y{�w�|O� wB�8�|0@C*1/� +:A+�{�w�w9� wB�8�w-E/4� xA+�z�w�&�� wB�8�&*..*11**��'))*H� xA�:z�w��8� wB�8��0670.0'�8'6-)0.'� zAyz{�

Page 30: The E-Bike Potential: Estimating the Effect of E-Bikes on ...

������������������ ��������� ���������� � ��������������������������������� �

� !"#$%�&'�()!*%+�,*-*%.�/01%$�2%)%$-*!0)�,#3$%"!0).�4%25678�


Recommended