Coffee and ClimateTrouble brewing

Jeffrey Sachs, James RisingTim Foreman, John Simmons, Manuel Brahm

Global Coffee Forum, October 1, 2015

A global perspective

Arabica producersRobusta producers

Mixed producersExports from consumers

The network of global coffee trade

Three scales of impacts

Suita

bilit

y

Prod

uctio

nVa

riabi

lity

Long-term trendDecadal variabilityInterannual variability

Climate change: Temperature

The coffee belt is warming: +2.1° C (1.7° – 2.5°)

Can coffee move 600 km from the poles, or 380 m up? Extremes will get become extreme

Climate change: Precipitation

Small, uncertain increase in rainfall: +1.7% (-0.1 – 3.2%)

Extremes will get more extreme

Driest month losing 2 – 12% of precipitation

Suitability inputsTemperatures Precipitations

Soil Properties Elevation

Urban Regions Protected Areas

Current suitability Arabica suitability

Robusta suitability

Urban Protected Suitable (~potential yield)

Future Arabica Suitability

Changes in suitability

Statistical confidence

Final suitability

Changes in Arabica suitability

Changes in Robusta suitability

El Niño is coming

Precipitation changes during the 1997/98 event (American Meteorological Society, 1998).

Impact on prices Historical price rise of 30% after an El Niño

Projection for 2015-16

Empirical Model: Brazil

Empirical Model: Global

Changes in yields: Brazil +2°

Changes in 2050 Different model for each country, based on

historical data

Loss temperatures vs. current averages

The future of coffee

Variability in prices

Prices paid to farmers

Explaining farmer prices

Explained by international prices Explained by local production

Retail prices

Thank you! And thanks to Illy Coffee and Lavazza.

Extra slides: Climate

Changes in the tropics

Temperature variability

Precipitation variability

Extra slides: Tools

(Grey) Literature on Coffee Producing Regions

A new coffee database

Arabica harvest area

Robusta harvest area

Extra slides: Suitability

Suitability schematic

Extra slides: Variability

Historical El Niños

PCA 1

PCA 2

PCA 3

Extra slides: Production

Brazil production density

Effect in elevation

Area by elevationRobusta

Arabica

Changes with elevation

GDD model by country

Yields are changing Trends in yields, as changes per year

Many reasons for this

Extra slides: Market

Real 2000 USD Prices

Producer country exports

Consumer country exports

Explaining demand

Explained by previous yearExplained by retail prices

Producer Costs and Inferred Markups

To farmers Inferred markup

Consumer prices and inferred markups

To farmers Inferred distribution Remaining markup